Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Area 23: The top agency in the healthcare industry behind the iTbra launch
https://www.area23hc.com/
http://adobomagazine.com/global-news/cannes-lions-announces-innovation-lions-shortlist-2017-five-out-35-entries-asia
This time we are in good hands for everything related to communication
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/area-23-makes-history-as-first-to-win-all-top-honors-at-2017-manny-awards-300447303.html
CISCO actively promoting the iTbra
Rob Royea interviewed by KCAL9 CBS Los Angeles (June 4, 2017)
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/video/3677532-developer-of-bra-that-can-detect-breast-cancer-early-discusses-documentary-detected/
Confirming sales will start in Asia followed by the US in Q1 2018.
I can't believe we have reached this point after so many years of waiting.
If Asia is a success we will be all very happy with our early investments ;)
Now is the time to accumulate for newcomers and for those who can continue to buy.
Rob Royea interviewed by KCAL9 CBS Los Angeles
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/video/3677532-developer-of-bra-that-can-detect-breast-cancer-early-discusses-documentary-detected/
Thanks @AmyJohnsonNews #KCAL9 and @SethKramer @IBFilms for great interview today about @Cisco #DetectedMovie screening #breastcancer #itbra pic.twitter.com/nk9jGnM3GJ
— Rob Royea (@RobRoyea) June 4, 2017
There are many possibilities to approach the calculation. I'll be happy to see your table. If we have different points of view we can arrive to a realistic projection that we can post in the board profile.
I like your reference to the "Revenue Multiples by Sector (US)". I agree with a multiplier of 5 instead of 10.
It is clear that my table is not 100% realistic since it provides 100% of periodic renewals, but one thing can be compensated with another. That is, if you make the sales part much fatter, it compensates for the fact that you introduce a low percentage of recurring income.
A proper projection implies the development of a full business plan and market study which is out of the scope of this board.
Sales and income projection (100K-10M units sold)
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
It would be nice to see this business plan executed.
Recurrent costs should be covered by medical insurance.
The recurring costs correspond to the monthly data analysis.
Total revenues take into account recurring revenues from subscriptions from previous years.
Perfectly achievable IMO.
Price/unit Monthly recurring fee Times sales
100 20 x10
Year Units sold Revenues units Recurring revenue/year Total revenue Market cap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 100,000 $10,000,000 $24,000,000 $34,000,000 $340,000,000
2 500,000 $50,000,000 $120,000,000 $194,000,000 $1,940,000,000
3 1,000,000 $100,000,000 $240,000,000 $484,000,000 $4,840,000,000
4 2,500,000 $250,000,000 $600,000,000 $1,234,000,000 $12,340,000,000
5 5,000,000 $500,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $2,684,000,000 $26,840,000,000
6 7,500,000 $750,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $4,734,000,000 $47,340,000,000
7 10,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $2,400,000,000 $7,384,000,000 $73,840,000,000
I agree ;) The test of fire of any company is not every year that is spent developing a product, but the first quarters of sales, which shows whether the product has commercial future or not.
I did it dividing the price of one Cyrcadia share by the price of one LLBO share = 1/0.00374 = 267.37 shares
From my point of view a market cap of a public company is far less manipulated than the price at which private companies raise money.
This is because the price of a public company is fixed by the perception that thousands of investors have about the value of the company, which over a period of time is statistically more representative. While in the valuation of a private sale there are only two parties that fix the valuation.
To be exact, for every 267 LLBO shares we should receive 1 of Cyrcadia. So, for every million shares of LLBO we should get 3,745 Cyrcadia shares. As everyone understands these numbers change with the price of each day.
The key to all this process, if one day comes to occur, is to know what is the variable that is taken to determine the final price of the deal. There are two main options and both are perfectly possible:
1. From the share price of LLBO.
2. From the last price at which Cyrcadia has sold shares to private investors.
For now, the second option would be the most favorable for us, but this could change if LLBO's price were to remain above $0.01 in the coming weeks/months. In that case, it would be more favorable for us to take the LLBO valuation as a variable to calculate the total value of Cyrcadia.
Change, as you say, this reality can be turned around if Cyrcadia managed to raise money in the coming months at $2, $3, $4 or $5 per share. That would be great for all of us, and then the valuation of Cyrcadia should be the more favorable for our interest.
