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This numbers has no real meaning...
Big hedge funds do not invest few pennies to make money.. when they decide they will take it over.. They have very little time left to really buy HYMCZ warrants.. Unless we see them acquiring all of it..
Also ownership Fintel shares cannot be reconciled.
Let us stop dreaming seeing these numbers.
Without having a clear strategy no real money will flow into Hycroft, currently they are in limbo state.
HYMC has potential to get delisted / reverse split as well .. They are into 4th month of below $1.
Hycroft is not a producer .. Have taken 2 billion plus from market since last 8 years and yet to show any good progress.
They have no idea how to build a Mine..
Hycroft also have bunch of very low grade material.
I see the angle now ... May be that is why Mudrick got her in ...
Hycroft needs a more than hands on CEO, who has build the mine. I don't see her capability of building a mine, her resume does not speak for it..
Mudrick got real deal from both Buffington and Diane. Buffington fooled him inside out and Diane crossed him with Sprott.
Only way out for Mudrick is to do these as soon as possible before all his friends and family start eating up his flesh ..
1. Sell the Mine
2. Agree 17.5% to ANV Share holder, this should not include any negotiation on current Debt ..
Mudrick has no way to control the company with market cap of $20 million want to raise $500 Million .. It has no relationship with Bitcoin or any other company..
Gold is doing fine... it has gone up from 1050$ from 2016 to 1835 now..
Gold is going to hit 3000 in 2022 ...
Hycroft is still at the same level they were before Buffington took the company over...
These are management and investors getting into the asset class which they have no clue how to manage it.
Here is the deal for Hycroft share holders..
-- Hycroft still needs additional 500 million (300 million to build the mill + pay off 150 million debt) after spending close to 2B$ last 7 years.. No one in real mind want to invest that into Hycroft
-- Mudrick is not qualified to run a Mining company
-- Mudrick is not giving up the mill without a fight or hanging himself
If this continues another 6 months ... there is no way out but file BK again ..
BTW how is Mudrick's Associate Degree in Metallurgy going at Community College ...
Is he repeating his D & F to get pass mark ?
No one believe Mudrick anymore. Let us go for 10 cents .. that looks more likely.
Next stop is delisted from Nasdaq and move to OTC.
After that HYMC will be much cheaper than toilet paper from Costco.. you might as well use it as Toilet Paper.
We have to see much bigger run with volume to make any realistic determination. It will all be speculative, unless we see a clear direction with price and volume.
Today's action was quite a bit of up and down, there was no clear direction.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/hymcz/latest-real-time-trades
What I observe today was most of the big sell was on the Bid not on the ask.. which again does not suggest any known bullish outcome.
We need to see continuous buying ...
Is Mudrick doing fine Is he going to community college to complete his Metallurgy Associate Degree.
Hycroft is projecting itself as explorer with 146.2 millions of debt rather than Tear 1 producer.
With 146.2 Million debt, unless they plan together to turn it around.. HYMC chart suggest it is going below .10 cents (or it could become Negative as oil did last year) and head towards over the counter stock.
Someone will write a book - How Mudrick's turned SPAC investor into dime ..
I don't see how Mudrick will be having good night sleep these days.
Is he working on another SPAC - I saw last one with topps was cancelled..
People still believe him ?
That is exactly the point, they did not honor court order of 17.5% during SPAC merger. Cheap factor was calculated without keeping 17.5% from Oct 2015. Mudrick understood that he messed up ANV share holders. I think that is all the reason Buffington was fired and they honored the Anti Dilution much later after SPAC went public, this was 2nd mistake.
Basic of 17.5% court order was to restrict any debt and/or equity taken post Oct 2015.
I am very certain someone who owns most of the warrants (we are minority holder here) knows that this needs to adjusted at the end (in court or outside the court), and because they have messed up ANV share holders during SPAC this expiry of Oct 2022 can easily be challenged in court.
Because Hycroft miscalculated ANV share holders right during SPAC merge they are are due for severe penalty and Hycroft equity holders (all of HYMC/HYMCW/HYMCL) are being being penalized (as stock deteriorated) with Mudrick.
17.5% of the companies valuation it has no relationship with HYMC stock price.
This is specifically for Z holders.. most of the folks here are ANV holders..
Z mathematical model is directly and indirectly proportionate to Mudrick's gain..
Which means Z holders win in both scenario
-- Mudrick's gain Z holder win
-- HYMC goes to ZERO and Mudrick hangs himself.. Z holder will still win..
Reason 17.5% Court Order... Mud and Buff can try all they can, 17.5% never change..
They have poison pill to restrict any hostile, plus majority of shares are with Mudrick. It does not go much anywhere.
