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Great post.
Helps ease my mind a touch given I've been overly worried that a continuation at 80% with <20% events left = likely unsuccessful trial.
Thank you.
CR
Rx #s for 6/30
Vascepa:
TRx: 22,889
NRx: 9,125
Lovaza
TRx: 1,452
NRx: 470
Cheers!
Cam
Any Nashville, asheville, charlotte, Atlanta, Richmond shareholders? I'm Raleigh based but travel a lot and would be good to sync up and grab a drink!
Cam
Agree on all accounts! I'm not concerned.
I'm still here. Never left. I lurk, learn and leave - good to see the board back to quality activity again!
A lot of speculation on the sale of these shares when no one knows Kennedy's personal financial situation.
He's got more than enough shares left to be a multi millionaire several times over. But he could be an awful steward of his own capital and savings - debts to pay or an expensive lifestyle - making the sale a necessity, not a diversification or hedging play.
I see it as fairly common behavior in the bio world. Bird in hand. Chips in your pocket with plenty riding should the study be the blowout we expect.
Perhaps they had sold these contracts against their shares (covered calls)... and decided to by the contracts back so that shares aren't called.
Well put G.
Kiwi,
In your opinion does this reduce risk for the converter or increase risk?
If reduce, then you would think intentions are to liquidate the holdings. Take to equity market and collect premium on shares? The rationale being they see upside limited... For some reason and that they may never collect on their princ unless they make this move... Right?
Or does it increase risk but they chose to do this because they want to participate immediately in the upside of potential interim results.
I've had two bourbons and heading to pre wedding festivities but I do hope you respond this evening. Your objective, anti herd, and often times polemicist opinion is appreciated bc you deliver it so well. And it makes me, personally, think deeper and more critically of the situation.
Had the same thought. You're not alone. Drive the price higher - cash raise - more shares - convert debt - everyone is happy (maybe minus retail if this was sheer purpose of price increase)
If we get our beloved stop due to incredible numbers in next 60 days then my fretting is all for naught.
At first glance your thoughts seem cogent and in line with my own. Not confirmation bias, I swear!
Thanks for quick math. Traveling. Distracted. And trying my best to decipher the info.
Appreciate it!!
Cam
Will the conversion require a 13G filing? Which then requires updates to sales activity?
I want to view this as a positive. Only negative I can see is the potential that conversion allows for either: share dump, systematic sale of shares, etc etc. basically something the fixed income market didn't provide or wouldn't provide based on risk app for company.
Lol. Outstanding reply.
Just out of curiosity: how many people think that there are individuals that post under multiple aliases on this board?
I am seeing this message in a lot of places: why didn't management wait until the price is higher if the interim result is supposedly at least one month away?
IMO they are managing risk. Could the price be higher in one month? Potentially. Or it could be like Adcom and selloff into the event. The stock is trading at a multiyear high and they acted prudently. I think something else to note is that they are now operating from a position of strength rather than a position of need.
I know that we would all be kicking ourselves if for some reason or another the stock price is lower in the next 20 days and the result came in that they needed to wait until the second look and THEN they made the raise.
It's done now and it's behind us and I am very much looking forward to the next 30 to 60 days and then the next 6-8 months.
Sorry if this is jumbled but I am dictating it in my car
My question is: do we know that the data is accurate?
How valid is this short information as it compares to short data that is released by Nasdaq?
I think it is standard to consider the GIA. Talk the talk like you don't need the help of BP if R-IT is a success... would likely up the premium BP has to pay in order to acquire the company.
Think of it: "We will do it our way unless you pay us ___insert huge number____ to let you do it"
That said - if it is the blockbuster we all hope... I'm up for holding for 3-4 more years if that yields $50/share via GIA.
I'm also more than happy to take money off the table at $7, $12, 15, $20 $30!!! :)
Great post JL.
If I may point something out regarding the company's finances...
In my opinion, they are far more likely to receive funding after an announcement of continuation than before. I do not see this as a "clue." Given the history of our little Amarin and the nefarious shenanigans surrounding SPA, NCE, Anchor, etc, we are in a "you show me yours and I'll show you mine" relationship with our backers. I
There is no point to lend/raise funds beforehand. If the trial somehow shows little benefit, we will be headed to the pink sheets and likely out of business before too long - no need for funding.
I'm hopeful of a stop. Expecting a continuation. Our financiers likely feel the same and are prepared to act accordingly. They won't throw good money after bad when the decision is right around the corner.
Cam
For all this talk about the awarding of options and shares etc. it seems like no one cares to remark that in order for them to realize the benefit of these "gifts", they actually have to sell them. So far that is not happening. And portions of the options Have to be paid for!
This is all just part of doing business. They are small time bio and under the most focused of microscopic lenses. They are not going to do anything criminal at this stage in the game... Am I happy about the size of the package? Not really (that's what she said)...
