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My regret in owning shares of KBLB for such a long time is centered around two problems: I believed what Thompson said and I believed what Thompson strongly implied.
Having been burned by his announcements on multiple occasions, I’m not so easily trusting what he says now.
You think I should simply abandon the past. For me, prudence suggests a more measured approach.
From my lengthy history with the company, Thompson deserves nothing more.
Mojo: “If there has been and still isn’t any proof and the whole thing could still fail, then why, after all these years of holding back, did Vietnam allow Kblb into Lam Dong?….and why after all these years, has the VSA decided to fully endorse Kblb?…”
Promises, promises, promises. The hope of money. The recognition that a failure on the part of KBLB won’t negatively affect the VSA.
What do they have to lose?
The silk shown in December was supposed to be a test. I suspect they were testing Prodigy’s ability to develop and maintain a colony of hybrid parents, their ability to cross-breed the parent strains for Gen-1 hybrids, the ability to transport the eggs successfully, and the ability of GSS to rear the silkworms. Nothing especially spectacular on anyone’s part, but just making sure that the proper protocols were in place.
I also suspect that the crop was small because of losses along the way. As far as we know, the hybrid eggs were delivered to Vietnam in January of 2023 and no increases in silk inventory were reported until the final quarter. The increase in Q4 inventory was less than a thousand dollars. For a year’s effort to increase the size of the parent breeding pools and producing silk, they ended up with only a few hundred dollars worth of silk.
Since that time, all of the focus in the PRs has been on BAM-1. BAM-0 was, simply put, a bust. KBLB ended up having to pay GSS nearly $100,000 because they couldn’t provide viable eggs that produced viable silkworms for almost an entire year.
BAM-1 is coming, so clean out Prodigy, make sure everything is ready for the new strains. KBLB would not want some of the BAM-0 eggs hanging around to get mixed up in the production of BAM-1. The same is true of GSS: get the facility cleaned and scrubbed down in preparation for BAM-1.
We both know that we are speculating at this point. I’m simply providing the reasons why I believe KBLB is not producing at this point.
I’m more hopeful now than I was early last December. BAM-1 may be a smashing success. It may be good enough that KBLB can produce some serious quantities of silk while perfecting the quad-valent parent lines.
As for being onboard, I’ve probably owned my block of shares longer than you have. Not claiming this was the best investment strategy, only that some of my shares date back to the time prior to the Army contract.
‘Quick’ and ‘shouldn’t be long’ filling in for ‘soon?’
As long as you are exceptionally vague, you can’t be wrong. Am I right?
Lol. Spot on.
DiamondHealer: “IDK. I thought this signed agreement would raise PPS.”
Simply put, Thompson has cried ‘Wolf’ too many times and investors are cautious. Thompson has made it clear that he believes BAM-1 will be a success. To his credit, this belief appears to be based on considerably more expertise than similar predictions in the past.
Depending on your circumstances, buying more shares may be worth the self-evident risks.
Jetow: “I believe we are at or near full production today.”
I believe you are mistaken. KBLB has never PR’d that production is ongoing. They have not reported any additional silk produced since December. Why? Because fantastic news should be kept quiet, or because the news … isn’t fantastic.
Jetow: “I believe we will mass produce tons of spidersilk if BAM-1 is or isn't a full success.”
Thompson is acting exactly like someone who has great confidence in the success of BAM-1. That confidence may or may not be grounded in truth. Unlike previous efforts to ‘scale and sale,’ Thompson has consulted with experts who probably know a lot more about silk production than he does, so his confidence is more likely to be justified, IMHO.
But BAM-1 could still turn out to be a complete failure. He has the quad-valent hybrid model under development that should be ready around the end of the year. I’m guessing he could limp along until then even with a complete failure of BAM-1, but it would not be pretty.
Jetow: “It means we won't have to start over. I believe we will have a success with BAM-1, even if it requires refinement.”
Or a complete replacement with the quad-valent hybrid model.
I believe Thompson will know a lot more about the success or failure of BAM-1 by mid-June. Whether he will share with investors is another matter. If successful, we will probably get some kind of notification. A failure will most likely result in ongoing silence…
The KBLB way.
I believe that Ben reported to one of the posters (I’ve forgotten who reported this) that production is continuing in Vietnam using the existing silkworms.
