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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11879167/Tsipras-Syriza-win-Greek-elections-live-reaction.html
Round 1 of drama about to start. Tispris just fired back on twitter. Anyone with twitter, two good sources are , Greek analyst, Yannis koutsomitis
Issuing new dept to who? Greece govt isn't in charge no more. It's German Creditors. Who will buy dept if they could. Past dept and preferred non cumulative dept shares moody rating c(hyp) as low as u can go. Means you have no shot off getting paid.
Well we know it's 600mill min. But read about phantom bonds. They've been writing phantom bonds for years that will count in the recaptil that has not gone against any figures to date. Bonds where written to Greece government, they passed a law two years ago allowing this. Under new reform this is now illegal. I highly doubt in the article I posted last week of all scenarios by leaked numbers, it didn't included all the phantom bonds that is going to be needed to be addressed. That 600mill is gonna go up. Preferred where I'm short , might be the side 2 be long right now short term. Not long term cause they could be forced to be in the bail in. But NBG could rebuy all preferred, like they did in 2010 or 2011. Buy them back , at below book value , the difference will be profit to offset phantom bond loss. They then reissue a new preferred, and make all that money , thus causing less diluted pps cause less will be needed from bailout. That's there angle, I have that gut feeling.q
Think we have a very long time to go to be happy. They way he won and the fact his new government will be formed with independent Greeks, who many still want to negotiate some softer stips. Nothing major,but any delay that pushes tbis finalized deal near timeline deadline of New Years Eve will be very bad for pps. Don't forget Jan 1st EU new banking reform becomes law. Bail in will be in play then. Still see craziness ahead. Think this was worst outcome. New Democracy got less seats then was planned, thous that's the reason the sell-off in Greece.
Been doing some research on preferred was wondering if anyone has been here for a couple years. I found where they have before and can do by Greek law is to buy back all preferred shares and if it's below book value, anything that is paid over book value goes as profits on the books. Has happened before. Also I believe these preferred shares where supposed to be redeemed within 5 years. But in 2014 was given a 5 year delay in redemption. Because the preferred is non-cumulative, all missed dividends are not owed like cumulative preferred shares. Trying to figure why the preferred is running when they are the biggest threat as a junior bondholders off being forced in a bail in. Also moodys has preferred shares, at a C(hybd) rating lowered from Ca(hybd) on Sept 5th. That's just about as low as you can go. So I'm thinking are they gonna buy back all these preferred at a lower then book value and reduced redemption to show a profit on books to cover up the phantom bonds they've written for years?? Anyone who has been here for years and knows about this I would love to hear it. I've been shorting preferred hands over fist at 7+ anything I can get a hold off. But that one factor of buying all preferred back now has me sketchy.
Also www.teletrader.com has great free apps and software for PC that has a ton of free realtime quotes from Athens.Also a ton of free tools. Incredible free stuff.
Can't ever see it doing that. Don't think this will move much until the stress test is done, just some of the 70+ reform laws needed still to be introduced. That will show the market and the ecb and imf that tis can be trusted to keep his word. Even a bigger first before that is he must form the new government and hear what the partner might say. Should be independent greeks I believe? Don't want them saying anything stupid. Now with all that being said, even after that it absolutely can't move until anyone sees the final recaptil of the banks outline. This will get diluted, so I don't know why it would rise until then? Or why you would want it? Would only cause a possible higher diluted rate of shares to the common. Lower pps the better chance of less diluted cap. Also if this hits any delays for anything, and can't be finalized by Dec 31st, then it could really tumple
The new EU banking bailout laws don't go into affect until January 1st 2016. That would cause bail in to come into play since you can't raise taxes to help banks. No matter what according to the article I posted last week, at least 600 million needed causing 1/3 diluted shares. So this should see a 33% lose when this happens. Expect that, then another share restructure on top of that to get over a dollar. Maybe 10 to 1 split. 71pps, 1/3 gets you to 47pps, 10 to 1, or 5 to 1 gets you 2.35 or 4.7 pps to stay listed.
EU's Moscovici statement today seemed to but a end of any dept haircut.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/eus-moscovici-says-greek-haircut-is-not-on-the-table-20150917
To late, dropped 10% as I wrote it. Still short is good till 5.00
For those with the stomach to short with a low float. Preferred could be best short play by numbers to date. RSI highest in years. Overbought huge. 70k volume today , 50k in shorts . Bear Trap. Level 2 ask is insane to bids. Shorted at 6.4 and tripled up at 7.15 , plus common moving ....money will swing there
Appears the Options expiring on Friday are holding this back. To much at stake for the 40% shorts and putts on Friday $2 expirations. Clearly there is a brick wall on level 2 holding this back till then. Monday expect this to run slow and steady till Oct 7th, or if news of notes offer before then. Appears that the 2 or three owners of these dept holders will accept thou. They had to have a short position, assuming they cover and accept tender.
