Yielddude, in response to your KSWW question, that's funny that you chose to question that selection. Out of the 6 I picked, I did the littlest amount of research on KSWW. I estimated price potential based on two methods:

1) Their current backlog is $79 million, versus $16.4 million last year per 1Q press release. Last year, in May, their stock price was approx $.75. Increasing this share price by the increase in backlog gets about $3.61.

2) Gross margin in 1Q05 was 11.5%. If $79 million is turned into revenue w/in 12 months (I have no idea if this is even remotely possible), then gross margin may approximate $9 million. Subtracting $5 million for SG&A and Depr. gets an EBIT of approximately $4 million. I found an article which stated that commercial HVAC companies are valued up to 5x EBIT multiples. Applying this multiple to $4 million results in a valuation of approx. $20 million, or $3.66 per share.

Since these estimates were veryy close with each other and over double the current share price, I looked at the balance sheet, which was reasonable and threw it on my list. I don't own it, but for contest purposes, I also like the low trading volume because there is a chance that someone may overpay for some shares near the end of the contest and jack up the price for several days.

My favorite entry for contest purposes is definitely ASPN.OB. I am excited to see what that stock may do if they are able to go 10-for-10 on drilling prospects over the last 6 months of '05.

cl001, I had tried to do some research on Lyamec, C. Anthony Reed, and American Finance as well. I believe that Lyamec is real as well (have had their web site since 12/99), but they are also not listed in phone books in either Texas or DC where they have offices, they are not listed with Martindale-Hubbell (national law firm directory), and I find it odd that given the typical attorney ego, no law partners or backgrounds are listed on the web site. This could be due to cultural etiquette in Libya, anonymity desired due to high risk of entering Libya, and/or minimal experience. At any pont, it doesn't settle well with me.

I could find nothing material on either C. Anthony Reed or American Finance outside of Lyamec, which isn't necessarily that unusual for a private fund. For C. Anthony Reed, all I could find is that his phone number is from New Mexico (areacodeszipcodes.com), and if that is correct, then I think his first name is Charles and he is 48 years old (ussearch.com). The only Anthony Reed's that I could find in the lending business work at Ameriquest and Flexpoint Capital, but that name is not that uncommon, so that DD fizzled.

Anyway, I wish everyone the best on their respective GFCI investments, although if it shoots too high, I will be very angry at myself for sitting on the sideline.

Bobwins/Wade, this is in response to a discussion you were having on the VM message board related to Grifco. I seriously considered buying a lot of GFCI when it announced its earnings/forecast, but did not pull the trigger because of the following concerns (although I would have made some substantial profits in the meantime). I thought I would point out some risks of my DD just to generate some sort of response:

Major points of concern:

1. If all these PR’s are true, including March 9th Shared Buyback PR (what a bunch of crap!), what is the point of being public? First of all, why would Company announce buyback before hyping stock to higher prices? Secondly, if Grifco can make all these acquisitions with cash, and the acquisitions and new products are going to generate substantially more cash, why not be private? Wouldn’t the company be much better off generating cash for the owners, not announcing the alleged ridiculous margins that its customers should be paying attention to (and annoyed at), as well as avoiding Sarb-Ox and other hassles of being public?
2. Sketchy trade of ticker symbols between Dial and previous CEO Jarvis. Documentation displays that Dial incorporated Summit Entertainment Group (Ticker: SETG) on October 1. After only one month, on November 1, he resigned as Summit's President/CEO and Jarvis became President/CEO of Summit. Then, on November 19, Jarvis resigned as CEO of LitFiber and Dial took over as the Grifco CEO. Furthermore, Jim Dial allegedly has massive experience with previous companies, but Company chose not to disclose his background or previous ventures.
3. Griffith already filed bankruptcy for original Grifco in 2001. Company was ordered to be liquidated in Chapter 11, but pleaded to be kept in tact in order to accomplish merger that was planned with several other entities. Was unsuccessful in this request with bankruptcy judge.
4. Per BK filing, Grifco Revenue for the 10 months ended April 2001 was $282,800. To have approx. $7.5 m in July to December 2004 represents 44x last reported revenues (comparing on a monthly basis), or estimated annual rev. CAGR of 254%, which is pretty amazing for a company that was liquidated and had to start over.
5. Grifco’s A/R during the bankruptcy filing was only $381,000 ($74,100 due from Grifco International). $251,000 of total A/R, or 66%, was over 120 days old. “Big Name” customers such as Amoco, Chevron, Exxon have little, if any, A/R.
6. If new “Jet Motor” is so revolutionary and high margined with immediate paybacks, why wouldn’t Grifco had already be taken out so a larger player industry could own the technology (at an alleged significant cheap purchase), save on costs, and potentially profit from it or use it exclusively for its own advantage?
7. Other companies that Princeton Research has “featured”/promoted have not performed well. Additionally, King and Princeton have retracted releases which it has made about Grifco (specifically referring to Q&A). IMO, Princeton definitely appears to be a PR-as-in prostitute shop rather than PR as in Public Relations (or IR).

