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The routine of limiting bullish momentum always eventually eliminates the desire for bulls to slap the ask or even sit nearby on the bid. The trend also very effectively fends off any would-be buyers.
As I said earlier, they didn't get a volume spike (e.g. stops) so they will have to force it to languish here for some time if the intention is to collect shares. With time, shares will trickle through the fingers of the weak hands and disparaged investors who they've intentionally trapped on a recent massive bull run to $4+ when 23M shares traded on a single day.. Was the recent patent announcement only of value when the company was strapped for cash?
I expect that they are still trying to cover their immense short position which, as I pointed out at the time of the financing, they put on illegally: knowing that the financing deal was going to be closed. I under-estimated their greed, as the Series B convertibility is more than enough to cover - it is now serving as a risk-killing hedge while they attempt to squeeze every penny out of their plan. I would add more here if I wasn't tied up elsewhere.
The big dogs have large stakes in this which are now convertible at .676. Am I supposed to believe that they were unable to allocate a bit of their attention and some cash to defend their $16.5M position from this simple game? I doubt it.
OMID
I don't buy that theory: that some institution/whale is unloading.
The promising close on July 11 was followed-up by a totally unnatural and FORCED reduction in the share price to open the following day. Do not forget that strong buying was happening PM at the ask.
When you unload a position or go to sell something (e.g. your car), will you try to force the buyer to take it at a price far-lower than what you know they are willing to pay?
The manipulators have gone to great lengths to make this appear to be languishing by simply squashing any/all instances of a trend reversal. By limiting bullish momentum they have created a faux market, but it is not to unload, so now: you tell me why.
OMID
This is some very extensive manipulation. A great deal of continuous effort has been expended to bring the price down this far on low volumes.
The ask is paper thin, of course, as the lowest available price for conversions is currently 0.676/share.
It is intriguing for sure. What comes next?
Seems my previous post may be on-point.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142281760
The caveat is that there was no enormous volume (e.g. stops) down at these prices. A similar outcome can be accomplished through languishing.
OMID
If I'm Zimmer, the lower the AMDA price is when I make an offer, the more likely that it will be accepted, and potentially, the less I will have to pay.
Every buy at the ask is instantaneously coupled with a 100 share sell at the bid price to paint it red. If that's not a clear manipulation tactic then I don't know what is and my identifying it has only increased my resolve to hold my shares tight.
OMID
I often like to think about what I would do if I was a market maker and it really also applies all the same to the theory of a potential buyer trying to shake/load before announcement.
I would trigger stops at 0.50, creating a spike of volume to load up and put in a strong bottom. It would send a nice signal to the market that it's time to be buying not selling and thus make it easier to move the price up to profit.
Anyone know what the bid at .50 looks like?
OMID
As a buoy which is released underwater will suddenly rip toward the sky: this stock will look terrible up until the moment it is released.
Buying here is contrarian investing. It is a deep-value play at an all-time low with an incredible risk:reward - I can hardly stress this enough - this is easy for me to hold here.
OMID
I completely agree with this position.
Just added 14K at .54 - this is the ultimate example of a buoy being held underwater.
OMID
This could be to trigger stops and shake weak hands then scoop.
Wish I had more cash to add more than I did this morning.
At open I can sell some options and grab more.
OMID
Just fire-sold something to pick up shares down here.. thank you to the shorts trying to create a panic.
OMID
Oh you thought they were using conversion shares to take a loss? LOL
Bro, you are trying very hard on this forum and elsewhere to get me excited, trust me, you are failing badly.
To the sellers I will say good riddance and thank you
I will certainly be loading this morning.
I'll have to fire-sell some things to do so.
If a 25% gap down on no news, way below the bollinger bands and after a strong close on high volume, doesn't amaze you then you are a novice.
It is prior to 8AM.. in pre-market trading. If it stays here without a reason (bad news) it will be appalling.
OMID
The strategy for financiers from here depends on several factors.
On one hand: what is the overall desire & commitment to large, relatively short-term gains? They may seek to accomplish this with news, opportunistic buying, and/or promotional coverage. I was certainly expecting to see a bit of a recovery after the 5-day period - why not? They pushed it down with ease. Retail expectations for this should help.
On the other hand: what is the overall acceptance of smaller, respectable gains? They'd be potentially reducing risk exposure while having capital to invest elsewhere.. They can do this buy simply converting and selling anytime the price is above 0.679
40 trading days from now, the second option will be perpetually available any time the stock price is above the VWAP of the previous 5-days.
Finally, the long-term holders may simply seek to ride this for the next dilution terms along with a chance to hit the jackpot with market success or buyout.
OMID
The 5-day VWAP =~ $0.776/share
Therefore, the Series B conversion price is ~$0.679/share (87.5% of .776) for the next 40 trading days.
