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A very nice day, today.
LAC finished UP 7.11% on higher than average volume.
LAC's JV partner, SQM, finished UP 5.63% on really higher than average volume.
I could get used to this.
GLTA, gooooo longgggg LACCCCC, regards, G8tr
Roger that, Jet!
And the front page of today's WSJ has a nice article about the change in California law, requiring all new construction up to 3 stories to have solar pre-installed, along with the Li storage batteries that go with it. This is a huge new market for Li and you can bet other states will soon follow. Imagine the boost in demand if even just a few of the more populous states join the movement. I seriously doubt that Morgan Stanley took that into consideration in its recent, and poorly conceived, report about a lithium production oversupply problem in a few years time.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Good luck to you, Nowhat.
I hope you kill it.
But remember, you only lose when you sell and I stand by my HO that folks should jump on the LAC train before PPS goes up, as it surely will.
GLTA and LAC longgggg!!! G8tr
Or maybe even sooner than 20, Jet!
Either way, LAC is a gem, indeed!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Only advice I ever give is ...
buy low and sell high.
Seems reasonable. And remember, you can't lose "a bundle," unless you sell at the wrong time.
GLTA and beware of phony charts based on phalse phacts. G8tr
Phony Phacts Again, Nowhat?
I thought we talked about how you weren't going to put out fake news anymore (do you work for CNN by chance)?
Although LAC is staging a nice rally (being UP 1.54% today and UP 4.70% in the last 5 trading days, according to Schwab), during the last 6 month trading period, LAC was NOT DOWN 50% or anywhere close to that (minus 30.07%), so how could anyone foolish enough to "ascribe to your analysis [sic]," have saved "50%" as you falsely state in your post?
And have you really been posting your "charts" (and I use that term loosely and without any insult to other chartists) here for 6 months? It seems like so much longer.
GLTA and watch out for Fake "Facts," Folks. Do your own DD and GLTA!! G8tr
Check out what California is up to now!!
New homes required to have solar panels!!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/california-solar-power-panels-homes-renewable-green-energy-climate-change-a8337626.html
And where there are solar panels, there are also lithium storage batteries. So who you gonna call for all that lithium (which is just across the border in Nevada)? LAC longggggg!!!!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Kitty litter, schmitty litter ...
I KNOW THAT LAC made me a boatload of cash!!!
And with much more to come, IMHO!!! So you can play the snide cynic to your heart's content, but I'm smiling all the way to the bank. Get smart and get onboard before the LAC money train leaves you and your charts at the station.
GLTA! G8tr
A nice week.
LAC finished Friday's trading session UP 5.82% on higher than average volume.
LAC finished the last 5 day trading session UP 1.54%.
LAC finished the last month UP 1.54%.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Wrong again, Nowhat.
Jet is not "constantly claiming" that you're "wrong all the time."
Actually, his position has been for some time that you're wrong "80%" of the time (recently, he may have revised his estimate to "90%"). And if you tighten up your analyses and pay attention to detail like that, well, I for one think you can really build on those numbers. Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Hey Dude, lighten up. I'm just teasin' a little on a lazy weekend.
GLTA! LAC longggggg!!!
Wrong again, Nowhat.
You falsely claim that, during the 10 day trading period beginning on 4/23, LAC dropped 10%. In fact, according to Schwab, LAC opened at $5.53 PPS on Monday, 4/23, and closed at $5.27 PPS on Friday, 5/4. That's a drop of 26 cents during the 10 day trading period, which is less than 5% -- NOT 10%.
Which is worse, your charting or your math?
Monkeys are pretty clever ...
I bet they can even do stock charts with better than a 20% accuracy average and that predict more than "could go up or could go down."
GLTA! LAC longgggg!!!
That's the great thing about being LAC long.
