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you...
Would appreciate it if someone posted daily charts of Dell, Apple, Intel, HP and AMD.
me...
done:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=AMD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=INTC%2Cdell%2Caapl%2Chpq
Is it my imagination or are your rantings getting shriller as the difference in price between AMD and INTC continues to widen? Really, one would expect an obviously inteligent person as yourself, that's so intimately involved with both INTC and AMD to have at least made a few bucks by suppressing one biases and going with the obvious flow. But then sadly no; I guess backing the home team is more important than taking the extra points and beating the odds? Too bad, but as they say money isn't everything is it? I'm sure you find lots of comfort in knowing that you've blown one of lifes semi-rare gifts for a good cause.
MMOY...
Thought might be interested in this from Yahoo.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687810&tid=amd&sid=4687...
you...
OT I have an old system (duron 850) that shows strange behaviour when booting. When I switch it on it won't boot but if you reset or power down and up again it will boot.
Anyone have a clue for me?
me...
Sounds like the power supply. Do you have a spare you can test with?
you...
Nice call. I missed some trading opportunities the last few days. I'm still holding strong in shares for now. I think we'll be seeing 40s soon.
me...
Yeah, got lucky. Perfect confluence of events. Had a wad of short term cash just sitting there and I was looking for a spot to buy some short term AMD. The ML support of $35.20 seemed to guarantee no lower price until Friday at the earliest. Huge volumes and extreme volatility related to options expiration, earnings and macro events should be slowing down some. We could use some more recognition by the market demigods of just how far AMD has come, but that should be more and more apparent as the quarter progresses. Like many others I see $40 in AMD's soon to be future so this should be a hold for awhile.
Trouble is this is short-term money and I have to sell at some point so that I'll have some cash available when the next buying opportunity comes along. Being a total long is like watching paint dry, you have to do something else to keep sane.
you...
It is way too easy to slant benchmarking results these days.
me..
I hear you. But we both know that AAPL wouldn't stoop to such tactics don't we?
you...
Yeah, nice bounce today. You could always short Apple. Which I did. The bad news on Core Duo shipments, software readiness
and performance issues could toss Apple into the Intel camp
when it comes to stock performance.
me...
I don't follow AAPL that much. When did you set up the short? They have an impressive chart except for lately. All I know is that every teenager, and quite a few adults, I know have at least one IPOD. But I'm sure your looking at the bigger picture wondering how well this INTC marriage is going to go?
Groan, I should have bought more.
Picked up 5k shares this morning at 35.21. Probably going to turn out to be a short term trade.
From the Flenkenstein INTC article...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P139886.asp
Bill...
Maybe they just feel duped by the yarn that Intel has been spinning about what its problems are -- in an attempt to mask the real ones -- so now they feel like they can't trust management. Thus, like lovers scorned, they've downgraded the stock.
I believe it was a variation on that theme last Tuesday that drove Merrill's Joe Osha to downgrade Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, news, msgs) (prior to Intel's quarterly update). He managed to miss AMD's transition, I assume, because he was blinded by Intel -- an example of loving a loser and refusing to like the winner.
Me...
Looks like everyone is starting to get the message. Nothing like kicking the king when he's down. About time, and sorely needed. Problems at INTC are only going to get worse for quite awhile.
you...
So Bobbsy you read the statesman alot?
me...
I read a lot of things. Did you read the article? It wasn't all pro AMD.
Changing Opinions of AMD
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/technology/01/22amd.html
Kevin Rottinghaus with FTN Midwest Securities Corp., however, predicts that Intel will be forced to play defense for most of the year.
"The story on these two companies is not going to change in the near term," Rottinghaus said last week. "AMD is going to continue to take share, and Intel is going to continue to struggle."
Other analysts note that Intel's recent problems, including scrapped chip projects and revamped product road maps, have shaken their confidence in the larger company's ability to precisely define technical targets and then hit them.
Them..
