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Exactly, it's happening as planned.
Yeah, if you got in at around 9$ you have already profited for the trade. Keep in mind, somebody just bet 100 million MP will succeed. That's a lot of money involved. Watch the deal close and HMNY increase ownership to 64% taking the option. The IPO is entirely something else, but short term the deal looks like its got green light and it's happening.
It's just like they said, they settle with the old investor and terminated the agreement so they can borrow up to 100 million. That's exactly what happened like I said they will get capital injection prior to IPO. So 5 million notes for 100 million $. No lean on any of company asset. But if company goes BK or gets bought out, the notes holder will be paid in either stock or cash at the Notes holders choice. Stock should move up cus they just got 100 million more funding. MP deal is closing and it's happening soon. HMNY value just gone up 100 million based on the cash value from this investment. No stopping MP it seems. They will move forward, either get on the train or get left behind.
Quick rough estimate. 100 million plus the disclosed 210 million of MP value is 310 million. 53% of that 164.3 million value for HMNY. That's not counting additional subscription increase since the Oct press release. 12$ + likely hitting 13 if more people got interested in investing.
Also, HMNY has the option to go up to 64% ownership of MP, and I also believe that will happen now that they have funding. So Stock value should be close to 200 million over about 13 million shares. it should soon move to 15$ plus deal close news and potentially other news. Rough target 15-20$ range short term.
Yeah, we knew dilution is inevitable. So far they seems to try and stabilize the price at 12$. I'll take a look at their filing in more detail.
When you buy in any stock, you need to know what its fair value is and not just chase blindly. Because the market will eventually correct itself and trade back to fair market value.
The short covering and chase frenzy plus CNBC news attracted all sorts of traders, and that cause the super nova, but you don't chase something like that if you're late to the party.
Next time you're considering to buy in a stock, take a step back, and look at what the stock is worth. If you're unsure, it's better not touch it until you know the answer. Don't rush things is all I can say.
It's not likely to go lower because the October 8k when they advanced the additional 6.5 million MP was revalued at 210 million. So the fair price is around 10$ a share. Unless we see bad dilution or bad news, we shouldn't go lower than current level. If you got shares at below 10 or even below 9, you're lucky to pick up the shares cheaper.
That chart looks like it's about to reverse soon.
Check out bullet point 3. I believe MP is about to get capital injection soon, and it will be none convertible senior notes.
On October 23, 2017, the Company and the Investor entered into a Third Amendment and Exchange Agreement (the “ Third Exchange Agreement ”) for the purpose of exchanging the New February Exchange Note for 947,218 shares of Common Stock (collectively, the “ Exchange Shares ”) and rights to receive 552,782 additional shares of Common Stock (collectively, the “ Reserved Shares ”), subject to a 9.9% beneficial ownership limitation and limitations under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(d) (the “ Rights ”). The Exchange Shares, the Rights and the Reserved Shares are referred to in this current report on Form 8-K (this “ Current Report ”) collectively as the “ Exchange Securities ”.
In exchange for the Exchange Securities, the Investor agreed to, among other things:
(i) terminate the Investor’s February Exchange Right, terminating the Holder’s right to receive any further February Exchange Notes, which would have had a principal amount up to $2.2 million and a $0.50 conversion price floor if issued;
(ii) (A) release all security interests held by the Investor in the assets of the Company and its subsidiaries, including Zone Technologies, Inc. and its proprietary RedZone Map™ product (“ RedZone ”) and the Company’s interest in MoviePass Inc. (“ MoviePass ”), (B) terminate each security agreement between the Company and the Investor, and (C) authorize the Company to file amendments to all UCC Financing Statements for the purpose of terminating the Investor’s security interests in the assets of the Company and its subsidiaries, including RedZone and the Company’s interest in MoviePass;
2
(iii) consent to the Company obtaining non-convertible senior secured debt financing from a qualified bank in an amount not less than $20 million and not more than $100 million while the August Notes remain outstanding;
Guys there was a hint in the recent 8k when they settled with the old investors. One of conditions was to consent and allow MP to barrow money up to 100 million if memory serves. That's a hint MP about to get capital injection in a big way prior to IPO. I'll read the sec filings over when I get time.
