Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Paul, the fact that PPHM has waited until the last moment makes me think they have something.
If Nasdaq said NO, one might consider that PPHM would come right out then and there with the RS.
Could they be giving time for others to get in or "top off" what they have?
Not sure. But the timing seems unusual, to say the least.
If an RS occurs, be CAREFUL. Great news could follow, as has been discussed here recently.
Potential buyers need a higher price point to deal with. (Remember the corresponding outstanding share count drops considerably).
Lytle can then use authorized shares to maintain control. Many different scenarios have been hashed out recently.
You must keep in mind that an RS might be the very path to partnership, and thus the WORST time to sell.
We're just not privy to very much at all.
You are divesting blind, which I don't like. You don't know what's in the cards, even after an RS.
Think about it. I hope you've been selling 1 share a day. LOL
Take care, man
Joe Six Pack
Wook, I don't think PPHM is going to wait until Friday.
RS? Big news.
Partnership? Big news.
Buyout? Big news.
Probably tomorrow.
Funny how the Board seems really quiet today. Folks lurking in the wings, quietly watching.
Good luck,
Joe Six
Well, PW, under your scenario, they would have to announce the RS on Monday, July 10, during trading hours, to ensure a 1+ dollar close on that day.
They couldn't announce after hours, as you mention, because they wouldn't be over a dollar at that point, and that day wouldn't count towards the 10.
In any case, we should have news today or tomorrow.
Good luck,
Joe Six Pack
North, it's just a little news blurb about stock action last week
Big news later today or tomorrow.
Best,
Joe Six
PPHM buyout potential
Let's say AZN/GILD/JNJ or RHBBY buys PPHM for:
(with 333 million shares outstanding)
$10B = $30 pps
$15B = $45 pps
$20B = $60 pps
In my view, this sort of buyout would occur only AFTER the NCCN trials, when Bavi is shown to triple the responder footprint for anti-PD1 Mabs. This ability would be extremely valuable to Big Pharma, and would likely set off a war for PS blockade and its tumor microenvironment conditioning effects.
These effects include a 40% reduction in MDSCs, repolarization of immunosuppressive M2 macrophages back to M1 macrophages, electromagnetic charge restoration to the phospholipid bilayer, thereby enabling docking of multiple cytokines and immunostimulatory proteins back onto the cell membrane (impossible with unmasked PS extroversion.)
This synergy reconditions the tumor microenvironment back to a Th1 orientation, prompting massive increases in interferon-gamma, CD8, and natural killer cells. In short, an assassin's immune system. Throw in Sunrise-derived biomarkers to cherry-pick the patient population destined to respond, and Big Pharma will go berserk over the results.
Obviously, with an RS, the pps would have to be much higher to give the similar multiples, given the 3-7 fold reduction in outstanding shares.
e.g.
(with 50 million shares outstanding)
$10B = $200
$15B = $300
$20B = $400
This is clearly ICPT territory. You get the right drug that Big Pharma wants, and all bets are off. The drug can go from $30 to $500 in ten days.
Best to all, especially 9/24/2012 (Black Monday) longs,
Joe Six Pack
TS III can't have insider info on an imminent deal
That's illegal. He knows that.
So he's bought over months and months because he clearly believes in SOMETHING, of that there is no doubt.
I do think Ronin does better BEFORE the RS, and in fact, planned it that way. If the PPS takes off with some deal, (and that remains a distinct possibility), Ronin will be able to buy LESS due to an accelerating stock price.
OK, the PPS today is $0.60. Let's say for PPHM, with an exosome partnership and licensing, as well as upfront cash and milestone payments, the PPS goes to $4.57
Would Ronin be happy buying at $4.57 pps? Of course not. Too much capital outlay. Liquidity applies to individuals as well RC. Better to back up the truck at ultra-low rates. Which TS III has done.
Best,
Joe Six
The 6/29/2017 Ronin purchase was very important
Why buy shares at the last possible moment? Many administrative tasks are required to submit a 13-D, so 6/29/2017 was just about the last possible chance to submit one. Next week, forget it.
Ronin may very well be max'ing out before news. TSIII is in constant contact with PPHM execs, so he has a better idea about what's coming.
The extended buying spree over months and months is to dispel any notions of insider trading. Ronin has been buying for months. They haven't made any huge profits....
Yet.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
We'll be in the $0.70s today because
people may think news will come Monday.
Best,
Joe
Paul, it pains me to see you do this
If an RS happens, in my view, it will all shake out anyway.
But if PPHM announces an exosome partnership tomorrow or next week, you'll be on the outside looking in.
I would not like that for you, after holding patiently for so long.
What's changed with the science? Don't like the BOD? See my previous post. I really think it's the nature of the nasty biotech space more than anything.