If you've done your DD, and purchased your shares at a good price, then there is NO HIGH DRAMA. Your perspective is broader as you stay aware of trends in the lithium sector (because you may want to BTFD), but you really don't care too much whether the PPS is up, down or unchanged in the short term. Instead, you're secure that you are already playing with house money (having previously bought and sold your way up the ladder to holding a satisfactory number of shares, all of which are already totally paid for by trading LAC, along with pocketing a tidy profit). Because of this experience, not charts based upon dubious factual underpinnings, you sleep very well at night knowing that, with patience and by staying the course, you have a much better than average chance of really making some serious money after LAC starts production (and maybe sooner, depending upon possible consolidation, off-take agreements, and other potential deals).
You see, Nowhat, Jet, myself, and others here have been at this for 4 - 5 years or longer and if you wanted to chart that, well, it would be an extremely vertical chart. We were lucky enough to buy plenty of shares in the 30 cent a share range, or even lower in some cases. So now, as Jet points out from time-to-time, we're very much in the green and smiling. And none of it was done with charts, but rather with solid DD, logic, but most of all, patience, which has all paid off and will continue to do so (IMHO) for those just getting in now, if they too stay the course. And best of all, it's a solid profit made from a nascent mining company, which has yet to produce a spoonful of lithium or make a profit of its own. Corporate profits are what push up PPS on a consistent basis and without them, there can be long dry spells while investors await positive news portending production and profits. Just imagine what kind of return we will get from LAC once it starts production in about 1 1/2 years and the positive quarterly reports start rolling in, consistently ever higher in gross revenue and profit!!
So, NO HIGH DRAMA needed or expected here. Thanks all the same, but I get enough of that from my wife!!
GLTA!! Stay the course and LAC longgggg!!!
Nice post VK; very educational!
I didn't know that Li batteries were so diverse. And I particularly liked the part about "lithium reserves getting scarce."
GLTA and regards, G8tr
IMHO, "spot on" Jet.
Regards and GLTA. G8tr
False facts don't cut it, Nowhat.
The only thing in your post that's accurate is your ironic and long awaited admission that "past performance is no indication of future performance." I couldn't agree more. But the entire basis for your charts is LAC's purported "past performance," from which you believe you can extrapolate to predict the future performance of a junior mining company still in the process of gearing up for lithium production (a lot of lithium production). No way. Simply too many variables and unknowns, none of which you consider. Instead, and paradoxically, you ridicule DD and facts when they are brought to your attention, along with the wisdom/teachings of extremely successful investors/businessmen like Warren Buffett and Rick Rule. Wow! How telling.
And if you want to get into LAC's past performance, at least get it right and be intellectually honest. You claim that LAC has fallen close to 60% in your post. False; not this year. According to Schwab, you're nearly 18% off, with LAC being down YTD approximately 42.46%. And if you want to chart a trend for LAC, how about charting, and accurately reporting that LAC's trend is UP, with LAC being UP approximately 3.13% over the last month, while the overall market (did you really talk about the DOW crashing in one of your posts?) crapped out.
I think you should stop passing off your charts as being based in any way, shape or form on anything reliable as far as LAC goes and I, for one, could care less about your Blackberry chart, which is way off the reservation. Stock specific board here, remember?
GLTA! LAC longggggg!!!
You misquote Rick Rule, Nowhat.
He specifically said that "for the time being" he ignores Clayton Valley for investment analysis purposes. And I don't disagree that, for now, there are two many variables involved there to meaningfully quantify. In short, it's a wild card that could pay off big soon, or later, but "for the time being," you can't say with any reasonable degree of certainty. And that's exactly what I, and Jet and others, have been saying, i.e., for now, NV is just gravy for LAC with the big play being in Argentina. For now. That can easily change in a New York minute with the PFS or other news coming out Nevada. Stay tuned. I don't think that you're deliberately disingenuous, but if you tighten up your analyses with more facts, data and actual quotes, I think you'll do better.
GLTA! LAC longggg!!!
Growing interest in electric mining vehicles!