I don't disagree there is substantial risk here. If it was a different guy leading MP I'd leave the stock alone. I think Lowe have the business connections and respect of others that he will gain support for what he's trying to accomplish.
My concerns isn't so much on whether Lowe can do the job or not. We know HMNY may need to dilute and raise more money as subscription numbers grow. So it is clear to me the potential is great, but we could face dilution which can drop stock price if nothing to counter dilution.
At the signing of the deal, MP was valued at about 50 million. recent filing MP was valued at 210 million. HMNY advanced 11.5 million instead of the 5 million originally planned since subscription number blew up more than they expected. That to me is an indication that MP will need more funding. And, because of that we can potentially see dilution.
If MP burn rate is high, they will have to offset that cost with other revenue. I'm hoping to get some clarity whether or not they are able to strike more deals with either film makers, or any other advertisement through MP. Annual advertising can cost millions and there is no reason why MP can't take advantage of that as their customer base grow. The question is do they have enough funding to make it to that point when they can start generating revenue from other source other than the membership subscription?
Having experience in restaurant business, $5.95 all you can eat lunch buffet sounds just as bad of a losing business. But, when you got a lot of customers, it tends to even out and actually becomes profitable.
That is an indicator that on average the general public are mostly decent people and not just the smaller percentage that will either abuse or take advantage in a way that might be seen as below average.
Another word, most people in our society isn't so bad.
There will always be that small percentage of people who will abuse the service and take advantages unlike most other people. But, I think over all, MP should be ok.
That's why data mining is valuable when you can see the kind of statistics on how people behave in general. That's hard facts and reliable data a business model can be based on. I think people will be surprised to see the actual financial reports of MP when it becomes available.
I'm cautiously betting a smaller mount for now at around the 9$ mark. Keep in mind MP value went from 50 to 210 million. I see MP value double again by end of December. We should be trading back to 30$ after the deal close. Unless we get some bad news or crazy financing that puts a damper on the stock price. If that does happen, I'm loading more, if not, great stock value is preserved.
You're probably right. And I think he hired that guy because of his commercial experience. That tells me Odidi knows what he needed.
Just hope Odidi learns from his pass mistakes. As I mentioned a man can be very stubborn at times, but if he saw the end of the road, maybe it would be enough and not too late him to turn around.
Right now, I'm going to hold me shares, and let things sit for a bit. I'll come back another time to see how things goes.
Unfortunately, people will simply pass by with time. There are tons of opportunities out there to invest in. The stock at 90 cents is a good reflection of how well the company is doing.
My expectations at the moment is that IPCI will probably be ok. Stock will recover a bit next year. But, I don't see the company being a good investment to have that great return. Odidi will probably keep doing his thing, and revenue will probably go up enough to break even. Possibly another approval under the MNK deal. Everything else will just delay like they did for the last few years.
A small position is all I'm wiling to put into this company considering how cheap it is right now and potential catalysts going forward. It would not be wise to tie up my money right now until IPCI shows some sign of improvement to warrant a large stake in the stock.
Right now, I feel more like trading it from time to time rather than holding anything of significance.
He's sort of the CEO right now and he has to sign off on everything. Even if he isn't the CEO he's still majority owner and will be involved in the major decisions.
I doubt he feels comfortable handing over the seat to someone else especially when he has a large stake in the company. IPCI has no funding and revenue. Company is barely breaking even when running at low cost and a snail pace.
Even if a new CEO takes over, the immediate need is more funding to really move anything forward.