I think it is better that the integration takes place as soon as possible, since Cyrcadia is going to have to raise new investments for its commercialization in the USA. With the payment of Cyrcadia Asia there is only money to make a first pilot launch. The production costs a lot of money and must be paid in advance before having the money of the sales.
A clean share structure with a single company would be in the benefit of all of us. In fact it would have been better to leave the 2016 deal die and talk about an integration deal to be executed before starting to sell in the US.
I completely agree.
Change and voo, I'm happy we agree on this important issue.
For me an integration would be excellent news from now on, since our shares would be worth more every day. Now you will no longer have to devalue the shares to raise new money. Cyrcadia will be able to raise money at a higher price every time if sales are positive. That's what all successful startups do: Uber, Airbnb, Snapchat, etc.
I hope it will happen this year, that the agreement will be fair for us, and that Cyrcadia will quote on the OTC the same day LLBO is delisted. If sales follow worldwide, we should be in the Nasdaq after three or four years.
Define it however you want. For me a company that sells its commercial rights and its patents has sold the company. But of course there may be people like you who think otherwise, and I respect you.
What I want is competent people in front of Cyrcadia. LLBO is a dead company, that the only thing that does now is to invest in another one (Cyrcadia) that has had the courage and the knowledge to carry out what Jim Holmes did not know how to do during 30 years.
This is why I believe that LLBO should be integrated into Cyrcadia, and that Cyrcadia should be the only entity to be listed on the OTC. It would be much better if we were all investors of Cyrcadia and not LLBO.
Tomorrow expires the 2016 patent transfer agreement
See page 14:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/financialReportViewer?symbol=LLBO&id=154943
We will see if Jim Holmes inform us during the month of June, or if we have to wait until mid-August when Q2 is made public. I will not give my opinion.
I agree CISCO is a big help for us. But this time, better if get to market quickly because we start to see more and more companies that want to be part of this lucrative niche market.
Isono Health: A potential competitor?
http://www.isonohealth.com/
Celesstia: A potential competitor?
http://celesstia.com/
I agree. We have a huge product, and with a bit of luck we won't go back anymore. I wouldn't be here since 2009 if I thought otherwise. But a single traded entity would make everything more simple. LLBO gives bad image to this success story. Now that the patents are certainly transferred to Cyrcadia would be the right time to do this. Just IMO of course. It's a pity that Jim Holmes is not in this board to discuss this.
Yes, of course, keep dreaming.
LLBO is a dinosaur that does not stick with a revolutionary product like the iTbra.
If it were the case, it wouldn't have traded only $42,000 in the last session.
To my knowledge there would be no counter-indication in the fact that Cyrcadia was the listed company and that the current LLBO investors were integrated into it.
Nobody cares anymore about LLBO. People and media only talks about Cyrcadia. This is the reason why they created a new company and they changed the name of the product from First Warning System to iTbra.
You can't carry on with an old trademark if you want to market a revolutionary product. Cyrcadia should be the public traded company and LLBO should integrate in the new traded entity. Our investment would be in better hands this way.
30 years of bad history and records is enough. It prevents us from prospering properly because LLBO is invisible to new investors.
If we were a single company we would have been above $0.01 a long time ago. When you talk to OTC people about LLBO, it always comes to their mind the same idea. Ah yes, it's the company that has been trying to bring a product to market for 30 years. No thanks, I want to make money. Bad, very bad for our interests.
But of course, Jim Holmes certainly does not like this idea. Personal egos can be very negative when doing business.
Or who knows, maybe this idea has already been discussed by both companies in the past. Surely Cyrcadia investors have more information about it.
For me, what would make the most sense is that LLBO would be integrated into Cyrcadia and that it would continue to trade in the OTC as a single company.
The current structure does not favor LLBO or Cyrcadia. It is a mess for investors. Trading with a clear symbol like CYRC (available) would attract many more investors to the company.
Of course, this would be good only if the exchange of shares was done correctly between both companies, and thinking at all times in the interests of current LLBO investors.
What do you think? (Question open to all)
Cyrcadia part of The 2017 Cannes Innovation Lions Shortlist
https://www.canneslions.com/awards/innovation-shortlist
Look at the companies that have been selected:
APPLE, AUDI, AXA INSURANCE, BAIDU, FORD, GOOGLE INC., HEINEKEN, IBM, INTEL, NIKE, OCULUS, SAMSUNG, SHELL, U.S. POSTAL SERVICE, WHIRLPOOL...
People selling are going to miss the party.
IMO, from now on, Cyrcadia will not stop generating news and prizes.
