Digging Deeper
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but, but.........THEY DON'T WANT TO RAISE! They think the ponzi scheme can go on forever. It's taught in PHD 101 dontcha know!
jobs number came in decent.......I am starting to see a lot more negative articles out there about the markets though. we shall see...
it's funny, when futures are red yahoo leaves up yesterdays positive S&P, dow etc.
when their green they put the futures up on the page
The irony is the people who could do something about it DOES NOT CARE. I am speaking of the POTUS (or POS) as I refer to him. It's like a person living off their credit cards and telling everyone their rich. Only a stupid person, which I do not think he is, or someone determined to screw the lending agency (in this case the American people) would do such a thing.
He is no stupid, he only cares about his legacy, definitely not America. That can be left in flames and he'll blame the next administration.
I'm seeing huge chunks of Steve Madden shares being dumped. That f-ing bast*rd!
she told her friends all is well with their investments while her enemies (the public) were told to bend over and lubricate
True.....we'll just have to so how big the bulls balls are
agreed, I can't see all these bulls going long into earnings season......more like running it up while they can and building their short positions. I read this am that there are more short positions since like 2009
the fed in complicit in this market manipulation and inflating this bubble. that being said, the market also uses them for an excuse should they decide to bring it down/get out. As doveish as yellen was one would think the market would take that for what it is....bad news, but for the past few weeks they've used it as good news in the "no rate hike" theme. perhaps today they'll flip the coin and use it in the other direction. They sure as hell are running it up as hard as possible today leading it into the minutes. I like that. makes me think their luring in more bulls before the 2:15 selloff. one more hour and we'll know.
yeah, I guess his buddys have their short positions in already
I fell for it late last week :-/
wow, you're either very brave or very confident to hold from the 9's! I sold my 6's and 7's about a week ago.
REVIEW
The market started the week at SPX 2036. On Monday the market opened higher, hit SPX 2043, then pulled back into Tuesday morning to 2028. Then the market rallied to a new uptrend high by Wednesday at SPX 2072. After that, another pullback took the market to SPX 2044 by early Friday before the market rallied to a new uptrend high at SPX 2075. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.7%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9% , and the DJ World index gained 1.3%. Economic reports for the week were biased positive. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, the WLEI, pending homes sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, the Chicago PMI, and ISM manufacturing. On the downtick: the ADP index, monthly payrolls, GDPN, construction spending, plus weekly jobless claims and the unemployment rate rose. Next week's reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and ISM services.
LONG TERM: bear market
During the 2009-2015 bull market we had often tracked world index trends as a leading indicator for potential uptrend reversals in the US. This worked out quite well until the market ran into a choppy 2015. This week we took a look at the 20 foreign markets we track and found that all have been in uptrends, along with the US, throughout the month of March. In this last week of March only 35% of these indices made new uptrend highs, 30% have been trading sideways, and 35% have already been heading lower. Normally several of these foreign indices will start confirming downtrends before the US rolls over and confirms a downtrend too. And that is what is occurring. Twenty-five percent of the world's markets are now in confirmed downtrends.
The long term count remains unchanged. Five Primary waves up from the 2009 low into the December 2015 high to complete the Cycle wave [1] bull market. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary waves III, IV and V completed in 2015. From the December high we are counting a Major wave A down, and now a Major wave B uptrend underway. When this uptrend concludes the next downtrend should take the market to new bear market lows.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
The Major wave B uptrend, that began in mid-February, continues to rise. We had been expecting a three Intermediate wave uptrend topping between SPX 1950 and 2000. After labeling Intermediate waves A and B at SPX 1947 and SPX 1891, Intermediate wave C was underway. It, however, has been stronger than expected as it continues to subdivide higher. Last week it broke through the 2043 pivot, pulled back to the 2019 pivot, and started to rise at week's end. This week it reached the 2070 pivot, pulled back to the 2043 pivot, and ended the week within the 2070 pivot range. Next overhead resistance is the 2085 pivot.
Despite this seemingly relentless advance we continue to label this uptrend as Major wave B of an ongoing bear market. Nonetheless, we continue to receive questions regarding Primary waves IV and V. Some further explanation is probably needed. Bull markets unfold in quantified long term uptrends. When a long term downtrend is confirmed, that uptrend has ended and all internal counts within that long term uptrend have completed. In other words, Primary waves one through five ended within the 2009-2015 bull market. Some in our group have noted that there are indices, other than the main four indices (SPX/DOW/NAZ/NAZ), that are out of sync with the general wave pattern configuration. This is true, and it may be the one of the reasons for the strength of this B wave. In the meantime, this advance remains in an uptrend with resistance at the 2085 and 2135 pivots, and support at the 2070 and 2043 pivots.
SHORT TERM
With Friday's new uptrend high this uptrend has stretched into its second month. Quite a rally from the SPX 1812/1810 double bottom in January/February. And longer than the October rally after its SPX 1867/1872 double bottom in August/September. As noted previously we continue to count this uptrend as three Intermediate waves: A 1947, B 1891, C still underway. Currently Int. C is 1.34 times Int. A. It will reach 1.5 times A at SPX 2097, and 1.618 times A at SPX 2113. Both levels are quite close to the all time high at SPX 2135.
Technically the daily RSI/MACD continue to display a negative divergence. And there is some previous resistance between the rally highs, SPX 2077 and 2082, during the last downtrend. These are both nearly within the 2085 pivot. It has been difficult to call a top in this uptrend as it continues to extend. Currently the market will need to decline to the 2019 pivot to get some downside momentum underway. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2104 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mixed for a net loss of 0.5%.
European markets were mostly lower and lost 0.5% on the week.
The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 1.4%.
