Making Marijuana Millionaires
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This guy thinks safe is comming this week
This is what I’m gonna be doing all week while waiting for #Safebankingact to pass #msos #mso $tcnnf #potstocks pic.twitter.com/AMje0QV2iB
— Mark Satoshi Reece (@markRee92928419) November 28, 2022
NDAA update: House and Senate Armed Services leaders have pretty much ironed out their differences and are turning to leadership to determine what outside issues hitch a ride.
— Connor O'Brien (@connorobrienNH) November 30, 2022
"We have generally disposed of all the matters under our jurisdiction,” Jack Reed says.
great perspective about the odds of Safe Banking passing
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-the-new-republican-and-democratic-congressional-leaders-stand-on-marijuana/
Last one for the evening. Here's a great chart showing Institutional ownership for U.S. Cannabis vs other industries. $MSOS pic.twitter.com/PnlsAn58E0
— March2Millions (@March2Millions) November 27, 2022
Carl Merton, Chief Financial Officer at Tilray Brands
"The current issue on institutional funds is more about custody of the shares than it is about their interest in the space. They just don't have someone to hold the shares for them, largely because of federal illegality in the U.S. There are versions of the SAFE+ Banking Act that could provide comfort to the custodians and allow for them to hold shares for their clients but there are also versions of SAFE+ that don't. One of the latest credible analyst reports that I've read, suggests that the final contents of the SAFE+ Banking Act, if passed, may not be known until minutes before the vote."
Search for the term “Safe Banking ” over the last 5 yrs
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&gprop=news&q=safe%20banking
The realities of the cannabis industry has been very difficult to navigate .
We often observe imperfect or incomplete information (thanks to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle). And pay to play Analysts pushing the big MSO's
We have been inundated with so much information that separating the signal from the noise becomes difficult.
These two problems are solved by developing our judgment — our practical wisdom. Both of these come with spending time in this industry.
Judgment is key. Without judgment, the data means nothing. It is not necessarily the one with more information who will come out victorious, it is the one with better judgment , the one who is better at discerning realities from patterns. This comes from constant observation of the chatrooms , quaterly financials etc.
We need to constantly break apart our old cannaibis industry paradigms and put the resulting pieces back together to create a new perspective that better matches the current cannabis industries realities.
SHWz without a doubt is uniquely situated to take advantage
https://www.reddit.com/r/SHWZ/comments/z2hnbn/safe_banking_tweak_would_be_huge_plus_for/
SAFE Banking Tweak Would Be Huge ‘Plus’ for Financial, Cannabis Industries
As the regulated sale of cannabis increasingly becomes sanctioned under state law, federal implications arising from its classification as a controlled substance continue to frustrate those in the banking industry who view the meteoric rise of the cannabis industry as a promising opportunity (legal market sales in 2022 are expected to reach $33 billion[1]). Despite the U.S. Department of Justice’s (“DOJ”) continued adherence to its non-enforcement stance as first outlined in the (now rescinded) Cole Memorandum, financial institutions that provide professional services to state-sanctioned cannabis businesses continue to face the potential for severe consequences stemming from, among other things, violation of the Controlled Substances Act, the Bank Secrecy Act, and anti-money laundering laws. Members of Congress have attempted, and failed, to address this uncertainty through the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act. In its most basic sense, the SAFE Banking Act sought to prohibit federal regulators from penalizing a depository institution for providing banking services to a legitimate cannabis-related business (a business that complies with state law and the 2018 Farm Bill or Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018). Although the DOJ has not made it a priority to prosecute financial institutions for providing services to cannabis-related businesses, the majority of these institutions remain wary of acting without a change in federal law. Unfortunately, the SAFE Banking Act has repeatedly died in the Senate after passing in the House of Representatives on seven occasions.
