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I am not predicting day by day, but predicting the tendency. So, I am not posting everyday. But generally post at weekends. I almost don't post when I work, but today I got a day off.
You can see what is anti-BAA power.
If you see BAA price suddenly increased with few shares trade and then BAA price does not go up further with huge shares trade. that is not BAA power, but it is anti-BAA power.
We may need say goodbye to you soon than later
So, it is a good time for you to flip again now
If pog not heavily down, BAA will keep the BAA powers' way. The flippers will be chased out completely by their profit taking
BAA power allows your taking profit, but does not allow you to buy back for lower price than you sold!
It is BAA power at work. The BAA power wants to give traders a signal that they are chasing the high and preventing the sellers from buying back at a lower price than they sold.
BAA USA closed at 0.385 is also two-year highest close although some in-day trades were higher than $0.385.
July 10, 2014: open $0.42; High $0.43; close $0.36; volume 8.1 M
May 18, 2015: open $0.33; high $0.40; close $0.38; volume 7.1 M
Now: open $0.365; high $0.385; close $0.385; volume 1.8 M
Do you see the differences among these trades?
The first two were pump and dump obviously because they had huge volume, but closed not the day high. That means a lot of selloff at its high.
However, now it is totally different from pump and dump because 1.8 M trade is almost just daily average, but we closed the day high. It means people chasing the high and preventing the sellers from buying back at a lower price than they sold.
IMO Banro would be wasting their energy on promotion with the debt refinancing not showing any tangible progress as that would scare away potential new investors.
I believe they were already starting the promotion at their annual meeting. I found BAA trade pattern totally different after the annual meeting. Since then, BAA price was increasing step by step, which does not allow sellers to buy back. Generally, this means true big investors involved. Our true small BAA investors have no worry if BAA bull market is coming now, but the question is how high we will exit, $3 or $10?
too early, no material pumping is an empty pumping. Not only just waste time, but also damage management reputation.
Major institution manipulators, unlike market makers, accumulate shares in months of time frame. The fewer the volume daily the more they can get cheap shares.
Based on my experience, I am sure big players have been involved since June . Otherwise, the price could not stabilize like this, almost no response to gold price either up or down.
You should think two things
1, If BAA is bad and Congo is a concern, why BAA did not decrease hard when gold price decrease heavily and all of other miners in panic selling?
2, Now, we are going into H2, Do you think H2 will be better than H1? Plus the current POG, How BAA can not reach the new high which was hit a month ago. If no heavy manipulation, confusion and frustration, I believe no body would doubt the H2.
But, I know.
They are the old institutions who sold out when BAA operation had problems and now they want to buy back after BAA solved the problems.
The longer the manipulation goes the quicker BAA reaches its fair value.
Frustrated people will be completely removed before we chase the elephant.
No, even they would like to do so, the current data does not support a promotion and doing that now or before just wastes their time. In a few months, it will be the right time to do so with Q3 production in hand.
When you read the following emails, you will know BAA management not only focus on operation, but also care shareholders' investment.
As a loyal BAA long, I am happy with BAA management.
Dear Martin,
Long time did not write to you, how are you and how is BAA itself.
My wife asked me to check if anything is wrong with BAA because she concerns when gold and other miners continue up while BAA continues down.
Thanks
From Martin
Nothing is wrong with BAA. In fact, I refer you to our 2016 press releases – things are going very well. In a few months we will begin actively promoting the stock and I think you will see the price more accurately reflecting the value of the Company
Confused what?
Nobody would manipulate bad stocks down. Generally, manipulators only manipulate good stocks down then they could get more shares for cheap and manipulate bad stocks up then they could exit for profit.
Did you see any manipulation of BAA up recently when BAA is going into the second half of 2016? Everybody knew H2 of 2016 to be BAA game changer, so, how the big boys did not know that simple thing?
We will see BAA only up, but no down soon when all of the confused people are expelled out by manipulators.
If bad news will come, the price should be pushed much higher before the news out.
The same to me, I am happy when POG up even BAA down; Also I am unhappy when pog down even BAA up. For true longs, the pog price is BAA fundamental but BAA price is just traders' fundamental.
I mean you Texass, but after remove the ass makes people feel better
If people still doubt the refi for 2017 bonds, they must be crazy. BAA could get finance when Gold at $1045 and only one mine production. Now everything improved, But the bankers will start to reject BAA?
So, Tex has some memory problem
no, not before today. Please find any record?
BAA looks to explode immediately! hurry up for buying!
The following weeks will have strong BAA buying and we will see BAA above $0.50 before 15 July.
The reasons:
1, BAA was heavily oversold for almost 1 month after Q1 earnings based on its chart.
2, This oversold was due to BAA Q1 poor earning and poor 2016 first half year (H1) guidance. So, many investors either sold their holdings or not buying in H1.
3, Now, time is going into H2, due to BAA beautiful H2 guidance, many investors will either buy back their holdings or build new positions before BAA price significantly increases.
4, gold price will also help because of USA poor economy.
5, BAA Q2 production announcement is due in weeks and its production must be very good, otherwise, it would not pay the two quarters' delayed dividends.