Good Luck, and don't sell too much
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Very reasonable post, CP, and definitely needed
PPHM is not Gilead, it's not McDonalds, and it's not the Altria Group.
But the stock is often compared to such companies. "No ROI, lagging PPS, BOD is terrible" etc. I understand these emotions, because money is involved.
Money provokes strong emotions.
But this is biotech. You sign up for it and you wait.
My brother says, "Only in the U.S. does instant gratification take too long."
We need to be patient and let the process work itself out. In my view, PS blockade will make billions for the Big Pharma anti-xyz'ers by tripling their responder footprint. That's good news for us.
But it's not going to happen overnight with the dynamics of the emerging I/O 2.0 combo paradigm.
A number of folks say they've been holding for 25+ years, and I respect that, but memories can be short.
Our understanding of Bavi has changed completely over the years. Initially, for me in 2011, I saw it only as very good lung cancer drug. Immunotherapy was but a whisper. We never talked about it on the Board.
But slowly and surely, the tide turned in our favor. And there's little indication that it won't continue turning in our favor.
The process is slow, I'm the first to agree. But good (new) things that weren't around for long-time investors years ago and now much closer to the corner.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
KT, one out of four PSA tests showing cancer means that 750,000 men who have an abnormal PSA are in danger of being unnecessarily treated with often serious side effects, while 250,000 men are diagnosed with cancer that may or may not be treated, depending on their age, or who may have been diagnosed another way, such as DRE.
The PSA is a screening test, and not a very good one.
One out of every 6-7 tests is a false NEGATIVE. You stated these were rare, and that is flat out wrong. 15% of men with outright prostate cancer have a NORMAL PSA.
Check it:
15% of prostate cancer men have normal PSA
Can some men benefit from the test? Absolutely. The men above with prostate cancer and a normal PSA could benefit from SERIAL checks of PSA (which is therefore more of a monitoring test, than a screening test), African-American men, young men with severe urinary symptoms, or other lower urinary tract symtoms, unexpected ED, strong family history, and abnormal prostate DRE, are all good examples.
Did you know that PSA naturally rises in all men as they age?
And that men over 75 should not be screened? (they'll die of something else first.)
Screening tests need to be very carefully chosen because they are applied to millions of people. The Pap smear is a very good example of an excellent screening test. It is sensitive, it is specific, and it doesn't have significant harms with its application (other than the discomfort of the Pap smear itself.)
It seems you are committed to the test because it's the best we've got. I can understand that sentiment. However, that offers less consolation to the overdiagnosed, overtreated, and subsequently harmed millions of men. They are left to suffer because of the shortcomings of the screen.
"First do no harm"
Best,
Joe Six
Nixon launched the "war on cancer" in 1971
46 years later, the results aren't looking so good. More cancer than ever. More deaths than ever. Lifestyles worse than ever. Obesity worse than ever.
Cancer soon to surpass heart disease as #1 cause of death.
Why?
I appreciate optimism, but we can't get ahead of ourselves, thinking "early detection" will solve everything.
It won't. It will help, for sure, but so many factors go into cancer (mostly lifestyle), optimism should be moderate.
Best,
Joe
Keep, thanks for the comment; PSA testing has pretty much fallen out of favor, though.
check it:
PSA: just as much harm as benefit
When we're trying to come up with a good screening test for millions of people, anecdotal evidence should be avoided.
Everyone has a second cousin's great grandmother who was saved by a mammogram. Unfortunately, millions of other women are on the agonizing receiving end of a false positive, or worse, a false cancer diagnosis, with chemo, radiation, and surgery to boot. All for a cancer they never had.
PSA is similar. For every third cousin's grandfather who is saved by a PSA, millions undergo unnecessary biopsy and subsequent erectile dysfunction, incontinence, and pain.
Anecdotes have no place when you're involving millions of people.
My point with PPHM's vesicular exosome test is more nuanced. Yes, it certainly has benefits, and if you re-read my post, you'll see I support early detection multiple times, but early screening doesn't guarantee anything.
What if it means people get chemo earlier? OK, they'll probably just die earlier.
What about lifestyle changes? Can people REALLY change? Yes, if they're scared enough. Maybe PS exosomes can provide that fear.
Be careful what you wish for with modern medicine. You'll probably get it.
Best,
Joe Six
Wook, you're reading the study results exactly wrong.
The BMJ study sought to find out if detecting cancers that were TOO SMALL to feel (meaning seen only on mammogram), made any difference in mortality.
It didn't.
Remember, when choosing a screening test for millions of people, anecdotal evidence has no place.
"My third cousin's wife's mother was saved by a mammogram" doesn't enter into the equation when millions of other women undergo the agony of false positives or worse - unnecessary surgery, chemo, and radiation of a breast cancer they never actually had.