We have Hycroft toy with a bad guy.. imagine the toy story movie...
Mudrick wants to break it all and lose it all... he is insane ...
It is possible that HYMC and all its warrants will go to ZERO .. Hycroft is in hand of no brainer shady bunch.
REAGAN's .40 on its way ...
But I don't see why any sensible investor will invest and buy equity in Hycroft & Mudrick, until he is out or become minority owner of the company.
Conclusively, it is going down below to .40 more likely .25 cents or below, may be a DIME.
HYMCW and HYMCL will go below penny..
Why Z shares has highest value out of all 4 Hycroft instruments.
17.5% of Hycroft in Anti-Diluted basis since Oct 2015 - Sprott & Mudrick please read the court order.
We only have 12.6 Million Z shares - Strike price to be properly calculated based on anti-dilution since Oct 2015.
If someone gets hold of Majority of Z shares - start buying open market .. start from .20 and keep buying till $2 (hypothetical).. let us assume they get in average of $1. They spend total of 12.6 Million to get 17.5% of Hycroft.
Looking at current stock price (going to get delisted soon) - I doubt all of Hycroft other three instrument will get 17.5% of Hycroft. They will go below 10% of Hycroft, rest has to given to Debt and additional equity needed for the company.
With below additional waiver, not sure if Mudrick has any control on the company..
The Waiver also amends the Credit Agreement to require that the Company shall continue to employ and retain Diane Garrett in her positions as President, Chief Executive Officer and a director of the Company and Stanton Rideout in his positions as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company until the repayment in full of the Facility Indebtedness (as defined in the Credit Agreement),
This is pathetic: Cash position is now getting below 9 Million .. Sprott has to extend the arm & waive the requirement only to last day of calendar month. They sell the Gold and bring in cash position.
Next step .. HYMC delisted and Mudrick will file Bankruptcy ..
HYMCZ/HYMC ratio is heading back towards all time high.
This could cross .50 soon, yearly low was .04.
HYMC: New 52 weeks low ...
I don't why anyone will trust Mudrick to invest into Hycroft.
1 for 10 reverse split might be on the way.
Ration Chart: What it is communicating is that,
HYMCZ has been performing better relative to HYMC.
Trend is with HYMCZ to do relatively better.
It is now at its highest % away from the 200 day moving average - which means it will consolidate for a few days or weeks before it takes off further high.
HYMCZ Chart:
After the June spike, it was below most of the moving averages. It just turned around and closed & conformed above 50 MA after a very long time. It touched 200 day MA (which is at .37) - Keep in mind chart analysis only considers data from trading hours.
HYMC Chart: It is forming another Bearish flag, which means it will go further down.
Awareness due to this chart:
It is healthy for HYMCZ to stay close to 40 cents for a few days before it takes off higher.
HYMCZ/HYMC ratio jumped all time high and it has been steady since last 4 days. It is now at .4504, 52 weeks low is around .028.
HYMCZ/HYMC ratio broke previous all time high today. Technically this is a good sign for HYMCZ.
Today might be the day HYMCZ crosses HYMC for good.
It is possible that Hycroft could be subpoenaed by SEC regarding its ancestor ANV.
Today, Lucid has been subpoenaed by SEC on enquiry on Atieva (it previous company), they went public through SPAC same as HYMC.
If that happens HYMC (this Dog) will go below a Dime ...
Hycroft has been below $1 since November 16th, based on 4310 (c) 8(D) by December 16th Hycroft will be given notice ..
For the last 30 consecutive business days, the bid price of the Company’s common stock has closed below the minimum $1.00 per share requirement for continued inclusion under Marketplace Rule 4310(c)(4) (the “Rule”). Therefore, in accordance with Marketplace Rule 4310(c)(8)(D), the Company will be provided 180 calendar days, or until February 9, 2009, to regain compliance.1 If, at anytime before February 9, 2009, the bid price of the Company’s common stock closes at $1.00 per share or more for a minimum of 10 consecutive business days, Staff will provide written notification that it complies with the Rule.2
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310094/000119312508178483/dex102.htm#:~:text=Marketplace%20Rule%204310(c)(8)(E)%20states%20that,the%20issuer%20has%20demonstrated%20an
How it helps :
I see two parts -- (these are my own analysis, have no real ground information to make any real conclusion)
1. ANV share holders right to co-exist:
HYMCZ (ANV shareholders) have been cheated during IPO process. Mudrick & Buffington has not abide by the court rule which states ANV Warrants cannot be diluted post Oct 2015 (all actions taken by its executives), it holds 17.5% of the company.