I do agree that Odidi being the CEO should place more trust in his employees to help him make better decisions. Some times a man can be very stubborn especially when the man is obsessed or heavily involved with his work. It could be a downfall and the worst thing a CEO can do is to try and do everything himself and not listening to reasoning.
The last CFO leaving could have been disagreements with how Odidi is running things. I don't think Odidi fired him. He left probably for the reason that he disagree with how things are run.
Either that, or he's just doing a poor job and feels he's not up for the job then leaves.
IPCI has the pipeline but the business world is complicated and you need the connections to all the right people to succeed. Odidi might be a good scientist, but he doesn't have the connections to the right people to help his company succeed. It's critical he hires the right person to help him out.
And he absolutely cannot do everything by himself. He's not superman and needs to realize that there are people that can do a better job at certain aspect of the company. So now we have this new CFO, who knows what will happen?
Yes, 40$ is kind of the rough value. Using 1 million subscriptions. Assuming no further dilution after the deal close at 13 million shares out.
Right now investors don't have much confidence yet, and people aren't placing that value on HMNY since the talk was around an unsustainable business model.
And yes each deal announced allows analyst to place value based on the potential revenue the deal may bring in. Plus nobody knows how much MP is losing money on the movie pass subscription or not versus usage and potential abuse until earnings report is out.
Then you got the whole going public thing that will come in the mix. It is difficult to place a value on the stock right now.
Yeah, I've been looking at Remoxy last year too. Guess Purdue will sue PTIE as well.
Swe77, I've followed many companies and saw many companies going under NASDAQ requirement. 180 days or 6 month extension is commonly granted for the company to regain compliance. IPCI will have to apply for the extension and provide a plan how IPCI will regain compliance. NASDAQ will then rule whether or not to grant such extension. Typically, it's not hard to get the first extension, and a company can appeal for even a second extension after the six month period. IPCI should have no danger of delisting at least for the next six months.
Plus NASDAQ will send a written notice to IPCI to warn IPCI of the deficiency. IPCI is required to file that as an 8k. So if it comes to that, rest assured, you'll see it. IPCI will then apply for the extension and will typically file that in an 8k as well.
They need a partner to do so. IPCI is a small company, they don't have the resources to market globally even if they get approval. Not happening on their own.
Seems like the recent buzz is around the changes on the terms for the service. Obviously people are abusing the service in many ways lol.
Buy a ticket each day and sell it. Potentially, you could have sold 30 tickets a month and only paying 10$. Sign up with 10 accounts and you're selling 300 tickets each month. Talk about crazy.
Or, you sign up to use the card then cancel on low seasons only to sign up again just to watch those new movies coming out.
MP sort of need to keep the bad apples out.
They already have this in the planning. They said MP will drive customers to local restaurants. So if McDonald advertise through MP, MP members gets deals going to McDonald. Win Win. A night out, you're gonna need food not just popcorn and soda. The impact grows as subscribers grow.
We should hear announcement as they make deals. Otherwise, simply watch the app on your phone. You start seeing advertisement, you will know.
This stuff going to take time. First thing first, they need to close the deal with MP and it will be soon.
Thanks for the heads up this could potentially drop hard. Depend on how they close that deal and how much the new shares will be offered.
We're looking at roughly about 4 million new shares and the deal was some 27 million to buy into MP. We could calculate the potential price of these new shares but need to read over all the sec filings to verify everything.
Things like how much cash HMNY have so far and how much more do they need to complete the 27 million deal.
HMNY will be advancing 11.5 million to MP which means they need another 15.5 or so. It's up to Ted to deal with the investors. Maybe they agree to buy in shares at current level, but if Ted offers news shares at 3-4$, he's going to potentially kill a lot of longs that are holding from this level. If Ted was able to raise money at close to current PPS, maybe we end up less than 13 million shares out when the deal close.
If they need about 16 million dollars offering 4 million shares to close the deal. We could be looking at a 4$ per share. That would be ugly.