"Intel is not used to having to chase the competition," said Nathan Brookwood of Insight64 in Saratoga, Calif. "Normally, their competitors are way behind, sucking their exhaust. This (new competition with AMD) is really a very different picture. It is very difficult for a large company like Intel to do something quickly. It usually takes them two years to do complicated things."
The server segment of the processor business is AMD's key advantage, Brookwood said, and he doesn't see anything in Intel's immediate road map that will enable it to overtake AMD's advantage there.
more..
"We just have a different way of viewing things," Hester said. "Our philosophy is: If we build what the customer wants, we are going to be successful.
"We don't need to spend $500 million in advertising trying to convince them that what we are doing is right. It will be a natural fit instead of a forced fit."
Me...
Especially like that last line.
you...
I've also learned a few painful lessons but you do remember those.
me...
True, but you never get away from learning. I've managed, over the years, to incur some losses that dwarfed that first lesson, but still I've managed to do very well, handily outperforming the general market, almost from the beginning.
I've said it before, but I view risk very differently from most people and most of the market pundits. To me a CD is the most risky investment imaginable. There are always other things to invest in that pay better and have a lower risk when things like inflation and taxes are taken into consideration. Of course those investments, like AMD, require more work, (there is no free lunch) but then it sort of depends on what kind of investor you are, how confident you are of your abilities, and how much you like doing research
you...
What we are watching is the latest installment in the corporate life-cycle game. No matter how high they rise all companies eventually fall. They may not land on their swords immediately, but staying on top has proven an impossible task over and over again.
me...
Yeah, as I said things hardly ever turn out the same, but I guess it comes down to what you think a disaster for INTC is. Is it losing 30% of the market 40%, 50%? To me all those seem not only possible but also very likely.
It's not that I hate INTC, after all I made a great deal of money having held the stock for a very long time during the 80s and 90s. I can assure you that if AMD's and INTC's roles were reversed today I would still be in INTC. I'm just an investor with neither an INTC nor AMD axe to grind, really. What really pisses me off is the way INTC has been driven into the ground largely by incompetent management.
The problem with holding INTC right now is that nothing is working the way it used to. The game has shifted 180 degrees and until INTC adapts things are going to do nothing but get worse.
you...
Wow, did you buy shares in the East India Company too?
me...
Come on, I'm not that old. I was fortunate to have a father that got me interested in the stock market at a very young age. I bought my first stock at 16 in a company called Houston Fearless that was going to be headed by Noah Detrich, yeah him. Anyway my father bought a lot of the stuff at 3 and in a couple of weeks sold it at about $12. He obviously wanted me to sell also, but I decided to hold on. Well eventually the company went belly up and I lost the entire $800 I had earned working all summer. Turned out to be a very good lesson in the long run.
When one looks at AMD and INTC over the last 8 years or so the one thing that stands out is the quality of management at both companies. Without a doubt this has been the biggest factor in the sea change that has taken place in the prospects of both companies.
Starting with Jerry and continuing through Hector, in hindsight, there has been a virtually unbroken stream or very prescient decisions made. On the other hand looking at INTC one has to go back to Xerox and to a lesser extent IBM, back in the 70s to find technology companies that so dominated their industries and imploded as hard as INTC is about to.
Without a doubt the decisions made under Barrett's watch were some of the worst imaginable, bordering on corporate malfeasance. In particular the decision to offer illegal incentives after the initial success of the Athlon and the decision to try and replace the X86 architecture with the Itanium ISA are perhaps the most glaring examples of a morally corrupt management completely devoid of ideas.
What we are watching is the latest installment in the corporate life-cycle game. No matter how high they rise all companies eventually fall. They may not land on their swords immediately, but staying on top has proven an impossible task over and over again. What we're watching is just the initial phase in INTC's transformation. So far not much has happened, and not much will happen until events overtake the corporate mindset. From an AMD point of view this is good news as it ensures that INTC won't be able to adequately respond to AMD's challenge for some time. From an INTC point of view it just means that they will continue to fall further and further behind.
After 50+ years of playing the stock market this is all de-ja vu. Having said that though it’s worth noting that things are never exactly the same.
you...
