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My thought is that the only chance here is now the good-will towards FnF (rather than shareholders) of the Biden administration. Why?
Because the judiciary is largely opposed given the conservative majority at SCOTUS -- appeal to SCOTUS of any positive judgement for plaintiffs will succeed
So, what is left? Just administrative goodwill towards FnF with hope of positive blowback for shareholders
Too slim a reed for me at this point - share prices reflect that
More money for Biden's good works in affordable housing!!!
Maxine Waters will be happy...
The trend is not ur friend...
In the 1-2 year quiet period between legal developlments, the trend is obviously down cos it is dead money -- maybe some tax selling now
lol, thank you for the laugh to end the day...
run-up because....?
no catalysts here, just big plays unwinding, then elastic bounces back a little
lol, 9 dollars a common share? Not sure which case would be yielding that and why...
9 dollars a JPS share?
I am curious whether the rumor that JPS got offered par by Munchkin and turned it down is true
JPS holders would be the Dennis Schroder of finance
Dead cats do bounce, who knew?
JPS is NOT bouncing, ergo the intrinsic value is not moving
But we know there is a base of common holders who buy regardless... so...
The only surprise is that Carlos has not been institutionalized yet...
Maybe they have internet in the Spanish wards
Yeah, that is my thought... and JPS do not yet seem to have stopped their slide
As predicted, melting indeed
And the heat only just started to get turned up - I will get interested at 60 cents
See you there soon
Look at where the JPS is, the common should be WAY lower
Looks like we are seeing the common re-rate against the JPS, so this can go to 20 cents, yes
Think we are headed a lot lower tbh
No judicial catalysts for months or even years
I don't think it is oversold...
Ackman has a boatload of shares, if he is selling this will go for a while
Yeah, 5-10 year timeframe is about right for a payoff
If I buy some JPS, then it will be a sock-draw type purchase too -- put a little away, forget about it and maybe it hits a multi-bagger...
If not only a little lost, but I am still watching these JPS prices melt
You are braver than I stinkie, JPS still puking...
Lol, who is looking? Is Biden looking for that cos he owns it flat out with the powers to do whatever he wants says SCOTUS...
Just 2 years till last 2 cases come to trial, then 2-4 years for government/plaintiffs to appeal -- cos maybe another Federal judge drops the hammer and awards AIG-style judgement, or says FnF were worthless at NWS inception or just goes SCOTUS to say get lost hedgefund vultures...
$25 JPS going to a $1, so common going WAY under a buck imho
I hope you were a submarine commander -- Good luck!
After Ackman's SPAC debacle, who cares what Ackman is doing? He hits some homers, but overall hitting 200...
...and down it goes
More PFFFT, than BOOM...
My sentiment, thought I would not say look REALLY good, just look like they are worth a speculation now... tho getting cheaper...
The Dolla Holla...
I mean for the JPS of course -- might be worth a gamble
JPS at $1 means Nickel for common soon?
Hmmm
Yes, FNMFO is $5k for $100k face value but it is very hard to trade, 29 volume yesterday which is good for that one
This seems to be a gamble now on whether one or other federal court gives a positive judgement - plus a wild card possibility
Still thinking hard about it...
Gotten even cheaper and still going... I would buy some at 5% of par, ie $1.25 for the $25 pref...
May be coming FNMAT at $1.50 with a decent face yeild
Well, I waited, I can now get FNMAT at $1.5 while common is $1.2... wow
Parity in price is close...
I may buy some FNMAT and FNMAS, the price is not right -- I said I would buy at 10% of par, maybe I get 5% at this rate...
So basically, 2 years holding period at minimum - a little sobering, but market will tank at some point so counters that
I am sure this is pretty close to the bottom, so I might buy back in for a small position
Thanks for the evaluation of Lamberth -- you are right about a jury trial *if* it ever gets to a jury
You can get a lot of face value again at these prices, so provides a lot more room for recovery even on a BS judgement
Thanks for the feedback
Joseph, been a long time since I was over here
The price on JPS is great for someone like myself who holds nothing here, but I am VERY leery of court of claims timeline (we have sen how slow it goes) and on potential for valuing "taken" property at at time of NWS pretty low
Any thoughts on where JPS prospects are now? Always value your opinion
The JPS price tells you all you need to know about the hedge fund's analysis...
Still creeping down too
I cannot get past any court of claims case focusing on value of "taken" property at time of NWS... I have always feared an AIG style judgement, you win on principles and lose on cash value
Oh well...
I warned about Federal Courts... oh well...
Yeah, Mark "The Grim Reaper" Zandi...
But I think it will be another faceless suit
I warned about Federal Courts and how they behave -- SCOTUS bought the same "don't reward the hedgies" BS and then crafted ruling(s) to suit
Still got three cases, by my count, but we also know it takes years for cases to come to trial and then positive rulings are appealed for years as well
So, unsurprisingly, the FNMAS is down to $2.20 and less than 10 cents on the dollar.. maybe more losses to come today
Not sure I am buying even at these levels given the long timeline and dicey legal venues
GL to all longs here
Brooge, we have been to this rodeo before -- Federal judges questions need show nothing at all about what judgement they reach
Real tea leaf reading
PLUS Federal judges don't like to give away the government's money -- ever... We will see if these conservatives are different, but I would (and have not) put money on it
GL to you, I hope they do the right thing -- and it drops a bit more I may join you to some degree with a bet on JPS
No offence Bro, but it is under $2 so...
FNMAS is green, but still under $6
FNMAT is green but still under $5
Maybe a pop on SCOTUS, but what about a negative verdict? How does that affect the SP -- flat? Or another 20%, 40% down?
Still on the fence here -- waiting to get paid off in Ackman's SPAC... which runs on and runs on...
Miss out on what? More losses on common?
Holdenwalker account on twitter went private, anyone know why? Thanks, have not been following here except for slow decay in SP
CHOO CHOO!!!!
Train to hell?
I will board the train when I hear the conductor give the dolls holla - it is coming...
Starts at the end of days...
The PSH meeting is 9am ET on 18th... Thanks for the ideas.
I do not think they announce in the PSH CC -- I think they go this Tuesday maybe with the 13F's announced in tandem...
Fingers crossed
Michael Kao had a good explanation, and one I had suspected:
There were one or more hedge funds that were heavily long JPS which had also then shorted common
Those hedge funds were recently selling JPS (either cos they changed their thesis after Trump loss or to cover losses on meme stock shorts)
Once they sold JPS, they covered the short -- hence we had a bump in the common price alongside a dip in JPS price
The other point is that common and JPS holders have a difference in their delusion quotients...
Kthomp, I thought about mentioning the letter agreement but why bother?
Thanks for the confirmation
I don't -- yet -- own any JPS. The trend is down, as is the trend on common, so I will wait a little longer to buy in...
The liquidation preference being paid down in no way affects the warrants -- sure warrant exercise can be challanged in court cos ANYTHING can be challenged in court. But no case will win against warrants cos no case was made against original agreement between FnF and FHFA/Treasury...
But believe what you will...
Bradford is right, most likely a remand back to the lower court -- just hope there are instructions/rulings favorable to plaintiffs...
I would obviously be in the right place...
For example, absolutely nothing that SCOTUS rules on will (a) stop the exercise of the Treasury's warrants for 80% of the common nor (b) stop FHFA/Treasury offering huge amounts of new common nor (c) stop FHFA/Treasury offering to convert all JPS to new common at the price of the new offering
SCOTUS is ruling on completely orthogonal matter... but, of course, I don;t know what I am talking about
GL to all longs, some will need