Following President Biden’s October 6, 2022, statement on marijuana reform, focus predictably shifted back to Congress and ultimately to the SAFE Banking Act. While the SAFE Banking Act has always counted members from both sides of aisle among its supporters, a new concept has been introduced via the “SAFE Banking Act Plus” that, aptly so, aspires to not only revive the principal thrust of the SAFE Banking Act but also address broad social inequity in the cannabis sector that Senate Democrats criticized the original proposed legislation for failing to address.
Although no draft text of the SAFE Banking Act Plus has been released, information coming from Capitol Hill suggests that the prospect of the act is an exciting development because this act, unlike its predecessor, will have a formidable chance of becoming law. Democratic members of Congress have historically led the charge on marijuana reform at the federal level; however, despite having nine Republican co-sponsors, the SAFE Banking Act failed to pass in the Senate because of intra-party displeasure at how the act, as drafted, had overwhelmingly favored large-industry interests. Such quarrels have previously led to the Senate Majority Leader expressing that he will not advance the SAFE Banking Act in his chamber. However, the SAFE Banking Act Plus is expected to be different.
In addition to protecting banking institutions from scrutiny for dealing with legitimate cannabis businesses, the SAFE Banking Act Plus would expand small business loan eligibility to cannabis businesses, it would afford veterans access to medical marijuana through the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, and it would provide financial resources to states for administrative costs relating to expungement efforts. Proponents of the SAFE Banking Act Plus are optimistic that the act will strike a much-needed compromise among Democratic Senators that will garner widespread support. Political analysts predict that the bill is likely to pass during the so-called “lame duck session,” prior to the new Congress being sworn in in January 2023.
Evidence suggests that federal regulators have generally taken a laissez-faire approach to enforcement when it comes to financial institutions banking the cannabis industry. Although this might suggest that the Safe Banking Act Plus would have little practical effect—to an industry that thrives on its aversion to risk, the Safe Banking Act Plus, if passed, will provide financial institutions interested in working with the cannabis industry with much-needed reassurance that they are federally compliant, especially as political winds shift.
Yes, people will be upset if #SAFEBanking does not pass.
— Adastra (@numbersnarrati) November 24, 2022
Due to the risk we are seeing only 10s of millions in inflows.
But if it passes, expect 100s of millions in inflows & $MSOS & good stocks to take off like...
Time will tell. pic.twitter.com/Qofj6BniOA
I heard from a reliable source that safe banking is passing next week
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/feds-release-updated-marijuana-banking-info-including-new-state-level-breakdown-as-congress-considers-reform/
Lowell making headways into Colorado thru SHWZ wholesale relationship with dispensaries
America's Favorite Pre-Roll is coming to Colorado!
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) November 22, 2022
Stop by our friends at @livwellcannabis on November 26th and experience three brand-new blends exclusive to Colorado. #NothingSmokesLikeaLowell pic.twitter.com/11kzjRCuPT
Doc , exactly what stock are you talking about ? SHWZ is up huge today , It closed up over 12.1%
Look at what’s happening at $SHWZ CEO Justin Dye just took 1 million plus shares down on the open market. Stock is up 90% over the last two weeks. Better to flush out the weak hands now and lock those shares up.
— George (@Ace_Bentura) November 23, 2022
$SHWZ dispendary #13 NM grand opening 1PM tomorrow in Sunland Park...38/43
— Ried Bridges (@Ried_Bridges) November 22, 2022
$SHWZ has saved my cannabis portfolio this year. Averaged down durning the drawdown and am up big after this last +70% run. I think we see around $2 to $2.10 by the end of the week without SAFE.
— George (@Ace_Bentura) November 22, 2022
“We are planning for a world where cannabis sales will occur across platforms on a federally deregulated basis. In that environment, differentiation within branding is critical.” –Chairman George Allen
“We are planning for a world where cannabis sales will occur across platforms on a federally deregulated basis. In that environment, differentiation within branding is critical.” –Chairman George Allen #CannaVest #mjbizcon2022 @MJBizDaily $LOWLF $LOWLhttps://t.co/U7Kfr3ocYZ
— Lowell Farms Inc. (@LowellFarmsInc) November 18, 2022
13 k shares on the buy side this morning traded premarket @$1.82
Bloomberg Intelligence now 70% odds on SAFE Banking while Cowen is up to 75%.
