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Thanks. I will indeed do that asap.
You are so totally correct!
Yes.
Inovio was negotiating with multiple companies. It is only logical to assume this was the first deal to be completed. J. Kim said today that there are more in the future. Indeed given that J. Kim said today he was negotiating with multiple partners, I would hazard to say the other negotiations are still ongoing.
It depends on what is keeping this at only .24 cents up today. My guess is many others only came in for the announcement, indeed, given the recent run up it seems a leak drove it to its current level. Now that the catalyst is over, those people that came in to the stock in the last few weeks are leaving.
If I am reading that right, then the stock will resume its rise tomorrow and climb. I would say 3 is a more likely level. I would like to see them consolidate around 3 myself.
I understand. I was planning to sell on the announcement, and many others have the same idea and are executing on it. It is a good plan to sell into strength.
This price is not good enough for me to sell yet, so I will watch and wait a bit longer. I do have 75% of my capital tied up in INO right now, and do need to free some of it up for other uses soon, so I will take something in the near future. My question is how much I will take and when.
This partnership is a very big deal with huge numbers, the stock should move up on it. You may be right, the short term people may be getting out of the way today, leaving us set to move up tomorrow. I sure hope so!!!!
Yes I do like it. In this case any major pharma would do. I like the numbers of the deal. I had expected 200-300 million range.
As usual J. Kim exceeded my guesses.
I am sure the weak will be shaken out. I do not blame anyone for profit taking on the announcement. That was my plan as well. I have not taken any yet. This price is way to low for the new reality. I will wait a bit longer.
When a roughly 500 million company gets a $422 million deal, that is a BIG deal.
Wow great partnership announcement good pre market movement but very disappointing pps now. Lets hope the other presentations move the needle up for us.
Pump and Dump. Let me help you understand the reality.
Let me qualify that this is in regards to the VGX/Inovio pair the company that has been run by Joseph Kim.
Just look at the partners of Inovio and you will quickly understand that this company is no pump and dump. Companies with no real technology do not get NIH and US Army contracts. Now it could happen I suppose these are Government agencies, but you do not get multiple contracts multiple times that way. Certainly Merck would not do trials with your technology if this were a classic pump and dump. Finally any investor can research Dr. Joseph Kim and Dr. David Weiner, which is the two names that created most to the technology Inovio has today. Dr. Weiner was also one of the founders Apollon which was eventually sold to Weyth.
Someone mentioned that it is possible insiders sold into the highs. Perhaps. But the insiders would have had to file their SEC paperwork by now. I guess they could break the law for no gain. I mean why would they not file the paperwork if they sold? There is no up side for them.
Finally I can tell you that Inovio under J. Kim has never paid anyone to post data or send emails for them. I believe that may be in part 3 or 4 of my interview with J. Kim from Feb. If not it was brought up off camera quickly.
That does not mean that Inovio could not be pumped and or dumped by other agencies. Companies that bought a holding and want it to go up or down for profit certainly could send emails to people. I have never seen such a think on Inovio, and I get dozens of such things daily, but it could happen. Perhaps that is where a few well meaning people get these ideas from.
The good news is even if such an operation can cause fluctuations in the price the fundamentals will win the battle. So even if you got in at a pumped price, this stock is still undervalued at $3. I think it is easy to see this running much higher on a partnership, which we all expect soon due to management telling us to. If this partnership does not happen for some reason, there will be others in the future.
The company currently has enough cash to run through the end of 2015 and can also raise more through their current ATM agreement and probably will as the prices rise again. This makes INO well financed currently.
Someone is saying that Avtar Dhillon has been involved in other pump and dump stocks. I do not know the truth of this, but I notice no one has posted a link to any charges or sanctions against him. I would also note that he was in charge of Inovio before Joseph Kim took over the company. His current position was negotiated as part of the take over. He is not a member of management, nor a person that was selected by current management to be involved in the company. He held a large stock position in Inovio because he was a former CEO. He does not have the power to cause problems for investors from inside the company (for example accounting issues or hiding data). I never owned any Inovio stock before J. Kim took it over, even though I was very aware of the company and looked into it years before the take over.