Excerpts from article on "MacLean Engineering" in current edition of Resource World Magazine:
* Worldwide nterest in, and purchase orders for, battery operated mining vehicles is rapidly increasing;
* Advantages include doing all charging by just pulling up to an existing underground outlet and plugging in, so the equipment can literally be recharged anywhere in the mine where there is an existing outlet, providing tremendous flexibility to the mine operator. No charging walls, battery swap-out bases or other infrastructure is needed - the equipment can show up onsite and go to work underground immediately;
* Currently, life cycle charging on the batteries indicate that they get a minimum of 6,800 full charges, from empty to full, which, in some cases, translates into 10 to 12 years life out of the batteries; and
* "Battery commodities are hot right now. We are using the batteries to power the equipment that is mining the commodities needed to make more batteries. It is a beautiful full cycle situation. There is demand for ... lithium ... in order to have a cleaner work environment and reduce your ventilation energy demands, you need those commodities that go into battery technology."
GLTA. LAC longgggg!!!
Again, you proceed from a false premise, Nowhat.
As stated in "Car Wars," from the latest edition of Resource World Magazine:
"Here's a rebuttal to this rather uninformed view: electric grids are getting greener all the time as cheaper renewable sources of solar, hydro and wind power are added to the grid, as the cost of solar and wind are also continuously declining and are already cheaper than fossil fuel generation."
Other excerpts:
* EV battery costs are falling at about 15% per year and, projecting forward three or four years, EVs will achieve price parity with ICE cars;
* Once parity is achieved, everyone will buy electric cars because of their many advantages over ICE cars, including:
-- EVs are 4 to 5 times more efficient than fossil fuel cars because electric motors are 90-95% efficient whereas ICE vehicles, despite 100 years of continuous research, development and investment, are only 17-21% efficient. Most of the energy from burning gasoline is wasted as excess heat;
-- EVs are more reliable as they have only 20 to 30 moving parts as opposed to approximately 2,000 moving parts in a typical ICE vehicle. EVs don't need much regular servicing -- basically tires and wiper blades;
-- EVs have greater longevity. Though the Tesla Model S has only been around about 5 years, Tesla owners have banded together to plot their mileage against battery degradation in a collective database. Their massive spreadsheet shows that there is virtually no degradation in the batter packs. Current projections suggest that Tesla motors and batteries will last for 600,000 miles or more -- two to three times as long as ICE engines; and
-- Besides having zero emissions and lower carbon footprints, EVs kick butt. The Tesla Model S will do 0 to 60 mph in less than 3 seconds. Youtube is full of videos of the Model S beating Porsches and Ferraris. EVs are also safer, quieter, corner better and have more room for passengers and luggage. They corner better because the heavy battery pack is in the floor, lowering the center of gravity and adding to the rigidity and crashworthiness of the vehicle. The electric motor is small enough to be located on the front and rear axles freeing the front engine compartment for additional storage.
* Hence, EVs are expected to gain significant market share, up to 25% by 2025 for these reasons, plus the fact that government regulations in China, Europe and California (so far, other U.S. states are coming on board)mandate that zero emission vehicles must be used in the future. For example, China has mandated that 10% of new vehicle sales in 2019 must be zero emission vehicles. Since China is the largest car market in the world and sill growing, there has been a stampede of car manufacturers building new electric vehicles to comply with this mandate. More than 100 new electric models will hit the market in the next few years, of all shapes and sizes;
* As car companies pour billions into EV technology, battery improvements in terms of cost and capability will rapidly evolve. For example, the battery in the new electric 2018 Nissan Leaf is twice as powerful as the original model introduced in 2011, but it is the same size. This gives the car twice the range or the original but at a lower sticker price. This trend will continue;
* Because ICE manufacturers and car dealerships will find it difficult to make money on service and parts for EVs, as well as making money selling ICE vehicles, they will be forced into broader business plans, offering transportation as a service. A parallel development complementing the penetration of EVs into the transportation market in the advance of autonomous driving technology. Ultimately, in 10-15 years time, fleets of EV taxis could satisfy urban transportation needs, operating continuously, reducing urban parking demand and being recharged at taxi depots reducing the infrastructure demands to charge privately owned vehicles; and
* there will be a real challenge to commodity producers (like LAC) to supply the enormous amounts of lithium needed to meet the change in structure of the transportation industry with regard to battery powered vehicles. A bull market in all battery commodities, including lithium is before us.