$16.5M converted at $0.679 = 24.3M shares
With 11.37M warrants (representing additional $18M in paid-in capital; fixed @ $1.6/share) and the pre-financing fully diluted share count of 6M, the new (worst-case) fully diluted OS could not be more than 41.67M
I will be amazed if the share price goes below the conversion price... to recap: financiers want to push this up as much as possible and on high volume if they are planning to reduce their position.
OMID
ATNM Research Papers/Articles Rev. 02
New content in red.
Basic Science on ATNM site
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/awe-technology
- In a nutshell, any bio-targeting mechanism can be bound with radioactive actinium isotopes to produce an extremely deadly, accurate, and precise treatment to eliminate the target.
ATNM Pipeline:
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/product-pipeline
Daratumumab Posters:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/actiniumpharma/files/docs/ATNM_AACR2018+Poster.pdf
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/actiniumpharma/files/docs/ATNM_ASH2017_AC225+Daratumumab_Poster.pdf
Actinium Pharmaceuticals: Neglected Assets In Niche Oncology
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166543-actinium-pharmaceuticals-neglected-assets-niche-oncology
Oppenheimer Equity Research Report
https://opco2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=00583956-39dd-450b-895d-61d6b09d6cb5&mime=pdf&co=Opco2&id=marek@liolios.com
Note: Upside Scenario section states "ATNM advances another alpha particle candidate into the clinic in 2018"... Actimab-A MRD was announced 28June2018
Nice publications on Targetted Radio-therapy using alpha particles
1. https://www.urotoday.com/journal/everyday-urology-oncology-insights/articles/98187-a-review-on-the-development-of-targeted-alpha-therapy-in-the-treatment-of-cancer-focusing-on-the-first-and-only-fda-approved-targeted-alpha-therapy-radium-223-in-the-treatment-of-metastatic-castration-resistant-prostate-cancer-mcrpc.html
2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4940885/
3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12941838
[color=red]^^"[Ac-225] ..can extend survival significantly in a nude mouse model of human ovarian cancer at levels that produce no apparent gross toxicity"[/color]
Various Publications:
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/product-pipeline/publications
OMID
Funny thought.. if VWAP for the day tomorrow exceeds $4.17/share - the $1.45/share conversion price will still stand.
OMID
Day 4 of 5: VWAP = 0.75
I'll compute the worst-case OS tomorrow EOD.
See replied-to post for more flavor.
OMID
Day 3 of 5: VWAP = $0.76/share
For worst-case floor conversion price ($0.48/share): the VWAP for the next two trading days has to average $0.21/share
Price seems to be quite stable in the .70s as pointed out by hondobud earlier. From my perspective, it appears that they are content just holding it below 0.80/share so as not to encounter too much resistance and accidentally trigger a run by waking the sleeping giants.
Being conservative: if VWAP is 0.7 for next two days.. 5-day VWAP = 0.746
Conversion price would be 87.5% of 0.746 =~ 0.653
$16.5M converted at .653 = 25.27M
With 11.37M warrants (representing additional $18M in paid-in capital; fixed @ $1.6/share) and the pre-financing fully diluted share count of 6M, the new (worst-case) fully diluted OS could not be more than 42.64M
Note: my worst case assumes 100% the series B will convert at the new price and did not already do so to cover their obvious shorts from ~$4/share
OMID
References:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140776357
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141879913
You are welcome
To be honest, I am almost all-in right now aside from some preferred shares and warrants in other tickers.
Actimab data should come this month and may just be the spark that ignites widespread recognition of the raging-fire potential of the AWE technology platform (as a revolution in modern medicine). News next week would certainly align well with the chart technicals!
If this explodes to $10/share on good study data, I will not be surprised in the slightest.
The risk of bad data being reported seems exceedingly small from my perspective - especially since the company quietly added Actimab-B, -C, and -P to their pipeline - making this a perfect risk:reward scenario.
OMID
Dp, it's my pleasure to help the loyal longs here. If it doesn't not bring value for the current scenario, perhaps it will in the next pick.
I will provide a worst-case maximum, fully diluted OS on July 11th after the market closes.
OMID
See post # 16794 my dude
Day 2 of 5: VWAP = 0.8
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/AMDA/VwapTable/TradingHours
For worst-case floor conversion price ($0.48/share): the VWAP for the next three trading days has to average 0.3933
Seems like the crisis scenario has been averted.
OMID
Great observation - nice angle for the Zimmer merger theory.
OMID
This is a very poor analysis of what will unfold here after July 11th. Worst case it will be a brief dip to god knows where before then.
In order to cash in on the financing - specifically, the Series B conversion - the price must rise and it will take a whole heck of a lot of volume if the intention is to unload the 37M+ potential converted commons.