They have a chance, something they never had before. The lawsuit apparently made all the difference in the world.
me...
Yeah, of all the things that have happened over the last 8 years, that has to rank right up there with INTC's decision to go with the Itanium ISA over X86 as the biggest things effecting AMD’s success. Up until the suit the Opteron and Athlon64 receptions had been lukewarm at best. With the suit the floodgates were suddenly opened. From that point of view whether AMD succeeds in court or not is much less important. Just having INTC's coercive and predatory practices restricted makes the suit worth while.
Not that there haven't been lots of other milestones. The Fab30, fab36 decisions, the melding with IBM in technology development, the move to SOI, the bringing onboard of the DEC guys, the commitment to the X86 ISA, getting the German commitment for fab30/36. All these things and much, much more have had direct consequences, but the 2 listed above are to me the most important events in the success AMD is now reaping.
you...
bobs10, IGP's can be quite acceptable since the nforce2 boards, I've got some too. If you start swapping components or something breaks you can fall back on the IGP. I like it best if they're passively cooled, no whine from the graphics card fan.
me...
Yeah, GPUs tend to make a lot of noise, more so than the CPU, and a lot more heat so that is a big advantage. The reviews I've read seem to indicate that unless you need 1080P the intergated graphics are enough. Besides which you don't have to use a slot on the mobo.
Like I said, I've more or less decided that this is going to be a work in progress that will likely never be done.
HTPC owners, NVDA drivers for 6000 and above.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29053
I've been thinking about buying one of the MSI-6150(K8NGM2-FID) integrated boards. I'm sort of mosying into the HTPC world one piece at a time. Originally I was just going to buy an MCE machine, but too many things are changing right now and will over 06 so I think I'll just creep into the HTPC world a bit at a time using some old junk I have laying around and knowing full well that I'll have to update later. Mostly getting tired of waiting and envious of friends setups even though what I've got is still pretty good. Besides, I want a new toy to play with, and I've earned it(Take that WBMW). All I need right now is soemthing rather basic with lots of storage that I can start loading up with DVDs and CDs. We already subscribe to netflix so creating a library will be easy and getting rid of all those previews and warnings would be nice besides getting rid of the CD/DVD clutter in the family room.
Having MPEG-4 through a driver update would be great even though I don't need 1080P just yet. One of the nice things about the 6150s is that you can upgrade by adding a GPU later, if needed, hopefully at a lower price than today.
you...
bobs10, we're vindicated for having held on to the stock for so long, that feels good.
Me..
I'll say; we've paid a high price for that loyality, but it's paying off in spades. There's nothing like winning a battle you've fought hard and long for.
A cursory glance
At AMD's excellent results seems to indicate a company in a fixed cost business running flat out. However, a deeper analysys reveals that the real reason is that INTC is FUBARed.
Things not to buy.
1) INTC will soon have NGA product competitive with AMD.
2) INTC is capacity constrained.
3) INTC has world class yields.
4) The move to 65nm is going much better than expected at INTC.
5) INTC will soon have its' chipset supply problems solved.
6) Platformization is the cure to all INTC's ills.
7) INTC is not a fatted pig ready for slaughter when compared to AMD.
8) The ASP disparity between AMD and INTC will not disappear.
9) AMD is going to remain capacity constrained.
10) Otellini has a plan for INTC that will revive INTC's fortunes.
11) Barrett was the best CEO INTC ever had, none of the decisions made under his term have anything to do with INTC's current problems.
12) etc. etc.
you...
bobs, from the CC, on capacity constraints
"we don´t believe we are capacity constrained"
"planning very tightly with our customers"
"executing well"
"we´re balancing things reasonably well"
"inventory levels fairly lean"
"not affected any customers in Q4, don´t plan to do that in 2006"
I think this is interesting...
me...
Yeah, AMD has obviously been doing a surperlative job with a difficult problem. I'm frankly amazed that they were able to kick out so many processors in q4. Given seasonality, and fab36 starting to come online things should improve some, but with the head of steam AMD now has and the dismal lineup INTC still has we should see another record quarter in q1.