GLTA! LAC longgggggg!!!!
According to Rick Rule, "[T]here's no real correlation
... in any circumstances at all between the Dow and the junior [mining] markets and the attempts to look for correlations are probably counterproductive for investors."
Rick Rule Interview, page 20 of April/May 2018 Resource World Magazine (Vol. 16/Issue 3).
Nice post VK. That's the first analysis of the U.S./China trade issues vis-à-vis effect on North American lithium producers that I've seen. Very interesting and potentially a nice tail wind to LAC IMHO. Regards, G8tr
Impatient? Hey, as my moniker suggests ...
I'm longggggg on LAC, the lithium sector, and pretty much everything else.
BTW, your last two posts are starting to stray pretty far off topic, which is, of course, LAC. Tokyo? Investment business advice? Please try to stay at least remotely connected to LAC in your, um, "commentary." Thanks.
GLTA. G8tr
LAC DID RISE as opposed to today's market
All indices got crushed today in an irrational selloff spurred by interest rates rising over 3%, which is a very different issue than that typically experienced by LAC or any other miner in the sector.
Hence, it's not surprising that LAC was UP today 0.56%.
Even if LAC had fallen today, which it did not (LAC is UP 2.08% the last 5 trading days), there is a huge difference between correlation and causation.
So, yes, I beg to differ with your hypothesis.
GLTA. G8tr
Last 5 trading days - LAC UP 2.87%
Good try (and the little magnet was a nice touch; I bet you're an emoji wizard on the IPhone).
You proceed from a false premise Nowhat.
Which is not surprising, but you need to go back and read my post.
But you did get the last part right. Congrats.
Welcome and thanks for the post Sizz.
I invested in WLC too and recall the old PFS (along with a demonstration Li extraction facility in Germany), but don't know the difference between the old one and the upcoming new one, unless it's simply an update, possibly with some new technology being used in the extraction process.
One thing's for sure, LAC is under 20 months to production in the SQM joint venture and the new PFS is out in June, so it's certainly starting to get interesting.
Regards, G8tr
It was my duty as a new Mod, Jet
... to encourage a full and frank discussion/exchange of ideas (even weird ones, as long as remotely on topic).
And besides, I picked up a cool bracelet from Toast in the process!
BTW, Toast, I made a bundle on "Tall And Fat Stores" on Thornton's personal recommendation.
GLTA and Regards to all, G8tr
Lol! If you're worried about the Dow ...
... and from a long term rising chart at that ...
then buy the lithium sector (including LAC). I'm up over $35K this week primarily due to substantial gains there.
Perhaps you're just not properly diversified Nowhat? I'd explain diversification to you too, but I think we've reached the point where the spoon feeding has to stop.
Chart on and GLTA! G8tr
Jet, I already spent enough time educating, Nowhat
But feel free to weigh in with your insights/thoughts too, by all means.
Regards, G8tr
Maybe you fail to grasp the significance, Nowhat
... of a Prefeasibility Study.
A Prefeasibility Study and a Feasibility Study are, as you might expect, inherently linked. The key point to understand is that they represent important milestones for mining and exploration companies.
Here's some DD from Resource Investing News that you might want to review before fully forming your opinion:
What is a prefeasibility study?