Based on today's main trading VWAP of $0.77/share (refer to image & link below), the average VWAP for the next 4 trading days has to be $0.495/share in order for the 5-day average VWAP to be ~$0.55/shre and conversion to happen at the floor price of $0.48/share.
I am expecting a gap down tomorrow but the chart shows this being quite oversold - it is going to attract a lot of attention simply because the price is way below the BBs. I dunno if they will be able to manipulate due to chart techs but it won't surprise me.
Refer to chart in link: http://schrts.co/LoE4R8
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/AMDA/VwapTable/TradingHours
Some of the posts today are quite ignorant about how this financing actually works - you should review my recent posts. Be careful in your assumptions; you are spreading incorrect information.
OMID
I agree with hondi that buying in tranches is good. I would personally weight my larger $-value orders to the low side.
The strategy really depends on how the price progresses. One thing is for sure: they will likely be the only major volume seller sub-.55 and they will need to keep it there. So there's almost a mutual benefit for us to leave low-ball orders for them to fill.
One other thought: I would not try to personally levititate or support this unless I had several million ready to invest. Ideally, us hardcore longs should let it fall and buy it low so we tie up as much of the float.
Do note that I do not intend to come off as if we are all a team of longs. Sure, I am happy to share my thoughts but too often novice traders holding bags rely on their fellow bagholders for emotional support as they all lose their money together. That is not what I am doing. I personally like this action as the financiers will want to send this back up to reap their reward. My favorite recent case in point is the crypto longs calling each other family as the hodl back to hell.
OMID
Check this post. Indeed Hondo.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141879913
It will be interesting to see how well this holds up.. interested whales could just load.
Again, the most entertaining outcome would be Japanese clearance announced, destroying the institutions trying to manipulate this.
OMID
Today is day 1 of 5 to determine Series B conversion pricing.
Dropping on extreme manipulation, precisely as expected per my last couple posts.
EDIT: 20K ask slap just filled at .83 like it was nothing.. with no real ask on L2 at the time.
GLTA
OMID
Ok, fine they can be bought back for at least 3x the financing cost. The company is not likely to have sufficient spare cash sitting around to do this.
RE, forgive my delayed response.
The 34M figure is simply the worst-case conversion of Series B shares (assuming a new financing with worse terms - for retail shareholders - does not change the terms; the series B terms will be amended to match any future financing terms).
~52M common is the worst-case fully diluted OS; it breaks down as follows:
34.275M - Series B conversion (@ $0.48/share)
11.37M - conversion of warrants (@1.60/share)
~6M to 7M - fully diluted OS before financing
~29M is the bast-case with the only difference from above:
11.37M - Series B conversion (@1.45/share)
Truly believe that the current valuation is absurd; if things get much worse it will be totally preposterous. I will be loading for sure.
OMID
Charts + Financing Worst Case
Nothing has changed with my perspective.. refer to the post I replied to.
I will laugh pretty hard at the institutions if Japan clearance or merger announcement suddenly launches this before July 12... so take my apparent bearishness with a (few) shot(s) of your preferred hard alcohol if you try to flip this based on what I write below.
Note: there is really not a massive difference in dilution between best and worst-case - if I recall correctly from one of my earlier posts, dilution is ~80% and ~88% in both cases, respectively - the damage to retail shareholders is already done by Sonny.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140776357
-Edit: found the post referred to above.
WORST CASE: Summary recap of financing:
To be clear - this scenario is hardly different than the financing that brought it to $0.10 before RS to ~$1.4
Floor conversion price = $0.48
87.5% discount to lowest VWAP 5-day prior to conversion applies the 5 trading days prior to July 12th = 87.5% discount to VWAPs on July 05, 06, 09, 10, & 11th (I'm not clear if this is total VWAP or avg. of the 5 days but that's besides the point).
To recover shares at $0.48/share, 5-day VWAP must be $0.5485/share or lower; I don't really see any penalty for trying for lower if buy-volume is low. I would be collecting shares from panic sellers and disgusted longs.
I personally highly doubt that interested money will sit idly by and leave money on the table unless there are much hungrier sharks/whales in the water.. but this would be a real feat in price manipulation using either converted warrants (totally worth doing but hard to prove fair intent) or naked short shares.
Again, this could be how ZBH is rewarding the institutions that holding their dying stock.. as I pointed out earlier: conveniently, the ZBH price to buy AMDA likely does not change much due to the financing and the "debt-free, not cash starved" story has a nice ring to it when telling a story..
FYI: IF the Series B holders get their way, they will convert $1100 per $1000 invested @ $0.48 with a true break-even at $0.4363 - this is the truest floor price IMO.
Updated chart (older chart further below):