Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Copy and paste is about all you seem to be good at. Try putting some original thoughts into your posts.
For someone who says he is not a socialist, you sure put a lot of effort into supporting it.
You mean I didn't provide a definition that you like. A drift to bigger and bigger government which controls more and more of our lives and redistributes earned income and wealth is a drift toward socialism.
I don't want subsidies or entitlements and I don't like socialism either.
It has been a big disappointment in countries that have gone to it.
You never answered my question either:
Are you a socialist?
DWAC And I always thought the financial markets filtered politics out of valuatons. According to TdAm this one is at 13,500X Price/Book!
I never said that health care is socialized in this country. Most hospitals and doctors clinics are privately owned. But Obamacare is a big step towards socializing the health insurance industry. The government mandates what the insurance policies are required to include. It also mandates how much insurance policies cost based on policyholders income. Socialism rarely becomes the norm in one fell swoop, but our government sure is heading in that direction right now with all these new multi-trillion dollar social programs that our country can't afford and would leave us disadvantaged in the world economy.
Are you a socialist? If so, it seems odd that you would spend so much time on an investors forum which is mostly about capitalism, private enterprise, and free markets.
Socialism is all about big government controlling more and more of our lives. The socialist government claims they are representing the working class but in reality it is much more about politicians and bureaucrats empowering themselves while redistributing wealth through entitlements and taxation.
Obamacare is a great example of the socialization of health insurance. When Obamacare became law, I lost my private insurance plan I was happy with to a government controlled plan that initially cost more than double and continued to get much more expensive every year. It was also a crappier plan with larger deductibles and yes, I had to find a new doctor too.
As for Social Security, I said many times over the years that I would opt out of it if I could and do my own retirement plan. For many years I had to pay 15% of my income into SS as I was self employed. I was never given that option to opt out as it was mandated by the government. Same goes with Medicare.
I'm all for taking care of our Veterans but for too many years that was another poorly run and wasteful government program.
This multi- trillion dollar democratic reconciliation bill is nothing but socialism on steroids. It is not what most people want and we can simply not afford it.
TPH That strong report bodes well for all the homebuilders reporting next week. TPH's CEO had lots of positive comments and closed with this:
“With a robust backlog, a healthy demand outlook and a strong balance sheet, Tri Pointe Homes is poised to finish 2021 on a high note and carry that momentum into 2022. We believe a number of the demand drivers that are currently in place should persist for the foreseeable future, creating an excellent operating environment for our company. As a result, we are extremely optimistic about the future of Tri Pointe Homes.”
Joe Manchin should switch to the Republican party or at least become an Independent. Sure seems there are nothing but Socialists calling the shots in the Democratic party.
I remain overweight the home builders as well, although I did lighten up on TPH today. They report tomorrow morning but I don't like that the CEO sold about $5 million in stock in late August.
CCS, MHO, MTH, PHM, MDC and TMHC all report next week. Overall, I expect strong numbers and positive guidance as long as those supply chain issues don't get out of hand.
CCS Don't blame you for being nervous about this homebuilder. I am overweight the sector but also have been casting a wary eye with all the recent discussion about supply chain shortages causing delays in closings. It remains a sellers market as there are not enough homes being built to meet demand. But shortages are spreading to components like appliances, windows, roofing, drywall, fixtures, etc. Then there is a shortage of lots and building departments are getting really backed up on plan reviews and issuing permits.
The good news is that this will prevent homebuilders from building too much inventory, so we will likely not go through a boom bust cycle as often happens with the home builders. Profit margins are also expanding as the strong market has allowed builders price increases to hold and even continue.
Earnings reports come out for several of the builders next week. It will be interesting.
HPE Joined you guys on this one. It is priced more like a computer hardware company but it is about servers, storage, networking, support, and software. Most companies in those fields have rich PEs. This one has a low PE, low P/B, and even pays a 3.4% dividend.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452760-hewlett-packard-enterprise-hpe-stock-buy-upside
SGMA There is quite a history on that Wagz acquisition. Wagz had bought out a business that had filed for bankruptcy (the name of it escapes me now). That earlier business owed SGMA a few million dollars. SGMA worked out an agreement with Wagz on the money. It sounds to me like maybe SGMA doesn't want to admit they made a mistake and in doing so are getting themselves deeper and deeper into that pet business. The history is in the proxy.
My bad for dumping my shares in the low 7s though.
Good luck to those holding.
lol, That's a great way to describe the SGMA saga.