I’m questioning Ben’s statement as being truthful. That was the distinction I was trying to draw.
If KBLB is still producing silk in Vietnam, their failure to disclose this information is reckless, irresponsible, and unreasonable.
Why on earth would KBLB be accomplishing the milestone they believed they could reach nearly a decade ago … without telling investors about it? Because Thompson wants to punish his long-term investors? Because he doesn’t want potential buyers to realize his dream has become a reality?
Senseless hardly seems strong enough a word.
Jetow, thanks for the honest response. You end with:
“Stop badmouthing the company and look for the brighter side. I believe it's there.”
There is that word again: believe.
I believed for quite some time. We both know why my confidence in KBLB eroded significantly. No point in rehashing those points.
I’ve acknowledged positive developments starting when the photo appeared in December. My shaky prediction is that KBLB will achieve ‘first silk’ in mid-June. You have probably seen the reasoning behind that prediction several times from my posts. There are a few reasons why this is a shaky prediction.
First, a poster reported that Ben indicated that production has continued in Vietnam using the same silkworms that produced the December hank. I accept the veracity of that report, but I am still suspicious that production shut down while awaiting the new Bam-1 silkworms. At the latest, investors should learn in mid-May, when the next quarterly report arrives.
Second, the mid-June prediction was made not knowing how many Bam-1 parent eggs were shipped to Vietnam. It could be a generation earlier or a generation (or two) later depending on those numbers.
Third, we have the mysterious and unheralded disappearance of the Spydasilk joint venture from the 10-K. Spydasilk.com remains an active website with the same unhelpful information it has long featured: “Coming soon.” I don’t know what to make of this development.
Do I think we will hit Mojo’s mark of $1 per share by June? No. Do I believe funding from the DoD is a SLAM DUNK? No. Do I believe there are more hopeful signs now than we’ve seen in several years: Yes. I’ve said that many times since December.
I understand the skeptics. I can’t bring myself to recommend the stock to friends or family. I’m not buying more shares. But I feel less anxious about my investment and more hopeful.
For now, that’s as close as I get to ‘believe.’ After all this time, predicting an important positive development is 10 weeks away doesn’t seem like ‘badmouthing the company.’ That’s all the time we will need to see how your belief squares with mine.
If success arrives sooner than 10 weeks, I’ll celebrate. If it arrives in 10 weeks, I’ll celebrate. If it doesn’t arrive in the next 4-5 months and we don’t have a good explanation, I’ll get a lot more nervous again. Again.
Jetow: “I do believe we are much closer than many think.”
Certainly true, not only for the current moment, but also pretty much the last 3 or 4 years. Let me ask you a question:
Do you ever feel that, at any time during the past 3 or 4 years, you believed we were much closer than we actually were?
Great catch. This is a disconcerting development. No wonder KBLB put out a PR looking for partners.
Kings got some free shares and KBLB walks away from the wedding, empty handed.
Ouch.
If I were interested in trading KBLB, I might pay more attention to the charts you find so fascinating. The much vaunted Golden Cross from months ago turned out to be a Golden Double-Cross as far as I could determine: the price went down for quite a while.
Trading shares of KBLB is not worth the effort. Tax rates are too high.
I’m pretty sure we are filling in a gap somewhere. It’s all in the charts, you see. But because of my considerable prowess in technical charts, I can predict with perfect confidence the price tomorrow will rise. Or fall. Or stay the same.
Nailed it.
One thing this makes clear: the new facility is not going to be used for raising silkworms for production. 700 square meters is too small for that.
As I said previously, this facility will be used for processing and handling silk, not silkworms.
KBLB reported the delivery of a hank of silk on Dec. 14. I’m taking them at their word that this happened in Q4, 2023.
No increases in inventory were announced in Q1, Q2, or Q3 of 2023. Only in the final 10-k do we see the increase in inventory.
Your argument that the increase in the value of the inventory was due to post-production improvements in the value of their inventory could only be possible if the hank shown had actually been delivered in 2022. That was before KBLB reported delivery of the two-parent hybrids to Vietnam.
That would entail a lot of lying on the part of Thompson. I believe he distorts the situation by use of clever terms, but lies of this magnitude strike me as implausible.
We may just have to agree to disagree on this one.