Agree, I trade a chunk and only keep a small position in case this get some rocket fuel again. If it dips lower due to dilution, I'll have cash ready for entry. Too much is uncertain still, and MP value is hard to say.
Originally I believe they projected for a 12 month target of over 2 million customer subs puts MP at over 1 billion in value by next August. Citron obviously doesn't agree it's worth 1 billion yet.
But, taking half of that by year end of around 1 million customers. A very rough estimate would be 500 million. That's a low side estimate in my opinion. But MP value could go up if they make new deals using that data.
At the very least, they should be able to start bringing in some advertisement from the film makers on upcoming movies either in the APP or on the website. Playing a movie trailer can reach across 1 million movie goes, I think that's a good way to advertise a new film. Plus MP can tell the film maker if that person actually went and see the movie.
So even if the bigger movie chains don't get on board yet, MP should be able to bring in revenues from advertisements paid for by the film makers.
I would think MP can exceed the 500 million low side rough estimate. so 53% of that is abut 265 over 13 million shares out after the deal close should put us at 20 a share just based on the MP valuation and not adding HMNY own value or many other factors.
I am not claiming to be some expert, I am just giving people a rough idea what to expect. But, I don't know how things calculate if MP were to go public as well as how do HMNY maintain over 50% ownership? Will that result in further dilution of HMNY stock?
Or will HMNY do a merger with MP since HMNY is already establish on the market and reporting. We don't know how exactly HMNY is going to take MP public. Just hope Ted keeps and protect shareholders interest.
Feels like a pump is going on with the new articles. They got all the votes in the shareholders meeting. We still have dilution to come, just not sure what the numbers will be. But, it feels like a good quick trade happening.
I agree Sam, a lot of times it's not just about working with FDA and getting approval. You'll have to be able to compete and defend from competitions. That's probably more than anything and IPCI isn't wining the competition. It seems like IPCI have been in the last 4 years pretty much held up and not really moving anywhere fast. They do eventually gets some approvals, but it's a bit late and they seems to miss the best windows of opportunity. So then even if they did get approval, the generic drug no longer have the same value anymore simply because it's too late and too many competitions ahead of IPCI.
New interest comes with the new investor I guess. They have to be spending money on Regabatin for a reason. Why would you need to make sure your patents are good for no reason?
Right now, I'm feeling I want to pull out, but at the same time, there are enough reasons to risk a bit. So maybe I'll leave my shares alone since my average is currently at 1.15.
Need to see how things unfold with the new CFO and a new investor on board.
Let us hope Odidi comes to his sense. He alone doesn't have the resources to move a drug through timely approval. I think he realized that with Rexista.
The minimal funding he's putting into Rexista trying to cut corners for FDA approval only to end in disaster with missing trials and missing data. That's telling us, he's cutting corners. I don't think he doesn't know about these requirement because FDA spokes person plainly said, IPCI did not submit the required data.
He needs a strong partner to help him advance the pipeline. The small raise here and there won't be anything near enough to push a product to the market in a timely fashion.
PODRAS is the meat and bone of IPCI. Any early trial success will generate interest in investing in IPCI.
IPCi doesn't decided whether they get to stay on NASDAQ. Short term, they can get listing extensions, but if they can't fix the SP issue. The longer the time pass, the more likely they will delist because NASDAQ will kick them out whether they like it or not. But, I am not concerned about dilisting at this time. They can easily get 180 days extension and they are required to file sec filing so we will know about it. There is no need to be concerned about listing issue yet.
But, like I said, Odidi needs to boost moral or this could turn ugly if we hear nothing for the next few months. The fund got involved doesn't mean Odidi will agree to potential deals. It would be bad if things turn hostile when outside force trying to take control.
If anything, this potentially gets manipulated down even more than we think possible only to bounce later knowing the fundamentals still has some value long term.