Keith, that $.21 is somewhat of a red hering, not only because it's a one time event, but also it's basically a reduction of goodwill item with no cash significance. At least that's the way I read it.
yeah, not much to dislike in the financials or CC from an AMD point of view.
you...
bobs, I tend to agree with you but for slightly different reasons. Wall Street punishes a miss much more viciously then it rewards an upside surprise. Intel missed in Q4 and it is unlikely that they will want to miss again -- that is a recipe for the replacement of senior management.
me...
Yeah, considering INTC still has 80% of the market a price war INTC couldn't win would be pointless and would be like Otellini signing his own death warrent.
The big question is INTC's NGA and how competitive it's going to be. INTC desperately needs some home runs. If NGA doesn't provide them then it seems that some sort of other action will be required.
I'm beginning to understand why AMD brought up 90nm in fab36.
They must be getting phenomenal yields to have sold so many chips in q4, especially considering that the cubboard was already pretty bare after q3. It doesn't sound like things are going to improve much in q1 with the shortages continuing. God I love/hate AMD.
All I've got to say is finally. I knew if I waited long enough this day would happen again.
Jules2...
Well, I'm kind of in the same position in life and financially that you are, but making a buck and more importantly being right about a stock are things that help keep me going. God I love/hate the stock market.
you, quoting WBMW...
My strategy is to wait for the daze to clear and for hopes to be higher than the sun and moon. Then I'll buy some Jan 07 puts and sit back and wait.
me...
Well, I wish him the best but buying puts on AMD right now seems equivalent to betting the sun won't rise tomorrow. Frankly I have a very hard time trying to understand were some of the INTC pushers are coming from. I'll say one thing though, they sure have fertile imaginations.
you...
Hector said AMD had 15.3% market share up from 11 plus%, nice but not earth shattering,parts to be shiping from fab36 by the end of the quater, smells like a price war in the making.
me...
No price war, price propaganda for sure. INTC is in no shape to get into a price war with AMD right now having neither a competitive line-up nor the cost structure AMD has.
In fact a bloated cost structure is one of INTC's biggest problems. It's part of the culture that INTC solves problems by tossing money and personnel at problems. Personally, I've never liked the approach, but it is so ingrained in INTC culture that only the failure of NGA will be enough to bring about needed change.
Given that NGA failure, if it occurs, will only become apparent in 07 it's highly unlikely that any significant changes will be implemented until then that would improve INTC's cost structure.
In the meantime AMD is going to have a romp in the park and there is little INTC can do about it. The picture for INTC only gets darker from here out.
Thanks, I'll take a look.
What I really want to know is whether WBMW still thinks INTC will be worth more on a per share basis than AMD by year end? I'm waiting with baited breath(maybe anchovies?)
you...
everyone is listening to cc...
me...
I find it's more informative to read what is said and listen later, but then that's just me. I'll just get some lunch and comeback later.
Jules2
Just wondering if anyone on this board knows that AMD just posted blow-out earnings. I guess everyone is above caring about making money?
I'm even happier with my earnings strategy now.
As I said I didn't want to get into a price chase after earnings. Currently the last price traded after hours was $37.48, exceeding the previous five year high.
Interesting article, especially the vector vs X86 advantages. McCalpin sounds like an interesting person.
CJ thanks. Always find it interesting to discover how interrelated everything is.
CJ what does a PHD in Physical Oceanography have to do with bandwidth? Just curious.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29067
Whatever happened to the calm before the storm?
Earnings are always volatile, but this one has been a walk thru a fire-pit. Another day of huge volume and a price direction reversal, for AMD. As I expected going into earnings a nimble person could have done very well over the last few days. However, from my point of view I probably wouldn't have changed anything considering the risk of having to chase AMD if earnings perform the coup de gras I expect. There are just too many things going on right now with AMD clearly exerting a very disrupting influence on the entire silicon industry. Turning points are always volatile with lots of very opposing opinions, but it is starting to look like the market is awakening to the notion that AMD might have more than a little to do with INTC's problems. Hopefully todays earnings will reinforce that train of thought.
you...