Bloomberg Intelligence now 70% odds on SAFE Banking while Cowen is up to 75%. We wanna read the safe harbor language if / when and I’m certain we’re not alone.
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) November 21, 2022
🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/rW3Q7v3BPw
https://www.reddit.com/r/SHWZ/comments/yz4syl/recreational_cannabis_sales_skyrocket_in_new/
Recreational cannabis sales skyrocket in New Mexico (11/15/22)
The following article on the New Mexico Recreational Cannabis market was published on November 15th, 2022:
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Recreational cannabis sales skyrocket in New Mexico (koat.com)
Recreational cannabis sales skyrocket in New Mexico
Despite rise in sales, oversaturation is a cause of concern for some.
Jessie Hunt, spokesperson for Schwazze said it's been a boost for the economy.
"We are continuing to see that people are coming into the legal market to purchase their cannabis, which is wonderful. That is exactly what we want to see in the state. We are able to continue to hire staff, pay strong wages in New Mexico and people really want to work in the industry, which is wonderful," Hunt said. "We are opening a few more stores. We're also trying to make sure that we're doing it in a way that is super responsible for the communities that we're in and that are in communities that really still have some high demand."
According to the latest data from the state's Cannabis Control Division, over $25 million in recreational sales was recorded in October — the highest it's been since the legalization of recreational sales in April.
However, there has been a decrease in medical sales.
Eli Goodman, CEO of Best Daze said while continuous growth is great for the cannabis industry, there may be challenges.
"The job growth is huge. I mean, companywide, our company alone has over 100 employees. We're moving through cultivation, manufacturing dispensaries. This is our eighth dispensary opened and we're one of many groups. So, there's a lot of opportunity, a lot of growth and a lot of jobs. That's positive for the economy, gets money in people's pockets and overall generates tax dollars for the state, and we need it right now as a state," Goodman said. "There's no limit on license around production, and there's a question — when does this market stabilize? Does it get saturated? Are there some people that are going to put money into businesses not be able to keep things going, because it's an oversaturated market — not be able to make it through that extension where they need some capital to keep it going."
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It is clear that the New Mexico Adult Recreational Market has been a boon for the sector and Schwazze is keen on gaining market share to grow with the industry growth with goals of ending this year with at least 16 to 17 dispensaries (versus there starting count of 10 at the close of the R.Greenleaf acquisition earlier in the year) and to have 25 dispensaries by September 2023 (as discussed in a recent interview (see link below for more details):
www.reddit.com/r/SHWZ/comments/ygryev/nms_cannabis_supply_steady_six_months_in_101422/
During the Q3'22 earnings call, management made it clear that the preferred method of dispensary growth in the New Mexico will be "organic" growth targeting key locations (e.g., Border Towns adjacent to Texas and other markets).
We believe that Schwazze, and its vertical integration strategy, will be key in outpacing the overall New Mexico market in growth (both same-store sales and through greenfield stores).
IRR
Shwz was never being courted by Cronos , There was 1 post on stocktwits w 4 comments calling the guy out for posting fake news
https://stocktwits.com/Dykers/message/496579355
The reddit website said this
"There was a lot of speculation as to why this may be happening"
#3 Schwazze was being courted as a takeover prospect (e.g., Cronos)
If anyone can copy and paste seeking alpha article , ive hit my limit and hit the paywall
Life saver for Lowell , this is a 1st to my knowledge many more to come then interstate commerce
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/oregon-marijuana-company-files-federal-lawsuit-against-state-over-unconstitutional-cannabis-export-ban/
Benzinga is the same platform Alan Brochstein is on , Basically the same Mentality platform of Pay to Play. They only market you if you pay them period.