What if we hit 0.50 a share in the next few months then bounce again for that trade? Maybe not 0.5 but we are seeing the 0.8 pretty soon. I am considering reducing my holding a bit even though I don't have much in IPCI at the moment to pick up some more if it does head lower.
I'll take 5$ a share, sell me some.
If we can be sure of the future and all knowing, we would be Gods :) The way I look at it is the length of time you're looking at the model. If you look at it in a 1-6 month time frame, MP is likely going to lose a lot of money. But, when you look at it from a 1-12 month time frame, you might see a different picture.
Say 600k users average of 2 movies a month per person at 9.95$ per ticket. MP would be losing about 9.95$x600k users a month just on the ticket cost. That I think scares people.
But we don't have the data to show the different users joining the membership at different point in time and exactly how much it average out among the 600k+ joined in August up to this point. Some people might go crazy and actually watched all the films out there, and MP could have paid 10x over just for those crazy folks.
I can see what the CEO is talking about because when I got my pass, I did not go to theater right away. I am however looking forward to see a few movies I really wanted to see coming out before or around the holidays.
So yes, it's kind of scary when you look at how much money they can potentially lose short term and it makes you doubt if they can sustain.
Maybe it's better to test the water a bit before you jump in. MP is either going to fail miserably or staying for a long long time.
They are "Big Data" right? They can tell you came within 100 yard of the theater, they can certainly tell if you're not there after check in.
Using GPS on the phone allow them to track your position. In away, that might be a privacy issue for some people if it gets used in a wrong way.
Bob, honestly, I could careless if you're right or wrong. I like to speculate about things and if I am wrong I am wrong, if I am right I am right. We're in a discussion to help everyone make a better choice. I still see we hit 1.2 million subs by year end not needing to rely on complicated calculations but based on simple facts that the company tells us.
The stock we can agree is on a decline short term. It doesn't take much to see where the market wants to move this. Just about getting to the buying point is all I care. With such short percentage, another squeeze is highly probable and a lot of people are betting on it including me.
Just waiting for my order to fill and I can kick back and relax a bit. So what you were right? Does that make you highly respected or something?
What I see is other people here are actually participating in a meaningful discussion to help others make a better investment choice. No body cares to see how right or wrong you are versus everyone else. It does not mean you have the respect of others.
Keep that in mind, and I rather hear useful input from you and continual calls on how you think things would unfold. I do not need you to tell me what to do.
Yes Knox, thing whole thing don't smell right. A while back we keep saying the deal did not disclose any details. IF they were filing in Q4, no reason why they can't disclose that as milestone and payment.
If no payments are expected until 2019, an RS becomes necessary. Otherwise, this goes to OTC. Not looking good with the law suits too. Company lose, it will cost more money. I do not recommend buying more shares, but that's just my opinion.
I would say Odidi absolutely did a poor job here. Not that he didn't deliver some last year but I don't agree with his running the ship under a tight budget.
He knew well ahead of time that Rexista and continual generic development is going to require more funding. In a way he was putting the company and share holders under unnecessary risk.
To run a successful company you're going to need a strong balance sheet with ample cash. He could have raised capital when we were running in the 3$. Give himself that cushion if Rexista delays and revenue don't come in fast enough. He could even start that PODRAS trial we've been hearing about.
It's like you're trying to run your family financials but you're only keeping 300$ cash on hand. You run into any unexpected expenses, you're likely going broke in a bad way.
I know we have talked about this in the past. I would rather see us with 20 million cash and being able to move things forward faster. I would hope he learn from past mistakes.
IPCI's goal shouldn't be to break even. It should be focused in unlocking PODRAS and the NDAs. We've heard nothing of starting PODRAS trails since we last hear about it earlier this year. I mentioned, that's what I really look forward too, and it would seems like a big let down.
I guess I'll check back another time to see if any interesting development.
Short term, this likely revisit the 0.8s and potentially bounce again to 1$ for that trade. If they kill this and delist from NASDAQ, it kills the trade too.
