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Careful, wiping with that might leave a rash.
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No one knows if things are going well or not. We only hear something if they poke their heads out and ask a question or if they're done deliberating.
This stock has always done poorly on low volume. And volume is fairly dead right now. I expect it to tread water and maybe edge down a bit. Then if the jury takes what is considered to be a lengthy period the PPS should prob edge up a bit. But right now I'd say most consider this to be about the right level.
I think what the slides show about revenue increase to 40% make help the jury to award the full damages requested by Vrng... but I truly doubt they'd award more than requested.
But one can hope...
Same for me. Skin in the game but didn't load up.
They live on the coast. They probably have a lot of their own cleanup to do.
I'm a long...
if vrng loses, maybe in six months it's worth almost $3 or $2 plus, but not anytime soon.
I especially like that google docs is being used here...
Longer sounds better, but I don't think enough time ha gone by yet to start thinking more positive.
But hopeful
Now, every time I see GLTY... I immediately think Guilty!!!
Longer deliberation is generally better. Hopefully it means that they are having to go through all the questions, past infringement and invalidity and into damage award.
But if they come back again and ask about #1 again...
tweet from percyway @percyview
percyview ?@percyview
As of 11:36, Jury still discussing
No, any infringement is enough to side with vrng. From everything I read... if any part is found to be infringed upon, then it's infringement. They don't have to see infringement in every claim, just infringement in even only one claim is still infringement. A couple of the recent articles talked about that.
Vrng didn'y seek injunction. And as a non practicing entity they doubtful could get it. Some have said before that Msft or other could buy vrng and seek it. But not within the time frame of the jury coming back with a verdict.
I agree in theory, but I just find it hard to trust this judge now. The way that laches ruling came out just smelled...
Could be anytime
Don't become married to any stock play, especially one you've lost money in. If you're down on this venture and feel that you need to make that money back here on the verdict... please make the realization that's not how good investing happens. And as a poker enthusiast I'll also say... that's not even how good poker happens.
The reward vs risk ratio has lowered significantly from two days ago. Read the articles from the last two days, they talk to several hurdles that have to be overcome for profits to occur.
- patents could be ruled invalidated
- jury could rule no infringement
- jury could be hung (retrial)
- jury could rule lump sum instead on ongoing royalty
- jury could rule in favor of Vrng but award a low amount
- jury could easily award a middle amount, PPS might still be at risk
- jury could award (70-100%) of full amount... Yay!!!!!!
---> but even with full past damages, the opportunity for investor profits truly depends on the judge's ruling on future royalties. And the judge could take another week to announce future royalties.
- So after all the hurdles above, the judge then rules on future royalties. Remember - When most everything else was going in our favor, this is the judge that made the laches ruling that screwed Vrng. Even the regular lawyers on this board were somewhat bewildered by that. If the judge is willing to somewhat risk his credibility to seemingly put the screws to Vrng. Then maybe we shouldn't be going allin waiting for this same man to turn around and announce maximum future royalties.
- judge could rule low % royalities (0.5% - 1.0%)
- judge could easily rule middle % royalties (2.0% - 2.5%)
- judge could rule high/full % royalties (3.0% - 3.5%) Yay!!!!!!
So - hopefully through all the hurdles we've made it to near full past damages (~$70 mil+) and near full future royalties ($250 mil+) Yay!!!!!! And we have profits Yay!!!!!! Hopefully higher awards and hopefully even more profits Yay!!!!!! If we really get there.
Of course after all that... there will probably be an appeal that could easily change the landscape and require a whole new trial. This roller coaster has already been exhausting enough, but fortunately for most investors any potential appeal is a future poker game that may or may not be attended by us. It may sound like goodness for Vrng... but most of us hadn't originally planned on marrying our brokerage accounts to this one stock for an extended period.
- The appeal, and the new trial
My point is two-fold.
- Don't become married to any one investment. Especially one that you've lost money in and now offers only lowered expectations but at substantial risk.
- There are several other good quality potential investments out there coming off of double bottoms right now. And we're entering a time of the year when the market on average tends to swing upwards. Think about how your remaining mulla could best serve you, and the answer may be that it would best serve you somewhere else.
Note: I have been long this stock, but have recently minimized my exposure. And I'm now having to ask myself if the current reward scenario is worth the current set of risks... especially when you consider other looming investments that could be bearing better fruit.
YOU of course have to make the decisions that are best for you.
I thought one of Mike's updates said 5:30pm
Do future royalties get announced today?
has Mike himself actually posted, or just others talking about him?
It should prob be printing between $2.80 and $3 if we are very close to deliberations. Vrng is still favored to win and a win shoild prob be higher than where we are now.
altucher post on YMB
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/;_ylt=AkRezNg2p5FS3qc_Kf4FeezeAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTFpc2ozZThwBG1pdANNZXNzYWdlIEJvYXJkcyB3aWRnZXQEcG9zAzYEc2VjA01lZGlhTXNnQm9hcmRz;_ylg=X3oDMTFlamZvM2ZlBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc2VjdGlvbnM-;_ylv=3?&bn=335d0cab-c8c2-325a-b1c7-5bd038d7c88f&tid=1351777812166-f5df8e75-dc86-4ab6-8e27-d65b7fbd5f35&tls=la%2Cd%2C0
I might outline this in an article but...