I’ll pay attention to you when you start making sound arguments instead of silly attacks. Whenever I look at one of your posts, all I see is “Blah blah blah.”
I thought you might be referring to “Domestic Industrial Capability for Distributed Manufacturing Enabled by Modular Bioindustrial & Reusable Assets” so I checked that on the DoD website. This RFI is now “inactive” and there do not appear to be any more recent announcements related to this program.
I’m thinking the whole program might have been cancelled. This is not a certainty from the information we have, but it’s not looking good, either.
SLAM DUNK er somebody stole the hoop??
Would appreciate a link to whatever you found.
Mojo, the section of the 10-K is entitled “Current assets.” If KBLB didn’t consider the silk to be a part of their ‘inventory’ but it had been shipped somewhere else for processing, it would have been another kind of asset that needed to be reported on the 10-K. It’s something of value owned by the company — an asset of one sort or another. Should have been reported on the 10-K.
This could be a matter of sloppy accounting. (Wouldn’t be the first mistake KBLB made on a quarterly/annual report.) Perhaps it came in so late they decided to ignore the asset — maybe the paperwork hadn’t been finalized by the end of the year.
In that case, at some time prior to the December crop, KBLB received $304 worth of silk. A smaller crop from a previous generation, perhaps.
I don’t think we can resolve this issue. I believe the hank of silk that Thompson was holding in the December photo was worth more than $304. So I guess I’m chalking this one up to an accounting issue instead of attempting to diminish the quantity of silk he was holding and/or devalue the price per kilo.
We’ll learn more later, I hope.
Jealmc, I probably wasn’t clear. In 2022, KBLB reported their inventory was worth $6,580. In 2023, KBLB reported their inventory was worth $6,884, an increase of $304.
If this increase was due to some kind of processing on the original inventoried silk, that would mean the hank of silk KBLB showed in December was worth $0.
We know they took delivery of silk in late December, we’ve seen the picture. KBLB reported only an increase of $304 for the entire 2023 year. There simply aren’t a lot of ways to square the evidence we have with the change in inventory value. That’s the problem I still don’t understand.
I saw the write-off. I’m guessing that KBLB had to pay GSS because KBLB couldn’t supply silkworms to raise, so they were making up the lost revenue on the part of GSS.
That’s speculation, and I think this is pretty much in line with what you were suggesting.
But the inventory is different. This is the value of silk they have in their custody. (Those secret warehouses we’ve been hearing about for so long.)
The connection may be that KBLB was able to provide some eggs along the way and GSS produced some silk, but it doesn’t explain the discrepancy between the photo and the reported increase in inventory.
Piling mystery upon mystery — the KBLB way.
Jealmc, here is the issue I’m confronting.
The value of the inventory increased by $304 from 2022 to 2023, according to the 10-K, which covers the period from January 1 to December 31 in 2023.
We saw Thompson taking delivery of a hank of silk in a photo taken in December. People are estimating the weight of that hank around 25 kilos, though KBLB has never specified the exact weight.
Obviously that hank of silk was added to KBLB’s inventory in 2023. The value of the inventory (reported in the 10-K) only increased by $304. That seems to indicate the hank of silk he was holding was only estimated to be $304.
If we consider the hank of silk to be 10 kilos, and each kilo has a value of $30, that gives us the $304. But valuing their raw silk at only a value of $30/kilo seems low to me. The weight of that hank of silk seems like it exceeds 10 kilos. By just about any measure I can think of, Thompson should be holding more than $304 in silk in the picture he posted.
Did KBLB not include the silk in their 2023 inventory? Is the hank of silk much smaller than we estimated? Is KBLB using a very low value per kilo of their silks?
Right now, I don’t have a good answer to these questions.
Mojo: “If you want to be negative, you should use the scare tactic that now Kim can sell all his 200 mil personal shares and still maintain control of Kblb…”
That is not true. His share of the voting power from his 3 super voting shares is listed in the 10-k as being about 36%.
The 10k. There was an error in my post. The year should have been 2023. If you check the 10-k, search for ‘inventory’ you will see the increase from the previous year (2022).
I’m not particularly happy with this number. It seems to devalue the hank of silk we saw. I’d give Thompson a thousand bucks for it, easily.
Thompson gave himself another super-voting share with the voting power of 200 million shares, as you noted. This gives him (and Jon) just over 50% majority control, but 36% is through his 3 super-voting shares.
