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Anytime, there are a handful of downers appearing on this board now, but its still the only one i look at for now.
GMP Securities -The reason for the block selling Friday (and most likely the weeks leading up); one of the Underwriters for the financing deal.
Check the sells EOD Friday.
http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=CGC
Basically GMP was still selling the remainder of the shares they received in the deal.
Hopefully its over now. On the bright side, the share price had some good support despite 5million shares being dumped the last little while. Says a lot about the stock and company.
You can predict that we'll be back on track as soon as that shorting is over.
I think it ended Friday for the most part.
UNGASS is next week Tues-Thurs. You'll probably be pretty happy a week from today.
Hmmmm.. Who is XIB consulting anyway.
With XIB being so far under the radar. What are the chances of both CGC and OGI needing them at the same time?
Furthermore.. what are the chances that they BOTH pay XIB in shares equivalent to exactly 100k?
It could be a random chance..
But it's not. lol
I believe the short term SP is going to build up starting this week.
The share price went down because of a series of events:
It had initially been pressured down since just after the Allard decision when it became advantageous to short the stock. The short volume increased 41% form Feb 15-29. But that only started the whole thing.
Then there was some positive news for some of the other players in the LP market, couple that with the financing deal CGC made at $2.30 on March 22. Take this into account from March 15-31, the Short volume grew from 365,000 to 1,370,000! Ever since March 22, shares have been dumped slowly, then in blocks; the block chunks took the share price a few cents (down) to be absorbed...every day. It adds up over the span of 2.5 weeks!
Heres a theory on who is doing the block selling if you're curious....
The block selling is presumably the Underwriters - institutional investors playing the short game. They hold their long position in CGC, but can profit in the meantime by shorting the stock in this "No news" period - now that they were dealt shares at $2.30 which gives them a guarantee to short at a price above that (plus premium) and be able to cover at $2.30. Almost no risk for them, so why wouldn't they?
As we approach a number of larger events happening around April 20th, and obviously the closing date of the financing deal, it leaves you to assume that holding a short position would come with a lot more risk than it would have lets say, last week.
As of March 31st, the short position was 1,370,000. Combine that with the amount of shares dropped in block trading this week, and the private cross-trade buy of 600k shares on Friday, and you can possibly draw a conclusion..or a guess that the short positions are drying up fast.
My prediction is that we see a trend change; CGC is going on a nice climb this coming week.
I don't know if we'll see it exactly on Monday or if it will be Friday (when the deal closes)..
But it seems to me like it will turn this week.
Only my honest opinion of how I think the puzzle pieces fit.
Same.. I have no idea where those extra 500k shares came from.
I was watching this sitting at 520k nearing EOD..then the 100k block buy came in and it jumped to 1.1m volume...
Well CGC is about to acquire someone that's for sure.
Time will tell just who that is!
The PPS isn't moving much because of the block selling for the past few weeks.
The buying pressure is good and builds it back up, but the block sell's drop the price by a few cents here and there - it adds up.
As soon as it stops, we'll see the PPS steadily climb up to where it's natural value is.
Anyhow it's good for anyone looking to pick up those cheap shares being dumped.
I don't think a solid bottom will be set this week yet. 2.6 may hold today, but there is significant pressure to degrade the value of this stock - temporarily.
But, if you feel like it is, I would purchase only a portion (whichever percent you decide) of total shares that you would otherwise. Especially when the stock is rolling down because you are essentially trying to guess at a bottom.
If you buy a bit of shares now, a bit next week and a bit the week after, you might find that you actually hit the bottom one of the times and your average price was better than just buying all at once at a price you guessed at.
That's just what I do and it seems to work because I'm no expert at predicting bottoms and peaks.
Either way, 2.6 is a great price for CGC, you'll make money if you bought here and hold until our financial report in a few months. Just my opinion.
The amount of short positions rose dramatically with the last run up. Just like what you and I had predicted about 2 weeks ago, this and the charts indicate it trickling down to lower lows before it pops back up with news (or new investors at a great price).
I am a CGC long and love this company and the potential of the industry. I invested at a great price a while ago and know what this stock is worth. That being said, I will be accumulating more shares soon when it hits the right price, pretty sure we can expect some new lower lowes here as we're in that limbo time between news and financial statements as well as the short volume being where it is.
BUT once it touches the bottom it's no doubt going to go back up to what this baby is worth. Every day is a day closer to a legalization structure being decided, and you can imagine the share price then...
I'd say accumulate the next few weeks as the price continues to dip.
Just my honest opinion, I'm not trying to influence anyone but want to be realistic about what I think is happening.
If you're a long like me, hold strong, these dips down sometimes seem scary but this company is in an amazing position and down trends like these are perfect times to accumulate.
CGC Short Volume increased by 41% since Feb 15th 2016.
Im a CGC LONG and strong. Looking at the numbers, they are still relatively low.
I don't care about the small rises and dips because I believe in the company itself and I bought in at a great price which I know the company is worth.
