We have heard about the reports of the recent discovery of extensive aquifers beneath the Lotikipi Plain. Below is an excerpt from the final technical report on the matter done for UNESCO. It provides some interesting findings about the types of sediments encountered by the wells they bored. Let's hope these porous sediments exist deep below and that they are charged, not with water, but with oil!

Some further reading on basins in NW Kenya:

Tectonics and Sedimentation: Implications for Petroleum Systems

On page 184, there is a nice map showing the oil fields in Sudan, and one can see how they follow a trajectory heading toward Block 11A.

Takeaways for Block 11A from the Geosoft presentation referenced by TOB:



Compare the basins shown by Geosoft above with maps from ERHC's SeeThruEquity presentation:



In both sets of maps, you can see not only the Lotikipi basin but also the apparent basin (blue-green) entering into the block from the SW. What is exciting is that southern basin seems to be in the same "valley" as the basin where Tullow struck oil (see ERHC's map on the right above; albeit that map is probably from low resolution Bouguer readings).

Below is a Geosoft map showing Euler solutions, but notice how the southern basin is more defined (right above red caret below):


(Apparent southern basin^?)

Note that the TVK-4 seismic line is shown in the first and second maps of this post, and it was used by Geosoft as the backbone to produce a model of what lies beneath the surface, combined with other data:



The TVK-4 line did not go through the deepest part of the subterranean Lotikipi basin, but rather, to the south of it. Nonetheless, this model shows the basin to be pretty thick, even at this spot. The question is, what lies beneath the rhyolites?

The primary purpose of Geosoft's presentation was to show how available data can be used to model the thickness of possible reservoir-quality sediments; they were not focusing on other aspects of petroleum exploration:


Their conclusion:

Yep, I keep remembering Dan's reply to you after the rights offering, but before the results were released:

Did you notice the "Enjoy Happy Week 12/24 - 1/1!" link above?

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95256177

Evidently IHub premium features are enabled for ALL thru 1/1. So enjoy the Advanced Search and Private Messaging while you can.

Advanced Search is great for finding something you know you've read, but don't want to manually wade through a bunch of messages to find it.

But hurry, only two days left! (I just now noticed it.)

Yeah, makes one wonder even more why he didn't participate and if it had something to do with the deal cut with Cepsa (or whomever) on Block 11A. It will be interesting to see what the "other considerations" are in that deal, although Dan seemingly endeavored to temper our expectations with his don't expect "a bag full of goodies" response.

See top-most sticky post above.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94714620

Are you sure you are current with ERHC news? The company announced exactly what you say.

Although I didn't say they were close, "close" can be defined in a number of ways. Close can be in terms of distance, or it can be in terms of trend and geology.

It is the latter that is more important in the oil business. And the map in Adamantine's PDF shows the trend and geology.

You may have missed another Adamantine PDF link I posted, entitled Kenya 11b - Its Got Oil. That document shows the geological trends extending into Block 11B and ERHC's Block 11A, which is right next door. Both blocks are showing very favorable FTG results.

The 10K states "55% of its (ERHC's) participating interest", so that is why I'm thinking ERHC's resultant interest will be either 36% (90% - 49.5% - 4.5%) or 38.475% (85.5% - 47.025%), depending on whether "participating interest" includes or excludes Circle's portion.

Whatever ERHC ends up with, what matters most is what they find below. After all, 36%, 38.475%, or 100% of nothing is still nothing.

But like you, I am looking forward to learning about the complete terms of the farm-out.

TOB, thanks for clearing up the mystery. Welcome back!

If the farm-out deal is 55% of ERHC's residual interest (55% of 85.5), then that would give the new partner 47.025% and leave ERHC 38.475%.

Factoring it on the entire 90% yields 35.5%, as calculated here.

If NOCK's back-in share comes entirely from ERHC's interest, then subtract 10 from either of the figures above, to arrive at ERHC's ultimate interest: 28.475% or 25.5%.

If NOCK's back-in share is prorated across all partners, then ERHC's remaining interest could be as high as 34.6275%.

However, ERHC could still opt to farm-out an additional portion of their interest for cash.