Big news released today! Be sure to be among the first to see our revolutionary, rig-less dab solution--Concept LVT--at our @MJBizDaily #mjbizcon2022 booth #9415. https://t.co/sM7jsIfSCK
— Jupiter Research (@we_are_jupiter) November 15, 2022
A logical explanation may be we merging with a company thats possibly public / or private and the need to have our share price high to puff up markt cap so the new merger cost less of percentage of the the overall merger ( less dilutive)
Noble Capital Markets reissues $4 Price Target on Schwazze (11/15/22)
SCHWAZZE
(SHWZ/$1.45 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes
jgomes@noblefcm.com
561-999-2262
Blocking and Tackling
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
3Q22 Results. Revenue was $43.2 million, up 36% y-o-y from $31.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.9 million, or 36.7% of revenue in the quarter, up from $8.8 million, or 26.7%, a year ago. Schwazze reported operating income of $11.1 million and net income of $25,124, or breakeven EPS, versus $3.8 million, $968,756 and $0.02 last year.
Quarterly Drivers. The most influential factor driving revenue increases in the third quarter 2022 was the inclusion of four consummated acquisitions in Colorado and revenue from R. Greenleaf. Revenue from wholesale sales decreased, due in large part to continued pricing pressure in the Colorado wholesale market as a result of supply saturation in flower and bulk distillate
products.
Key Metrics. For the seventh consecutive quarter, Schwazze outpaced the Colorado industry, this time by 12%, but ongoing weakness in the Colorado market resulted in declines in key performance metrics. Colorado two year stacked IDs for same store sales in the third quarter were down 9.7%, and down 10.6% for the one year period. The same measurements for New Mexico were up 52.9% and 48.4%, respectively. Average basket size fell in New Mexico but was flat in Colorado.
Updated Projections. For the fourth quarter, we are maintaining our prior estimates for revenue, $41.1 million, operating income, $8.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA, $13.4 million. Our net loss increases to $1.55 million, or $0.03 per share, from $956,000, or $0.02 per share, due to more interest expense. For the full year, we are projecting revenue of $160.3 million and net income of $2.0 million, or $0.03 per share. Our adjusted EBITDA estimate is $52.1 million.
Maintaining Outperform. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and $4.00 twelve month price target. At our price target, SHWZ shares would trade at 10.5x projected 2023 adjusted EBITDA, in-line with the peer group's 11.5x. We believe management's focus on building a vertically integrated retail operator driving brand development with a regional focus will pay off for shareholders as the operating environment improves.
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Bloomberg comments on Safe banking this morning
Marijuana Banking May Get Nod
The SAFE Banking Act, which would allow federally character banks to service marijuana-related businesses, is our most likely bill to pass during the lameduck period. Resistance prior to this point was due to a desire among some Senate Democrats to keep pushing comprehensive marijuana legalization. With that unlikely, we think Congress will move forward with bipartisan support -- potentially in passing the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act.
Yet while banks such as Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Bank of America are unlikely to service these businesses, in the past, even the announcement of a positive catalyst in regard to the SAFE Banking Act has led to short-term double-digit increases for pot stocks including Curaleaf, Tilray Brands, Trulieve and Canopy Growth. (09/28/22)
In my research this morning i went to NewCannabisVentures Alan Brochsteins free site to investors but Cannabis Co pay for this service
I noticed all the headlines for earnings season except SHWZ used the term Sequentially,
Its was the only article to not compare Sequentailly ( from a yr ago)thats because JD wont Pay the scum bag for his fraudulent service, If was an honest guy which he isnt , and he commpared SHWZ identically to all other Canna Comps the headline should have read
Schwazze Q3 Revenue increased 92% Sequentially to $43 Million
Here is the actual SHWZ headline
Schwazze Q3 Revenue Declines quarterly 2% to $43 Million
The Parent Company Q3 Revenue Drops 28% Sequentially to $19.6 Million
4Front Q3 Revenue Increases 14% Sequentially to $32.5 Million
Glass House Q3 Revenue Increases 72% Sequentially to $28.3 Million
TerrAscend Q3 Revenue Increases 3% Sequentially to $67 Million
Columbia Care Q3 Revenue Increases 2% Sequentially to $133 Million
Jushi Q3 Revenue Was Flat Sequentially at $72.8 Million
Verano Holdings Q3 Revenue Increases 2% Sequentially to $228 Million
Planet 13 Q3 Revenue Decreases 10% Sequentially to $25.6 Million
I have been searching all the boards and chat rooms to see why the big runup on monday , and it only makes sense people are catching on , and SHWZ is really a Premier Cannabis Company trading on the OTC
1st thing in the am , stocks were running up in premarket , theoretically due to some form of safe .