By altucher . 9 minutes ago . Permalink
Several points I want to make. Do a sum of the parts here:
A) what is the value of the GOOG lawsuit if they win. Its still a big number
B) what is the value of potential suits against all GOOG customers
C) what is the value of a lawsuit against MSFT
D) what is the value of the $50mm in cash (its not $50mm)
E) what is the value of the NOK patents. I outlined this in a prior article. For all of those people who seem to think i've gone "radio silent" I've actally outlined the value of VRNG in a total loss, which has not happened here
Finally, I wrote about VRNG on April 1. For 200 straight days (or however many) people were able to trade around the position, take profits, do whatever they wanted. Now everyone wants to sling insults. Everyone needs to grow up and take responsibility. Meanwhile, Do a sum of the parts as outlined above and come to your conclusions as to what this is worth. Be smart about this and do the work. When case is over I'll probably write something up.
Anywhere near $1.50 or $2 and I'd have to buy more pre-verdict. Anywhere near $3.50 or $4 and I'd prob sell until just before pre-verdict, then weigh whether to buy more then.
ok, so why is this up more than a little this morning?
Could the halt have been requested by Vrng due to the extreme volatility combined with jurors about to start deliberating?
What a wild ride!!!
My butt is gonna need a mint after that last false rumor / raid fiasco.
$3.91... wtf ?
last I heard bball covered and went long
A question about Short interest.
The setup:
In a regular stock, a high percent of short interest would be indicative that many believe the PPS will move down, and/or it could be signs of mass shorters trying to drive the PPS down.
But in a stock like Vrng on the verge of a major binary event... I'd have to assume that some percentage believe Goog will win, or the Vrng award will be tiny. If say 20-25% somehow believe Goog will fair well and 75-80% believe Vrng will fair well...
The question:
Wouldn't having a fairly large short interest of say 10-25% just be a normal amount of short interest for a stock on the verge of a binary event? Not really considered an overly large amount of short interest considering a binary event is quickly coming and some believe Goog will fair better.
Also - short interest is a percent of the total stock. But doesn't include warrants n such. But this stock has a very high percent of warrants n such. And if they were considered in the equation... the percent of short interest would be fairly lower.
Sure, but the Mark Twain wording is funnier.
Basketball buckethead should be played by gilbert gottfried
Always argumentative, his reasoning never makes sense, and annoying to the point that you just have to tune him out.
I think it's derived from a Mark Twain quote
“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”
? Mark Twain
The verdict must be unanimous. See the SteveKimLaw article about Investors' Trial FAQ.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/957851-vringo-vs-google-investors-trial-faq?source=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0
That may seem like it could be a concern, but hung juries are rare for these type cases. Not like a murder trial where jurors can get wildly conflicted about possibly sentencing the innocent, or releasing the guilty.
So basketcase now says vringo will win!!!
I don't think it will hit $5. Here is where longs can't refute. Vrng can't sue for WI, no analyst has or newspaper has been positive with case, they will not receive royalties and will receive a small settlement . Upside $1, downside $4
Nokia patents are worthless!!
New article: Vringo Vs. Google: Investors' Trial FAQ
http://seekingalpha.com/article/957851-vringo-vs-google-investors-trial-faq?source=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0
by SteveKimLaw
Disclosure: I am long VRNG. (More...)
With the Vringo (VRNG) vs. Google (GOOG) trial winding down, there are numerous very significant questions being posed by investors and others who are monitoring the pending outcome. While most Seeking Alpha readers have developed a set of criteria for analyzing a security's purchase to their comfort level, almost all of us don't have a context for analyzing litigation of the type that Vringo and Google are undergoing. In my view, the numerous questions out there are representative of investors' need for hard (and sometimes basic) information about the litigation, so that they can make as informed investment decisions as possible. With this in mind, I have developed a FAQ to address some of these questions. I am also aware that there are other lawyers out there following this stock. By all means, if you disagree with my thoughts, please add your viewpoint to the conversation by commenting. More informed views only add to the investors' database.
Where are we in the trial process?
Vringo has completed its case in chief, and we are in Google's side of the case. When Court recessed on Friday, October 26, Google's damages expert, Dr. Ugone, was on the stand. Vringo will have an opportunity to cross-examine him on Monday morning. It appears that Dr. Ugone will be Google's final witness, and that they will rest their case on Monday. After that, Vringo will call its final witness, Dr. Jaime Carbonell, as a rebuttal witness, on the issue of invalidity.
When will trial end?