Good luck to all of the holders here, long, short traders and holders I personally like them all. I believe sincerely the long term trend is going very high. I would trade it more but I feel the partnership is an any day now occurrence and I do not want to be out on that day. I only ask people posting here to try to be honest and post good information, good or bad for Inovio. If you have some real negative information I want to hear it. Most of us already know the dangers of investing in biotech already....
Food for thought, mgmt has said in the past that electroporation technology is for Non exclusive licensing only. I am sure there is a dollar number they will do it for, but it would be Very high. The ep technology is jus too valuable to tie it up in an exclusive license. I know in the past back in the private vgx days we felt the ep portfolio was worth over 1 billion. Since then there is more clinical data, and the technology has matured and had more off shoots (epidermal and oral for example).
I just do not believe an exclusive license will happen, though I will welcome for one part at a 1 billion license...
Yep such things happen sometimes.
Yes I added 75k more in the 1.70s. I meant to grab another 200k but I got busy on other things and just forgot. My cutoff for adding was 2. I will add more at some point I am just not sure where right now. If we have a big pullback I will dance and shout as I add more.
I do not understand your statement. I am quite profitable on that buy in so yes I could get $ back. However I do not want to. I have stated many times my strategy is to wait for the partnership announcement before making a major sale. I am quite happy to ride the 345,000 shares I have added since Feb until then. I will make a judgement call on how much profit to take then as I have other uses for the money. I will ride my other shares that I have held over 10 years to a much higher share price.
Kyle excellent research as always. Are you going to attend the conference in nyc? I am considering it I love nyc in sept.
A good concept but teva is not considered a major pharma, and I know mgmt wants a major pharma. Especially one with a lot of experience developing and bringing drugs to market. Teva just does not have hat yet. Now I could see Teva trying to buy a company like Ino, which would prob end up being a partnership.
no matter what I think Joseph Kim will surprise us all.
i just hope whatever deal is being worked on gets done and soon.
Lasers, I have heard nothing about the patent stuff yet. I will follow up directly in the next week.
I have it on a good authority that 1.60 was not considered epic a few weeks ago. I believe pps is only part of epic. A major partnership is the second piece of the puzzle.
You know having an agenda is ok as long as you post data that is at least close to accurate. I want Ino to go up.
But I often say few people here should be invested in biotech at all. I have posted a pretty detailed history of the company and detailed the failures. If that makes people not like Ino that is fine with me.
But when you read my posts you know I love the company and believe in its potential. But you know I believe this based on the science first, personal experience with management second, and the impressive change in direction in 2006 until now third.
And p what % since the peer reviewed hiv data release MG? You know the one in that medical journal that is partmof the Ino pump?
So are you able to provide us with how much % wise it is up since then? How about in the last 12 months?
If he was that kind of guy he would have already admitted his mistake. Ino is not a pump and dump, that is a fact. Ino may fail in the end, but if is a real company with real science. If has the worlds best scientists in the dna vaccine and electroporation fields. If it fails it will be an honest fail. Sometime science just does not work.
Vgx had 3 failures while it was private. Yet it still remained in business and raided tens of millions more of private funds. We who were involved were not stupid, we understood how things work. So most kept funding and J. Kim refocused the company into what it is today. Even with perfect science 99 % of drugs fail.
Mg has not demonstrated himself to be a good investor here. Indeed his behavior is suspicious, and he demonstrates himself to be both uninformed and nothing more then a basher. Many of his posts are flat out delusional as we watch his twisting of reality and math to make Ino lose 1000%. In a year the stock is up over 300%. His posts are in no way helpful to anyone doing research on Ino.
No I am not nor of Ghrh which will be coming along soon as well.
Any how the pipeline of this company is both wide and deep...
