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Now that it has entered the gap, fill at 3810 likely today.
No crash tomorrow.
Good points, need a balance day tomorrow to regain energy for further down next week.
Probably a small down day tomorrow.
Good points, thanks. Tomorrow's close is important.
Close at weekly lows and we have a shooting star weekly candle. It will take a lot from Santa to plough through then next week to dig out of the hole. What follows usually after a shooting star candle is a BIG RED CANDLE.
5 target appears to be the gap fill around 3800-3810 tomorrow likely.
Thanks Jerry, would appreciate it if you could share Shane's thoughts on if FED has gone from qe to qt when you get the update.
Given the impulsive move down today, seriously doubt we will see 3900+ for the rest of this year.
Didn't say it was like 2018. Was pointing out that there are years like 2018 and even 2007/2008 when markets were generally weak during last 2-3 weeks of December. Santa needs a break once in a while :)
Usual FED +/- 3.5% day today ... a day late.
140 point down day to 3855 likely today.
3862 50dma likely magnet
We will this time :)
Cyclesfan 2 month (40-42 TD) cycles playing out nicely.
6/14 - 8/16 : UP
8/16 - 10/13 : DOWN
10/13 - 12/13 : UP
12/13 - 2/? : DOWN
Possible. 10 sma has crossed over 20 sma down confirming new downtrend.
Not necessary, go back and check 2018 Christmas!
I never left the bear camp lol
Still think lower lows ahead in Q1
Sell into close likely to 393x
looks like it ... real play will be after lunch on where the close is.
$SPX Net S/A $Gamma, today's expiration#Gamma is mostly negative
— Point-Blank-Trading (@PointBlank_Algo) December 9, 2022
3900 is the main negative stack, 4000 is the main positive
3975-3985 is inmediate resistance
Large OI, both puts and calls.
3950 is a strike of interest
P/C ratio: 2.17
Charts from @TradeVolatility #SPX $ES https://t.co/6cmG7zvwvM pic.twitter.com/tWisPSWRgZ
yep agree. Next week is fireworks ... up or down!
Straddle for CPI and FOMC days is better bet than PPI .... should be range bound around +/- 1% day today.
With a close above 3960 today, certainly possible to test/overshoot the 20 sma at 3990-4000 tomorrow. Closing below/above it will be key.
Agree on somewhat muted reaction to PPI in the past 3 months that has only caused 1-2% moves (9/14, 10/12 & 11/15) whereas the CPI has moved markets 2-4%.
Agree on close today is key, but looks like a weak bounce that could not get to 20 sma.
Hold overnight is not is key ... That huge CPI explosion gap on 11/10 at 3818 will be a BIG magnet to fill this week.
Yes, bears have taken back control as I expected. Daily 20 sma lost, so test of lower bollinger band should be next.
Ok thanks Jerry. 20 sma key support coming up ... either it holds or we jump the creek in the morning.
UVIX up only 3% when VIX is up 7%, anyone know why? Isn't is 2x vix?
Totally agree ... fight for daily 200 sma is key that will determine trend this week.
BIG SHORT throws in the towel too
— Michael Burry Archive (@BurryArchive) December 4, 2022
Fight for 200dma ... close above or below?
yep, was positioned for that possible "black swan" event.
Maybe I said boring too early
may now get that pullback (on fumes) to your 20dma 3909 target today itself. 100dma also there at 3918
3980 daily 10sma should be resistance for today
yep, better to watch the US - Iran soccer match this afternoon :)
going to be a boring balancing day waiting for the BIG POWELL Show tomorrow ... Fireworks!
yeah, I'm a patient medium term trader, so not bothered by these daily wild swings which are only going to get MUCH WILDER ahead :)
I think you meant monthly 50dma held nicely and rally next to 20dma which is certainly possible if we get past any black swans next month .... let's see what Powell says on Nov 30th and how the China "unrest" situation unfolds. Dollar zoom zoom is also possible.
gdl perfect contrarian indicator
Saw some posts this weekend where he mentioned no selloff and rally to further highs ... that probably means that the Friday 4034 TOP is it and will not be surpassed for more than a few months and a selloff is imminent! :)
New Bull Market
starts when Monthly SPX closes CONVINVINGLY above 10sma which is currently at 4052. Jump LONG with both feet and become BULL if 2nd monthly close above 10sma.
yeah, if fridays lows gets taken out, should get 38xx today.
Bears smell blood :)
OPEX last hour is always "interesting" to see where they pin the close to.
3950 seems to be a magnet
$SPX 0DTE scanner and $GEX chart from @TradeVolatility
— Point-Blank-Trading (@PointBlank_Algo) November 18, 2022
3950 is a strike with a lot of attention
The strikes with the highest volume changes are put 3930 and call 3955.
3950 and 4000 are the strikes to pay attention to$SPY $ES #SPY #ES_F #SPX #trading #options #daytrading pic.twitter.com/RPlq8wl9hN