THREE DAYS until the screening of Detected
Join us on 6/5 for the screening of #DetectedMovie, a director-cast meet & greet, cocktails & more. Details: https://t.co/va2GfwEPMz pic.twitter.com/d801ckGhxB
— Detected Movie (@detectedmovie) June 2, 2017
Cisco’s VP of Corporate Strategic Innovation talking about iTBra
Click here to see the video:
https://www.facebook.com/Cisco/videos/10156186577208032/
Go to minute 5 to start listening about iTbra and Detected Movie.
The only ones informing here are Rob Royea and CISCO.
- No one has seen the documentary Detected despite all the publicity of CISCO.
- We haven't heard from Jim Holmes since July 2016.
- No one knows if LLBO has already transferred patents to Cyrcadia.
- We don't know if LLBO will continue to be a listed company after the sale of patents.
- We don't know what Jim Holmes's plans for LLBO and its shareholders are.
- We don't know what is the new % that LLBO owns of Cyrcadia US.
- LLBO doesn't update its social networks since 2015.
- LLBO doesn't update its website since 2015.
- Cyrcadia hasn't updated its website since July 2016.
- Cyrcadia hasn't updated its social networks since April 2016.
- Matt Benardis has not updated his Twitter since October 2015.
- The web of http://cyrcadia.asia/ shows a coming soon ...
- The official Clinical Trial page has not been updated since March 2016.
The one who thinks this is normal is living in a parallel reality.
We have surely one of the best products of the 21st century, but an incompetent management team.
Jim Holmes has spent 30 years of his life carrying out a project, which he then sold to Cyrcadia for them to continue with the research and development because he wasn't able, and now Cyrcadia Health (US) sells it to Cyrcadia Asia for them to start selling in Asia.
After only 6 months of investment the owners of Cyrcadia Asia are going to start making money thanks to a whole lost life of Jim Holmes and his investors (us included). And thanks to all the work of Cyrcadia US of the last 5 years and their investors (you included).
The directors of Cyrcadia US and LLBO are not entrepreneurs, they are developers. Those who earn money arrive at the right time to buy and have the highest return on investment in the shortest possible time. That's doing business. The rest is losing a life.
Rob Royea is a winner and this is why he went to work for the winners in Asia.
What are LLBO and Cyrcadia US doing?. Nobody knows. But who cares, they have their salary for the next years and can continue in their confort zone as Jim Holmes (LLBO CEO) did for three decades and Matt Benardis (Cyrcadia US CEO) for nearly two.
We need fresh blood in this company. Someone like Rob Royea who has the courage to do the things that have to be done and make them fast. Otherwise we are in the hands of two people who have not demonstrated anything in decades. And when they show me otherwise, I will shut up and acknowledge my error. But this is not the case so far.
It's depressing that in a moment when we should be taking advantage of all the good news, we have to be discussing things that are so logical.
Jim Holmes must inform LLBO shareholders, and he doesn't. Dozens of things are happening and we have to find out thanks to Cyrcadia investors on this board, through Cyrcadia Asia or thanks to CISCO. I don't know how to define this circus anymore. LLBO and Cyrcadia US are like zombies.
Don't ask this here. Ask to Jim Holmes directly. I did again this morning. Everybody here should do it to be able to stop this nonsense. To contact him visit: http:www.otcmarkets.com/stock/LLBO/profile and search for his email.
Only the crazy ones invest in a company that don't communicate. This way LLBO stock price will never reach it real value.
Today: CISCO event on IoT and Detected (new tweet)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBRjQnKXUAIcIv7.png:large
Jim Holmes is not only an investor in Cyrcadia, he also has a key role in the Board of Directors of Cyrcadia. The decission that takes Cyrcadia are very influenced by his own opinions and votes.
http://cyrcadiahealth.com/management/
By the way, we all are indirect investors in Cyrcadia through the 40% that LLBO should own by now after the patents transfer (if already transfered).
But I agree that they are very bad communicating, both through social networks and through press releases for the media. Not to mention that their websites are totally outdated and do not show the correct information as of today.
I'm am happy as far as CISCO continues with the promotion of our technology. Whatever says CISCO has 1000 times the repercussion of what Cyrcadia or LLBO says. Promotion from Cyrcadia should start right after we get FDA clearance in some months.
Don't worry, the promotion of CISCO will continue throughout this year and the next, until iTbra is proven to be the greatest medical revolution in the world of wearables and IoT. We are in good hands here.