Yes, they touted the ability to work with companies and create custom vaccines with them during the Advisys takeover, so I have known it since 2006, If you read about the system carefully you could figure out it is possible like you did.
But I am telling you Vgx told me it was possible and that they intended to develop that capability. My guess is they are focused on getting something approved, after that it will become a very large source of revenue for Inovio, and it will be set up for very little up front money needed.
Actually there are more platforms then that... Does anyone realize that SynCon allows for plug n play vaccine development?
INO can work with other companies that have developed their own DNA fragment and simply plug that into the SynCon construct for instant vaccine. Also INO could license the whold SynCon system for outside development, though I think they would rather control that directly.
Other items are also in INO's back room that can be brought forward as technology makes them more practical. You wold all be amazed at some of the non syncon products and their success rates. This company always is more then meets the eye. I bet Kyle could find some of those details if he looks.
I do not recall saying the partnership would drive it to $10, I do recall saying I thought it would be worth $10 on a partnership. If I said 10 share price I am not sure what I was thinking. If the stock had run to $5 I would have said that as far as a double in the price.
Anyhow, my guess on SP is a double and hopefully more. When we were sitting at 2.50 to 3 that got us over $5. I am still hoping for $5 sometime after the deal announcement, the truth is the deal itself will decide for us.
I will be taking profits on a large block I have bought recently around the announcement time. I will not be touching my core position.
Yep I am sorry for making the wrong call on that, I hope I did not influence your decision to hold. We all took the educated gamble and lost on that one.
I am happy the shorts did well. They must have really needed the money after the $3 run.
I think we will see the partnership announcement soon. Weather soon is a few days or a few weeks/months I do not know. I hope we see a price double on the announcement but my only basis for that is how the share price behaved during the rumor run up. If the deal is good enough I do think we will see a double.
This is why I have been using my trading cash to buy more shares. I do regret those I picked up at about 2.30 but had the partnership announcement happened then I would be laughing to the bank. When the stock stops falling, I will buy about 30,000 more.
I am disappointed by the retreat in stock price, but I knew it would fall if it turned out to have run to $3 on rumor. Right now I will be happy if we consolidate soon and hope we stay over 1.10.
Yep I am always lurking somewhere. I have been major busy so not posting so much.
I think the rumor mill drove it up. I was convinced it was a leak of the partnership from someone, I guess I was wrong. I really drove up my cost basis buying in to that. But I have been buying it going down too. I am well prepared for the announcement and can only hope it is SOON as I have more capital tied up in INO then I intended and will need to be able to liquidate some in a month or so for living expenses!
J kim has no problem with partnering, the only sticking point is getting a deal good enough to sign. He has been working on a major pharma partnership for over a year. He made it abundantly clear when I met with him in feb as well... He has said consistently for years that we (Ino) is fort sale, we just are not cheap. He would gladly do a major pharma deal with each product in the pipeline, and a deal with gates. Ino will not do exclusive licensing for electroporation except for its related companies.
You will be pleasantly surprised by him if you felt he was having a problem partnering. When VGX was private that was always the plan, he has expressed as much for INO by talking about a partnership for over a year.
Hlegweakreturns, thanks for the history recap. I do not see anything in it that supports your premise that the Gates Foundation has any real interest in INO. I am very well aware that they know who INO is, that is a given. I am also aware they have spoken with INO on occasion.
I hope that your premise is correct, I really do. But the reason I responded is because I see too many posts speculating on this with no evidence. I did read the post I replied to about the Gates Foundation adding individuals for the purpose of expanding investment in to companies and other reasons.
It is only logical to think that they will start looking at companies that are part of its existing programs.
The big area I disagree with you on is that Gates has already made such a commitment to INO, or that the process is so far along that the board authorized allowing the share count go to 600 million for this purpose.
Again, we have written extensively about this on the board already when it happened. You may not have been around back then, so I will walk you through why I think this way.
