GONZO
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Flawed.
So, what you are saying is that Fidelity, the pros there, the guys that pull the trigger for a living, thought, "although we see this ROI 2-3 years from now, let's pull the trigger now because, after all, a $13.50 entry is as about as good as we're going to do."
Sorry, not buying what you're selling.
And I still haven't heard your take on my assertion that, by your comments, the implication is that there will be no material news within the next 12 months that will lift the pps?
I say otherwise. ADXS will not be trading in single digits much longer.
I completely agree with you that the "current fair value" right now should be between 1B and 2B MC, however the market (for now) has decided otherwise.
Translation: ADXS currently "should be" somewhere between $25 and $50 pps
I believe a material event will change things for good.
The waiting game continues...
Great points Trader. Unfortunately, it seems the dial will not change until one or more of the following events transpire:
1. Significant partnership in excess of 750 million
2. Great P3 results
3. FDA Approval(s)
Personally, I believe Advaxis will get all of the above and more, it's just a matter of "when". And I'm thoroughly convinced that we'll see some form of partnership/deal soon; certainly, well before the next "12 months".
But to Meishairwin's point, will the near-term change really matter that much if/when ADXS really moves to a multi-billion dollar MC within 2 years?
Good luck.
Good insight, but I disagree on the timing of getting to at least a 1B market cap, which is about ~25 pps. If ADXS is still 12+ months away from 1B MC or slightly higher, then you are implying that there is likely no significant news events that we should expect within the next 12 months.
I respectively disagree with this thinking. It is more likely than not (in much less than 12 months) we will see a significant partnership that will move the share price closer to a billion give or take, including any form of dilution.
I do agree with your assessment that when the stock really takes off, i.e. in the multi-billion mc area, it will be very sudden. In short, the pps is severely undervalued as it stands today and significant deal should move it closer to fair value, which I believe is somewhere between 1B and 2B MC.
Likely, with the appropriate deal, a run to $20+, an offering, and then a fib retrace into the mid-teens, give or take. When it truly settles, probably between $17 and $20.
From there, post P3 success? Completely unpredictable.
My $.02
GLTAL
5B+ in a month, yes. 2B tomorrow - nope.
What constitutes as "super offer" IYO? Here is how I see things potentially unfolding:
1. Significant news announcement within weeks that propels the market cap to over 1B (somewhere between $30-$40 ps)
2. Then, trending up over the course of the next several months towards a 2B+ MC, which is about $50-$60 ps
From here (market cap of 2B+) is fair value IMO. Now, today the data continues to strongly point to the fact that this isn't just "another" platform for treating cancer. This is a transformational , game-changing, or rather "the next 'killer-app'" in the world of BIO.
And, if true, anything less than an offer 10+ Billion is selling the the technology short. Frankly, I'd rather see Advaxis grow and end up becoming a multi-billion dollar giant one day than selling off for a few billion.
Either way, times are getting exciting...
I believe that if it's big enough, word will leak out and volume will come in.
The tell tale sign will be volume. Of course, you could be right since it's more in line with the DNA of ADXS.
Regardless, it becomes more and more evident with each validating dataset, that ADXS may very well be a game-changing platform that nobody can predict in terms of a financial ceiling.
Very exciting times, really.
I "see" your prediction and "raise it" to the following:
If a "major" deal is inked within 3 weeks, we should begin to see the pps trend up (as well as volume) < 1 week before the PR. Furthermore, if "major", we should be trading in the teens just before the announcement.
And the landing will be 1.2 and 1.4B MC, which translates to ~30-35 pps.
And this will be the base to really launch from towards what I see as a market cap in the double-digit B's.
Caveat: "major" means "at/around/more than" 1B
I dunno Obi Wan...
Not following the value of a PR on news that already happened during the presentation today? Is there some other information expected?
Shhhhhhh; let it stay under the radar. When the "coming out" happens, it will just add more explosiveness to the upside for the market cap.
Oh no, not really. No. $30s-50s is only fair market cap value. which is between 1.5B and 2B.
Jump pumping would be move to $30s and then, after sometime, jump to the $300s. That would be jump pumping.
Of course, all will come in due time.
10-Q and S-3/A are both filed...
10-Q
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=11925546&RcvdDate=3/10/2017&CoName=ADVAXIS%2C%20INC.&FormType=10-Q&View=html
S-3/A
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=11925143&RcvdDate=3/10/2017&CoName=ADVAXIS%2C%20INC.&FormType=S-3/A&View=html
TRIPLE on deck...
10X
for starters. Just completely irrational, really.
I think you are correct.
just rumors, just rumors. But I wouldn't be surprised if offers have been made.
From yahoo board (buyout rumor post)
"A definite buy out company now. either the stock will have to go over $12.00 in the next 30 days or ADXS management will Agree to a possible sale. ADXS is getting offers but management isn't ready to just sell. ADXS is on its way to be the next Pfizer type company without a sale. but I think we're going to see a sale before they are to that point ."
PFE MC is 200B...
This diamond in the rough (we have) is going to be much, much bigger than anybody here realizes and I suspect DOC knows EXACTLY what he has.
At 6 Billion MC? Blah, that will just be a starting point when things start to mature.
The question for everyone here is "Can you be patient enough to see the valuation move to where a number you never would have imagined?"
GLTAL
Not happening. Don't be fooled by how the traders are managing the current scenario. And don't be surprised when the "BAM" happens either.
The writing is all but on the wall now, and this is DEFINITELY NOT the time to sell OR "get out" after the impending initial rise.
