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Nope, drug predictably failed miserably, and Vivek the swindler changed the name and ticker to SIOX. Sounds a little like the Sava ceo, to be honest, or Neurotrope, which was the hype darling along with Axovant 5 or so years ago.
I see your point but there were 18 million shares traded on February 3rd and it finished (at 4pm) up almost 40% from February 2nd. I would obviously love a repeat but the circumstances today were a bit different.
Search Nasdaq short interest publication schedule.
The next 2 are July 12 and 26
I think it is retail, someone with $3.1 million to spend. Wish they'd done this when the stock was $3-$4 and established a ridiculously strong base, and I'll bet so do they. I base this on the fact that it's not subtle at all. Institutions and shorts don't telegraph their plays, and there's no reason for MM to spoof bids / asks in a non-eventful after hours. I watch L2 every day and have never seen anything like this during market hours, much less after the market is closed.
HG Wainwright, whom brokered the direct offering (and was handsomely compensated), will give a revised SP target soon. Their last target was offered hours before the PR last Monday that for the first time showed the drug working on regular PD. Several other analysts raised theirs in response to the PR, and HGW will do it sooner rather than later.
Neurotrope under a different name. Total garbage. The “rise” of Sava and ANVS completely harken back to AXON and NTRP, yet only Anavex is still standing strong a few years later.
And that demonstrates the potentially astronomical value of a partnership. ALEC started today with the exact same market cap as AVXL and is up almost 60% (to approx a $3B MC) because of a $700 mill upfront payment. If Missling structured a similar deal with say $2.5B upfront we’d be $125+ almost instantaneously, and the risk would be completely mitigated.
Right but 168 traded today, some of which were presumably buy to open.
My main point is the PTB aren’t going to spend a lot of money to manipulate price to impact these weekly options, unless there was unusual open interest. The July 16ths, otoh, have more than 10x the amount of $25 options and may be worth manipulating. Course, the entity doing that price fixing may want it above $25.
They’re not going to move the price around on account of 500 or so option contracts expiring at $25 tomorrow.
Right on cue, you sold out within the last 24 hours and have done a 180.
Despite being focused on market caps, you can’t even get them correct. AVXL is most certainly not double Sava’s market cap. It’s less than half, but you knew that.
I find it funny that Knoll Capital sold all of their 700,000+ shares. This same fund was completely overweight in CRBP (had 25x more invested in it than AVXL), and took an 80%+ haircut last Fall. Course, all it takes is one big gamble to pay off, and Fred Knoll made a fortune in Medivation, which was 80% of his portfolio at one time (lol, but some of us aren't far off from that).
Today could be epic! Last 2 Mondays after announcements we only opened up about 8% each time and then took off once the market opened.
Last post today, haha.
2 Mondays ago, we opened up $1.20 and had a high up $6.74. Last Monday, we opened up $1.92 and had a high up $5.71. In both instances, it was a bit of a slow burn with the lionshare of the price appreciation after the market opened. I believe we'll similarly take off today once the market opens (with a much higher start to boot!), as people figure out what was actually announced. This one should have sustaining power too, whereby the SP could rocket up at any time the next several weeks / months. Rich folks are going to want shares and they're going to have to pay up to get them.
HC Wainwright did the same thing for Sava after sponsoring their February offering. 6 days later (same as here) they upgraded to $66 when the SP was around 50, and 7 days after that they increased to $97. Get ready for a revised target above $50 from HC Wainwright next week and likely much higher after today’s news. They didn't just sponsor the offering, they now have our back. Makes the 15% discount we gave to Deep Lake Capital well worth it. People always reveled in Missling not playing Wall Street's game. Eff that.
Yep, perhaps Missling should indicate that he’s now open to a mid-trial look-see and we’ll be off to the races.
Indeed. I wish Bio (club not checker, obviously) posted on other IHUB boards, so I'd have new companies to investigate. Dude is a savant.
It’s the same pattern from late February. Huge buys at end of a couple days totaling 4-5 million shares, which predictably later showed up earlier this month when institutions reported their (significantly increased) holdings.
He’s delaying until the ALZ trial is fully enrolled, at which point he hopes the SP is as low as possible and he and the board have been granted yet even more options.
The one person who controls releases of news wants as much (or likely more than) any short interest for the price to go down. Missling has control of a goldmine, but is a greedy SOB who wants the strike price for his options as low as possible when he accumulates even more milestone options for missing promises. Apparently 6 million is not enough for him, so he's willing to miss 100% of his deadlines, and lie through his teeth on repeated occasions so that the market will punish the share price. It's all part of the design. Ask yourself this: What CEO questions why his company's share price went up? Answer: one who wants it to go back down. What CEO promises a deluge of data and then goes radio silent for 5+ months? Answer: See previous question.
Missling has been rewarded far too handsomely to can him at this point (new guy will need his millions of options as well), but the board, and shareholders through their vote, need to let him know they're on to his shenanigans. Course, no doubt the board is in on the whole thing.