Points of lesser concern:

8. Grifco “acquired” Coil Tubing Technology, which was already conveniently located in the same building as Grifco’s headquarters. Is an upcoming acquisition target going to be “Pipeguard of Texas” (Same building and offers pigging products) – might as well maintain the convenience factor, eh?
9. Admittedly, I am not too familiar with industry, but cannot find enough instances of Grifco, KO-VAC, Global Oil Tools, Coil Tubing Technology to believe revenue forecasts. Additionally, any articles related to terms “Grifco” or “Silver Hawg” have minimal historical results prior to GFCI becoming publicly traded and hyped.
10. Per other posters, Company is difficult to contact at best, including during business hours. Do customers have secret phone numbers for transaction and customer service purposes?
11. I don’t trust outstanding shares and float calculations. Turnover on float too high if numbers I have seen posted are accurate.
12. Web site is really weak and has not been updated since discussed, which was several months ago and would cost very little on a relative basis.
13. Patent issues and discrepancies, as previously mentioned on this board.
14. Grifco is not even listed in the phone book in either city which it is located.
15. Company did not proofread PR dated March 3rd which stated earnings were $2.6M and later stated $2.5M (minor point, but still bothered me).

Just so I don’t seem too harsh, I did tell a co-worker when this stock was at $0.26 that if he bought it, it had a 50% chance of being a 20-bagger and a 50% chance of turning into a goose egg from being a potential scam. Also, I am heavily invested into NWAU, another pinkie, so I am not anti-PK. Sorry to post this long of a message, but I felt that the prior post warranted a response and I appreciate the intellectual banter exchanged on this board.

Here's the answer key:

ASPN.OB, AVEE.OB, EXXA, GIGM, KSWW.OB and MVCO.

Lentinman, I am pretty confident that all of those qualify, but in the event one doesn't, please use DGIX.OB as my alternate.

Thanks.

LFLT: Short-term, I would agree that it is likely a good short. I think it has shot up based on recent publicity and likely will not have the sales or profits to back it up.

Long-term, who knows? They are talking about running clinical trials and seeking FDA approval. This seems like an all-or-nothing stock to me.

LFLT-

LFLT has had some favorable movement leading up to and after yesterday's announcements:

1. Their product Protandim will be featured on ABC Prime Time Live tonight; and
2. They successfully raised some additional capital via a PIPE.

Does anyone have any knowledge regarding this one?

jtomm-

I got the documents at

https://pacer.login.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/login.pl?court_id=00idx

Unfortunately, you need to register to be able to download the documents, which are $.08 per page. If anyone would like, you can give me a private reply with your email and I can forward you the PDF files which I summarized. If you join, it is really cheap and convenient and good for due diligence at only $.08 per page.

No, I did not see any evidence of fraud. It does not bother me that much either, but did not know if I might have been missing some insight that I had not considered.

Grifco Filed Chapter 11 in 2001

I posted this on RB, but got no response:

Apparently, Grifco Inc., owned 100% by Jerry Griffith, file for bankruptcy in 2001 in the District Court of Lousiana. Case # was 01-50528-LO-11.

From the docs I can see, revenue for the 10 months ending April 2001 was $282.8 thousand, gross profit of $264.7 thousand (94%), and Net Income of $69 thousand (24%).

In this case, Grifco filed because its main creditor (Hibernia Nat'l Bank) was about to foreclose on all of its assets. During the proceedings, Grifco claimed that for the past several months, Grifco was involved with several other oilfield service companies who were supposed to be purchased by another entity (not named). This never came to fruition and the Judge ultimately ordered a Chapter 7 liquidation.

Not sure how to interpret this information - obviously the Company was somewhat profitable, albeit a much, much smaller company than it is today. Chapter 7 and filing for BK is obviously not favorable for management history or Grifco, as it was obviously once overburdened with too much debt.

Good luck to all. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this info.

Man Arrested for Stalking Wife with GPS System in Car

This is from today's Denver Post. Wonder if there are any potential implications to GPS providers or used auto retailers attaching systems to cars:

Article Published: Monday, February 14, 2005
briefs

Springs man being accused of stalking wife using GPS

Colorado Springs - Michael Carlson is being held on $3,000 bail, accused of stalking his wife - using a Global Positioning System device.

He was arrested Friday after an argument with his wife when he blurted out that he knew where she was going because he had planted a transceiver in her car. As far as police could recall, it was the first arrest here for stalking with a GPS, said Sgt. Tim Stankey.

The transceiver, about 4 inches long and 3 inches wide, was powered by the car battery and recorded everywhere she went, Stankey said. The information could be accessed later with a computer.

Carlson's wife's name was not released.

The Stalking Resource Center at the National Center for Victims of Crime says GPS stalking is a growing problem across the country.

Basic GPS devices, once sold for $1,000 or more, now are advertised on the Web for as low as $400

Bobwins-

Miller had stated somewhere, I believe in his interview, that he anticipates earnings growth by adding one dealership per quarter for eight quarters. If this is the case, I would expect that the $.30 is a buildup over the year - For example, $.05, $.065, $.085, $.10. Does anyone else have a different interpretation that the company is already at a run rate of $.30 + whatever benefit from the acquisition? I am not sure if this acquisition would be assumed in the forecast along with 3 other acquisitions or not.

Did anyone else notice that on otcgrowth's web site that they are also promoting the Hampden Group, another subprime financer that attaches a GPS system to cars that are sold? Looks like it is an easy business plan to replicate. Both are based in AZ.