Preferred is running cause of this article.
http://m.euro2day.gr/1361382/article.aspx
Basically looks like leaked info of the current state of all Greek Banks and what funding will be needed under each of the 3 scenarios under the agreement. NBG appears to need 600 million. Appears senior dept holders are gonna be not forced into a ball in, along with Alpha. The other two are in deep shit. 600 million to common would be 1/3 dilution thou....kind of scary. I'm the Jo who sold preferred before finding this article. Sold at 4.50! Lol, after entry at 3.73. Saw NBG down big in Athens on Friday and sold early figuring I was stealing and reentering on dip. Lol. What a F idiot I am. Cost myself 10dimes. Had 45hun shares. But the run up has been crazy, RSI is highest in years. So I shorted into closing today. I want more pain tmrw. Lol
Epilepsy drug is in pre-clenical stage, hasn't even applied for phase 1, here's the link from there own website with pipeline and stages.
http://www.anavex.com/pipeline/
Anavex Plus is for Alzheimer's, Anavex 2-73 was submitted under the treatment of Alzheimer's. From what I understand, in testing even if a candidate has shown progress towards anything other then what it was submitted for, it cant be approved for that. But once approved, Anavex 2-73 can be prescribed by a Dr. for reasons it wasn't made for. Which happens to a ton of medication. Preclinical is close to a 7-10 year time frame of approval. Also as hard as it is to discover anykind of new medication, preclinical I believe is like a 1% chance of making it through. Those numbers are deceiving thou cause there's a ton of preclinical stuff that's nonsense bs.
Also the Epilepsy drug has been going since 2008. Started as A-73 ans A-144 combination i believe if i recall right. Have no idea what happened to A-144. So 7 years and still hasn't gotten that far. Only been tested on animals, not one human test go date that I can find of.
Isn't epilepsy yet to participate in any trial yet? That could be 5 years away minimum. I really doubt any drug for epilepsy will work based on my own knowledge and experience. Any epilepsy treatment that uses anykind of benzo in the compound will never work. Would love to see the compound of the drug. I really hope it doesn't. If I was developing a treatment, I would study what TBC's from marijuana do to help it Then whatever it does do, try and replicate it the same trigger points uses other compounds. Cause all current and most trial treatments for it use some form of benzo. Thus making the child addicted to benzo. Which in itself is awful. I really believe that until marijuana is regulated federally, there will be no positive gains in that field. What's amazing, is the government owns the rights to marijuana compounds if its ever regulated as a possible treatment to diseases. Not talking about legalizing it for medical purposes itself, or recreational. If it was declassified for medical research only, and still illegal in itself for the use of medicinal use or anything else. It needs to be declassified so medical research can be done on the TBC compound, so that researchers can than take that study , and combine it with current studys to form a overall drug that is a mixture of TBC and unknown compounds to form a treatment. That will be the formula one day to treat epilepsy. I've heard that from numerous medical experts that currently treat the disease. The only place in the US its legal to grow under federal law is at the University of Alabama or Mississippi I believe. They have a small garden, which up until a year ago never even grew a actual plant. But starting this year, for some unknown reason they grew a whole garden full of 4 crops. Now who is getting that grow for research is the million dollar question. That is non public information. But thats not here or there really. As long as the Alzheimer's candidate gets approved, and is able to even keep half the success rate of it. That's all we need. That's a freaking powerball ticket winner. Forget the rest. This will either live or die with that. Success will lead to billions, failure will most likely end the company and all there other candidates will end up at other companies. Can't see them surviving a failure on its candidacy. The question is, when will they participate in another health convention?? My theory the more quiet it is, the more positive things are going. Cause if I was missling and had knowledge it wasn't producing the same success I would be at every convention preaching past results, to gain more investors, so when the news hits of regression in progress in treatment, as a company you would be more stable financially then you are now. So I'm fine with quiet. But that's my mind thinking on that. I'm sure others have there own thoughts.
Bullish on what?? They have no science behind them. There drug candidate was awful. The science behind it can't work. Only science that will work is attacking the buildup of plaque on the brain. This company is a joke. Formed by a hedge fund manager who has no science knowledge.