Why would INO need to be able to go to 600 Million shares for a Gates equity investment? It is possible, but unlikely. The board could already issue about 130 million more new shares at the time, and I do not think it is reasonable to think that the Gates Foundation would be putting more than 130 million into a company that had a market cap of less then 100 million at the time of the vote (I think it was around 80 million). If Gates wanted to put in 300 million this could easily be accomplished by selling them 100 million shares at $3 and would have the added benefit of pushing up the companies share price to $3 on the low end. That would leave about another 30 million shares sitting around for other purposes.
If the reason for the share increase were to accommodate the Gates Foundation or another large investor, the increase would have likely been much smaller. An additional 100 million shares would have been more than enough. The heat that management took from such a large increase to 600 million would have been much less. There is simply no good reason from an investment standpoint at this time that justifies the 300 million share increase.
However, if you take my premise that the increase of 300 million shares (for a total available shares that can be issued of 600 million) was to accomplish a poison pill, 300 million makes perfect since. I also think they increased the share count to have more shares on hand for partnerships in general. The reason the share count has to go so high for a poison pill is the way it works. If a company is buying shares of INO on the open market and manages to accrue 51% of the company (I think you are beyond the need of this explanation hlegweakreturns, but some will appreciate it) then INO can simply issue more shares to drive percentage down, diluting just like what happened when they sold more shares in a private placement last April. A good guide for how many shares you need on hand is about 75% more than you have already. If you think about it, that makes sense.
On the low end you would have 50% more, because they need to get 51% for control, and it would be all but impossible for them to get over 90% if management hand any substantial ownership, so the idea of being able to dilute someone 50% to 90% is what is needed. So if they owned 50% and you diluted them 50% they own 25% now. The ability to get them below 10% for a publicly traded company is even better. A 10% holder gets certain rights in a public company, and anyone that is trying to be hostile to management would not be very welcome at this level.
To sum my thoughts up, issuing about 300 million more shares gives the board the ability to dilute any hostile takeover attempt by about 80 to 90 percent. Which is right where you want to be before your small biotech company starts releasing really good data and news, and just before you announce a major Pharma partnership and become a target to be taken over.
There is no filing from the company stating they are using the shares for a poison pill. Few companies state that, I have never seen it. There are potential legal ramifications for management making a statement like that so it does not happen as often.
These are my thoughts on the subject. But just like your own statements it is just speculation. I believe the logic supports my position, and adding to that my knowledge of this company. I sincerely hope you are correct in your thinking but we have not seen any evidence that supports a large Gates Foundation investment. We have seen lots of evidence about a major Pharma partnership.
We could both be right, Gates could invest and INO could have still diluted for Poison Pill reasons.
We have discussed this in a lot of detail on this board. That was a poison pill plain and simple.
I do not know that the Gates Foundation has shower any real interest in Ino. I think if they had any they would have gotten on board with Ino malaria vaccine. Obviously, any good trial results will make them seriously evaluate being involved with Ino in a serious way.
Ino involvement with the path vaccine is a big deal, but it is a small part compared to having the vaccine itself, and the delivery system, plus running the program.
I hope that I am wrong, but I do not believe there is any serious talk from gates foundation making any major investments in Ino. I do believe that could change as our Malaria vaccine progresses. I could buy that J. Kim even is planning it that way by bringing thst program forward at this time.
Lol p1 and p2 is how you get to p3 and then to market. Ino could care less about drumming up interest. These people only care about results
Yes many do and have gone to Ino. People like Kevin Ranasses who worked at Searle directly for Don Rumsfeld. However, most of the people from big pharma at Ino are not retired. Inovio has been talking a partnership, not a buy out. Management has stated many times they do not want a buy out. These people are not looking for an exit, they love where they are...
That stated, your word of caution should be heeded. Few people should be in biotech at all, fewer in mid stage companies.
You should get your facts straight and do some dd...
Just added another 30,000 shares today. If it pulls back a good bit more tomorrow I will add more.
Heck just last week Motley Fool had a poorly written hit piece on INO. Go figure. Now it is running they want to pretend they loved it all along...