Where Will the Gold Come From? COMEX Looks To Be Short 50 Tons of Gold for June Delivery!
the June gold contract is an active contract and the second biggest delivery month of the year following December. Friday night, the bankers first day delivery issuance to our longs to be settled on June 1 was huge: the number was 3,508 gold notices for 350,800 oz or 10.9 tonnes of gold. On day two, we had another huge number of gold notices filed at 2281 for 228100 oz or 7.09 tonnes of gold.On day 3, we had another whopper of 1969 notices for 196,900 oz or 6.12 tonnes.Thus in three days a total of 7758 notices have been filed for 775,800 oz or 24.13 tonnes. WHAT IS MORE FASCINATING WAS THE FRONT JUNE MONTH INCREASED IN NET OI BY 678 CONTRACTS TODAY. (67800 OZ) As I stated yesterday: “there is no question that the bankers have uttered these words to one another: “Houston, we have a problem in gold.”
I know your pain when you see all of miners and gold down, but BAA up. I also know the thing that will make you happiest is: when all of miners and gold up, but BAA down.
Sorry, it seems every thing is against you
it is institution buying, they know BAA cash flow building up heavily in April by gold production.
BAA is in its best finance condition now, it is time for us to chase the elephant!
Does any one analyze what does the recent dividend mean?
It tells us three things:
1, BAA free cash is building up heavily. We know that BAA management is very careful on free cash issue. They always choose postpone dividend if cash is constrained. They still postponed last September and this March dividends even after the Q1 earning release although they got the Chinese funding. However, they payed these two dividends now. It indicates BAA finance got a big improvement after the Q1 or after March 31.
2, The April gold production, income and free cash must be very strong which indicates we will have a beautiful Q2. Otherwise, the management will not pay all of the delayed dividends one time.
3, The management will not have any concern for the future BAA cash issue. That means BAA two mines are and will be at perfect producing condition from now on. Otherwise, they will not pay two delayed dividends one time.
In addition, the CEO buying BAA shares on open market, means he likes the April BAA production and finance status.
Now I have the funding, but your 60,000 at $0.326 is not there. Please show it again
Oh, too big, let's eat them away 100 shares after 100 shares.
Added another 120,000 shares today because each item from the 2016 Q1 report makes me excited.
Now let's digest the report line by line and then make your own decision.
I will compare 2016 Q1 with 2015 Q4, not 2015 Q1 because that comparison is really showing BAA to progress or retrogress.
1, Cash and cash equivalents: $7.5M versus $2.2M. This $5M more cash will make BAA have a much easy room to avoid expensive financing term.
2, Restricted cash: $17.5 versus $0. With the $17.5M, we don't need bother to worry the bond holders against BAA property for some time.
3, Inventories: $49M versus $28M. This means more raw materials in hands to keep production sustaining.
4, Current Assets: $100M versus $50M. Banks give loan mainly based on Current Assets.
5, Prepaid expenses and deposits: $10M versus $7M. It indicates more guaranteed to get rew materials and services.
6, Trade and other receivables: $16M versus $13M. Means more cash will flow in.
7, Trade and other payables: $67.7 versus $82.2M. Means less cash will flow out, or means less cash restrain to happen.
8, Bank loans: $8M versus $12M. Means less interest will be payed.
As to the -9 cents, it is almost not from the operation, but just due to an accounting issue, such as non-cash charge related to stock price, or charges for Namoya from previous quarters' financing expense.
You need know what is the stock price related non-cash charge or gain first, then you need read the file carefully to find where the -9 cents came from. And then you will decide if their job was done good or bad.
no, not impairment charge. Because impairment is a 100% negative, but the non-cash charges this time is a 100% positive.
Why?
The answer Is:
the non-cash charges this time is because our BAA share price increased. That means, if our BAA price were the same as Q4 of 2015 we would have no non-cash charges; but if our BAA price were lower than Q4 of 2015 we would have non-cash gain which would make the earning beautiful.
Now, do you like the non-cash charges or non-cash gains?
I need give more detailed explanation here for the non-cash charges or non-cash gains related to stock price.
Fore example, we have 50M warrants outstanding at the end of 2015 Q4 when BAA price was $0.15 and now BAA price is $0.35 at the end of Q1 of 2016, then we will have a $10M non-cash charges. Why? due to the warrant excise price is the same, so, no matter when the warrant is excised the company will get the same cash amount. However, the 50M BAA shares would have $10M more value now than the end of 2015 (50M x ($0.35-$0.15)).
OK, go to the opposite now, if BAA price were $0.05 at the end of Q1 of 2016 then we would have a $5M non-cash gain.
Now you know it, so you want a bigger non-cash charge next time if that is stock price related. Best we have $100M non-cash charge next time, that means BAA will be $2.35, a $2 increase.
Many people are not reading financial detail. Actually BAA did a perfect job and they controlled cost very well.
The lost, not just the $10M of non-cash charge, but all of lost are not real, because the other more than $10M lost came from Namoya financing borrow change and interest in previous quarters.
If excluding those charge, the current quarter has a net profit.
I will expect BAA to recover quickly after people understand the Q1 report
Yes, BAA power becomes strong and stronger, and the profit-taker power becomes weak and weaker. We will see $0.50 before any significant profit-taker power. That simple $0.50 price is extrapolation of the three peaks at $0.22, $0.32 and $0.38
Under $0.30 seems becoming history based on the past three days' BAA market action. in the past, when BAA was over $0.30 we saw big blocks of dump only, but now we are seeing big blocks of buying jumping over ask price.
we will see over $1 shortly when the depressed old campers finish diversification/profit-taking/changing boat along the BAA rising way.
good, you increase BAA price target much fast than it is. Now yours is $0.25, almost 3.5x of your original $0.07
I have all confidence of BAA.
We can see that: Although sentiment here is low which should induce selloff, we are still very stable, no crush at all. That means the majority of BAA holders have confidence. When the sentiment changes we will have sustainable rise