There was no representation from ANV shareholders (17.5%) holder of the company during SPAC process.
I don't see how this can be resolved without taking Hycroft to the court.
2. To build the the mill, they will need additional 200 to 300 million cash and current HYMC shares will be heavily diluted. Based on Market Cap equation they could add 5 to 10 times of additional shares.
I doubt current HYMC price (post dilution) can 20/30 fold in next 4 years...
Based on Lausanne curve for Mining industry, once it finalizes, it will see big drop and pop. After that it will go in lull period for many months to year, which will depend on management execution (which has been very poor so far).
If you want to make money in HYMC buy before announcement (there will be another big drop from here) and sell with first Pop, you might see 200% gain during first pop. Don't suck on and get married to the stock, Hycroft Stinks as a company.
Regarding ANV warrants, we will need to take these executives to court.. that is only way out.
HYMC: I will wait for market to give the reversal with very high volume reversal day, and a follow up day. Wait for stock to correct back.. You will see sign of reversal.. Anything else is just speculation ...
I would not go close to HYMCW or HYMCL yet.. these will have huge problem with dilution and might become worth less.
There is no conclusion.. Just following how market is behaving to each of these Hycroft instruments since last year.
There is a saying 'The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.'
HYMC, HYMCW & HYMCL all these are in downward trend, market suggest it will keep going down..
HYMCZ still in uptrend if you look back 5 years of data..
With HYMC is tanking ...
HYMCW & HYMCL will be begging for penny a piece soon.
And HYMCZ is standing tall..
I can see that Jordan's prophecy might come to fruition soon and finally ANV shareholders will be ultimate winner of Hycroft Mine.
I was expecting HYMC @ $.25 to load up .. I guess, it will not go that low.. or may be on the day of announcement, we might see V bottom, which is what has been happening to quite a bit of stocks.
How soon ? Can we place the order for the book yet to get it delivered before New Year ?
Mudrick is proving to be way immature to manage such a big fund.
His mistakes ware very clearly visible and it is certain that he will do tons of more mistakes during his involvement with Hycroft.
During this entire process, it will be good for all of us(ANV Share holders) and HYMC shareholders, if he is marginalized to a minority stake holder of Hycroft and has no control to make company decision.
Company has to go through production grade mill development - Diane Garrett does not have experience of dong so. It should be first act to FIRE her and bring in person with experience to development open Pit mill in six to nine months time.
Here is Chapter 7 scenario from Wiki:
When a troubled business is unable to pay its creditors, it may file (or be forced by its creditors to file) for bankruptcy in a federal court under Chapter 7. A Chapter 7 filing means that the business ceases operations unless those operations are continued by the Chapter 7 trustee. A Chapter 7 trustee is appointed almost immediately, with broad powers to examine the business's financial affairs. The trustee generally liquidates the assets and distributes the proceeds to the creditors. This may or may not mean that all employees will lose their jobs. When a large company enters Chapter 7 bankruptcy, entire divisions of the company may be sold intact to other companies during the liquidation.
That means, current BOD will lose control and new guys will take over the BOD and operation. Which is not selling equity, it is being taken over.. That is most likely only scenario left.
To make it successful (and that to 5, 10 or 20 bagger), these new guys need to be Mining literate not punks like Mudrick and current CEO Diane.
How will .40 cents share value of Hycroft (market cap of 25 Million) company will have Capex investment through 300 millions equity sell - 12 times of Market Cap?
Unless an existing share holder or a lender is trying to take over UGLY way..
Poison Pill is only good for hostile take over situation.
At this time Hycroft needs more dollars to burn (as they have been since last 8 plus years - with Buffington).
Company need to go for either Equity or Debt Funding ...
Debt Funding:
Not sure with Management credibility, they could grab any more big money through Debt funding.
Equity funding:
Total Hycroft now worth 45 Million, they will need at a minimum 5 to 10 times of its current market cap. Which is not going to be easy through any form of equity funding.
Other Option for funding: Look for a right company to buy them outright.
If they don't act on resolving this in timely manner, HYMC has two option.
1. Get delisted and move to OTC
2. Reverse Spit
Only option out of all these looks attractive for Hycroft Share holder is to look for a buyer who can take over the company (if already not doing so), All other options are not good for current Hycroft Share holders.
Market is in borrowed time and looks like will go through Euphoria phase for next few months. That is where it will tank to the hell with interest rate skyrocketing with Inflation. Bonds are being manipulated since last 40 years and will come to end very soon.
With interest rate increase & massive defaulting, will bring credibility question on existence of FED.
I can see that our friend Mudrick with all his innovative investment, will be scratching junk yard metals for Silver to sell in New York market.