Best, Joe
JJ, your seat belt analogy is PREVENTION, not detection.
Putting your seatbelt on cannot detect when someone might hit your car.
It can help PREVENT injury, though, which is exactly my point. Prevention of cancer through avoidance of modern lifestyles is what will bring cancer incidence and prevalence down, not a screening test.
If you read my post carefully, you will see that I am very much in favor of early detection. If a positive PPHM exosome test can shock people into changing their lifestyles, then it's a good thing, indeed.
Best,
Joe
Wook, mammograms are FAR more likely to cause harm than benefit
Early detection makes NO difference.
(From the same BMJ study - 90,000 women over 25 years!):
Wild, cancer is a survival mechanism
Yes it is. It's a messenger. It tells the person who has it,
"You can't go on this way."
"You can't go on living like this."
Early detection, though a wonderful concept, and one I'm fully behind (especially for PPHM's PS vesicular exosome blood test), does have its limitations.
Witness mammograms. A bad bill of goods sold to a gullible public. For "early" detection. There's only one problem. They do more harm than good.
Switzerland got rid of them a few years ago. Other countries will ultimately bag this "early detection" test.
Check it:
Jake, the studies showing how PS blockade may triple the anti-PD1 footprint doesn't have anything to do with the BOD.
The Brekken studies are there.
Look, the only way you make money in this world is to have something that other people value.
That's it. There is no other way.
Best,
Joe Six
Nice post, east coast and I agree
It's a good reminder that the man behind Ronin (Stafford III) is a Monoclonal Ab guy. If you're a PPHM stockholder, you're a Monoclonal Ab guy, too.
I agree that JS III is most likely after a seat at the table. I think he's interested in helping monetize the pipeline and I don't think, frankly, he'll get much opposition from the present BOD. PPHM has advanced enough already that it needs more help.
Many here will disagree with that, but we're moving toward profitability in 12 months, and the game is getting more complex with the forthcoming NCCN trials. PPHM would benefit from his years at Xencor, where he really helped.
It could be a long term play, certainly, but I can't help thinking that even if an RS occurs, some serious move could occur afterwards.
Geo stated that maybe Dart and Stafford could take the company private after the RS. Hadn't thought of that, but it seems remote.
More interesting is Stafford's validation of PPHM science with cold, hard cash. TUTES often can't buy in without a $5 base, so that will come if an RS does occur.
I guess the question is this: let's say you have 49,000 shares of PPHM at 0.58 which = $28240. Post-RS, you have 7,000 shares at 4.06 which = $28240.
But now, the "July Surprise" is announced which drives the pps to $19.47. Now you have $136,290. Three months later, the pps is $37.89, which gives you $265,020. The pre-RS pps would have been $5.40 to give you this same amount. Meaning, we would have completely recovered from the September 2012 Black Monday, even post-RS.
But we're not finished yet. With a nice base in place, the big Pharma boys can go to their stockholders and say, "Look, the PPHM Bavi business triples our responder footprint. We need to finally bite the bullet and buy this company before those bastards at Gilead get into this."
Now remember, outstanding shares are NOT 330 million as they are now. No, they're 47 million. (We're soon profitable, so the ATM runs, but not too much. Make outstanding shares 50 million.) So an offer nicely north of Gilead's Manhasset 12B offer, let's say 19B, appears. OK, under those terms, each share now comes in at $380 flat.
Take the post-RS 7,000 shares mentioned above, and the forlorn post-RS shareholder takes home $2.66M.
In essense, PPHM becomes the new Intercept stock. Why? Because it triples the damn responder anti-PD1 footprint, that's why.
The point remains that if Bavi can make Big Pharma billions more by conditioning the tumor enviroment for anti-XYZers, we have nothing to worry about, whatever may happen in the next 2 weeks.
Best to all, (especially frustrated longs)
Joe Six Pack
N40K, I couldn't find much on Stafford's background
but I really like his 18 years at a very successful monoclonal Ab firm, Xencor.
That's a good enough resume for me.
Why he's thrown zillions of dollars at PPHM is intriguing, to say the least.
He would NOT just do it without thinking of RS implications.
Something is up, in my view.
Best,
Joe Six
Well, well, well, what do we have here?
Who is Ronin's John Stafford III?
CJ, the question the Board CANNOT answer is why is Ronin so involved?
Why? If the RS were so definite, with an impending brutal haircut, why would Ronin back up the truck on 26 million shares beforehand? Make no sense.
No Bear can answer this question...UNLESS.
Unless something is in the works.
Which, in my view, it is.
I don't like to see old time longs sell at this juncture. I just don't. It pains me. We've spent years together right here and for old timers to sell this way, right now, just makes no sense to me.
