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I am guessing a lot of this rally today has to do with generating headlines going into next weeks convention. "S&P at an all time High" "Nasdaq over 5100" etc. Also seeing other stuff popping up such as another hands up don't shoot controversy in Florida.
Fed meeting next week if Yellen speaks will be interesting to see if she has a new scarf. They never do anything just jawbone how good things are but not good enuf to raise interest rates. But if there is a new scarf whittle be dang something to talk about.
Shorting XIV probably a better market hedge if you can find shares to sell this thing is a retail - fed money transfer machine and has been for 6 years. Bernie Madoff must be in a jail somewhere saying and you got me locked up look at that this scammarama. XIV trading down about 10% from highs just recently even with VIX under 12 now.
That's an interesting strategy at this point in time considering this fed cash cow debut in 2010 now you have all of a sudden discovered the power of the short tvix position.
Could be the smoking gun to correct the overvalued markets. Media waited till after hours US stock market to announce the coup on a Friday. Doesn't affect Obama legacy yellen or the upcoming conventions. Hit it your on mr. debby downer.
They have taken many to the cleaners no doubt. I mentioned few weeks ago I thought they would throw everything but the kitchen sink boosting equities and drumming up social justice/injustice going into the dem conventions and sure nuf that is what they have done. At some point at least a hint of extended valuations should kick in though.
I agree they are going to hurt a lot of people with this continuing emergency rate policy just as they have crushed the savers. People become complacent looking at there 401k's thinking this will go on forever. It just cannot. Equities have a historical norm valuation that they always gravitate back towards.
Nothing is more important than goosing the stock market. There really gonna have to coddle Clinton through this. National media is already turning most of there attention and time back to cops and away from the latest Hilary scandal. One thing definitely jumps out though in market action. Fed is having less and less of an effect with there not going to raise rates anytime soon drumbeat.
Looks that way -- end of quarter window dressing. Now the fed is completely out of the picture with brexit so good economic new should be supportive for stocks and vice versa. Jobs number can be spun so retail sales data new orders housing starts etc. probably a better indicator.
Deterioration doesn't retrace. More Yellen for 2 days. Hard to do anything in this market long or short. A fed speech, fed meeting, fed testimony, fed minutes, fed comments every single week. They are totally controlling market direction.
That could be why the futures are gapping so hard. I would go with vegas before any polls. Currently -260 stay. However a stay could increase odds of a fed rate hike.
38k really odd number no doubt. Vegas putting odds on brexit. UK to stay 1-3. Not to mention another Yellin speech at next weeks meeting. Just plan on chipping away at this thing with small buys if it continues to deteriorate.
This has basically turned into another Yellen not going to raise rates any time soon rally. I've lost count of how many this is. Nowhere else to put your money. I am scaling in slowly see how high they can take it.
Since goldman sachs downgraded equites the s&P has rallied from 2027-2112. Markets are being run by the fed and big banks playing good cop bad cop. This thing is so rigged at this point you could throw darts at a dartboard and come up with any numerical valuation and it still would not make logical sense.
Positives outweigh the negatives that sounds like a July rate hike to me.
Since the Yellen-Obama meeting mid april market has been trading ultra bullish. Any smidgen of a positive piece of data becomes just that. Ultra positive.
Who knows lael brainard made doantions to the Clinton campaign. Could be political to keep paper money as polished as possible. Then again it could just be all about the hokey pokey.
Apparently Yellen is speaking again next week they want the market as high as possible for some reason. Never seen so much fed speak. Its either a bucket list item or they want the equity market gussied up for political purposes or some other unknown reason.
AMZN noticed lots of coverage the last week or so multiple networks internet articles etc.. Guessin that means somebunny and a big bunny wants to sell.
Yellen speech follow through also from Friday. Probably try and gap the S&P toward 2110. Low was around 2027 May 19. Quite a move to close out May.
Looking at about + 50 S&P points since the Goldman downgrade. 2079 gotta be close to another top. Oil is actually getting into the area where it could topple fragile consumer discretionary spending. Especially since they got use to 2 buck gasoline.
Fed minutes tomorrow last minutes dow rallied about 250. They gotta floor under this overvalued market. Fed speak almost weekly.
Just did some math on this thing S&P topped out few weeks ago at 2110 and TVIX was about 3.68 spot VIX 12.50. S&P is now down 50 points VIX has moved to 14.50 and TVIX has still lost another 20% with contango and decay. Really unbelievable.
Got some 2.95's way to easy afterhours think your right there still pumping the markets but a new market high is going to be a real push even with no chance of a rate hike this summer.
AAPL put in a 52 week low Friday that's pretty big considering the market cap and index weighting. Tech looks like the new bear except for amzn fb. When earnings season is over the computer bots are going to have to readjust to compensate for overvaluation no matter how many birds the dovish fed lets out of the cage.
Markets are running on algorithms based on a dovish fed. Very little to do with supply/demand valuations earnings etc. I think the flash crash was the first big test at computer controlled trading. Now its just a matter of the federal reserve controlling the markets through its policy actions and speech.
Since the yellen-obama meeting last Monday seen a pretty substantial change in both equity and commodity trading. Looks like they are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at hyper-inflating assets. You cant use any common sense in asset valuations. Then the media tags along and spins it the direction of the momentum.
There's the Dow +100 print for the day. Market looks like its just trading off computer programs. Very little logic involved.
INtc report being ignored. My guess they are trying to keep it propped waiting for a strong earnings report maybe AMZN or FB or another dovish statement from the Fed next week.
Showing 12.98 low guessing much of this push down is coming from expirations tomorrow. Lots of round numbers being hit s&p 2100 dow 18k watching for brent 45.
Dovish fed is more important than earnings. I think they want s&P 2100-2110 for a media headline. At some point valuations will come back into play. You cant buy a new car for 30k and put it on Ebay for 40k. Not that many suckers in the world at least I don't think there are.
I first noticed these weekend gap downs 3-6% Dec. 2014 well said on both post. Obviously a form of price control just like overestimating the draw number which also happens more than not. 3 day weekends even more brutal. If this 3% holds UGAZ will open below the all time low .67.
Iran oil + Saudi oil = US shale boom is absolutely toast. Another consideration -- environmental we have never seen this much oil above ground. Everyone is pumping trying to stay afloat, preserve market share, or take there competitors out of biz. Chances of a major oil spill are high.
Noticed last July after the first hint of the Iran deal the administration is working as a sidebar to take out the US shale boom even though they take credit for both low energy prices and the huge boost it has given to the economy. Next 11 months would not be surprised if they up the rhetoric big time on social issues global climate chat etc.
Think you are right. They crushed the price with no meeting till June then they dial it back with a possible emergency meeting. Then you have the big banks dialing in 40 oil one week 20 oil the next. Big money is just jerking the price around using media outlets to capture skirt chasers and bottom fishers.
Gallon wholesale gasoline is now cheaper than a gallon of water. 98 cents at this rate there gonna be giving it away by spring.
Business insider had an article showing how the Middle East has a huge advantage in the global market. It was May 2014 but have no reason to think the figures are not accurate.
http://www.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-cost-of-production-2014-5
Last week they were saying oil was going to 40$ barrel now back to the 20$ number. Looks like they are just throwing out price targets to increase the volatility.
All the news is negative ofcourse it will be bad I think everybody from kalamazu to Katmandu realize that.
Need a new short catalyst to get it that low. Market started factoring in the Iran oil last July. China slowing, Saudi production, Shale boom, oversupply--same thing over and over like somebody is turning a rolodex and picking a card for the day.