In my honest opinion I would say accumulate at the lows, the short pressure will probably dip this stock a bit within the coming month. Then hold strong and watch what happens in 6 months time!!!
http://apps.tmx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpController?SaveView=true&GetPage=SecuritySummary
*If the above link doesn't bring you to the numbers then search CGC in the searchable on that site*
Whats the latest update on Tweed v Peace Naturals?
Legal marijuana sales hit 5.4billion in 2015.
For anyone who hasn't seen it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/05/business/legal-marijuana-sales-2015-report.html
Great point.
Time will tell now.
CGC Short Position numbers:
Just under 300k shares.. low short volume. Especially with respects to the recent market hits.
apps.tmx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpController?SaveView=true&GetPage=SecuritySummary
I think the lack of short volume is due to the new standard share price we'll see within the first week of feb - when we get our oils license.
Not to mention the other buzz..
Rona Amberose's recent stance on marijuana legalization.
The boost needed in Canadian Economy (which puts a fire under Mr. Trudeau to speed up the REC process)
Peace Naturals Acquisition Possibility..
Increasing Patient Count...
Globe and Mail article swaying Bill Blair to promote LPs.
"Ex-colleague will lobby MP Bill Blair to restrict field of pot growers"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-colleague-will-lobby-mp-bill-blair-to-restrict-field-of-pot-growers/article28102506/
I think you're spot on with this.
Possibly because other LP's don't have the patient base that CGC has (25%).
Thus these other LP's are producing more than they can move and just stockpiling it, as Bruce touched on in the November conference call, so they want to make at least some profits to show.
Bruce also mentioned that old stock is being turned into Oils; we should look to see most of our banked reserves in oils rather than bud by the next quarter.
So, it would be advantageous to purchase bud at such a low price for one LP who is converting that stock to oils - given they have the cash to buy and store the oils and want to build up their bank for Rec, or they have the means to move it when regulations call for it.
Just my opinion.
For anyone who hasn't yet seen the new Oils packaging..
La Presse came for a tour last week and got a sneak peak at our oil packaging. (Français) https://t.co/CJa4jjQkez pic.twitter.com/C3CSbcDbLH
— Tweed (@TweedInc) December 14, 2015
Not sure why my post got deleted...
But if you listen to Bruce's speech when they released financials. He told us the date.
The Greenhouse is getting inspected for approval tomorrow.
Just a reminder.
When the last big run happened it rose sharp, then fell for a day or two, then up, then a slight fall etc...
But the price rises were always bigger than the dips or support days.
I don't understand it but that was the trend before.
If someone knows an explanation for this?
HERE ARE THE CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS
For anyone who missed this post - I think it will be helpful.
Some of Bruce's Key Points in the Conference Call.
I chalked up some notes incase you didn't get a chance to listen or write notes yourself. Obviously I didn't get everything he said, but here is what stood out to me. If you get the chance to listen. Please do so - you'll definitely gain confidence in CGC. If you don't get the chance, know that it was an extremely POSITIVE vibe!
You can listen here:
Replay Toll Free Dial-in Number: 1-855-859-2056
Replay Password: 82631795
Replay Dates: 26/11/2015 11:15 ET - 10/12/2015 23:59 ET
First things first...
Bruce is pumped about the news yesterday that medical marijuana is now legal in public in Ontario.
OILS
The government will probably not issue a single oil license for example only to CGC, but will issue them in batches. The first batch may come within the week or even up until the first week of December says Bruce. He expects to be in that first batch.
They run two 8-10 chamber oil manufacturing machines. They've been cranking these for the last week and a half, at 2x the number of normal shifts (2 8hour shifts) and will expect to continue to do this until the end of the year at least. This is to prepare for the approval to sell oils. Right now they obviously don't have enough to sustain the amount of predicted volume for sales if oils were approved today, so they are working overtime to get some overexcess stock.
They are converting the old stuff to oils. Basically 8-10grams = 1 gram of oil. Come next quarter they will show their inventory of oils vs bud for more clarity. Expect more oil than bud...
Also they're looking at working with some companies to create their own unique oil extracting machine that will be exclusive to CGC - it will be a 50-100litre machine.
They also plan to introduce products to go with selling just plain oils. Such as brownies/Drinks/cookies etc. This will hopefully add to the brand and distinguish them.
Bruce said with the Liberals in power, having too much stock is a good problem to have.
Forward Looking
Health Canada is inspecting their greenhouse around the 2nd week of December (might be the 10th), once approved the new grow season will be in the beginning of January where they expect to be able to produce huge amounts.
Government will likely announce some cornerstones soon. They need to let the public know they're making progress on their promises. It could be the possible distribution plan that everyone seems to be waiting on.
They are looking internationally
Health Canada seems confident in the courier approach at this moment.
Right now CGC has a strong interest in driving their patient count because they are the best at it. That is where most of their focus will go.
They don't think any more licenses will be given out to grow - as they are being a growth of stock vs sales and there would be no need. This is good for CGC
A huge advantage they have is they they can guarantee stock on whatever strain they offer.