The party is about to get started IMO.
GLTAL
Well, I'm done accumulating. Holding 25K shares now and will just be waiting for the next set of material events and ensuing pps over the course of the next 1-3 years. Don't plan on touching anything until we cross $50; maybe take a dip then.
Signing off until the next run.
See you all at $50, $125, and $165
GLTA
I'm thinking that time is running out. That's what I'm thinking.
The way I see it is if the market cap can get to 2B (sooner rather than later), then a BO in 2017 maybe in the cards. We really should be at a 2B MC right now, which ~$50 pps.
Would you pull the trigger today if you had the cash? I'm trying to decide if I should grab some more at 9.04 or wait for something around 8.75.
After digesting the landscape and context further, I now firmly believe that if a BP is looking to pick-off ADXS in a buyout it may happen even sooner than we think, i.e. sometime this year rather than 2018'ish. Furthermore, I agree with you that an early buyout will fetch nothing short of 6B-8B.
Assuming events unfold and the data we expect lands with weight, if a BP doesn't try to take out ADXS with a BO sooner rather than later, they will be paying in the 10s of billions given the potential. If so, it makes a BO look very tangible much, much sooner than we all realize.
Methinks things are going to get very, very interesting and surprise us all.
Not sure I agree given that shorts are probably unaware of fundamentals and likely imminent corporate events; at least awareness in detail.
I suspect they would start covering now if it were not the case and/or at least demonstrate signs that they are trying to cover. Still seeing the vast majority of trades in those computer-generated 100-share blocks.
What's worse - they don't know they are trapped yet.
The shorts need time and it's running out...
Given the recent set of events, I'd say it's highly probable.
Fair enough. Food for thought:
Investors need to decide their window. If people are looking to make a very nice 70%-120% near-term (i.e. before summer), they'll get that I believe. And that's nothing to sneeze at.
However, if anybody is looking for the "ceiling" on their investment in ADXS, it's going to take baking time beyond the next 6 months, certainly. The problem right now is that nearly everybody is very frustrated with the current valuation; understandable given that it's 3X-5X low IMO. We want to point fingers, so we blame the LT. However, the rise and fall of the pps is really out of their control, regardless of what partnerships, licensing deals etc. they execute on. Simply, we can control market sentiment.
So, until we see substantive changes (i.e. partnerships, etc.), we are stuck. But I know my window and I'm completely fine waiting for it to open.
Fbg, I've been reading your posts and here is what really puzzles me. If you are so certain Dan is a crook and going to rip off retail investors by rewarding himself, then how in the world can you have 125K shares invested here? That's 1.1 million bucks man and a lot of eggs that could go rotten.
You must be very, very wealthy (which begs the question, why are you on this message board so much) or riding a ton of free shares.
A lot of folks over reacting right now because of the shelf renewal. Please re-read and ignore the individuals that are clearing making either misleading and/or false statements. Very evident those folks are starting to get concerned.
The clock is still ticking...
I suppose it's possible for Advaxis to, one day, be a top-10 BP, since the top 10 all have market caps around 100B or greater. It just seems like something far, far, far away though and not really probable at all.
Still think Advaxis gets bought out in 2018 somewhere north of 5B.
Blue, your comment on being a Dan becoming a billionaire. Either he's going to have to get a ton more shares (without diluting the stock) and I mean millions OR the stock is going to have reach the $1000s pps.
He currently has about 300K shares, so to be a billionaire, the pps would have to about $3300 pps, putting the market cap well over 100B for the company.
I like to dream, but I can't imagine that happening. Maybe I'm really short sighted here.
M Harris, it depends what you mean by net, old shelf, and new shelf. If the old shelf had issues, then the new shelf is likely much stronger and can handle more weight even there are additional nets to support.
For example, imagine you are walking on a dock and a large, white whale is approaching the dock from the south. At this time you might be thinking that the old shelf will be enough to support your concerns, even though the large white whale will obliterate the doc. But, what you fail to consider is that the net between the old shelf and the new shelf are not reasonable enough to sustain any sort of resistance to the large white whale. At this point, you only consider the 14 alternatives that I clearly outlined above.
At the end of the day, the old shelf is still the old shelf, the new shelf is still the new shelf, and the net is the trap you're in.
Make sense?
Just remember, with every "end of the week" Advaxis is one week closer to the inevitable. And one of these days, we'll get to see that nice spike to a billion+ valuation.
I firmly believe the next big indicator that things are very, very close is after the pps crosses $10.
Clock is ticking. Not much time left.
Based upon the new job postings and time frame to typically get talent at director levels, seems Advaxis is anticipating big things within the coming months.
You all are making it sound like it's going to bust through $100 pps before the year is over
Of course crazier things have happened!
Weeks or months to hear on BP news?
I suspect within weeks.
Either way, this thing is gonna blow.
For those doubting the potential of a significant climb, check out Exel. In a year, it climbed 6X, taking an MC of ~1B to ~6B. Now do the same math with ADXS.
Translation, get to the ~1B MC, ~$25pps (which is still, a conservative and silly baseline), and then grow to 6B MC, ~$150 pps in about 1 year.
Yah, it could happen. Just watched it happen with Excel.
You are looking at the wrong number. It's not about the pps, it's about the market cap.
So, right now ADXS is at about 300 million (less cash on hand), which is basically "free" for what the irons they have in the fire. Conservatively, and I mean very conservatively, ADXS should be around ~2Billion in MC right now. Now, extend that with some growth and FDA approvals, and that 2B looks very small.
Take that info and do your math on the pps...