Now people are afraid to sell and stay out, because the huge rise can happen at any time and the price may never go below $0.01 again.
New Detected tweet (the screening starts tomorrow)
Won’t be able to make the Monday screening of Detected at @ahryafinearts? Catch it daily at 3 pm from June 2-8: https://t.co/ibGOLqAHYk
— Detected Movie (@detectedmovie) June 1, 2017
Another CISCO tweet
Can #IoT tech help with early and accurate breast cancer detection? @detectedmovie and @IrmaRaste explore: https://t.co/yfb8f8EHt5 pic.twitter.com/9Osy02A5oJ
— Cisco (@Cisco) June 1, 2017
If their system works and Cyrcadia is a success, they should consider buying them over time. Having already early detection + prevention and cure would allow us to close the circle.
More competition for iTbra. Could even cure cancer.
This is from 2015 and they should already be in clinical trials, but I've never listened nobody talking about this one in the past.
World Cancer Day: The real Wonderbra
- https://www.wareable.com/wearable-tech/world-cancer-day-foxleaf-real-wonderbra-739
WESTMINSTER BIOTECHNOLOGY SPECIALIST HELPS DEVELOP BRA TO PREVENT AND TREAT BREAST CANCER
- https://www.westminster.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2015/westminster-biotechnology-specialist-helps-develop-bra-to-prevent-and-treat-breast-cancer
I like your optimism, but let's go step by step.
Let's start by watching the Detected movie when they make it public, then find out what the LLBO percentage is in Cyrcadia and Cyrcadia Asia, if they plan to remain a public and separate company once the patents have been sold, and have confirmation of clearance by the FDA.
Cyrcadia is a private company so it is very likely that we will not know sales figures until Change goes to the general meeting in 2019. Many things must happen yet to see those numbers.
Fitbit (FIT) reached a peak of 12B market cap during his first year in the NASDAQ with 785M of revenue the previous one.
For LLBO to reach $1 and using a multiple of 20 times Cyrcadia yearly revenue and the numbers of Change (100K itBra sold + monthly fees = $39M), Cyrcadia should have anual revenues of $375M.
This means that in order to reach a $1 share price for LLBO, Cyrcadia must sell 1 million units in the US (1 for every 162 women). But this is perfectly possible because Cyrcadia will enter other markets too (Canada, Mexico, France, England, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc.)
So those who have the courage and the time to wait 4 years more could see those numbers if the iTbra is a commercial success. But that's a lot of time and courage.
Just to complement your answer, mZor is trading at 27 times 2016 revenue. If Cyrcadia would have one day the 36M in revenue that mZor had in 2016, that could translate into an equivalent $971M market cap.
Assuming the numbers are OK, the market cap of LLBO would be $388,800,000 with a share price of $0.1239
So IMO it is realistic to think that between now and the end of 2018 we could be trading at that price if US sales start at the beginning of 2018 and are a success. Once sales has started and are known by everybody, the LLBO price should never go down again.
Change can correct me if needed.
Our current market value is only 10M (marginal), so lets consider that is not an increase in market value, but a full market value.
A market value of $250M for LLBO would mean a $0.0797 in share price:
- Outstanding Shares 3,138,880,967
- Market value $250,000,000
- Share price = $250,000,000 / 3,138,880,967 = $0.0797
But remember that LLBO should own around 40% of Cyrcadia by now, so this mean that Cyrcadia would be valuated, according to the LLBO share price, at $250,000,000 + $375,000,000 (remaining 60%) = $625,000,000
Everyone here can have their own opinion on whether that valuation is realistic or overly optimistic. But I consider it possible if sales in Asia begin to show that the product is salable in large quantities.
While LLBO is part of the equation, and since it is a publicly traded company, it is LLBO that sets the real market value of Cyrcadia and not the other way around. This is my point of view, although other people calculate the valuation according to the price at which Cyrcadia is selling its shares (they are different points of view).
The price at which Cyrcadia sells its shares privately is irrelevant from my point of view, since if the LLBO price does not grow proportionally, this means that the market is not believing that private valuation. Although private investors do believe it. This is why I believe that at any given time in the near future Cyrcadia is not going to be interested in having 40% of its shares traded on the OTC. Because it affects the price at which they are valuing their shares in each new capital increase. This perception will only change if one day LLBO is valued at a reasonable price and maintains that price over time.