Unfortunately the stock got diluted however small the offering might be. More shares out for the same market value. This might have a hard time keeping that 1.10 floor. IPCI needs approval news bad.
However, longer term, things don't look that bad. Unless MNK unexpectedly ends the deal somehow , Seroquel revenue should steady increase come 2018. They might get to break even but another ANDA approval is actually more important than Rexista right now. The stock needs to that moral boost.
Originally, we were hoping for another approval some times year end, hoping that still holds true. There were two approvals from the year of 2016 if I am not mistaken. Just seems like it's overdue for one more either before year end or early 2018.
Getting close to that 10$ mark. I mean come on, their private peps getting 3$ a share, I want in on that. Gona take a small position after it goes below 10 and will average down it this actually hits 3-5. After that, I can stop looking at this for a while and let it sit.
US stock markets allows short, so if nothing to pump then it only makes sense to short. But bear raids usually cause quite a movement, this just seems like people bailing out and the stock losing investor interest day by day. It's a terrible thing to have your money tie up when there are so much opportunities out there.
There are different brands out there. Caroza by Zydus, Corvela by Cipla, Ranx by Unichem Laboratories. Rolazin Macleods Pharma. They are not generics no.
That's always the tough part raising money if no one is willing to invest, they would be forced to take on bad deals that usually ends up toxic.
If you go to a bank, they likely need something to secure their investment to make sure they don't risk their money. Whether it's convertible notes that they can always convert below market and sell for profit or something of value to hold against the loan.
In the case of convertible notes, it's the worst thing that could happen to any stock common shares because the notes holder would have no regard for current share price since their terms allow them to always get shares below market. That usually crash the stock hard in short order.
Yeah, if you're looking to go long, maybe start with a small one, in case things do go south some more. We have to see how bad they dilute this and close the deal. I would also feel better if I can have the next earnings report available to get a feel how things are going.
I haven't seen any institutions buying in yet. So do be careful. Unless they start piling in, then, I'll just follow the money.
I don't disagree. They filed these applications years and years ago. It almost sounds like Odidi didn't know about current market conditions. He was just doing his own thing.
Take the more recently filed Ranolazine, or Ranexa for example. Currently, there are only about 6 manufacturers, and those are pretty expensive pills too. So current market looks favorable to get this through approval and will likely get a partnership right away.
But, how quickly can IPCI get approval is another story. If we wait another 4 years, the market conditions will change and there could be dozens of manufactures by then, and competitions may drop the price by a lot.
Our hope is that FDA have changed and they can provide faster approval assuming IPCI don't mess something up and meets all requirement.
One thing I learn about government agencies and not just FDA. They have strict rules to follow and if you submit everything perfectly, you're likely to move through the process before everyone else.
If you mess up and miss things, or not have sufficient required data or even a form not well filled out, they put you back in the piles and you would be lucky they find time to dig it up again and approve it some times in the future. It's critical IPCI try to do it right the first time because they will look at the new applications, and you get that first impression right it will help a great deal.
I thought we're talking about why IPCI couldn't get a partner for Glucophage and how difficult it is to market a new product as well as all the competitions out there?
Warehouse managers are well aware of stock rotations and demand. They stock enough quantity to satisfy the demand, and not keeping too big an inventory. That's something else the retail sellers have to worry about. What does this have anything to do with IPCI getting a partner?
When they run low on inventory, they will of course think about where they get more supply. So what are you saying?
When they buy, they are going to look at price of course, and it's no brainer you won't want to buy supplies that has shorter expiration date if you can't rotate out your inventory fast enough.
Frankly with that many manufacturers, they have a lot of choices where to buy and how quickly and reliably they can get the supply they asked for. Doesn't take much to see there are a lot of manufacturers already and drugs aren't something you can manufacture and stock pile big supply only to expire and become worthless.
That's making it tough for IPCI to get a partner simply because there are too much competition and whole lot of supply out in the market.