Thompson also has a (new) option to purchase 10 million more shares at 4 cents/share. This option expires in 10 years. If KBLB ever hits a buck a share, he would net almost $10 million in the blink of an eye.
In other news, the inventory of silk increased by $304 in all of 2023. We saw the hank of silk. It was worth $304.
I can’t really figure that one out. If he was shouldering 10 kilos, that would equate to a value of $30/kilo. That seems low for weight and also low for value.
But the message is clear: in all of 2024, KBLB produced $304 worth of silk.
Operation silkworm speed in action!
Roughly 45 days from now, we should get the next 10-Q and that will tell us how much silk was raised from January to March of this year. Getting info out of KBLB is like getting pearls out of a clam. Ugh.
Want2retire: “Reading the recent PRs and seeing how a path to finally successfully producing significant quantities of product exists”
Well, we saw how a path existed before until … it lead nowhere to a dead end instead of successful production.
AND
Recent PRs include the usual peculiar qualifiers and oblique verbiage instead of clear and straightforward statements.
AND
Recent PRs continue a long tradition of failing to provide sufficient transparency to reassure investors KBLB knows what it is doing.
BUT
The change in behavior (releasing PRs on a frantic schedule rather than stretching them out longer than the time dentophobics schedule ‘regular’ dental checkups could be a signal that Thompson has more reason for confidence in success than at any time in the past.
SO
I’m giving this situation begrudging hope.
By all means, KBLB fans should feel free to snap up all the extra shares they want at bargain prices. Back the truck up. When that one is full, buy another truck and back the new one up as well. (Hope you have a lot of practice backing up trucks. Please avoid bridge pylons.)
(The preceding suggestions are not considered sound investment advice unless, in the near future, KBLB has a breakout moment, in which case I will pretend this advisory notice was merely a routine precaution provided by any sound financial advisor.)
I checked the SEC website and the due date is Monday, April 1. If the deadline is on a weekend or a holiday, the due date is moved to the next business day.
KBLB can also file a 12b-25 the day after the filing is due (April 2) and obtain a 15-day extension to file. Presumably that would allow them to file on April 16 without being late.
We’ll see what happens Monday and Tuesday.
We’ve also seen a lot of criticism about goo needing sugar and therefore consuming valuable food resources. These researchers found a way to use a different food source (plastic) that is abundant and cheap, so their production costs might be lowered.
It simply made no sense for KBLB to PR this material other than to keep up their rate of releasing PRs. I still maintain that Thompson is engaged in a PR campaign (not simply releasing PRs when the mood suits him) because he is working to gather attention before what he hopes will be a big announcement.
This is a smart play that should help investors realize a quick and significant increase in share price if KBLB manages to get over the hurdles of production, sales, and revenue.
Monday is the deadline for KBLB to submit their 10-K to the SEC. Having to prepare that report while some or all of the folks involved are in Vietnam and still trying to release PRs for a campaign can be a real strain on a small shop like KBLB. But the 10-K is our next opportunity to learn how much silk was produced in the last quarter. It won’t be too long before we get the 10-Q for Q1 and that will also provide an update on silk production (through looking at changes in their inventory).
So, we will know a lot more about actual production amounts no later than mid-May.
It’s a strange PR. Nothing to do with KBLB. There are many scientific reports along the same lines that KBLB has not chosen to PR. So why this?
“No news, but we gotta keep putting out something…” must be the mentality at KBLB HQ right now. Hopefully they are busy putting the last bells and whistles on the 10-K due Monday.
Tick-tock.
Yeah, we’re only 10 days away from the 1-year anniversary of KBLB’s submission of background info.
To date, we have received no word yet that the DoD has asked for a formal proposal nor has there been any indication that the DoD is providing funding.
But funding was a ‘sure thing.’ Mojo told everyone so. He’s never wrong. So we just have to wait patiently by the window with folded hands, waiting for the happy news to arrive. Maybe next year…
New report out on the synthetic spider silk industry, including projections for the market from 2023 to 2040. Here is a link:
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/synthetic-spider-silk
Their list of synthetic spider silk companies:
AMSilk GmbH
Kraig Biocraft Laboratories
Spiber
Bolt Threads
Inspidere
Seevix
Spintex Engineering
Huh.