PPHM's hand is going to be forced here. We have a definite date on the calendar: Friday, July 7, 2017. That is D-day. Decision day. We will know on that day. Exciting!
The science is there. It has never wavered. It's only gotten better and better. More KOLs. More big universities. More third party validation.
Something's gotta give. I'm here until either I cash out or wallpaper my bathroom with PPHM stock certificates. I don't care. I've followed the thread. PS blockade is out there now. Everywhere. No so easy now to swipe the IP. Not with Wolchok's work. Not with Birge, nor Stopeck, nor Gabrilovich, nor Brekken on Board. Not with the e-magazines, the Fierce Biotechs, the Street, et al.
Something's gotta give. Ronin knows something. What is it? Ans: we don't know. And that's bugging the bears and the shorts. BIG TIME.
Best to all longs,
Joe Six Pack
There's a disturbance in the Force...
Hmmmm... over $0.60 soon.
Best,
J6P
Wook, I've been adding since last week
Had a beer with Wolchok last night. He agrees. (Haha)
GLTAL
Joe Six Pack
IFU, many posts here on the Board have encouraged retail to GET OUT for years.
Not sure why you're surprised.
Best,
J6P
Biotech development is not free
Our IP is unencumbered.
Thanks enough for me.
BB1, they're not holding news
they could otherwise reveal.
They're holding for another reason.
RETAIL GET OUT.
Even, perhaps especially, with an RS, RONIN will be applauding the exodus.
They thank you for accelerating it.
J6P
Geo, I/O 2.0 is the wild, wild west
It's a shootout. There's a lot of smoke. Takes a while to clear.
Why did they say a RS is not in the best interests of shareholders?
Because they know what they have. And it's worth a ton.
Getting Wolchok/MSK on Board as well as NCCN is so much more than the trials.
It generates grist for case law to protect the patents!
Of course, all this stuff takes a moment or two.
Ronin/Stafford also want retail out. GET OUT.
How do you do this? Ans: DRAG IT.
Next 3 weeks -great stuff coming - for the Jobs of the world.
Best,
J6P
If you have 7000 shares right now at $0.55/share, then you have $3850.
If you have 1000 shares later at $3.85/share, then you have $3850.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
p.s. in my view, we still avoid the RS. PPHM has been hiding all their poker hands, and now they're gonna show a card or two.
Paul - be careful. It's always darkest before the dawn.
I haven't sold a share and will, in fact, be adding a bit today. (2K)
I doubt Wolchok would scold me.
Best always,
Joe Six Pack
Geo, they want you frustrated
And they want retail to get out. How do I know this? Ronin.
Big boys don't like to make the Joe Six Packs of the world wealthy. It goes against their nature. Sure they'll toss a couple pennies their way, but not much more.
Bottom line: they want Joe to give up. Get frustrated. Sell. Go elsewhere. Chase other green shoots. Just get out.
Ronin has invested many millions in a little Tustin microtech.
I don't get it. For a placebo? Millions?
Ronin's move has not gone unnoticed. TSIII has a great track record.
Bottom line: RETAIL GET OUT
Why has Ronin made the investment it has? That's the one question out of this whole thing that intrigues me the most.
Best,
Joe Six
Bio, my point has always been that retail is the last to know anything.
PPHM RNA line sequencing, betabodies potential, Bavi tripling the anti-PD1 footprint, exosome PS vesicle count and characterization: we're just not privy to ANY of the discussions regarding this pivotal biotech.
Look, Wolchok's melanoma work STARTED I/O 1.O. And then he picks a Tustin microtech as his centerpiece for I/O 2.0
What gives? Fact is, we don't know. Except for one thing. All the KOLs have Bavi and the PS platform right in the middle of the discussion.
Best,
Joe 6
JamesGMS and North40K, nice posts
Wook, 5000 shares going for $3250 right now; after this window closes, those 5000 shares will cost $5000.
That's my view. Dry powder is king, cause Merck Germany spoke up. Installation of 2000L Teknuloof German jug by mid-2017.
On the way now to transfer powder.
VIEL GLUCK (good luck in German)
J6P
Critical mass building - NOT going to see these prices again, in my view.
It's up to $1.00 from here...quickly.
Best,
J6P
We close above $0.70 EOM
A nice PR from Germany works wonders
Last time I checked, German scientists ain't the bottom of the barrel.
Expressing faith in Avid as a cutting edge single-use biologic producer will drive us today and in the future.
Third-party validation once again.
Get your dry powder NOW, Wook.
Best
J6P
RCJ, that is why I like the NASDAQ petition
PPHM stated that they think an RS is not in the best interests of the shareholders.
Therefore, a poker card will have to be shown to keep that promise. If we RS, then we'll be surrounded by bears for the whole camping trip.
Best
Joe 6 P