My best guess is that the evidence will be closed on Monday. If this plays out, then I would guess that Judge Jackson would schedule closing arguments for Tuesday morning, following which Judge Jackson will instruct the jury as to the law to be applied in this case. Deliberations would then begin as early as Tuesday morning or afternoon. Nobody knows how long the jury will deliberate, but in any event, I would think we will get a verdict before the end of next week.
Does the jury verdict have to be unanimous?
Yes. The jurors need to reach unanimous verdict.
What are the burdens of proof?
There are two different burdens of proof at issue in this case.
1. Preponderance of the Evidence. Vringo bears the burden of proving infringement, and the amount of damages to be awarded, by a preponderance of the evidence. Google and the other Defendants bear the burden of proving their affirmative defenses (such as laches) by a preponderance of the evidence. "Preponderance of the evidence" means that the party who bears the burden of proof must demonstrate to the jury that their version of the facts is more likely than not. Lawyers commonly explain to juries that this is not a high burden, such that even if there is a lot o evidence on both sides, if 51% of the evidence favors the plaintiff, and 49% favors the defendant, then this constitutes a preponderance of the evidence.
2. Clear and Convincing Evidence. Google bears the burden of proving its claim that the patents are invalid by clear and convincing evidence. Clear and convincing evidence is the most stringent burden of proof that is applied in civil cases. To meet the requirement for clear and convincing evidence requirement, the jury must have a "firm belief or conviction" after hearing the evidence, that the patents are invalid.
If Vringo Wins, Can the Judge Award Treble Damages?
I see a lot of "hope" out there that this could still turn into a treble damage case, but I think the handwriting is pretty objectively on the wall on this one. Enhanced damages (which can include treble damages) become available in an infringement where the plaintiff proves that the defendant willful infringed on its patent claims.
Consider that Vringo did not even allege willful infringement or ask for treble damages in its complaint, which should tell you what they really feel about that issue. Moreover, Judge Jackson issued a pretrial order excluding any evidence of willful infringement in this case, based on the fact that Vringo never claimed it.
If Vringo Wins, Can They Get an Injunction Against Google?
Highly unlikely. Here again, Vringo has not asked for injunctive relief in their Complaint. This means that Vringo has not even asserted a claim in this case for an injunction to stop Google from infringing on their patents. There are two reasons for this: (1) As a non-practicing entity, there is very little chance that a Court would grant an injunction to stop Google from using patented technology that Vringo is not using; and (2) Vringo does not want Google to stop using the technology, they would like them to continue using it, but under a license/royalty agreement that would allow Vringo to be paid for such use.
What Can Vringo Recover In This Case?
Vringo has requested an award of past royalties in the sum of $493 million. If the jury finds that Google infringed, it can award a reasonable sum of damages, but not less than a reasonable royalty amount. In addition to past royalties, it would then fall to Judge Jackson to determine and award a reasonable future royalty amount. Vringo can also ask Judge Jackson to award it prejudgment interest on the past sums, as well as all or a portion of its attorney's fees and costs incurred in this enforcement action.
Can the Losing Party File an Appeal?
Yes, the losing party can file an appeal. An appeal must generally be filed within 30 days of the entry of Judge Jackson's entry of judgment. Judgment for the prevailing party will be entered at a later date after the jury verdict is announced.
My guess is that win or lose, the stock will make a brisk move regardless of any party's announcement of an intent to appeal.
I'm Interested, But Late Getting Here. What Can I Read To Catch Up On The Issues In This Case?
James Altucher: "Why Google Might Be Going to $0"
James Altucher: "Google vs. Vringo: Vringo Delivers a Knockout In Round One"
James Altucher: "Vringo: What Has Happened And What I Think Will Happen"
John Ford: "Google Settlement Could Drive Vringo Shares Above $30"
Stevekimlaw: "Vringo vs. Google: Staying Focused Amid The Din"
James Altucher: "What Is Vringo Worth?"
Stevekimlaw: Seeking Alpha Instablog, for daily trial updates
Actually, few expect a settlement over the weekend. Goog hasn't settled yet any weekend prior, so they once again prob won't this weekend, and people know that. So the expectation is probably no news over the weekend. And "no news" shouldn't matter to the share price on Monday.
On Monday, we are just expecting to be way way way ahead vs Goog.
Does the stock get halted before the verdict is read? Or when the PPS begins to move sharply? Does anyone here know about this?
There was a ymb posted about if someone were in the courtroom and heard the verdict, could they race out and do something about it before the stock got halted. Like maybe text or email a select group.
Question: Let's say vrng wins, I assume the jury then announces (right away) the amount awarded for past damages. Please correct me if you think the amount wouldn't be given right away.
Hopefully it's the full amount of past damages.
When does the judge make the decision about future royalties and the amount awarded? Would this be expected to happen immediately after the jury announces it's findings? Or would this be expected to occur at a later time or date?
Just wondering what you guys think...
That reporter is the Mike guy that's working with PercyWay. Percy isn't attending anymore, Mike is. Donations to th ewordpress site are supposed to help cover Mike's costs.
you are correct. I was mistaken.
Please see:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80857468