The DJ World index is still in an uptrend and gained 1.3% on the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds appear to be uptrending and gained 0.8% on the week.
Crude appears to be downtrending and lost 7.1% on the week.
Gold appears to be downtrending too but gained 0.5% on the week.
The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.6% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Monday: Factory orders at 10am. Tuesday: the Trade deficit and ISM services. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: Wholesale inventories. Best to your weekend and week!
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
from here:
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/author/oewcaldaro/
xanax and a 6 pack tonight should hold me over
rather see SPX double top at 2070 and pullback
at least i made like 20k on one trade, but then entered TVIX on a gut feeling FML
down 5 k now on TVIX.
what'd you expect, I'm in FL and get the stuff straight off the boat!
grabbed an 8 ball on lunch, gonna sprinkle that on TVIX and see if she perks up!
sprinkling fairy dust on TVIX now for lift off. may have to use the whole bag.
RFLMAO
70% of stats are made up.
It's cool. I'll go ahead and tell you you're wrong. The spx can't break the 2065 resistance. market turning in 3, 2, 1
NOW!
I don't think so my furry feathered friend. Know why?
The bulls are blowing their load before lunch time today. The bears will win by EOD with the SPX in the red.
REM- It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine........
seem a LOT of 4.3699 prints and the like which is obviously institutions
Why in my gut do I feel like this is them sucking in the last of the bulls before they dump come Monday.
what is promising is that that both the VXX and TVIX have not made new lows today. perhaps a bottom is forming....but these bulls keep sucking in the bears. this morning I decided to stop thing I know that this market is gonna crash. it made me a lot earlier this year, but I gave most of it back. This am I looked through the leveraged etf's on my watch list for AH buys. even if it's only 10 million, that guy is probably better than me. I won't jinx myself and say what i bought, but looking VERY good right now and up a good amount with room to run. thinking back thats when I bought into TVIX and killed it. it's when I bought, but got scared and sold UGAZ...and it ran like crazy. so thats my approach now. scan my list in the am, but TVIX is still high on my radar, just waiting for it.
LOL aren't you gonna say thanks. every time I open my big mouth the market gives me a good ole slap
there's no support here for the VXX down to like 15.50 and the Tvix has no support either short of looking at intraday charts.
I'm waiting for confirmation before I buy in or until it gets to the low 3's and a proper valuation to the VXX when it hit support in the 15.50's
GLTA
SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +84
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 200K v 214K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2066 and continued to rise. The market had closed at SPX 2055 yesterday. Around 11am the SPX hit 2072, was extremely overbought, and started to pullback. The pullback lasted until 1:30 when the SPX hit 2062. Then after a bounce to SPX 2069 by 3:30, the market pulled back to close at 2064.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance and the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI at 9:45.
The market gapped up at the open adding to yesterday afternoon’s Yellen speech rally. It opened within the 2070 pivot range, traded around the range until 1pm. Dipped to SPX 2060, and then moved higher again in the afternoon. With today’s activity the market has posted a new uptrend high at SPX 2072. This clearly eliminated the potential uptrend high at SPX 2057, and eliminated the rising channel as well. Hard to even guesstimate where this uptrend is going to end at this point. Maybe Friday will give us the answer. Short term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum backed off from extremely overbought this morning. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
just love this guys daily summary and how he puts it in context of the market cycles/trends
I lost my ass the last few weeks as well. :-/
there's no magic man dude. 210 is simply heavy resistance. the market makers don't have some secret plan. their like players at the black jack table and they know that when the house has the upper hand and the cards are going against you walk away. they have the advantage of knowing when those cards will go against them, at least from an odds standpoint.
did not 4.58 teach you a lesson about secret signals?
even if it hit's 210 spy, thats not the end all to end all to go all in.
just sayin man, those secret signals are gonna take your lunch money
I needed that LOL!
the vxx keeps moving up on the 15 min chart, but the volume is going down...like someone else said. might be looking to suck in some bears
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
this site seems to have some pretty good daily insight and they send you an email summary daily. Here's yesterdays:
SHORT TERM: Yellen feeds the bulls, DOW +98
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.7%. The market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2037 close, ticked down to 2028, and then started to rise ahead a FED chair Yellen’s NYC speech. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 96.2 v 92.2. Just as Yellen’s speech was released the market spiked up: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160329a.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX neared its uptrend high at 2057, then pulled back to end the day at 2055.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15.
The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 2028, then rallied nearly back to its uptrend high after FED chair Yellen gave her dovish speech. Is the FED just talking the talk, or planning to try and do away with bear markets and recessions too? Historically trying to avoid normal economic cycles has always ended in asset bubbles. With today’s rally we can now count three waves up from Thursday’s SPX 2022 low: 2043-2028-2056. Should the market exceed SPX 2057 the uptrend is extending higher. Short term support is now at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market
follow the VXX. look there for support and resistance as well
I think you're right, hell, even after selling it all yesterday I am looking at it going....hmmmmmm re-entry now????
today could def be worse, actually starting to look promising. I'm not biting this time though until I see more confirmation. Why would they not run it up more tomorrow and end the quarter in the green?
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/03/30/more-rough-days-ahead-for-volatility-products/?mod=yahoo_hs
It is crashing, haven't you been watching?
4.58 just fell. so much for that theory.
when people post about big buys, like 5, 10 or 50 million at a set price you'll know. just look at afterhour on your charts if you have that, but i'll post when/if i see it......because unlike some say, there usually is not much action after hours on this. not volume wise anyway
yeah, I'm thinking close to 2100 myself. actually a combo of that or when VXX hits secondary support and I see major AH buying in the dark pools.
any of those two and I'm in.
Or if jim cramer says sell it. hahahahahaha