SGMA yep great quarter and big pop as expected. The company also released the proxy statement on its Wagz acquisition a couple of days ago. I didn't read through all 100+ pages but I read enough to sure make me wonder why they are doing this. They didn't even show the sales for Wagz products as they say its value is in their intellectual properties and technology (despite heavy competition). The new shares can also be sold by the Wagz insiders creating a potential drag on SGMAs stock price. No doubt SGMA could continue to pop higher on that big earnings report but the Wagz deal left me in a bad mood and I just took my profits in the 7s.
Ha, I remember paying $200 plus commissions of trades of only a few thousand $$ in the early 90s. Sure don't miss those good old days.
Are the democrats planning to tax trades to help pay for their huge human infrastructure bill?
The number of infilled jobs hit another record at 10.9 million last month. The number of unemployed people is only 8,4 million now. More jobs going begging than unemployed now. So there are plenty of wage cost pressures to fuel inflation, while there simply aren't enough workers to fill them. That's a good recipe for stagflation.
Maybe many are retiring early with all their stock market gains.
PHM Supply chain issues are worsening, for sure. They have no problem with demand, in fact they can't keep up with it and have limited sales in most of their communities. Other home builders are also weak today in sympathy to their report.
SWH the huge paint company also lowered Q3 guidance today, citing shortages in raw materials and some steep increases in their costs. Sounds more and more like stagflation is returning. Stagnant growth with inflation. When that happened in the late 70s, it brought some real rough times for the stock market as the Fed had to rapidly raise interest rates.
I am encountering more and more of those "supply chain disruptions" on visits to home improvement centers, grocery stores, car dealers, appliance stores, paint stores, roofing suppliers etc etc. It is no wonder that inflation is setting in with all the shortages. If this becomes a common theme for missed sales targets when corporate Q3 results are reported, it could well pull the rug out from under the big market gains we have been enjoying.
BGFV run continues. Sold some shares at 35. Once again, this demonstrates the dangers of shorting a stock with a high short interest. BGFV had 35% of shares shorted although I wonder what it is right now.
In my mind, BGFV was grossly undervalued at $23 after another strong earnings report. The huge short positions caused the sell-off and now it is being buoyed by the nervous shorts closing their positions (Thank you SA article).
I have a limit order in to sell some shares at $35.
NWHM Talked to an agent for NWHM today. Still have some shares in a taxable account as it becomes LTCG on 9/18. The agent said the tender deadline is sept 8. I asked what happens to shares that aren't tendered. He said they would be still be cashed out but it would take longer. Then he commented if at least 50% of the shares aren't tendered by 9/8 the deal is off unless extended. Said he wasn't sure what the current tally is but encouraged me to tender before the deadline. Hard to believe it wouldn't be higher than 50% since the offer at $9/share is WAY above the $5 they were trading at when it was announced.
BGFV An article came out in SA today promoting BGFV as a strong short squeeze candidate. 34% of shares are shorted. Never could figure out why the shorts went after this one with its strong fundamentals and big dividend.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452558-2021-year-of-short-squeeze-big-5-sporting-goods-could-be-next
BGFV Short interest is high. Apparently, they think that BGFV earnings will fall off a cliff. OTOH, if the shorts become motivated to throw in the towel, it could create a huge rally in the stock. The short interest equals about 7 days of average trading volume in the stock.
BGFV PE of 5, 4.1% dividend yield, no debt, $5 per share in cash, and the company says sales would be even higher without supply chain issues. I sure don't see much downside here and think fair value is around $30 minimum, imo.
VSH Joined hweb on this one. Surprised it is flat after a beat. Maybe the beat wasn't big enough?? Also like the fact they are in the fast growing 5G and EV markets according to a recent SA article.
SGMA Maybe someone should call investor relations and ask them:
Investor Relations: 800-700-9095
HOOD Down today on news that insiders are selling nearly 100 million shares over time. Whatever happened to mandatory lock up periods for IPOs?
BGFV recovering today, now up 8%. It looks like there was a big seller in early trading who used the good earning news to exit a large position.
I also read the CC transcript yesterday. Sounds like their biggest challenge is keeping their stores stocked due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Basically they could easily sell more product if they could get it.
Ha, I would have been real careful about what I said while someone was working inside my mouth with tools too.
The good news is that dental hygienist is up 5% so far today.
BGFV Surprised at not seeing the stock stronger AH. True, their guidance of 95c-1.15 is lower than the the just announced quarter but it is well above the 86c consensus too. Glass half full or half empty, I suppose. Tomorrow will be interesting but I see more upside than downside now.
BGFV Big beat, earning $1.63 vs 1.08 estimate. Also guided for Q3 above estimates and increased div again.. I added some AH:
Big 5 Sporting Goods (NASDAQ:BGFV) reported quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.08 by 50.93 percent. This is a 213.46 percent increase over earnings of $0.52 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $326.00 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $291.65 million by 11.78 percent. This is a 43.02 percent increase over sales of $227.94 million the same period last year.