But if this is all a success in the end, as many of us are hoping for and betting on, then it is justifiable.
100% agree!!!
Best response possible
JT made $2.8mm in 2014. Wow. Didn't realize it was that much.
Look forward to seeing update of last year.
500k salary
243k bonus
1.04mm rest. stock
988k "other compensation"
Heck Ketchum made $1.2mm!
It will all be deserved should this pan out as the science portends
DDD is a very poor example of a recovery. Pull up a 5 year chart.
Let's be clear - you don't know a lot about markets either.
Regarding interim - I think many HOPE for a stop but expect to hold for completion of study. Big difference.
Steering Committee
AVII77...
I'm pretty sure you should host your own conference call. Not even kidding. Not even a little.
Sign me up.
Hope that you reveal your background at some point.
It is really unfortunate when someone (FlyF) tries to provide technical insight on a stock and is badgered because of his/her opinion. It is almost laughable that so many find the time to pick apart this technical analysis, discredit it, and thus discredit the poster when many have been requesting information all along! Many readers here are looking for answers... when someone walks in making assertions that the future may not be so bleak and attempts to give a reason (other than the fundamental promises that have eventually been let downs (lawsuits, partners, etc)), I think we should perhaps be a bit more grateful and a little less derogatory when predictions don't go as planned...
By the way, the main wedge prediction is still in play.
Either view the effort for what it is - an attempt to read the tea leaves...
Or ignore it!
Frankly, the analysis and guesstimates make sense. The timeline makes sense, to a degree. Fly, I for one appreciate the effort and hope that any disparaging remarks or challenges to your predictions do not prevent you from continuing to contribute. There are useful bits here and they dovetail nicely with the underlying fundamental event line.
We have many windmill chasers posting under various identities. What's one more!
One more thing... IF SOMEONE POSTS A TECHNICAL REASON TO BE SHORT... what would everyone's response be? We'd eat them alive more than likely... And that's because we all want the long picture to workout...
How we see it: Short? Wrong. Long? Right. Long and contributing predictions? You better be right or you're wrong and don't deserve to be long! Lol
God are we a fickle bunch or what!?
My system id'd them as such. I believe they are "matched" trades like you said.
Today's Volume:
For anyone curious about the two trades that went through at 1.47 (2 blocks of 383K)... they were listed as Qualified Contingent Trades.
Here's some info:
(i) A "qualified contingent trade" is a transaction consisting of two or more component orders, executed as agent or principal, where:
(1) at least one component is an NMS stock, as defined in Rule 600 of Regulation NMS under the Exchange Act;
(2) all components are effected with a product or price contingency that either has been agreed to by all the respective counterparties or arranged for by a broker-dealer as principal or agent;
(3) the execution of one component is contingent upon the execution of all other components at or near the same time;
(4) the specific relationship between the component orders (e.g., the spread between the prices of the component orders) is determined by the time the contingent order is placed;
(5) the component orders bear a derivative relationship to one another, represent different classes of shares of the same issuer, or involve the securities of participants in mergers or with intentions to merge that have been announced or cancelled; and
(6) the transaction is fully hedged (without regard to any prior existing position) as a result of other components of the contingent trade.
Actuary - errr, I mean, actually - we don't know if Mog is short or long - but he is annoying as duck - I mean luck.
FFS, you've added some beautiful color to the AMRN story with your technical analysis. Now we just need this wedge to break to the upside and put us in a place where everyone feels comfortable!
To add an additional opinion to the thoughts provided by Danbury & others on the board regarding "influencing factors in stock price"...
Since July 2015, crowded Hedge Fund trades have massively underperformed the S&P 500…
Put into context… I’m talking worse than 2008… Crowded HF down around 40-50% since July.
Why did this happen? Well…
• Growth Selloff: Hedge funds tend to have a long bias towards growth. Since August 2015 when fears of slower growth from China intensified, growth has underperformed
• Healthcare & Energy: The selloff in healthcare driven by negative rhetoric surrounding drug price increases and the selloff in energy driven by the sharp decline in oil prices seemed to create large fundamental dislocations. Many hedge funds increased their allocations to those sectors hoping that markets would refocus on fundamentals and they were too early to the party as stocks in those sectors continued to decline in tandem with one another.
• Hedge Fund Crowding: Hedge fund crowding increased allowing for more contagion across the industry. Several large hedge funds that had under-performed either decided to de-risk or were faced with large redemptions and were required to raise cash. This led to forced selling across trades that were widely held and triggered a snowball effect.
So breaking it down…
A number of large, and in some cases highly levered, individual hedge funds have been hit with a combination of losses and redemptions over the last 9-12 months – resulting in performance numbers akin to and sometimes worse than 2008. These individual hedge funds have been selling in order to“de-lever” and meet redemption requests… In the hedge fund – especially leveraged HF – this selling pressure is like dominoes for individual securities as liquidations drive selling = prices go down = drive more selling = performance sucks = more liquidations = more selling....
