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Anybody know a brokerage that regularly has UGAZ and DGAZ available to borrow?
Anybody know of a brokerage that reliably has shares of DGAZ to lend? When Natty goes to 3.60 I'd love to short this rascal.
Don’t be a bag holder. Dgaz has been losing value every day way over its beta decay rate. The decline seems to occur during market trading hours and not during pm and am. Ugaz hasn’t been affected. So if you bought yesterday at NG=4.50 you would have to sell today at approx NG=4.40 to break even. Be careful out there.
The only to play this presently is to sell dgaz short. It doesn’t seem to matter what the entry point, this etn is in a daily spiral.
A friend of mine sits on a couple of boards in nyc. No building contractors will do work for trump b/c they’ve already gotten the short end of “the art of the deal”. Now the saudis are on the receiving end. They aren’t happy about the waivers on Iranian oil which were granted to most everybody. Interested to see how this plays out. Look for curtailment of heavy crude from KSA to US without any announcement of production slowdown. US refiners need heavy crude to produce distillate and higher value petroleum products. Most us refineries are technologically advanced and are not exclusively made for low API gravity WTI. It might increase the spread between Brent and WTI. I don’t really know. I don’t know what affect it’ll have on wti price. You can be sure the saudis won’t be fooled again anytime soon.
I broke even in that last Credit Swisse fiasco. I should have made bank based on the value of NG at my entry point. My entry point was NG 4.66. It dropped to 3.95 (where I sold dgaz) and I did slightly better than break even. Lots of traders are still under water and will I nevitably take a bath.
Oilprice said China,Japan, and so Korea were all close to full on NG storage. LNG spot market is currently historically week. That said, most if not all lng loads leaving US are prebooked. LNG terminal development doesn’t even make it off the drawing board without a long term commitment by a customer. What the customer does with that fuel is their problem. I don’t look for lng slowdown to affect the NA market. Henry hub is currently all about weather and speculation.
Do as i say not as i do. Lol. I couldn’t help myself. Had to pick up a few 2.30s
Ng 4.96. Patience
Picked up some relatively cheap uwt on the dip Friday. Crude looks to have found a bottom or at least a trading zone.
I totally agree. NG 4.96 is my target as well. Pay-tience.
Direxion has had big time trouble the past 3 days getting dgaz to behave as advertised. Major devaluation in relation to NG.
Didn’t Trump pick Powell? I was kinda surprised when he did over less rate hawkish candidates.
I doubt it. Weather is not cooperating (wrinkles loves when I talk weather) and injection showed there is still a lot of gas being produced every week
Back to yesterday's DGAZ shenanigans. I was in big, 18000 shares. I was also sure about my thesis of weather and supply. My studies of NG spikes indicated a pullback of 15 to 30%. I was ready to make it rain!
3x geared etfs use a bunch of fancy financial instruments to give the fund the leverage it needs and the movement it needs to follow NG. two things could have happened:
1. the financial instruments could not keep up with the price movement of NG and finally caught up end of day. Which sucked for those of us averaging in before 11am at what we thought were low levels.
2.the fund was tracking correctly and financial instruments bought after 11 am overcorrected for NG price action.
I think it was no. 1. I don't think there was malfeasance on direxion's part but it was incompetence.
I did get my money out of this t*rd, selling all my 4.61s at 4.65. I really learned a lesson about trading 3x during a period of extreme volatility. Wish I had kept 25% back for buying after the gut punch.
I thought I had an opportunity to make a huge swing trade based on my research into NG price spikes. D at 4.61 and Jan contract at 4.66. After a 47% run up. No brainer! Currently my position is 15 pennies red even though NG dropped 70 cents. There’s no money in getting angry, but that’s a hell of a premium to pay for an education into how 3x etns behave during extreme volatility.
Any of you guys notice something fishy in the way dgaz tracked NG yesterday?Price did not seem to accurately reflect the price movement of the underlying commodity on weds 11/14.
I wasn’t worried yesterday b/c historical price action has always had a reverse of some sort. My break even was certainly low enough to catch a good portion of the reverse. UNTIL DIREXION MOVED THE GOALPOSTS. I’m not happy.
At 12:25 pm NGF19 was 4.899 and dgaz was 4.13.
At 3:00 pm NGF19 was also 4.899 but dgaz had dropped to 2.93.
The price of the underlying commodity stayed the same but the etn dropped in price by 29%. That is way more than beta decay.
My break even is dgaz 4.61 At 11:15 dgaz was 4.61 and NGF19 was 4.66
At 9:30 today,11/15, dgaz price is 3.80 and NGF19 is 4.46
My position should be in the black if NG is below 4.66ish yet it is over a dollar below my break even. I calculate January contract will have to fall below 4.10 for my position to get back to break even. There may not be criminal intent but there is certainly gross inefficiency and incompetence in their management of the backing securities
I wrote to direxion last night and have yet to hear back.
