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Oil and OPEC
You have to think OPEC as a weak version of the feds, but for the oil markets. They have less control as not all oil producers are members and even their own members tend to do what is good for them instead of what supports the price. If there are clear signs of demand falling, OPEC members are notarious of exceeding their production quotas.
If natural gas had a bubble, how much of a bubble is there in oil? There are OIL based ETFs trading on several exchanges across the world. How many hedge funds are heavily into commodities?
I would like to see gold fall about $10 to $20 in a day and then I would feel good about going long it again. It is tempting me now but I'm worried about speculative excesses unwinding and the market shifting focus to deflation from inflation (or actually lowered inflation expectations).
Added to shorts
When people talk about seasonality, one thing what rearly gets mentions is the simple thing that we there are predictable patterns of pre-results confessions. The companies must lower the expectations first in order to exceed the lowered expectations during the actual results period.
Trin has been creeping up - just a bit more please...
TRIN and TICK show no weakness yet
Looks like they are trying to panic new shorts into covering.
TRIN and TICK show no weakness yet
Looks like they are trying to panic new shorts into covering.
Mixed econ stats
Housing starts came way below expectations 1,665 million expected 1.746, but PPI came at +0.1% expected +0.3%. Exluding food etc it came at -0.4% when 0.2% was expected.
So do we rally on no interest rate raises or crash on crashing housing market.....
At the time of writing TRIN had backed off from the high by about 0.13 or so. Things change as we have seen, though.......
Looks like downdraft stalled
TRIN fallen from high and TICK high (880!) show that we might have a bit of a recovery.
Both TRIN and TICK moving up......
At the moment, to me it looks like strengthening.
Anyone seen consumer sentiment numbers?
What it came at and what was expected?
http://www.bloomberg.com- DOW down by 5656.52
Currently shows DJIA having fallen 50%! I wonder if this is the future? DOW 5886.80, down 5656.52
I wonder what they messed up....
The real question is, when will it be safe to fade this?
The real question is, when will it be safe to fade this?
CPI reaction
Depends a lot on the market expectations. Obviously, significantly higher figures than expected would be bad. Lower would be seen as positive (fed more likely to pause). But it's going to be fickle. We've already seen indications of higher inflation and market failed to sell off. Expiry?
No guarantees yet.......
I would like to see TRIN to move up. TICK went solidly negative for a short period, but back positive, bounces between 40 and 120. Nah, now over 300.
I think we have to wait 3pm or even 3.20pm to see which way it goes, but I have a feeling it might still break up. Too low TRIN and too strong TICK. Unless we get a real flood of selling soon.
First signs of possible pullback/sell off
TICKS are negative, TRINS lowish still in the 1.16 and 0.4. Could be just regrouping.
Anyone dare to buy sEP 40 PUTS? They are cheap........
Might be close to the top, but
TRINQ is very low, TRIN has been moving, but TICK has spend most of the day way above 100. So I would not be suprised if they don't try at least one more big push up.
Fake break through resistance to get panic buying in order to sell into it?
I would not count on any resistance at this point
NYSE tick has been most of the day above 300 and significant periods above 1000 SUSTAINED. Nasdaq TRIN is very low 0.3. This probably is somehow related to triple expiry or maybe someone knows something about the inflation statistics coming out in the next few days.
We might reverse violently but I would not expect that anytime earlier than Thursday afternoon but it might take as long as Tuesday next week.
No question, this is panic buying. But it feeds on itself. I would be amazed if tomorrow is a down day.
I went flat a while ago with losses and saved myself 8 points on NQ plus whatever on other indices.
Very brave but could be profitable -
NYSE TICK still above 400. TRINS low. Maube we get a big last hour reversal. Maybe it was all just MMs wanting to go short
But I would have tight stops. Nasdaq tick actually went negative for a moment and NYSE tick fell to 100. Now Nyse tick 510 and Nasdaq went up to 200 and fell back to 50.
Definite topping feel, but then again it looks like someone always comes at ask right when it looks like it might fall. Nasdaq TRIN very low 0.3.
EDIT: now bot NYSE and Nasdaq ticks negative. Yep and that lasted all of few seconds. NYSE tick is 516.
I'm flat now - NYSE TICK over 1000
Really, really should have done it earlier today. Stupid work... This is clearly panic buying which means it will go on for awhile as this attracts more buyers tomorrow who don't want to move miss the boat.
Edit: Funny for a second after I got out, it looked like we are weakening: the NYSE tick fell to something like 40. And then it went to 200 and and now 1553. It's a train wreck and there is no point standing at front of it.
I guess the down in September is too well known.
Absolutely no let down...
I don't see how we can collapse this... It's panic buying.... We might get some kind of reversal today on data or it is further pain. Thursday before expiry is often a reversal day, too. I'm close to reaching my pain treshold which probably means that it will collapse just after I get out....
