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They say the best way to ruin capitalism is to destroy the relationship between creditor and debtor.
So i would imagine if you do the opposite and strengthen the relationship, you should strengthen capitalism.
My thinking here... is the toxic debt needs to be dealt with, foreclosure needs to happen if people arent paying their bills. Until the debtors are scared of consequences there will never be a good investing enviornment in greece.
I am not really a good chart reader, but I havent seen much accumulation recently...
He certainly didn't buy 16 million shares recently... if anything he added to his large portion...
probably getting out of the dollar as it rallies...
If you want the 28 billion back, why would you want to share that with another entity...
you either want justice, previous assets, and escrows, or you want the company to join with others and utilize Tax advantages...
but you shouldnt want both at the same time...
and FYI if there is value to escrows or previous assets that we've "written down" than we probably dont have NOL value.
still dilution is the problem
some 691 million, some of which getting a haircut...
LOL...
aka
the light at the end of the tunnel might be a train.
I guess, the worst case scenario is if the 4.6 billion dollar bond offering falls apart.
Do we have any insight as to NBG's credit worthiness and at what price those bonds might cost?
IMHO this isnt a WAG investment... although it has political pressure, it is a distressed stock that has been overly hyped down... it is exactly what Benjamin Graham spoke of.
No reason to be down 13%...
bank is showing improvements, has 2 plans to recapitalize without government aid, and deposits are slowly returning...
all good signs...
reverse split doesnt mean anything except that we wont get delisted from NYSE
Dilution helps with recapitalization, although it adjusts our risk/reward ratio for the stock...
Its a reverse split, 1:15
at 60 cents would transition to $9
The more important question is how is the dilution happening?
I'd say that the converted shares could control as much as 40% of the company and as little as 10% of the company. It would all depend on the price of conversion and the market value of NBG at the time of that transaction
9.25% isnt really a slow bleed
I guess one of the most important questions, is how will the bonds be converted, and at what price, before or after the Reverse Split... could be a lucrative deal...
3rd Quarter earnings published by NBG. Here are the highlights...
strangely they posted a profit in Greece, still operating at a loss in general.
https://www.nbg.gr/english/the-group/press-office/press-releases/Documents/Press_Release_3Q15_EN%20%283%29.pdf
JPM bid was not the only bid... it was the only qualifying bid...
Its the Greek Government...
i) Increase in the Bank’s share capital due to capitalization of part of the Bank’s special reserve of article 4.4a of Codified Law 2190/1920, and concurrent (ii) increase in the nominal value of each common registered voting share of the Bank and reduction in the aggregate number of such shares by means of a reverse split, and (iii) reduction in the share capital of the Bank through reduction in the nominal value of each common registered voting share of the Bank (as it stands after the reverse split), with a view to forming an equivalent special reserve, as per article 4.4a of Codified Law 2190/1920, or,alternatively, through setting off against losses. Amendment of article 4 of the Bank’s Articles of Association. Granting of authorities.
Obviously anyone invested or thinking about it should read 6-k and not hear-say on the internet.
On the agenda will be a reverse split and a conversion of convertible bonds to equity, and an additional bond issuance of 4.6 billion euro.
These will likely be voted yes, due to possibilities of state intervention.
However, if they are to issue bonds of 4.6 billion, and restructure the equity and various convertible bonds, why sell the Turkish bank?
Agreed...
I think that would be a big middle finger to "Hellenic Financial Stability Fund" which owns 53% of athens NBG.
However, I know that the preferred shareholders believe that a forced conversion of US based junior securities should be very difficult through the SEC, showing NYSE or US based holders a preference in upcoming dilution.
Short ban should have been lifted Nov 2nd in athens
SEC filing, agenda for a shareholder meeting on 17 November... 6-k published a little after close today
should be 15 to 1... whatever market cap is, should stay the same.
it will be the debt to equity conversion that will have a price attached to it, and if they get it at 30% par value, it will be good for us.
SEC filing?