I don't know haven't been paying attention, I would imagine since the volume has been low, and no news recent, that's when the shorts pounce. But I agree. I'm just a bit confused why they're not at that convention in Newark NJ
Anything happen new here the last two weeks? Haven't been able to pay attention as much, still holding from .74. Thought for sure they would be at the Alzheimer's convention in Oct in Newark NJ. But haven't read much news about it. Also a FYI, a lot of chatter in Tim Sykes chat room about them possibly shorting this on weekness temporary. Wouldn't get alarmed on any inter-day big swings. Since him and his students usually close the position they open the same day. Wasn't Sykes himself, but some top traders on there where stating a lack of volume and weakness showing. But I'm still long until I read bad news, hopefully it won't happen. Plus its also a moral investment, I lost one of my grandparents on my Dad's side and currently on my mom's side both have Alzheimer's. So I can't give in, even if most my money on this goes wasted. At least it went to a company looking to solve one of the top 5 diseases of mankind that's untreatable.
Also the looming election could provide a lot of volatile action. Most don't understand what exactly the election results might do to NBG.
I would say the commons might run well this week based on past trends I've noticed the last month. Seems that the preferred and Commons never run together either way. But seem to follow each others movement once one gets done a run. Can look at the Monday two weeks ago that was crazy. Commons went, from .72 I think to as low as .58 and finished around .65. That same day the preferred was up for the first hour into trading.whether it was shorts covering to move money into blue chip stocks at low discounts, idk... But the following days after that, the Commons ran well for two days where preferred stayed still. Then last week , NBG.R in Athens had 5 good days. Common stayed still, but look at preferred. TUESDAY +15%, WED & THURS + 2%, Friday +20%. Thursday preferred had 5 blocks of 40k shares get bought. Which is never retail cause with pref its a low float, you would be lucky to get a 10k block. Thursday also was all action from Nasdaq or GTC mm. Friday first hour and a half in Commons there was only 8200 total in volume. Ended up selling my whole postion in preferred, to invest in VVUS. What a stupid decesion that was. Lol. Knowing that most shorts cover late Friday, knowing that news over weekend was possible so shorts where gonna cover. The action on preferred, was all buys after 1130am. But no more then 1k at a time. Then last hour and a half had two 5k shorts trying to cover knocking each over in the bid. Makes no sense doing that, they should know that it takes up to a hour at times for a trade to hit the ask or bid side. Wanted to throw up at 4pm. Sold all 53hun shares I had. 3.73 entry and 4.25 exit on Friday at plus 5% thinking they couldn't outgain common again. Well wrong. So now my dumb ass, where do I make a entry back into preferred?? Was thinking, 4.5? Had 5300 shares lol. Cost myself 34hun. But if u pull a 3 month chart and compare commom to preffered. You will see that whatever one moves, the other follows it's movement only when the other has stopped the move. P
Does it really matter who wins? Seriously, like either of the two is trustworthy..both support bailout, both have now said they won't to renegotiate some of the terms. So why does it matter? As long as one wins with majority would be biggest thing. Stability!! Like either of the two are serious about renegotiate. Yea for votes, last a month. They ain't dumb, they gonna lose all there own personal wealth and there families buying fighting it more. Doupt it. Highly think they're both most likely in the bag with this whole song and dance game going on. My only worry would be the Armstrong Factor. His theory is pie=8.4 on market. Predicted 86,99,07, all five years before. Called 07, and also called that same year 2015:Q3 next meltdown caused by global markets. Yikes!! That's what scares me. Awesome documentary out on the dude called "The Forecaster" highly recommend that.
Bad or good going on past q reports this always bounced up short term no matter what. I read that same article, what's confusing is I also read that they applied for a 30 day delay on earnings, so that there attention is on ongoing stress tests. Don't know which to believe? The article from seeking alpha was very interesting today on the preferred shares outlook. Basically said preferred, was the authors choice to stick with. Cause of the fact common has been diluted in past and appears to be coming again. Also that they could repurchase all the preferred shares, at say 5.00. They have done that before. Same author as the one who writes about the spread.
This road jam currently with the ADR still allowing buy and convert and sell same day. Building a strong basement of .64. If that doesn't break it thru, and somehow close ahead end of week. Looks like we bottomed here for sure you would think right?
Read my link from yesterday from seeking alpha. They opened the ADR books on Friday. You where allowed to buy on Athens convert to ADR same day and sell. Book is open on Monday. I knew watching level 2 that the same buys in Athens where sells on ADR. I thought it was movement of money buy no it was a freaking giveaway!
Actually Irish and love peps with poker names. Maverick what's your roi 14%. How much real money tournament winnings you have lifetime, in any major event.