Not at all, since this has been a frequent discussion on these boards. AMD can provide up to a fifth of the world's CPUs from one 200mm factory, while Intel can provide four fifths from their three 300mm factories. Of course, that's the over-simplified version. The reality is that average die sizes make a difference, as well as product mixes, test wafer percentage, etc. For example, with an ASP that's still in the range of $100, do you expect AMD is selling more large die X2 processors, or more small die Semprons? Also, keep in mind that the desktop market is the most relevant when you are trying to guess at volumes. AMD's share of the mobile and server markets, combined with the relative sizes of these markets, means they only contribute in a minor way to AMD's overall average output.
me...
Sounds like you believe INTC is really restricted to 3 300mm plants?
Hard to tell where the AMD shortages are most pronounced, but I know Semprons have been in short supply, as have Athlons of all sorts, to a lesser degree. The only things that don't seem to be in shortage are the server chips and the laptop chips, which fits into AMD's upside down pyramid.
As far as the mobile and server markets go, any increase in either of these markets is manna for AMD. These are the cash cows of the PC market that AMD is, albeit slowly, making continued progress in those areas.
Realistically, it has been very difficult for AMD to take more than 1 to 1.5% market share a quarter given AMD's lack of capacity. In fact, given the way the market has been growing, it's surprising that AMD has been able to take any market share from INTC. With the capacity situation now moving into abeyance we should be getting a more accurate indication, over the course of 06, as to what the true demand for AMD product is.
you...
While it is possible that more capacity could open new opportunities for AMD (that were closed before), the only time in recent history (5 years), the only time when AMD was sold out was Q4 2005.
me...
I don't know about that. For a couple of quarters before AMD was claiming that they were producing flat out and the inventory wasn't increasing.
Yeah, as I've been posting for the last couple of years I expected more visible evidence of shortages in q305. To me, what put off the recognition of the shortage situation was the surprising way AMD was able to increase production through a near perfect move to 90nm, and then the later "E" rev and DSL changes. The latter things seemed to have helped yields as well as bins.
It's worth remembering that shortages come in at least a couple of flavors. Granted, in q405 we saw lots of indications that AMD could have sold more chips had they been available. However, the more insidious type of shortage is the "what might have been” kind of shortage where projects didn't get done because AMD couldn't guarantee supply.
I suspect more that just a little of the additional capacity coming online will be used to resurrect projects that were put on hold. To me this is a most exciting area, as AMD now has the room to play around with new products and further differentiate itself from INTC. In particular I'm thinking about low capacity, low power X86 based chips. I expect AMD to be thinking more and more outside the PC box.
you...
What are you saying? That capacity issues in Q4 2005 are somehow indicating that Intel isn't ramping their 65nm plants well enough? I'd be surprised if 65nm accounted for more than a couple percent of Intel's production last quarter. This quarter, it will be more, but there hasn't been any data on this yet. I expect to hear more later today at the earnings conference.
me...
Everything I've been reading seems to indicate that INTC still has a couple of quarters left before the shortage situation is taken care of. Still I find it hard to correlate shortages of any sort at INTC with all the capacity they have and the less than impressive growth INTC has been demonstrating. To me anyway, something is clearly amiss. Especially, when one compares what is coming out of AMD's sole processing plant at 90nm and 200mm. Doesn't any of this strike you as being in the slightest way odd?
you...
It is probably at least double. But remember you get 2.25 the number of chips per wafer. So this is an estimate for may be 3 times the number of chips.
me...
Yeah, that was about what I was thinking. Current 06 AMD estimates of 50m chips don't seem to jive with that purchase ageement. If it's not DELL coming onboard then one is left with either lots of new products coming online, new OEMs being added, or big increases in purchases from current OEMs. It's probably some combination of all of the above, and maybe DELL also. In any case 06 demand will be a reflection of AMD's 05 improved situation and the added fab36 capacity. INTC has, at the least, a couple of very lean quarters to look forward to, probably more.