I think it'll be good for the stock. I would have to do the math, but i think there is enough pessimism built into the stock that 'a plan', a road to recovery, will send the stock back closer book value... and again reducing liabilities(junior or senior debt)just increases book value which helps us on market valuations.
obviously a company without earnings will have a bad book to value ratio(but nothing like we are sitting now), but we should be cash rich in coming months, and the economy is growing.
It's on the meeting agenda, I'm of the assumption it needs shareholder approval
It is possible for a r/s and dilution to be beneficial to all stakeholders.
Not saying this is good, but if a r/s reduces total number of shares, and market capitalization remains the same.
A reduction in liabilities via conversion to common shares would allow market capitalization to increase in the same amount it was diluting.
In the past r/s and dilution the government took a large portion of the company without adding much to the bottom line, here it seems they are trying to avoid that.
you mean the conversion of their debt to equity.
Apparently what would be considered fraudulent conveyance of assets in the US (sale for turkish bank less than liquidation value) and a conversion of debt to equity that hinder's the creditor's value will open the Greek state up to monetary and legal recourse.
I find this whole thing strange, I hate some of the US legal rules, but at least they make sense, this is pure fraud and it's not even the bank's fault.
I'm betting shorts are at it again...
looks like we might be down 15%-20 at open... Pretrading on NYSE is at .71
Probably not with a prime minister with a communist background.
yeah I just skimmed over it, any idea what those conversions mean for commons?
OBviously book value should go up with liabilities removed
Also I havent seen the news, but Preferred forums are complaining that some 200 million shares will see conversion. And they are rumored to be at a 70% haircut.
I think end of day traders are afraid of Athen's open price. Seemed to die off, lack of volume
strange the majority of the volume happened in the first half hour before the halt
I wonder if this includes Profits from Turkist bank?
Last few quarters they were still breaking even
I Think the worst case scenario was when the government mandated maximum withdraws. I suppose those haven't been relaxed yet
I think that the price before the referendum of 1.20Euro had already calculated uncertainty and the bank's poor condition.
The bank has seen an inflow since, and I believe that 1.20 should be a line of support at some point.
Especially if liabilities are shed
6k looks like NBG is not so bad, didn't read every line but looks like NBG is healthier than others...
Although in last 12 months it has had an outflow of 52 Billion Euros... a lot if you ask me...
They expect after banks are recapitalized, they expect an inflow of about 6-7 Billion Euro.
On the same token, shorts should cover...
Monday will gap up or down dramatically. And I think there is too much negative figured into the shares for it to gap down.
Tends to happen every 3 months, I'd say it's directors awarded shares...
Found this on a Yahoo board
The National with larger capital needs 5.2-5.3 billion but ... surprise immediately repaying all cocos
The National will implement PRM 5.2 to 5.3 billion. which about 1.7 billion. to a base and about 3.5 billion. unfavorable (with some variations the numbers mentioned).
The National will immediately proceed to an exchange offer for all bonds and senior and this development will reduce the final amount of the minimum capital growth.
The 3,5-3 H, 4 billion. The adverse scenario would cover 2.6 billion. cocos and 900-800 million euro capital increase.
National but H has decided to proceed with a major - groundbreaking decision to repay cocos convertible bond with an interest rate of 8% will cover the FSF, selling directly strategic rate of Finansbank. Finansbank.
The current capitalization of Finansbank amounts to EUR 5.9 billion. Which means that selling 51% or 67% can raise funds to repay cocos convertible bonds.
The National but I have to repay 1.35 billion. Preference shares .
It is not excluded to sell 99% of Finansbank ie to withdraw fully from Turkey repaying the cocos and preference shares.
The National in this case will lose Finansbank but it will be the only bank with minimal state assistance.
Banks want to quickly repay cocos bond convertible into shares because there is a danger to convert ... .In shares and over the state to acquire a large share in banks
According to last quarter's statement they have over 100M$ to distribute once claims are allowed or denied.