Interesting... the 10K says Circle is entitled to a 5% carry, but the Circle Oil & Gas site says 4.5%, with ERHC having 85.5%:

I agree 100% kobi. Lots of tax-loss selling to cover lots of gains from this bull market run-up. And some of those sellers may once again become buyers in about 30 days or less, once the wash-sell period has passed.

Thanks much, farrell. I think it will be a happy new year for ERHC.

Once we get beyond this EOY tax-loss selling, I think the share price will gain some traction, especially as more details about Block 11A in Kenya become known and further progress is made in Chad. A farm-out of one or both EEZ blocks would be icing on the cake.

SM, if you look at the PDF linked in this post, it provides a map that is about as good, showing the proximity of those 5 wells to Block 11A, and more:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95279707

Deleted the link to the second post, as it had more to do with the Lotikipi basin in the north.

bmu, this post provides information on the basin thought to enter in the south of Block 11A:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94155761

Take a look at this pre-FTG Adamantine brochure on Block 11B. It's enthusiastically entitled, "Kenya 11b - Its Got Oil".

Midway down the right side it has a map based on Bouguer gravity measurements, and the yellow lines are identified as fault patterns, similar to the FTG results.

I like the positivity and assuredness of that title!!!

P.S.: Just noticed this link was posted by tryoty back on September 7.

I'm not a geologist, but that's how I interpreted it. Looks like the FTG allowed them to more precisely identify the fault lines shown here:



Notice the fault lines and basin shown in Block 11A. Will be interesting what ERHC's FTG elucidates regarding those features as well as the basin thought to enter Block 11A in the south.

Nice map from Adamantine Energy, "String of Pearls", which shows the proximity of recent finds to ERHC's Block 11A, as well as the proposed pipeline:

http://www.adamantineenergy.com/pdfs/String%20of%20pearls.pdf

Here is an overlay of the block/basin map I posted previously on top of a satellite image of northern Kenya.



You can get a better view of the geography of the block here. If you zoom in, you can see that the A1 is a paved highway. At Lokichogio, there is a road that trails off to the east, toward the basins.

And here is another basin map, from Bowleven (posted earlier):

Southern Man, again, the map that I posted is not from a paper discussing water basins or aquifers; it is discussing hydrocarbon prospects, which is quite clear when one reads what is printed at the bottom of the map.

The map description itself says, "Map showing probable prospective areas (shaded black/gray) for Hydrocarbons in the Study Area basin."

You'll note that at the bottom of that map between 35°E and 36°E it shows the Lokichar Basin (same color), and they are not talking about gushing water there these days, but rather gushing oil.

Whatever the case, we will not know whether commercial hydrocarbons exist below the Lotikipi plains until someone drills. There are no guarantees in this business. However, it is on the map as being prospective. - LT

P.S.: Furthermore, if you re-examine the map I posted here, you will see that most of the basin is in Block 11A. The lines are faint, but it's clear to see if you look closely.

SM, while it has been reported that a large underground aquifer exists in the area, in the context of Bernard Kipsang Rop's paper, the black and gray areas on the map I overlaid on the block map are indeed meant to represent possible hydrocarbon basins, as can be seen from the caption underneath the source image:

Kobi, 55% of 90 is 49.5%, leaving 40.5% for ERHC. 40.5% - 5% (Circle) = 35.5%. If NOK's additional back-in share comes out of ERHC's interest, then that leaves 25.5%. If prorated between ERHC and the farm-in partner, then it leaves ERHC with 31% and the partner with 44%.

Yeah, and we pretty much know what the book likely prognosticates from this reference (same author):

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=78941877

A big fat basin in Block 11A!

No, I think the weakness in the share price is due to tax-loss selling and not enough buyers willing to meet the bid. This would be the worst time to float a secondary offering.

Once the 30-day wash-sale waiting period passes and ERHC announces the details of its farm-out, then we'll see what happens. There may be believers currently selling now that will want to replenish their shares at that point. Plus, there are a number of other newsworthy events that could happen in the coming months that could attract buyers.

Just give it time. - LT

My thoughts exactly, OC. Good find, arnim!

Even though it is 7 years old, the article (if factual) provides good insight into how interested in Kenya CEPSA was, as well as being highly motivated. ERHC needs an aggressive drilling partner.