Prefeasibility studies are an early stage analysis of a potential mining project. They are conducted by a small team and are designed to give company stakeholders the basic information they need to green light a project or choose between potential investments. Prefeasibility studies typically give an overview of a mining project’s logistics, capital requirements, key challenges and other information deemed important to the decision-making process.
When and why do companies undertake them?
Prefeasibility studies act as one of the first explorations of a potential investment, following a preliminary resource report and the creation of an orebody model. Based on the data procured by various assessments, a prefeasibility study may occur. Companies use these studies to collect information before investing millions of dollars into tasks like acquiring permits or research equipment.
What information do they include?
In addition to information relating to geological models and mine design, prefeasibility studies also take into account factors that may impact or interfere with the final project. That can involve community issues, geographic obstacles, permit challenges and more.
A comprehensive prefeasibility study should include detailed designs and descriptions for mine operation, as well as cost estimates, project risks, safety issues and other important information. There should also be multiple options included in the study for tackling different issues, as that will provide organizations with more ways to overcome potential challenges.
Clearly, and given the comprehensive nature of a PFS, I'm sure you'd agree that it's at least plausible that a milestone positive PFS, showing promise for LAC's claystone extraction process, could lead to: 1) a significant investment in LAC by one or more third parties; and 2)a concomitant significant rise in the PPS. To me, the most apt analogy is the rise in PPS of medical stocks when a new test result shows promise for an experimental/revolutionary drug to fight cancer or some other serious disease. The PPS frequently surges on such news, even though it is preliminary in nature and the patent(s) have yet to issue.
Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong. And you may have another. If so, I'd be interested in seeing your DD/logic backing it. In any event, as Jet likes to say, "each to his own."
GLTA and regards to all, G8tr
The Oracle never saw that nuke car coming Jet.
Roger that on the Mod Handbook.
Regards, G8tr
Thanks for clearing that up for me, Jet.
So it's a play on getting rid of traffic congestion and buying lead then? But won't the new lead cars (what are left of them after all the little nuke explosions) be so heavy as to cause a heckuva lot of potholes? So maybe it's a play on asphalt suppliers then? Wow! That's what I love about this board, so many new ideas to consider. Looks like I picked a bad night to stop drinking ...
GLTA. Regards, G8tr
Your post is confusing, Nowhat.
It appears, from your charts and the narrative, that you are unabashedly taking credit (as appears to be your wont) for predicting that LAC's share price would drop (with a magnet graphic exerting downward pull, no less). But, LAC has been going UP recently, not down, including a very nice 1.98% gain today.
I know that I'll be sorry I asked, but what's the deal?
Regarding the Board's recent discussion concerning lithium demand:
South Korean steelmaker POSCO said it had agreed to buy up to 240,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate a year from Australian miner Pilbara Minerals, the latest Asian company to secure supply of this critical ingredient for electric vehicle batteries
Man, that's a heckuva off-take agreement and, IMHO, it's just the first of many to come with various Li miners -- including, perhaps, LAC and ... let's see now, who would be a logical candidate? Tesla!! Keeping fingers crossed.
GLTA G8tr
That thought has sure crossed my mind, Jet.
It's certainly plausible and, when combined with the up tic recently in the whole sector, maybe probable. If it's just aberrational and not this month, then towards the middle of May, I'd expect a substantial PPS increase based on the PFS coming in June.
Which ever way you slice it, and while there will obviously still be peaks and valleys, the upward pressure on share price should continue to build with PPS rising - like trying to force a volley ball under the water, you can hold it down there for awhile, but it always pushes back up, sometimes explosively, skyrocketing out of the pool. To me, that analogy describes the current lithium sector (and the related cobalt sector). Production hasn't really increased much yet, but all the moves are being made to see that it does (including consolidation). And so it is with production plans for EVs and electric storage batteries and on and on for a wide array of lithium battery powered products/services. It's an exciting time for sure and I plan on being around with a buncha LAC shares when it all comes to fruition. Tic, tic, tic, it'll be sooner rather than later methinks IMHO.