I’m pissed!
Price action before eod is gonna be fun to watch.
WOW. I have never had a position go from even to 33% in the red over the course of 4 hours. Believe it or not im not worried.
My goal is steak at 5.25 or above. Action today is 100% manipulation and speculation. Once the bean counters look at it and figure out hdds, cufd production, pipeline flows, lng takeaway, mexico exports, canadian imports, blah blah bla. They will figure an appropriate price. I look for ng to settle in about 4.10. That puts dgaz over 6.50. It could happen.
If you are wondering if the price right now 3.65 is a good place to add i say an opportunity like this only comes every 1-2 years.
That’s it. All in 4.61. This time next week I’ll be eating beans or I’ll be eating steak.
Sold uwt at a loss to free up more cash for another spike dgaz dip.
Avg now 4.91 $10000 left in reserve
Avg now 5.10
Added a bit. 30% in. avg 5.67 crazy!
Ouch! Those knives hurt. I am in just a tiny bit. Exhaustion today? Tomorrow? Friday? After exhaustion NG falls back but settles much higher than pre spike. 3.90 - 4.10?
Dgaz just pierced $5 level. Many trading houses have rules prohibiting the buying of instrument priced below $5.
does the NG chart reflect a new reality where natural gas prices remain above $4.00 for the balance of the winter? Possibly. After perusing historical ung data, price action like this ends in an exhaustive candle with price falling back steeply. However price doesn’t always drop back to the pre spike level. Sometimes it is an overdone step up before settling at a higher base level.
Where will it settle after the price action settles down? Possibly 3.90 - 4.10 How high will it go before exhaustion? Historical UNG price action indicates a run up of 30-35% before exhaustion. If that holds true then the top is still a day or two away.
Oops... I mean when NG goes down dgaz won’t go up proportionally. Doh...
Dgaz all in Jan contract. Keep in mind if NG goes down, dgaz won’t go down proportionally as the 2nd month contract (Jan) will show less volatility.
If you have a better handle n winter weather there’s this Arctic oscillation and polar vortex analysis
The confounding thing about NG is that it is hard to model with ta during weather events. During withdrawal season it’s all about the weather. That’s my opinion based on the years I’ve been following NG. As I mentioned before everybody is freaking about the 2nd shot of arctic air that is gonna hit after thanksgiving weekend. Bulls really want $4 and they wanna squeeze shorts into capitulation. $4 is a good time to go short. After the 2nd shot things look kinda muddled, however atmospheric setup could mean Cold winter. It looks like it’s gonna be El Niño, but not all El Niño’s are the same. The one during 1977-1978 was weak like the one predicted this year but it was also very cold. I’ll short when it looks really bleak for bears and keep one eye on this guy Judah cohen
Painful week. Ugh.
I was bearish on NG this winter bc I didn’t see a lot of cold weather in the seasonal forecasts. I go deep into it - a bit of a weather nerd. After seeing the latest from a really smart guy at MIT named Judah Cohen, my mind is changed. There will likely be multiple shots of cold air coming down from the arctic, maybe some sustained arctic weather too. Natty could run wild. It’s a bulls dream come true. It’s gonna be hard to pick off any lows in dgaz. I rarely go long NG, but I just might.
Next week I will keep an eye on metals. I thing it’s trading range time, and there will be opportunities at the high and low end of the range. I’ll buy miners when gold drops and sell when it pops.
Oil. Dear god, it cannot go down forever.
Judah cohens latest winter indicator was posted 2 hrs ago. It changed my mind. This winter could be a stinker. I will be on the sidelines for a while.
Agreed! I was thinking the exact same thing. I’m gonna organize the garage then take the wife to lunch. I can get a little desperate on fridays. Computer off.
Weather is 90% of driver thru January. This winter doesn’t look particularly bad. It could go back to ho hum after early dec. Problem with dgaz is that ng Jan/Feb backwardation is 15 cents and will mute any gains if dgaz is held thru the contract roll starting dec 10. That puts a limit on the time frame to bet on dgaz.
Sold the whole mess of dgaz at 10.10. I took a beating. I will keep an eye on the weather an revisit dgaz if I see an opportunity.
Weather is 90% of driver thru January. This winter doesn’t look particularly bad. It could go back to ho hum after early dec. Problem with dgaz is that Jan/Feb backwardation is 15 cents and will mute any gains if dgaz is held thru the contract roll starting dec 10. That puts a limit on the time frame to bet on dgaz.
Sold all at 10.10 premarket. I will keep an eye on weather models to look for reentry