Shwz has one of the best teams in cannabis
and Jd just stated in last weeks earnings call
"We're going to build something that's really, really valuable.
And right now, we're trading we're trading at roughly in the 4 times EBITDA multiples, other companies and other sectors that look like us that don't have the EBITDA or the growth profiles are trading 20 times EBITDA. And I think that will happen. So we're going to continue to work at it, be patient. We'll have our day, we'll create value, and we'll make sure that we create shareholder value and take care of all of our stakeholders.
More Q and A
lots of nuggets in this answer
Justin. And one more question before we end the session. What is the plan for the company? And do you expect any liquidity events as well. We've been getting a lot of questions on that.
Justin Dye
Great. Great question. We've got a very, very countless Board of Directors. We have great investors in the company and all of them signed up to build a great company that is leading towards taking care of customers, being innovative there, giving them what they want, building a really great company that takes care of, not only customers, but our employees and creating great careers for them. And building a business that we're really proud of that create on a relative basis, create more value than competitors in this market and then operation is better. So that's what we're building.
And hopefully, one of these days, we're going to get credit for that from a stock perspective. So we want to build a great company. It's really that simple. And we will get rewarded. There's a great quote that I like a lot from a Greek philosopher "Nothing great has ever been created suddenly", and it takes time, takes vision, takes a plan, takes hard work, takes execution and you got to stay with it. And you got to do it every day. You got to have good team work, and know where you're going, and we do.
We're going to continue to drive Colorado, New Mexico and build a really, really strong company in the Southwest in this region. That's what we want to build and develop. So we've been working on, where that leads us in terms of going public on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange, if and when that becomes available or something else in Canada or down the road. We don't know.
But we know this, if we continue to be a growth company, if we continue to grow organically, and be -- and do really, really good strategic deals on the acquisition side. We continue to drive operational efficiencies and build competitive advantage in market share. We're going to build something that's really, really valuable.
And right now, we're trading we're trading at roughly in the 4 times EBITDA multiples, other companies and other sectors that look like us that don't have the EBITDA or the growth profiles are trading 20 times EBITDA. And I think that will happen. So we're going to continue to work at it, be patient. We'll have our day, we'll create value, and we'll make sure that we create shareholder value and take care of all of our stakeholders.
Qand A
One of our listeners is asking us to provide an update on our M&A pipeline. And what does that execution look like? Perhaps Justin can take that.
Justin Dye
Well, without sharing some of our secrets, I think when we set this thing out three years ago, we said we wanted to be number one in Colorado. We wanted to be retail focused, develop good relationships with a broad assortment of suppliers that have the broadest assortment of products, give our customers a lot of choice within those stores, develop brands and products that we create when we listen to the customer and find out what they want. I think autograft and Purple Bs are good examples of that, create work really hard on winning processes, manufacturing, making data-driven decisions, creating really good processes.
So we take cost out of the business, and we can operate at a very efficient level, and that's what we're doing. So we're going to continue to look for organic growth, so stores finding new stores in the state of Colorado. I'll remind everybody there's a little over 650 adult-use stores. We have 23 of those today. And we see a lot of growth. We've seen there's going to be -- there will continue to be consolidation. We will be a consolidator, and we're going to continue to work on that. And we're going to continue to partner with good brands and do that.