Why do that when Missling can miss every self-imposed deadline over a 5+ year period, make work simple for short interests, thus allowing himself and his cronies to receive milestone options with artificially low strike prices? Anyone who thinks he hasn’t had the full PDD and Rett data for months is deluding themselves. If recent revelations about adult Rett trial enrollment are true, then Missling continues to deliberately lie about that timeline since he knows full well his claims are impossible to be met. (It took a full 6 months from the last enrolled Rett patient for incomplete results in the US adult trial). In the late 3rd Q last year, Missling was saying to expect Avatar results at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021. That colossal miss of short-term timeline was clearly deliberate and a function of Missling’s intense greed while he brings a revolutionary product he didn’t invent to market as a snails pace.
Will this effect the long-term SP. Only by a little. But diluting at a lower than necessary SP and slowing progress to enrich yourself further (and at the expense of Patients) is effed up. Many years ago Missling said some day we’d fully understand why he did what he did. I’m pretty sure I figured it out a while ago.
You may want to have a look at AVXL's institutional holdings then. Only Blackrock and Vanguard have anywhere near that kind of stake in the company. So I suppose they both abandoned their ETFs so that they could sell all their AVXL shares? Or was it a coordinated effort by State Street, Geode Capital, Perceptive Advisors, Knoll and Northern Trust to find a buyer and sell their 3.8 million shares around the same time, while someone else whom has never reported holdings in AVXL sold 1.8 million for good measure (thus accounting for the 5.6 million shares that traded on 3/19 and 3/31 in 7 block trades)?
If that's the case (Cantor), AVXL should report an additional $75 million in cash during their 2Q results in early May from the 5 million shares that traded in 4-5 bulk trades @ $15 on March 19 and March 31. Alternatively, around that same time 13Fs will be rolling in so we may have a much better idea what happened. Good news is we don't have to wait as long as normal since it all happened at the end of the quarter.
My bet is some entity had another entity (broker or MMs) wrangle up a bunch of shares in dark pools, but I suppose it's not beyond the realm of possibility that it could be a transfer from one institution who no longer wanted to hold to another who did.
And 1,018,318 a minute later. Combined with the huge buys 13 days ago (which I believe were also at $14.95....significance?), something is most certainly afoot. I’ve been watching this ticker a long time (like many on this board) and never seen anything remotely like this.
Another 2 big trades (3% of outstanding shares) at 4pm and a minute after!
The overwhelming likelihood is that it’ll go back to 14.03 at some point but that did not create a gap this morning, since the high of yesterday was 14.42, and the low of today was 20+ cents below that.
You very well may be correct, but continuing to miss / push back every single timeline (despite his previous history of piss-poor timeliness) without changing his behavior, and his expression of shock that the SP took off in February....neither of those sit particularly well with me. I believe in the drug, and am certainly not going to sell. Hell, I wouldn’t even advocate replacing the CEO (as many disrupters love to do) since we’re tied to him at this point, and appointing a new CEO wouldn’t change that....but, Missling would be well to remember he’s not above the company, and that he is a lucky mofo that Skarpelos hand picked him.
My main issue is that he may be withholding positive data in order to suppress the SP until he has earned milestone options (Alz full enrollment, eg). If he’s doing that, he’s a total POS. He didn’t invent the drug, and he has plenty of well below mkt options already. The one thing SAVA has over AVXL is their financial incentives are SP based so no phony baloney with withholding good news.
Yep, same MO every time. If it runs at the beginning of the week, "blue skys ahead. I won't even look at my portfolio, because it's up up up."
Is it possible Missling is waiting until he gets incentive-based options for full ALZ enrollment before he releases other good news, so as to keep his exercise price down. We've been waiting 5 mos for full PDD data, 3 mos for full Rett Data (after already significantly delayed, half-assed readouts), and just last Fall he was talking about AVATAR reading out at the end of 2020, beginning of 2021...and here we are at the end of the 1Q 2021 and we've never gotten a full enrollment PR, much less a trial complete. Obviously it's shady as heck, but is waiting to PR good news, primarily for Missling's own benefit (as if he doesn't have enough options already), allowable? Also, are incentive-based options published anywhere? It would be nice to know how much he, and other insiders, are getting for particular milestones.
I suppose the one redeeming thing if he is acting in this shady manner it is because he believes he has great news that will push the SP up. But with the market looking like it's about to have a serious correction, this is a particularly dangerous game for the company (ability to raise money at most advantageous SP) and its shareholders. The other thing is Missling has never had a good grasp of what pushes the SP up and down. Whether it's spoonfeeding short interests by telegraphing data releases to conferences, expressing surprise when good PRs result in the SP tanking (through pathetic follow-up clarifying PRs) or his comment about hitting the ATM because the SP unexpectedly went up. Seriously, WTF kind of comment was that, Chris? He should obviously say nothing or say "yeah, it looks like all our past good news is finally getting noticed. Good on Anavex!"