GLTA. Regards, G8tr
Thanks Jet; regarding other auto makers ...
the article went on to say "auto makers such as GM or Volkswagen, which established joint ventures in China years ago, might find it difficult to unwind those longstanding relationships."
So, I think the change in the Chinese trade regs is across the board and not specific to Tesla.
As the article continued, "I don't see anyone walking away from their JV partner and going alone because it's a lot of effort to unwind that," said Jeff Schuster, an analyst for LMC Automotive. "Tesla is the big winner ... as long as they have enough funding to establish themselves in China."
I'm betting Tesla does and toot suite. Your thoughts?
Regards, G8tr
Thanks Doc, and speaking of DD:
"Tesla's China Plan Is In For A Lift"
Excerpts from page B4 of today's WSJ
* China announced on Tuesday that it will ease its strict joint venture rules on foreign auto-makers;
* Tesla has long sought to manufacture its electric cars in China, which is Tesla's second biggest market after the U.S., but it has shied away from conforming with China's rules requiring a 50-50 joint venture with a local company and the sharing of any profit and technology;
* Accordingly, Tesla's cars are currently imported from California into China at a 25% tariff; and
* China now plans to phase out those restrictions for auto makers by 2022, and eliminate the rules this year for companies such as Tesla that manufacture electric vehicles. That makes it possible for Tesla to build a factory in China and not face the tariff.
My Take (and no doubt yours): Tesla just got a big shot in the arm to sell a boatload more EVs in China (even without this positive new change in China's restrictive trade regs, Tesla's revenue in China doubled to $2 billion last year from $1 billion in 2016), which will require a boatload more Lithium overall -- and who ya gonna call for that? Your favorite Nevada based Lithium miner no doubt.
Thank you POTUS!!
Go long LAC!!!!
Thanks Jet, I have a few prepared remarks here ...
First, I'd like to thank my parents who scrimped and saved so I could take Moderator classes, but seriously folks, I just flew in from Omaha (was chatting with the Oracle) and boy are my arms tired!! Can I get a rim-shot?
Okay, enough of that. But how about that LAC surge to almost a 5% gain today, on better than average volume, as part of an across the board strong showing by Lithium and Cobalt mining and related stocks. Seemed like the good old days were back (and maybe they are) as the dominant performances of LAC and others absolutely crushed the Street!! Let's do it again tomorrow!!
LAC longggggg!!!
GLTA G8tr
Thanks Jet. Will do.
Concur again, Jet.
Here's another excerpt from the recent Lithium Nevada PR I posted earlier today:
"Lithium Americas Provides Updated Resource Estimate for the Lithium Nevada Project
6:30 AM ET, 04/05/2018 - GlobeNewswire
Highlights:
Lithium Nevada Project Location
Lithium Nevada - Thacker Pass Cross-Section
Index Maps to Holes Listed in Table 2
View of Northwest Expansion Area Looking East
Increases Measured and Indicated resource by approximately 80% from the 2016 resource estimate establishing Lithium Nevada as the largest and highest-grade known claystone lithium resource in the United States"
So, let's say that hypothetically: 1) Lithium Nevada has a claystone extraction process that is cheaper and quicker than the processes currently being used by its competitors around the world; 2) Lithium Nevada is the LARGEST AND HIGHEST-GRADE CLAYSTONE LITHIUM RESOURCE IN THE UNITED STATES; and 3) Lithium Nevada is a stone's throw away from the Tesla Giga in Nevada and not much further from other customers in California. I'm no Captain of Industry/Mogul/Genius/Billionaire Visionary like Elon, but it seems to me, IMHO, that he'd be freakin' nutz not to jump all over this in the near future and secure a safe, steady, nearby supply of Li for the foreseeable future.
Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
LAC Longgggg!!!
GLTA and best regards, G8tr
P.S. I took your suggestion re the Mod thing. Thanks for the invite.