BGFV this old board favorite reports after the close today. ANALYST CONCENSUS is $1.08 in earnings. Company itself had guided for a range of $1.05 to $1.25 for the quarter.
Personally, I think they will beat consensus and even think they will probably come in above the range of their own guidance. Tempted to add ahead of earnings but I'll probably just play it safer and hold onto the shares I still have. Anyone buying here?
Some say the ticker for Robinhood should have been ROB not HOOD.
whoswho, That article flies in the face of recent reports from home builders who say they cannot keep up with demand and have resorted to limiting sales by raising prices and rationing lots available for building. Some have also resorted to taking bids on new homes, the highest bidder gets the new house.
I was surprised to hear there is a 6.3 month supply of new homes on the market. But I also think that number is distorted by the fact that many builders list their homes for sale before they even start them. It will take 6 months or more to get those houses built. Many home buyers are unable or unwilling to wait that long. I'm sure the supply of completed new homes is much tighter.
Sales are not down because of reduced demand but because builders can't keep up with demand. I think the builders will enjoy good times and rising profits for at least a couple more years.
Home builders are doing well today, led by strong beats by CCS, MHO, and MTH. MTH is up 13%. Earnings were $4.36, a $1.04 beat. Revs also beat. MTH also plans to dramatically increase community count over the next 12 months giving them a runway to ramping up sales and profits. They are guiding for earnings of about $19 this year, way up from their $14 guidance 3 months ago. I own some MTH now but will be looking to add more on any sell-offs. There's also a good article about them in SA.
TMHC New orders were down not because of slowing demand but due to them strategically limiting sales to get more spec homes under construction.
Impressive that their average sales price is up 32% yoy. Strong quarters are coming, imo. I'm holding but like others in the group more.
Net sales orders were roughly flat at 3,422 homes but increased 31% in value to $2.0 billion, driven by a 32% increase in average sales price to $597,000. The Company strategically limited sales releases to align with production capacity and to maximize its margin opportunity by delaying the release of spec homes while managing the length of its record backlog of sold homes.
CCS had a nice beat in earnings and revs again while setting company records in sale deliveries and backlog. Guidance was also increased. This builder deserves more respect from Wall Street, now trading at a PE of under 5 based on expected full year earnings.
Second Quarter 2021 Highlights Compared to Second Quarter 2020
Net income increased 207% to a Company record $117.9 million or $3.47 per diluted share (a 65c beat over estimates)
Home sales revenues increased 34% to a Company record $1.0 billion $58 mil beat)
Home deliveries increased 12% to a second quarter record of 2,771 homes
Net new home contracts increased 17% to a second quarter record 3,120 homes
Homes in backlog improved to 4,446 homes with a value of $1.8 billion, both Company records
Pre-tax income improved 204% to a Company record $152.1 million
EBITDA increased 142% to a Company record $173.2 million
Net homebuilding debt to net capital improved to 23.0% from 37.5%
Quarter end total liquidity of $1.3 billion
Expanded $800 million line of credit with a $200 million accordion
Initiated quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share
Dale Francescon, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We continued our strong momentum in the second quarter and established a number of company records including home sales revenues in excess of $1 billion, $118 million of net income, pretax income of $152 million and $173 million in EBITDA. Year-to-date, we’ve delivered a record 5,568 homes, a 28% increase over last year, of which over 85% were spec builds. This meaningful focus on move-in-ready homes has enabled Century to capture additional margin expansion, culminating in a second quarter gross margin of 23.9%, the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential margin improvement and an increase of 700 basis points over last year. Our results demonstrate the continued high demand for our homes, positive industry dynamics and the strength, scale and operational excellence of our platform, further cementing us as one of the leading, entry-level national homebuilders.”
NMM A big earnings beat and investors hit the sell button. Stock is now down over 7%. I think keeping the puny 5c dividend is what is hurting the stock. This is an MLP and should be paying a decent dividend, yet it amounts to only a little more than 1% of earnings. Just another reason not to trust the CEO here.
SGMA Looks like Wade is right. According to D&B, WAGZ revs are only $1.5M. But then Zoom says they are $3 Mil, so who knows other than WAGZ and hopefully SGMA. SGMA will be reporting a blow out number with that loan forgiveness next Q so it will remain a hold for me at the current level. Missed the quick run earlier at 7.95 this morning though.
bbotcs, The huge premium over market price being paid to take NWHM private along with more strong earnings reports and guidance next week could well be the spark needed to get the home builders moving back up again. I think virtually all of them are undervalued now.