The more I think about it, the more I think the 3 million+ trade at the end of Friday was extremely significant and a sign that something is about to happen, either in required filings or to the SP. We've had other triple witching days, but never did anything like this happen. There was a 250,000 buy in September and nothing really happened in December, but here we had 4.3% of the float trade in one fell swoop. That's not options expiration (fewer than 3000 options contracts expired in the money last Friday) nor is it simple rebalancing. Contrast this to triple witching day last March, when volume overall was double typical, but there were no huge block buys besides a modest intra-day one of 100,000 shares.
There was a 700,000+ share trade in the relatively recent past (and Perceptive Advisors did report new holdings of 700,000+ shares in February), but I couldn't find out exactly when that occurred. I think it might have been during regular trading hours.
On the last quadruple witching day, in December 2020, approximately 750,000 shares were traded at the bell. Then, magically when new institutional holdings were reported in mid-February, Perspective Advisors had approximately 750,000 shares. Today, 3 million shares were traded at the bell and after hours. Hmmmm, perhaps in mid-May we'll have new information that someone took 4.99% interest in AVXL, and used the cover of a quadruple witching day to do so.
The huge volume cannot be explained by options expiration as fewer than 300,000 shares (3000 contracts) expired in the money today, far fewer than in January, for example.
I assume this is unethical/illegal, but is it possible Missling is withholding (v. good) supplementary Rett/PDD data until after the AD trial is completely enrolled, thus keeping SP down to the benefit of whatever milestone options he receives?
There are so many potential catalysts in the near-term, the market is ripe for any of them, and he goes radio silent for the longest time I can ever remember since I've owned the stock (Summer 2015). And no, investor conferences do not count. And no reasonable person would think he hasn't had time to compile complete PDD / Rett data.
I do wish his milestone options were more SP related so there would be no incentive for any personal gain manipulation, even if I'm mostly just being paranoid. But fact is, even if the SP does reach stratospheric levels in the long-run, most longs would still rather be diluting at $50 than $12.5, whereas Missling may have other incentives, when he can pick up another 500,000 options here and there.
There is no gap from 7. Feb 1 high 6.57 Feb 2 low 6.54. Feb 2 high 8 Feb 3 low 7.97.
Last post of the day.
Yes because the gap was from the Feb 3 high of 10.98 to the low of 13.80 on Feb 4.
Filled the 10.98 gap and immediately bounced hard. Not sure what the point is but it’s done, with some massive help from the broader market.
Just a more magnified version of the Nasdaq composite which did the same thing. It's a shame we didn't ride the index up the whole way, as our revaluation from November and December's news happened in one fell swoop a month ago. Missling, per usual wasted an opportunity to set a new baseline bottom for the stock, well above where it is now. He has the timing of a loud fart at Thanksgiving dinner. And like it was last year when he released great trial news (primarily because he held so much back, cynically one might reckon to keep his soon-to-be-granted option strike price down), future data will be severely minimized if it's released while Nasdaq is in a freefall. This looks to be a transcendent company, but the CEO has done shareholders no favors, that is for certain. Longs frequently wonder why AVXL has never been valued where we think it should be, and come up with all sorts of conspiracy theories to justify it...when in reality, the answer is staring you right in the face.
Nasdaq has started to recover nicely on the day, one might expect AVXL to do likewise.
The only thing I can think of as to why he might not have PRed the trial enrollment completion (despite doing so for US Rett and PDD, and presumably ALZ) is because it probably occurred in late November and would've been greeted by groans from those waiting for US-Rett results. Still, he should've mentioned it in the several times he's talked since then (thanks for nothing, crappy analysts covering AVXL), but has chosen not to. I say late November because that's when clintrials updated with the new estimated study completion date of February 28, which fits timeline-wise with having just finished enrollment.
FWIW, we got US Rett results 6 months after the enrollment complete PR (so late May with my hypothetical timeline), and 3 months, 1 week after the LPLV PR.
Tom, it's not pumping. It's releasing information he has. They also said they were done hitting the ATM in December, which proved to be untrue...wisely, but the fact remains the same.
Yeah, so give us a meaningful PR, Dr. Missling. It's been 7+ weeks since the MJF grant PR. The pump has never been more primed for a sustained SP increase and he sits and releases nothing besides conferences where he can play grab ass with his peers and release nothing of note. There's no reason he couldn't PR the last patient, last visit for AVATAR, which will start the countdown. Hell he didn't even announce full enrollment for AVATAR, which is a departure from recent trials. Despite his continuous claims that we'll get data in the 1H of the year, I don't think the market trusts that he has fully enrolled the trial, much less every patient reached completion.
Yeah, I have been, and will continue to be in it for the long-term, but if we're going to use the ATM, at least do everything you can to raise the SP in this ridiculous fertile environment. When the market downturn comes, and it's only a matter of time, things won't be nearly as well set up for him.
Sounds promising for the PD data when they finally release it. Proper venue or not, just wish Missling would give the stock some lighter fluid. It's been 3.5 months since PDD data was first released, albeit in an extremely vague manner.