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It changes everything. Warrants that can be converted immediately versus warrants that cannot. It will be interesting to watch the trading over the next several days.
Insightful and I agree :)
Look at my next post that answers your question.
Incorrect. No market maker will take that kind of exposure even for a day. The shorts will need to pony up or the market maker will buy shares to cover. I still see a very good potential for a short squeeze. Because most of these are boutique short funds and where are they going to get this kind of financing till Nov 1. The Fed will not finance them, will they (LOL)?
I'm beginning to think that this was a (dare I say it) brilliant move by our leader :)
Senti, this is my thinking. 233m warrants cannot be exercised until Nov 1. And let's suppose there is a 233m naked short position (intended to be hedged by these warrants). Upon TLD, if the share price goes up to say $5, then there is bound to be a margin call on this short position that cannot be immediately covered with the suspended warrants. This margin call will need to be financed to the tune of approximately $1.2 billion. If the stock price goes to $10, then they need to finance $2.33 billion. That's my take. I don't see how else they get around this constraint.
If that argument makes you feel better, go for it.
There are no extended warrants. There are only expired warrants and suspended warrants.
Manibiotech, so who is clueless now ?
What happened to Manibiotech? Is he sulking? I guess he's upset no one is talking about the warrants anymore :)
Damn, that Les has made me want to buy more shares. After I thought I had filled up to my ears.
Nice try Manibiotech. It's ludicrous that a general counsel would say such a thing. Let's not get desperate with these outlandish propositions. Don't expect me to join your i-know-someone-who-knows-but-i-can't-tell-you la la land.
What evidence do you have that this conversation actually happened? Because Umibe said so ? Every time somebody says they spoke to LG, I'm thinking "dear God, not again!". And some folks here are inclined to sue the company because of this so-called conversation? What are they going to say in the filing - because Umibe told me so? Geez!!
For everything that LG supposedly said over the years and which did not prove to be correct, if he actually did say them, he should probably be serving a long jail sentence now.
This whole thread about free warrant extensions for a preferred few is a big smoke-screen by the usual suspects in my opinion.
I'm not joking. Interpretations of conversations with LG are in the eyes/ears of the beholder :)
My point is, how we all continue to jump to conclusions because someone says they had a conversation with LG.
All this based on your conversation with LG ? Over the years, I have heard so many people talk about their conversations with LG, and no of them have turned out to be true. A lawyer has told you that they have offered a sweetheart deal to the CEO and to certain investors only? And he still has his job with the company? Geez, no wonder it has so many people riled up.
I heard they have a cell reserved for him in Rikers Island :). The prison guards were overheard asking what's taking so long.
I specifically asked Linda at the 2019 ASM if she will unblind only when the regulators have approved the SAP. (I used the word "approve" because I didn't know better). Her answer was yes. I agree we all realize that it's possible that some RAs may not have commented or responded. We don't know if NWBO, after advisory from the SAB, has decided to unblind regardless. It's worth asking DI that question. But I suspect we will not get an answer on that one.
I'm inclined to believe that they have the blessing of all the RAs, based on the tone of today's call, all that "excitement" in so many sentences, the fact that DI didn't seem too vague in response to the SAP question, the theory (if true) that Duffy came to help with the SAP, and so on and so forth :)
This is the most beautiful thing I have ever heard from Linda :)
Clarification from DI about the SAP:
xxxx.
Good question. When We lock data base you can assume it is. That should be in May. I think the fact that we focused on data issues speaks for itself
Sent from my iPhone
On Apr 18, 2020, at 2:09 PM, xxxxxx wrote:
?
Dear Dave,
Does this mean the SAP is done ?
Thanks,
xxxxx
And the SAP is done (whew!). Which means the regulators are on board. I like that. I can wait 2-3 months.
Mesoblast's Remistemcel-L was cleared by the FDA yesterday for expanded access compassionate use in ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) cased by COVID-19. You may want to see if this may be relevant for your friend.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-clears-investigational-drug-application-100010964.html
I can't believe most are still asking for timeline to TLD. Time's up. 18 months since SAP process started. Linda said unblinding after SAP in place. The time is now. Not after ASM.
Manibiotech seems to be extremely agitated tonight. I wonder why ? :)
I don't think Kevin Duffy ever relocated to the DC area. His Linkedin details state his location was Weston, FL during his tenure with NWBio. Weston, FL is his location with Merck too. He may have commuted to the DC area, but it looks like he never relocated.
What is his phone number?
Hey, what happened to Scotty ??
Here's my take on this ASM date announcement. In order for Linda to provide a date, she must have some clarity on moving forward on certain steps. And she would have built-in a buffer if she needed a few extra weeks. My guess is they have decided to data-lock and unblind. This means the SAP is probably all squared away (it's about time!). My guess is we hear TL announcement in about a month from now. I'm also hoping that there will be some announcement on a partnership just before the ASM. She may want to give a few weeks between TL and partnership so things don't look legally fishy. The ASM hopefully is being set up for a celebration - my take on their wording.
Not to mention his excellent skills in imitating people with Parkinson's disease.
I did. Here is his response:
Dave Innes <dinnes@nwbio.com>
To:xxxxxx
Jan 31 at 9:54 AM
Not yet but will let everyone know when we do.
Best
Dave
Sent from my iPhone
On Jan 31, 2020, at 9:10 AM, xxxxxx wrote:
Dear Dave,
Has the company set a date for the annual shareholder meeting? Don't regulations require that the ASM be held within 13 months of the previous meeting?
Much thanks!
XXX
BSB, not unreasonable at all. In line with my thinking.
But I'm a bit skeptical about next week since it is Thanksgiving week when market activity will be muted. Most likely the week of December 2.
8 days to unblind; 17 days (November 18th morning) for topline.
Thank you Antihama. Very interesting indeed.
Do we know if this study measured survival from date of surgery ?
I believe now that when they said back in Nov 2018 "several stages of work, each a multi-month process", they were setting us up for a really long wait. The foot-dragging using the SAP and data collection as an excuse. I have never heard of another bio-tech saying that SAP and data collection are a big deal. Okay, so it is pioneering - so 6 months is plenty for pioneering dammit!. Now I really think they are waiting for something else to happen. Either they are shooting for 4 years or maybe they are waiting for SEC resolution. Either way, I'm pissed that they have not finalized the SAP.
Or Linda could have threatened to build her own manufacturing (she's done it before) and Cognate believes MWBO is a potentially huge client.
The $10M contingent/deferred payable is a positive. I thought it may help to summarize the Cognate deal as follows:
NWBO owes Cognate 52,000,000 shares
Cognate gives up entitled shares 40,000,000 shares
Applied price per share (guess) 0.33
Value of shares foregone $13,200,000
NWBO deferred payment- due 2020 1,200,000
NWBO upfront payment - now 2,000,000
Payment to Cognate upon approval 10,000,000
Total $13,200,000
Reduced billing from Cognate $10,000,000
Thanks much Senti ! That's interesting. This is the Bloomberg piece today that got me thinking:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/uber-bears-already-snapped-up-70-of-shares-available-to-short?srnd=premium
"The potential pain to come can be seen in the cost of borrowing shares of its competitor, Lyft Inc. With more than 80% of Lyft’s lendable stock out on loan, the cost to borrow shares for new shorts hovers near 35% on an annualized basis, IHS Markit data show. That compares to somewhere between 1% and 2% for Uber, though its free float is about 5.5 times larger, which accounts for part of the difference. The borrow cost for Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. is about 0.25% to 0.5%."
Does anyone know what is the current cost to borrow NWBO stock ?