By the way for all of you talking about some companies being paid, the VGX/INO company has NEVER paid anyone for writing articles or publicity like that. It is just not something they have ever needed to do or believe in.
LOL Thanks. This has been a long time coming for me. I still think we have a way to go yet. We will see how the year ends.....
Again, I have no true information just my feeling, so this could easily be wrong....
I think that is a good guess. I have been assuming that since last week. I think the worst case is we have to wait a month or two. Either way I feel the announcement will be the biggest catalyst for the stock, so I am holding until then. I am considering taking some profits then, but I will in no way be selling my core position, just a about 300,000 shares I have bought in the last month just for this run up. We will see how it goes. I will prob not even sell the full 300k. I am thinking half. That is MY thinking.
I do encourage you all to seriously consider where you are when that announcement happens. If you are undecided, take whatever your cost is off the table and play with house money.
This is what happens when things go right for a bio company. Sooner or later the news will be out and the run over. Let us all hope it settles over $3 a share.
As always, enjoy the run. Maybe take a few dollars off and take a vacation.....
I do not have any specific data on what is happening. However I stand by what I was saying last week that I think someone has leaked partnership information.
I cannot disagree with anyone that takes some profit. For me, I will ride up and down until the partnership agreement is released before I consider taking any profits. I feel a good partnership agreement could push this stock up 50% to 100% a the time of the announcement. I think that may be a good time to consider taking some profit.
Meanwhile I hope all of the longs are enjoying the fun. Shorts, well sorry for you but you were warned.
No I do not think so. Maybe after Gates and Buffet invest in Inovio directly this would be a real thought.
Much of the attitude you are expressing is not the way that I or indeed Inovio management sees big Pharma. I view them as future customers and partners, and I know management feels much the same. We all like big pharma and I know that Inovio intends to be big pharma one day.
However Management is not so foolish as not to protect themselves and us, the shareholders. This is the reason they got authorization to go to 600 mil shares to protect us all from hostile take overs. As long as it is cheaper to buy the company then to develop the technology on your own that was possible. Now they will have to negotiate a fair price with Mgmt to license or buy our technology/company.
I do not think a legal challenge can or will hold any water against Inovio. Again, Vgx found no real grounds for such a challenge.
I feel that innovation is the only real challenge, or buying the company.
Inovio does not own electroporation, but they are by far the biggest game in town. You could say that many of their patents are necessary to get uptake in the clinical doses necessary. To do it as well or better, companies would need to innovate. And example of this would be combining a lessor electroporation system with an adjunct technology to receive similar and or better results. Furthermore, a delivery system that is not electroporation could achieve the same or superior results. So far electroporation is superior and continues to get better.
I truly believe that if you intend to use electroporation, licensing Inovio technology is both better and cheaper then developimg your own.
Inovio's electroporation patent portfolio is better than anyone else's. That being said, no it is not unassailable. The primary way I see to take electroporation away from Inovio is through innovation.
The patent portfolio is good, but electroporation was not invented by Inovio, nor is it owned by them. I remember another company planning to take that market from Inovio, and indeed innovating to the point it was ahead of Inovio. That company was called VGX and eventually they took over Inovio for their patent portfolio.
I do think that any company that wants to be in the electroporation space will want to own Inovio, or license from them. Just like VGX wanted to own Inovio, even though they considered the Inovio technology inferior. Given that Inovio's structure will keep a hostile takeover from happening, A company would most likely try a friendly takeover. Barring that, licensing. Only as a last resort do I see them trying to develop technology from the start and steal the market. It is possible though and a major pharma could pull it off.
Inovio is not sitting still though. They are continuing to innovate in the electroporation space and have long term development plans.
I have no good information on that.
I did say last week that I thought the current run up and volume could be due to the partnership data having leaked. So that being said my guess is the next few weeks. I have been adding to my shares based on that assumption. I added 50,000 shares a week ago Friday.