Many hedge funds have been investing in healthcare & biotech – our little AMRN is a name across several hedge funds... but I am not naming it as a security that is so widely held and a victim of these distributions… In fact, it is a victim, but of the sector, its market cap, and the fact that it is truly an EVENT DRIVEN NAME… The selling pressures of the last week have been SECTOR RELATED… and IMO tied to the aforementioned crowed HF trades… a lot of technical damage has been done, but the fundamental drivers will recover this stock… timeline to be determine (2016-18)
We are all aware of the company’s issues. The sector issues. The regulatory issues… etc etc etc.
Just wanted to shed some light on the hedge fund space and how forced redemptions of leveraged HFs coupled with these other issues have influenced the biotech space.
Risk On. Risk Off. Risk On. Risk Off.
After all, weren’t we heading into a recession just 3-4 weeks ago?
Cam
Raf, what are you... The post patrol? Last time I checked you've learned everything about this stock via this board and Murphy has been here longer than you... Why don't you cut him some slack? I remember your first posts - when your knowledge was far less than today and now you walk around like the board's peacock... Some compassion may be the kind of karma we need to get this ship turned around. Sitting here, reiterating what he already knows firsthand, is nothing short of being a total ass. It's ruined a lot of people. The blame is on them. He's entitled to say what he wants. Ignore him if you must.
Joe,
I'm sure it has been posted, but in case you haven't seen the commentary from Vasc. Sol. CEO:
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/02/26/814797/0/en/Vascular-Solutions-and-Howard-Root-Found-Not-Guilty-on-All-Charges-in-Short-Kit-Litigation.html
“We are appalled by the malicious behavior and lack of substantive oversight of the government officials who pursued this matter – in particular Assistant U.S. Attorneys Bud Paulissen and Christina Playton of the Western District of Texas, Consumer Protection Branch Trial Attorneys Timothy Finley and Charles Biro, and FDA Special Agent George Scavdis. There simply is no excuse for abusive and dishonest conduct in any U.S. governmental agency, much less in the Department of Justice and our law enforcement agencies.”
“We greatly appreciate the jury’s complete rejection of the government’s false allegations. But to get to this result, we were subjected to five years of attacks which forced us to hire 10 separate law firms at a cost of over $25 million to defend against a criminal prosecution that clearly was never warranted by the facts. This case centered on just one version of just one of our more than 100 medical devices – a version that was FDA-cleared, made up only 0.1% of our sales, and, by the government’s own admission, never harmed a single patient. To say that this prosecution was wrong-headed and disproportionate would be the understatement of the year.”
“While this matter is now over for Vascular Solutions and me, an upcoming criminal trial remains scheduled for one of the company’s sales representatives on obstruction of justice charges because he refused to change his grand jury testimony to match what these prosecutors wanted to hear. It should now be obvious that our sales rep’s indictment was merely a malicious retribution by misguided prosecutors, an action that needs to be corrected immediately. And after his indictment is dismissed, if the U.S. Attorney in San Antonio still wants to prosecute someone for obstruction of justice in this case, in my opinion he wouldn’t even have to leave his own office to find the most suitable person to indict.”
BB, my thought has always been they have an "understanding" with Baker Bros - they raised just enough last year to potentially the turn corner especially if interim hits... Do they need a raise in the near future? Potentially, but not a guarantee depending on 1A impact on Rx over course of year.
I assume the conversation (last year) went like this "here's some now... Let's see where it goes... And if you need more later we can address it at that time..."
Baker is in an enviable position with their convertible debt... Lien position with full participation if/when R-IT hits big.
I believe further dilution will not be immediately impactful to current share positions as they will likely do another convertible round.
Just an opinion
Cam
Let's not forget who was involved in Eddingpharm deal:
http://sofinnova.com/team.php?nav0=firm
Healy and Lars
Welp. That answers that
Is it possible for Stonepine to still retain shares but lose voting interest because they sold enough to no longer be forced to file a 13G?
Agree that it is disturbing for the major players to have sold. Biotech has gotten crushed. And perhaps they have gotten the nod that the conference calls are literal... "Highly unlikely that there will be a stop"...
Either way - scripts can be somewhat of a salvation if they continue to grow.
Eventually we all have to make decisions. Continue to hope it will change? Or Believe it has changed... But what direction will it take?
Oh gosh no! I'm just kidding. It's good to have theories. It's good to have those theories pressure tested. That's how the real answers come to light.
I don't post often and I certainly don't try to repost what others have already said. But I do try to be thoughtful and as factual as possible
Haha no I won't block you
CJR
Sigh... I should just quit trying to add something to talk about
(Put head in hands)