Gleno, maybe it is a quantum position and appears to have two values at the same time Kind of like Schrodingers cat position
Looks to me like we will have at least one more leg up
TRIN has not risen enough and TICK still strong. There has been very short periods of selling, but TICK recovers to 200 to 500 range very fast.
I got in short too early, too...
Now have the same problem: reverse and take loss which probably means we will head down hard right afterwards or hang on to the position and suffer....
Someone find the plug and pull it out
This looks like unstoppable. No sign of selling anywhere.
Say nothing GLENO,
TRINs are very low and show no sign of moving up. TICKs high, so this could be painful for bears. The techs are being pumped (Credit Swiss told people to buy them), so we might be near the top, but don't yet see any signs of reveral today.
Low TRINs worry me....
It does not look like this market knows it is supposed to go down But on the other hand, they (brokerages) are pushing the techs and semis hard, so it might be the top.
Tech stocks being pumped
We had nice declines in Europe and then Credit Swiss does this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJBw2Wf_1qIM&refer=home
European Stocks Rise as Credit Suisse Says Buy Tech Companies
But then again, inflation is not under control in the UK after all:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aTOA_irKv7xM&refer=uk
U.K. Inflation Rate Increases to Match 9-Year High (Update2)
Oh, by the way the recovery yesterday was thanks to Fed Poole saying that growth is robust. We'll see Thursday/Friday if inflation in the US is robust, too...
"Currently, commodies are rapidly weakening against equities. That's bullish for the stock market."
Or the weakness is commodities is forecasting a recession. I tend to think that because of the housing price bubble collapse is going to be very difficult to avoid and the yield curve is (partially) inverted.
The signals of a slowdown in Asia are significant.
Chico,
You have to be careful with those relative performance charts. NDX can outperform other indices and still fall. All it needds to do is to fall less than whatever you compare it to.
If you are interested in relatived performance, take a look at at least five year charts of the following:
$INDU:GLD
$SPX:GLD
$NDX:GLD
$COMPX:GLD
$INDU:$USD
$SPX:$USD
$NDX:$USD
$COMPX:$USD
Maxpain at this point should include all options that expire on Friday....
I.e. leaps, weeklies, and normal options. Whether the various calculators do that, it's a different matter...... You have to query whoever provides the data to you.
Whatever Texas Instrumemts TXN said, it's causing people to trade all over the place after hours
The best spread across AH markets had a spread of .50 and people still traded... At the moment about .3 down, 31.45-31.60
NYSE TRIN back to 1.03
TICK hit over 600 a moment ago and now negative. I think this is a game of chicken between bulls and bears at the moment.
I think that the bears might have a chance here now.... The famous hope indicators is entering, too, as I've added to my shorts with the view closing the additional stuff before the close.
And NYSE TRIN fallen back to 1.01 now
What is going on?
NYSE and Nasdaq TICKs negative, NYSE TRIN has fallen to 0.99!!!!!
Need NYSE TRIN to co-operate
TICKS are well negative, but NYSE TRIN fell from about 1.08 to 1.04. I would love to see it to raise to over 1.5
It feels like they might want to break the current flags up....
NYSE TRIN and TICK are kind of supportive unless we get a quick turn around soon. I hate that I missed the bottom because of work.... It would have been a good point to at least lighten the short load for better re-entry.
Saw a small thing about this research in Yahoo or Bloomberg, too
Just curious, how do you find out what hedge funds are holding/buying/selling? They are notariously secretive and as private LLPs do not have to disclose almost any information.
Is this some kind of survey? How current is the data? It's interesting but I just don't understand how anyone could come up with any figures for it. Maybe some kind of proxies?
High and low of the day
"The high of day will ALWAYS be the ask and the low of day will ALWAYS be the bid. Once again (and this time I mean it LOL), end of story."
This is obviously not true. It depends on the order flow and order types. On some stocks that go through closing auction, the low or high potentially was never a bid nor ask....
Reasons for crash
There are several potential reasons for markets to crash, the most likely something that triggers fears of systematic failures:
- collapse of big hedge fund a'la LTCM, or chain of collapses
- some kind of blow up of the credit default swaps (bankrupcy of F, GM plus discovery that debt held by financial units is much worse quality than expected
- some kind of systematic issues in the mortgage markets
- option pricing scandal spreading and REALLY gaining publicity, US corporate accounts basically being worthless
Or indeed what about the last:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/11/news/companies/dell/index.htm?postversion=2006091107
http://money.cnn.com/
NEWS Dell says probe reveals possible financial misstatements, delays SEC filing. Details soon.
DELL
Pre-Market: 21.04 Down 0.61 (2.82%)
Just being a pedant....
"Market orders to sell always sell at the bid price and market orders to buy always buy at the ask price, hence the word "MARKET" Limit orders are bought or sold at their limit prices or not at all, hence the word "LIMIT"."
The last clause should read that limit orders execute at limit price or better. If the market has moved in your favour, the limit orders obviously execute at the best available bid or offer at the market center they were routed. Limit orders guarantee no worse execution than the limit price, but they might never execute.....