And then obviously, in New Mexico, we're opening we've opened two. We've got another four coming this year. We've got a good slate of stores. Our real estate teamshave done a great job working in the local towns and counties in both Colorado and New Mexico, so you'll see us adding more stores. And we want every store to be obviously meet the needs of the local to. We're good stewards. We don't spend a great deal of money on those stores. they're clean, they're nice stores, but we watch our capital closely. -- and we expect them to generate cash flow.
And we're going to continue to do that, and we're stint find good locations. And then there's acquisitions that bringing great retail locations, bring capabilities, bring brands, products to us, and we will look to drive synergies, cost synergies, revenue synergies and leverage our fixed operating costs and SG&A. So it really bring our operating playbook, merchandising what good looks like from a product standpoint in the stores or what we're going to carry, how we're going to price it, how we're going to promote it. And then what we're going to do from a retail and distribution, manufacturing delivery, et cetera, on the supply chain side. So those are -- that's what we're going to continue to work on. Could there be other states that fit our regional our regional strategy. We'll continue to evaluate those types of opportunities. But that's really what we're going to do. I mean goal number one is continue to work on Colorado and continue to work on New Mexico. And that's our strategy. We've got a good balance sheet. We've got cash. We've got cash, and we're in good shape. So that's really where we're headed and what we're up to. Thanks.
Q and A continues
Justin, here's a question for you. Can you speak to inflation and how that is impacting sales or expected to continue to impact sales for the next quarter?
Justin Dye
We obviously are concerned about it. When you look at what's going on with the consumer, inflation is still running at a healthy clip, roughly around 8%, wages are under pressure. So people are having a tougher time having their dollar go further. So it's really important for consumer product companies to provide value and provide deals. So we continue to watch that. I think this is an emerging category in terms of cannabis. We're seeing that we're perhaps not completely insulated, but we're certainly resilient as a category. So I think that's certainly encouraging.
So we're watching how consumers are behaving, what tree or flower they're purchasing, certainly looking to seeing, how they're participating in deals, maybe they're buying, buy one, get one free deals in our dispensaries. So we're making those more available. So certainly, it's a concern. And you're looking at more debt, particularly mortgage debt is becoming more and more expensive for homeowners.
So we're in the state where it's concerning -- but yet, we've got a low unemployment rate. So we're going to have to continue to watch and see what's happening with our customer and keep our finger on the pulse. So interesting times. Obviously, we'll see what happens with the rest of the vote count. I don't think we have a decisive really decisive view of what happened with the House and the Senate from last night. So we'll see what happens there as well. But certainly, we're watching and we're concerned about the economy.
More Q and A
Regarding wholesale, -- there's a lot of people asking about wholesale numbers that are down dramatically, particularly in Colorado. And some companies have even announced that they're exiting the wholesale market. So what is Schwazze strategy?
Nirup Krishnamurthy
The wholesale market in Colorado was driven down primarily due to overproduction of flower in 2021. We are a glute in the marketplace. Again, cycling COVID. There's a lot of alteration that happened last year, which resulted in number; one, excess slow, but we wholesale lower down. Number two, it affected the excess distillate in the market that is essentially used across a lot of CPG directs, like rates, et cetera, gaming.
And so we saw significant pressure on distillate pricing this year versus last year. Distillate pricing in Colorado was almost down 60% over last year. But in spite of that, we have maintained our volumes, we have maintained our tonnage in terms of number of kilograms sold per month of distillate in the marketplace.
So, we don't believe the market is going anywhere. I think it's going to come back over a period of time. And we value our relationships, we provide distillate to adopt manufacturers across all categories. and we have healthy relationships that will continue in the years to come.
And we also expanded our CPG portfolio -- we are not in too many dollars with our great brands last year. But this year, our goal is to expand across over $100, and we continue to expand that portfolio on the low farms and coming online, and we have other plans to develop new brands, be it on the CPG side or on the flower side, we believe that the wholesale market has good potential in the long run -- the medium to long run. So we believe this is a temporary kind of depression in the wholesale market. But we are happy with where we are at this point