Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Assessing How Much an Alzheimer’s Drug is Worth
Summary of the Event Studies
"Based on the event studies on Biogen’s Aducanumab and Lilly’s Donanemab, the value of a drug candidate at or ready for Phase 3 trial would be worth $20.2 billion to $20.7 billion, and a Breakthrough Therapy Designation has a value of $13.4 billion. An Alzheimer’s drug approved by the FDA carries a market value of $43.4 billion."
https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2021/10/26/assessing-much-alzheimers-drug-worth/id=139154/
AVXL Shares Outstanding
10/28/2015 31.13M
12/29/2015 34.60M
2/5/2016 34.65M
5/11/2016 35.71M
8/11/2016 35.71M
12/12/2016 39.61M
2/7/2017 41.07M
5/10/2017 41.38M
8/7/2017 42.17M
12/8/2017 44.22M
2/7/2018 44.57M
5/10/2018 44.66M
8/9/2018 45.43M
12/12/2018 46.59M
1/22/2019 46.89M
5/8/2019 49.12M
8/7/2019 52.65M
8/30/2019 300.00M Error?
12/12/2019 56.12M
2/6/2020 58.66M
5/7/2020 58.66M
8/4/2020 60.19M
12/28/2020 66.96M
2/12/2021 69.49M
5/11/2021 70.04M
8/12/2021 75.71M
11/19/2021 76.02M
https://www.sharesoutstandinghistory.com/avxl/
You mean people invest money based on information about dates? Surely no one would have traded options based on the idea that data should have been released last month. How do you cover those losses?
Right.
Like I said, it depends on what is revealed. It only takes once to commit a crime and I have invested in a couple of baby bios that have lost that battle.
What does Anavex have to say about COVID...
What do they have to lose? Reputation... I don't think so.
It will be interesting to see related dates and if Missling sat on data, especially if it is marginal, or worse. Being in possession of that data alone, regardless of any claim that no data was shared, is enough for a lawsuit. The moment the sealed data is opened for analysis to the time of news release is open for interrogation. There is a reasonable expectation that investors will be informed in a timely manner.
There better not be bad results. This isn't same old, same old.
The big spike in volume at EOD is what is interesting. It will tell the story if things get ugly.
Ah, yes. Because Anavex announced they are attending the 40th annual JP Morgan Healthcare conference, there must be a dot to BIO Partnering. Maybe they are attending, I don't see the invisible line or dot though.
"Please note BIO and the BIO One-on-One Partnering system are not affiliated with J.P. Morgan, the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, or any other concurrent conference during JPM Week in San Francisco."
I don't see Anavex on the list. Am I missing something?
Wonder if it is Missling selling shares again?
Wonder how many times a target can be missed before a lawsuit ensues... there are certainly damages.
Trials evaluating muscarinic receptors have failed based safety profile, and interestingly have shown improvements in CNS endpoints. Sigma 1 has been the subject of many trials, generally well tolerated and shown clinical benefit in other CNS areas.
The publication referencing Tanzi's work didn't align with other research.
That is a big assumption. What makes you beleive they would be synergistic?
Acadia's success has nothing to do with Anavex. It may create a smaller market share, however, the population will remain the same. Which drug would you prefer, one that gives you diarrhea/vomiting or one that makes you feel better, without any nasty side effects? Patients and doctors would choose. Which one is more effective. The first to market BS is irrelevant.
This makes more sense to me. An adjunct therapy may clear the pathway for Anavex to work in cases where response is minimal. There seems to be some protection from inflamation that is provided by sigma 1 therapies, thus why Anavex can simultaneously target muscarinic receptors without significant side effects. I would think that some side effects described in other drugs would be lessened more by A2-73, vs 3-71 due to the way it modulates a broad spectrum of muscarinic receptors in combination of sigma 1.
What is messed up about this is that those other drugs should be an add on therapy to Anavex, not the other way around. I believe it is the only way for those other therapies to achieve a reasonable safety profile. Unfortunately, I also believe they could combine with some other therapies to achieve a similar and less effective response.
I believe Anavex is about to get thier foot in the door and will be capable of sparking a chain reaction of add on therapies that will accelerate the discovery of a true cure for alzheimers, if caught early on. I also believe alzheimers manifests in many different ways, thus the difficulty in finding and demonstrating effective treatment.
A2-73 targets more muscarinic receptors than A3-71, and both sigma 1. There is a reason A3-71 only targets M1 muscarinic receptors. Did Missling state these could be a combo therapy? I would be curious about the reasoning considering the research to this point would not be supportive of the combination of these two drugs as being synergistic.
Something is amiss with that statement. Considering the focus has been on the Sigma 1 receptor, and all but ignoring muscarinic receptors, there would be some overlap. What happened to biomarkers and precision medicine? Double?
Thanks, Tom. No worries, I know you are performing an analysis of potential targets, math wise. I make investment decisions of my own volition. I occassionally see how my price targets line up with your analysis. My question is rhetorical.
Bounce back to $20?
Hmmm, crypto $AVXL... AvaXlauncher
Looks oversold for the day. Let's see if it slides sideways or recovers slightly before turning down again. Didn't see the 30 day on the chart, so down it is.
Nice! Anavex to release year end financials the day before Thanksgiving. Wonder if it will be after market close? Gnaw, gnaw, gnaw, hope it is a nail biter.
Your yellow line intersects the Bollinger band vs the peak. Why would you setup like that? Would drawing the line through the peak and waiting for a cross be a better indication of future price movement?
I don't think this company has enough action to look at the one month, and typically has a wide trading range. Look at the 1 year... I would like to see us break to the $28-30 level at least. But a breakout higher would give me more confidence in a new trading range.
No, I'm looking for over $25.00. We have broken through a couple of layers of resistance within a reasonable trading range. Let's see this thing re-value.
Don't stall now. Let's breakout!
This company has a terrible history of updating clinical trial information in a timely manner. I wouldn't be surprised if it has been fully recruited. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't.
If I recall correctly, this was largely covered up by other failures in the AD SPACE.
Haven't you heard? It's coming. Not like a holiday, or weekend, like the day you discover you're having a kid, or the day you find a $20 in the dryer...
Oh, I didn't know. When did you find out? Is there something you can share that shows it doesn't work?
Tanzi is building the pathway backward, step by step. Probably effective in the long run, but SLOOOWWW to get there.
What happens when the brain is cleared of Amyloid Beta... crickets...
It is relevant...
PRE-084 is a sigma-1 agonist. There is alot of research on this.
This is a bunch of BS. Of course, everyone has the goods. There is no way of knowing without clinical trials and there is certainly alot of research data on A2-73, Sigma 1 agonists, and the use of muscarinic receptors. Tough nut to crack...
Noone knows the Golden answer, yet... only time and money will tell.