What I would like to find out how this ADR conversation works. I'm guessing that once you buy on Athens it must be sold that day? I've never got involved in anything like this before, so for nothing else I've learned something. I'm hoping that Mellon bank will left the conversation early, unless they want to distinguish themselves as the most sound Greek bank. But no matter what we looking at .53 and .64. So if its open tmrw I think it will be brief. Cause friday should have been a much worse slide. Looks 62 to 64 has solid support. So with ADR in my mind at 64 being the lowest of lows think Athens will raise to 60 min before and closure on it. Maybe 62. So that's 20% gain on ATHENS if they want it and .63 or .64 with the Athens exchange the slight high with the value of the euro in the equation . So Monday if it's a option look for AThens big and NBG see early sales way below bid. Now if they don't, I see the charts forming a nice uptrend. If Athens closes up ajf NBG closed up both had begun at least a small trend line. But what a racker this is with this ADR its free money. Be like me telling you tmrw go buy 300 apple at 285 and on the bell it will be at 320. Its stealing money. Free money . only on wall street
Stupider? Your calling the country stupider?, classic. Not many times in writing, do you come upon across making fun of a whole country. But to use you a word that's not even in the English dictionary is priceless.
Second that thought. At least the shareholders in Athens where given a free 15% gain ticket with the ADR bs. Christ let us have a free gain as much as we can buy! Think that would give all of us a extra breath. Can't see this going much lower, I really can't. Expect a down day tmrw, if ADR is open to be turned over. But at least it made a nice uptrend line in Athens. ADR chart, with the exact pattern it has had daily in the last 4 days , very few times has that pattern turned to be a red day on day 5. ADR goes away, just wish it would turn for 14 days with no gaps and just develop some kind of chart
When are phase 3 results due? Is it late Q3 or early Q4?
Article on Fridays Action, will only continue on Monday since you can buy NBG.R or ETE.AT and convert it immediately to NBG ADR. Would love to be in Athens for this one. Article explains it all.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3474336-notice-todays-compression-in-the-national-bank-of-greece-arbitrage?source=feed_f
Think a lot of Fridays early selloff are failing to take into account some factors that are obvious to the reason's why. Believe this dates back to Wednesday of last week, you had various statements from multiple people stating that bank deposits are once again insured and not in risk of loss. With that in mind, you had NBG at +20+% Friday, price movement not once going towards the downside. The ADR sinking premarket under Heavy, Heavy volume. There was no news, both where trading, so you would think if there was negative news/rumors both would have begun to move downward together. Now if you look into the buys in the Athens exchange , they are pretty identical to the sales during the exact time of the ADR. Leads me to think that any mutual funds, any heavy investment funds that where in the ADR had funds moving directly to the Athens exchange. One might say why not before, why now? Well for one, there had been no public statements yet that had said the once again the depositors are insured in the Greek banking system. To me factor all this in and it only leads to that. There is no other explanation of Fridays action.
Only bank on Athens exchange positive today, beginning to show some strength.
Up 5% premarket Athens. Believe earnings was delayed a month, not sure.
Lol, that's hilarious, one word, NATO, what country has been evaded that was a NATO member with success in 30years? One, Kuwait, lasted what 80days. One stopped Russia advance in Ukraine, NATO. That ment billions to Russia in future income from owning the port, to trillions now, with now including sanctions. Without the price of oil reaching $70 a barrel, the rubel is done, and Russia will ultimately have to change regimes. So that's just a fairy tale ur dreaming. Not to mention IF they even wanted to how they getting there? By raft, by camel, they have no ships , no sea worthy transportation at all, or even air! Lol
Have you read the article out today? From eu about early indications of stress test are good. That the shareholders are fine, but still senior bondholders might be part of bail in. Just wanted to know cause I'm sitting on a lot preferred shares. Which are down today.
Can someone let me know, if senior bondholders of dept, might be included in a bail in. But shareholders won't be. OK here's the ? Preferred shares are shareholders. Senior bondholders and preferred shareholdrs, have nothing to do with each other correct? Shareholders would be common and preferred right?
I think a whole lot of people in positions are over , sold into the close, betting on China futures down, to buy back in the morning at lower open.
Quick move up at bell, could ever reach .82 before top off, wonder if that would squeeze some shorts out. Question is what is the sell point here today to dip back in later for the swing. .83 I think I sell for sure to get back in cheaper.
.4211 +17% within a hour. Yesterday gap down open was .4401. Appears to be first hurdle in store. As for why it's so up, maybe yesterday atcus open premarket was at . 41 the sell pressure from the whole situation sunk this lower. Closed to early to rebound along with all Europe didn't start to have life until 8pm futures. Would hate to be anyone who sold late figuring the China threat would sink it lower at opening and re enter cheaper. That idea was bounced around from TV to chat rooms to Twitter. I almost did it. Hope no one did here.
.408 +13.3% first 30mins. Won't be like some clowns here, saying told you so, going to 1.50...Well couldn't brag if I wanted to actually. Need a 3 day rally into earnings. Just had a great hotel rate and tourist number come in. Think this qtr will be a beat and a short term catalyst.