Patient Count
Monthly increases in patient counts are tricky, summers are slower because more doctors tend to not be in office. But the winter months we are seeing large increases.
He's looking at 10-12k patients by next quarter. We are at 7200 now.
Bruce is stoked about their new customer acquisition and satisfaction. The process is massively improved.
The research study will give people the chance to try medical marijuana via a study - a safe environment for those who are timid.
They are currently experiencing the staircase effect. Just growth after growth...CGC is on a roll and there is a huge amount of growth every day. Bruce overall seemed very enthusiastic about the future of this company and even in day to day operations.
Yes they just acknowledged it was a settlement.
Some of Bruce's Key Points in the Conference Call.
I chalked up some notes incase you didn't get a chance to listen or write notes yourself. Obviously I didn't get everything he said, but here is what stood out to me. If you get the chance to listen. Please do so - you'll definitely gain confidence in CGC. If you don't get the chance, know that it was an extremely POSITIVE vibe!
You can listen here:
Replay Toll Free Dial-in Number: 1-855-859-2056
Replay Password: 82631795
Replay Dates: 26/11/2015 11:15 ET - 10/12/2015 23:59 ET
First things first...
Bruce is pumped about the news yesterday that medical marijuana is now legal in public in Ontario.
OILS
The government will probably not issue a single oil license for example only to CGC, but will issue them in batches. The first batch may come within the week or even up until the first week of December says Bruce. He expects to be in that first batch.
They run two 8-10 chamber oil manufacturing machines. They've been cranking these for the last week and a half, at 2x the number of normal shifts (2 8hour shifts) and will expect to continue to do this until the end of the year at least. This is to prepare for the approval to sell oils. Right now they obviously don't have enough to sustain the amount of predicted volume for sales if oils were approved today, so they are working overtime to get some overexcess stock.
They are converting the old stuff to oils. Basically 8-10grams = 1 gram of oil. Come next quarter they will show their inventory of oils vs bud for more clarity. Expect more oil than bud...
Also they're looking at working with some companies to create their own unique oil extracting machine that will be exclusive to CGC - it will be a 50-100litre machine.
They also plan to introduce products to go with selling just plain oils. Such as brownies/Drinks/cookies etc. This will hopefully add to the brand and distinguish them.
Bruce said with the Liberals in power, having too much stock is a good problem to have.
Forward Looking
Health Canada is inspecting their greenhouse around the 2nd week of December (might be the 10th), once approved the new grow season will be in the beginning of January where they expect to be able to produce huge amounts.
Government will likely announce some cornerstones soon. They need to let the public know they're making progress on their promises. It could be the possible distribution plan that everyone seems to be waiting on.
They are looking internationally
Health Canada seems confident in the courier approach at this moment.
Right now CGC has a strong interest in driving their patient count because they are the best at it. That is where most of their focus will go.
They don't think any more licenses will be given out to grow - as they are being a growth of stock vs sales and there would be no need. This is good for CGC
A huge advantage they have is they they can guarantee stock on whatever strain they offer.
Patient Count
Monthly increases in patient counts are tricky, summers are slower because more doctors tend to not be in office. But the winter months we are seeing large increases.
He's looking at 10-12k patients by next quarter. We are at 7200 now.
Bruce is stoked about their new customer acquisition and satisfaction. The process is massively improved.
The research study will give people the chance to try medical marijuana via a study - a safe environment for those who are timid.
They are currently experiencing the staircase effect. Just growth after growth...CGC is on a roll and there is a huge amount of growth every day. Bruce overall seemed very enthusiastic about the future of this company and even in day to day operations.
Union head calls for marijuana sales through LCBO
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/marijuana-liquor-ontario-1.3329529
OILS COMING - The Partnership with Nutritional High back at the end of October says all you need to know if you look into that company.
UP UP AND AWAY!
6,098,000 shares will be issued tomorrow at $2.05.
The company will make a public announcement tomorrow that the financing deal is complete.
Check out the public records for March 2015.
The Final Short Form Prospectus issued March 10 '15 saying that the deal will close March 17th.
On March 17th the shares were issued.
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00029461/tag]
The stock price had lowered below the deal price in the days leading up to the March 17th deal, so obviously there wasn't a huge offload that day. The investors would wait until price rose above the agreed amount ($2.15).
This time around the share price has bounced up on the days leading up to the Nov. 17th Closing Date of the financing deal. You can use your judgement to piece together what you think will happen.
Just stating the facts here. In my opinion this is POSITIVE for the company long term!
Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
A big rise today needed so the sell-off tomorrow doesn't drop too low.
Then a bit of good news that's expected and we're off to the races.
Why 18M shares? Isn't the Dundee deal for 6M shares?
Look at the Volume. This is going up. Tomorrow watch the open.
A small correction EOD is expected.
Info on the Dundee financing deal !?!?
Can someone let me know where I can find info on this and the details of it?
TIA
Deej
Anyone know where we can get info on when the Dundee financing deal goes through?