My first thought was, if they truly are ERHC's new partner, then why did it take them so long to make a move in Kenya? Perhaps they got fed up with the government of Kenya, but Tullow/AOC's recent successes became a catalyst for renewed interest.

Looking forward to the approval of the LOI, and finding out the full terms of the partnership (whoever the other party may be). This article certainly lends credence to the rumor that CEPSA is the new partner.

Your comments are out of touch with this company's history and capability. Maybe you need to research what lovingmelongtime refers to. ERHC found partners not just for one block in the JDZ, but three blocks, and received generous "consideration" for each farm-in. And that was an unproven oil province.

In Kenya, oil has already been proven in the geological play.

I think this pretty much summarizes where we are as far as the JDZ goes: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=88850271

As a facilitator, ERHC has been able to attract interest in exploration blocks. That is the value-added they bring to the table for areas like the JDZ and EEZ. I would think that the JDA and STP would have to respect them for that role; and especially now, they need them more than ever.

Maybe ERHC will be able to work its magic again in the JDZ. We shall see; but for now all eyes are on Kenya and Chad for more immediate results.

Perhaps we'll have a surprise announcement for the EEZ too.

Thanks much, Tamtam.

If Dangote EER is now Block 1's "lone stakeholder", then that confirms that Addax (Sinopec) left the block too.

What is the source of this citation?

I wondered if that was the case earlier. What you say makes sense. It sure seems as though someone is dumping shares.

Wouldn't there have to be a SEC filing if such a large number of shares were privately placed, though?

Can't last forever.

Can't be dogmatic about it, but it looks like there is a little more seismic available for the eastern part of ERHC's EEZ Block 11 than was done by PGS:



These are 2D seismic lines (in red) shot as part of the EquatorSPAN project (see Southern Man's original post, to which this is a reply) and overlayed on the ANP-STP block map.

This seismic, together with those from PGS, could fill in some blanks on that portion of Block 11.

Here's EquatorSPAN seismic from the line that goes from the "6" in Block 6 SE toward and above the little pennisula of Gabon:
http://www.iongeo.com/content/includes/globes2011/sdisplay.asp?span=Equator-Gabon_GADT-5600.jpg&w=1500&h=432

EquatorSPAN brochure: http://www.iongeo.com/content/documents/Resource%20Center/Brochures%20and%20Data%20Sheets/Data%20Sheets/Data%20Library/DS_GEO_EquatorSPAN.pdf

Here's a video showing how seismic can be integrated with 3D-FTG to produce an interactive model of an area:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/fOLPR7jMig8

Pretty cool.

Bell Geospace processes the FTG data and provides the resulting modeling of the area, which can be 3D. I don't think this takes a lot of time.

Here's an example of FTG to identify sub-basalt geology, which is exactly what ERHC is up against:

http://bellgeospace.com/doc/Bell-Geospace-3DFTG-noLE.PDF

This fact sheet concludes by saying:

Yeah, I don't really think the third party is Offor.

The most logical conclusion (as espoused in prior posts) is that ERHC's farm-in partner paid for it as an advance on the LOI terms.

Perhaps this was one of the "considerations" mentioned in today's update, along with the carry. Hopefully cash was part of it too.

Don't think so. He'd ultimately be shooting himself in the foot, since he owns many more millions of shares than he would be getting via a private placement.

It's possible that if shares were issued already to the third party who financed the FTG, they are now dumping them. But we'll just have to wait and see what the next 10-Q tells us, if not before.

At this point, it is what it is. The main thing is that the company is making great strides in execution of its business plan. If they continue to do that, the share price will follow.

So right, king.

If they are going to kindle a thriving investment following, ERHC needs to work it like some of the other minnows do. I just hope it doesn't stop after turning the reins of the operatorship over to their new partner. I hope they make allowance for information flow as part of their JOA with that entity.

Today's update...

True enough. The main problem with seeing down under in Block 11A are the volcanics that overlie the area. But the FTG will help with that, as well as modern seismics.

Today's update from ERHC is certainly encouraging. We have basins and more than likely reservoir rocks; now we need source rock and traps. The subhead from the update points in that direction: "Evidence that rift basin similar to other nearby discoveries extends into exploration block".