Present and future sales of Spider Silk:
Bolt Technologies: $0.00
Spiber: $0.00
KBLB: $0.00
None of these companies will ever sell spider silk. Not now, not next year, not in the decades down the road.
You have been told this many many times. Please see a neurologist about your memory problems. New drugs have become available to delay the onset of dementia, but the sooner these treatments are started, the better the long-term prognosis,
As I have told you time and again, private companies don’t have to release quarterly and annual reports to the public that reveal sales and revenues. But the Spiber website has shown several products that have been sold over the years, so they must have made sales and received revenues. Bolt likewise.
Do you have serious memory problems? You might need to be tested for dementia. If so, repeating the second grade won’t help. Hopefully you have people who can care for you during your serious cognitive decline.
Funny you should say they don’t mention spider silk at all. Look over at their academic papers. The article in the Wall Street Journal last October called their fibers “brewed silk.” What did the Wall Street Journal call KBLB fibers?
Oops. Didn’t mention them at all.
Let me see if I can make this easy for you to understand. Suppose you got a zero on a test. Timmy got 1/2 point. Sally got 3 points.
Who got the least points on the test? YOU!
Zero means nothing. Spiber is not nothing. Bolt is not nothing. Both have more products and sales than KBLB.
Until KBLB can produce enough silk to make products and sell them, Bolt and Spiber are ahead of the game.
This can change. I’m not saying that you can’t do better on a second assignment. If you do well in the rest of the class, you might beat both Timmy AND Sally. But as long as you keep scoring zeroes on your assignments and they don’t, you are going to be behind.
KBLB may produce silk. They may make products. They may make sales. They may have revenues. I’ve got some money riding on that possibility. Signs are looking up, as I’ve acknowledged since December. But until they start racking up some statistics in the products, sales, and revenues, KBLB will remain in last place.
Even when KBLB produces and sells products, it may be difficult to compare various fibers. No one seems to publish much data about various characteristics of fibers. KBLB released information about the toughness of one of their silks. How that compares to what they are producing today is unknown. But products, sales, and revenues depend on far more than just toughness.
The collaborators will give us some indication about how desirable different fibers are. So far, Spiber is clearly ahead, with lots of different collaborators. KBLB has Kings/MtM. Not nothing, but not North Face, either. I’d prefer North Face over Polartec, but perhaps Polartec is in play as well and that will be good news.
Given that I’ve provided these facts several times, all I can suggest is that maybe you should repeat second grade? You really seem to have difficulty understanding some pretty simple ideas.
Post the details on KBLB’s sales of spider silk.
They don’t have any.
They don’t plan any.
KBLB is making genetically modified silkworm silk with a small percentage of genes used in making spider silk.
Spiber is making genetically modified spider silk.
If anyone has bragging rights here, Spiber’s genetic sequences are probably closer to spider silk than KBLB’s.
I’m repeating myself even though you don’t appear to be able to comprehend facts. Maybe repeating 3rd grade might be helpful?
Bolt and Spiber have sold products and have revenue. If you want to consider how well KBLB is competing with them, it’s simple:
KBLB is losing.
Are you planning to take a hammer to our poor silkworms?
They have enough problems on their own. Hammers will not be good.
KBLB has a multitude of competitors. There are currently many companies listed on the OTC that have
No production
No sales
No revenue
All of them are in competition to see who can survive the longest given those unfortunate circumstances.
You seem to have missed the whole point of the article: they now have a way to raise yeast without sugar.
The article you provided undermines the whole argument you are trying to make.
Geesh.
Thank you. My inference that production of the initial hybrid silk had been shut down appears to be incorrect.
I wish Ben were writing the PRs instead of Thompson. So much greater clarity.
We’ll find out how much silk is being produced at some later date, I suppose. The next clue may be the 10-K likely appearing in the next week. April 1st is the deadline and the next 10-Q is due by May 15.
If nothing else appears, those reports should contain useful data.
Simple and still wrong, as confirmed by Ben.
Truth hurts.
No evidence because the story is wrong.
The idea that you were ‘kicked to the curb’ by KBLB fails the smell test and every other test, and has been denied explicitly by Ben, as I posted a long time ago.
People who live in the Fantasy KBLB world go to great lengths to disparage those who disagree, because they can’t argue against the evidence.