Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

you...

Not at all, since this has been a frequent discussion on these boards. AMD can provide up to a fifth of the world's CPUs from one 200mm factory, while Intel can provide four fifths from their three 300mm factories. Of course, that's the over-simplified version. The reality is that average die sizes make a difference, as well as product mixes, test wafer percentage, etc. For example, with an ASP that's still in the range of $100, do you expect AMD is selling more large die X2 processors, or more small die Semprons? Also, keep in mind that the desktop market is the most relevant when you are trying to guess at volumes. AMD's share of the mobile and server markets, combined with the relative sizes of these markets, means they only contribute in a minor way to AMD's overall average output.

me...

Sounds like you believe INTC is really restricted to 3 300mm plants?

Hard to tell where the AMD shortages are most pronounced, but I know Semprons have been in short supply, as have Athlons of all sorts, to a lesser degree. The only things that don't seem to be in shortage are the server chips and the laptop chips, which fits into AMD's upside down pyramid.

As far as the mobile and server markets go, any increase in either of these markets is manna for AMD. These are the cash cows of the PC market that AMD is, albeit slowly, making continued progress in those areas.

Realistically, it has been very difficult for AMD to take more than 1 to 1.5% market share a quarter given AMD's lack of capacity. In fact, given the way the market has been growing, it's surprising that AMD has been able to take any market share from INTC. With the capacity situation now moving into abeyance we should be getting a more accurate indication, over the course of 06, as to what the true demand for AMD product is.