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The response regarding Nasrat is a non sequitur...
That is not entirely accurate. There is the discussion Nasrat provides that falls within the safe harbor statement and allows him to make statements projecting what he is sees and might surmise. He has done it before...I would suggest any questions sent before the February Q should tee that up!
hoffman, you are exactly right. What we are seeing in the early stages of litigation for NWBO is consistent with practice. Back in my Fortune 50 days, my area was risk management and I worked closely with our chief legal counsel on myriad cases. In fact, when I left there I did expert witness consulting and testimony, based on a Daubert rendering of my expertise. With that, here is what is worth knowing...
Big companies always make noise about defending themselves while they determine their risk exposure. They do not necessarily default to a BATNA, but neither do they choose to settle easily. While I was more on the side of fighting in court than our attorneys were, their approach was understandable as they considered the financial and legal exposures. Financial includes the cost of sustained litigation that could result in a jury/court award of exponentially higher damages than initially sought; not to mention the possibility a judgment sets a legal precedent (that affects all businesses). Further, expansive discovery in the litigation could lead to evidence of criminality and, with that, all hell breaks loose.
In sum, after sufficiently extensive inquiry, whereby the lawyers charge enough for it to be worth their time and for the plaintiff to believe they got their "monies worth", if the evidence is there, I expect a settlement. Others on the board with a legal background might want to weigh in.
Investors paying attention to the reality of business note not only the acquisition by Mika of the SunGen half of the development partnership, but this...
https://contracts.justia.com/companies/elite-pharmaceuticals-inc-1799/contract/194552/
Master Development and License Agreement for Products Between Elite Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Mikah Pharma LLC, effective as of June 10, 2021.(Portions of this Agreement have been redacted in compliance with Regulation S-K Item 601(b)(10))
Actually, it was Joseph Goebbels who said - if you repeat a lie enough times people will believe it. This is what NWBO has had to contend with over the years.
Over time, I am sure to regale you with more...
In truth, we all are limited. Being judged an expert for the purposes of testifying in a court of law according to the Daubert test does not mean one is an expert in all areas under question in court. Even genius cannot be "mayonnaised" across all domains of learning (though one should be careful telling geniuses that).
BB, as it relates to DCVax, what your friend described is the Haynes Threshold - the level beyond which an individual's mind has no ability to process new facts, ideas or concepts.
Yes, but Elite has seen volume reach 20m shares traded under those constraints.
In looking at the absence of interested investors, as has been shown elsewhere, with the belief that Elite's share price will be manipulated, might it be that potential buyers are reticent to jump in? So, with the concern for a manipulated p/s combined with the feeling that the price will not move without big news, we see a self-fulfilling prophesy...lack of investor interest, which allows small but decisive movements to keep the price down. Coincidence? I am not a believer in coincidence.
we all know why.
I would agree that Elite needs more people buying their shares. But please explain why shares for sale lower than the existing bid sat untouched and then were bypassed before settling at a different level. Then, when I pulled the offer, the share price went above where I had made the offer.
Of course. The MMs set the price but then play with it. The idea is to set a fair price and let the trades affect the price up or down. That ain't happening...
Not that simple...I dropped if for them...lower than what was supposedly the basement. My offer remained for some time and the price remained above mine. Go figure. Finally, it dropped right passed me to a lower price. If keeping my offer in place, the price never went up. But when I removed my offer, up went the price.
So, what is the diagnosis?
Point taken.
I am not saying it was or was not spoofing, just that the article engaged me and that is why I thought I would see if my bait was taken. I even provided a cascading set of offers. As for doing what LP has done - smart move - but I think the other folks are running with a different crowd than Nasrat.
I thought I would try a little test after reading the following article...https://www.fxcm.com/markets/insights/what-is-spoofing/
While having no real interest in selling my ELTP shares, I wanted to test my hypothesis and have done so over the past three days. Here is what happened...
I put a block of shares up for sale at the bid price, only to have the price drop lower. I then put up shares for sale LOWER than the bid price. But there were no takers and, after a short time, the bid price dropped lower than my offer. I did this over the three days and on each occasion both the bid price and the share price always dropped lower than what I offered for sale. How is it that each time I offered a block for sale lower than the bid price both the bid price and share price dropped?
Tell me again how there is no evidence of manipulation!
Enjoy the good news and have a nice glass of wine tonight.
Then I would suggest paying attention to what is happening with NWBO.
This timeline seems planned.
I was understating the disagreement between NWBO investors and the non-investors because stating it in more strident terms often turns my thoughts to ether...
Thanks for that data...staggering is it not? Funny how we continue to read of narrow arguments about end points met or not, blinding v. unblinding, all without consideration of the possible addressable market opportunities. It's the forest v. the trees perspective. Getting investors to focus on a tree or two prevents the larger perspective from being discussed...the size of the forest!
Not sure of the variable projections offered by others, but I did an analysis on NWBO DCVax using Keytruda as a surrogate because NWBO has no revenues. So, real numbers, real timeframe for revenues. In keeping with the concept of DCF and using Keytruda's revenues as a surrogate - with similar revenues NWBOs share price today would be $187.11.
To avoid any mistaken impressions, DCF is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment today, based on projections of future cash flows (how much money it will generate in the future). As I said, it is both art and science. For some this can be difficult to grasp, while the science is easy (the algorithm), the art is more difficult because, when identifying the independent variables, the question is based on what future cash flow? Again NWBO has none and that is why I used Keytruda as a surrogate. It is as apples to apples as it gets, just different kinds of apples.
With the prospects of DCVax as an agnostic drug treatment for other forms of cancer - from a business perspective - the value of the company and the share price, based on such projected revenues, would be a multiple of what I posed.
Let me see if I understand this missive correctly...without facts and supported by a declaration of "POS" and in the absence of of understanding what Elite has in development, investors are supposed to do what, exactly? Sell in the face of an absence of facts? Why that would suggest investors have not done their due diligence.
Investors smile at such nonsense, before they start to LOL!
Excellent post and it raises a couple of points...
First, the $1.5M Elite received in 2019 enabled the company to operate. At the time of receipt, Elite was operating with a NET LOSS of $1.6M, with the Adderall ANDAs revenues in the future.
Second, in the three years since, the percentage of market share Elite might have captured remains speculative given both the competition and that Elite's drugs were merely another generic in a saturated market.
Irrespective of the political-legal concerns, Elite had need for funds to ensure future operations. IMHO, getting the cash was necessary to enable Elite to get where they are today...an irrefutably profitable company. The sale of the opioid generics are often misunderstood. Elite needed cash and that it found a buyer is a credit to Nasrat. They are not the first company, nor will they be the last, to sell a product line to fund the future. Despite any protestations, that is the definition of a strategic move.
You are spot on...
A guess about Elite based on no apparent facts in evidence is irrelevant..LOL!
Q: Do you think anyone noticed that this is a strategic move calibrated and conducted by the much lambasted CEO?
N2K: No! It just happened like the big bang! We simply cannot admit the CEO makes strategic moves. Not with this one and not with Dexcel.
Rather than beating one's drum, how about a little more research?
There is no monetary amount ascribed to the transaction. While manufacturing will be what it will be, there clearly is an upfront payment and we will find out what that is next Q. Just so we are clear, that is a one-time payment, like the milestone payment from Epic. The meaning? It will only elevate the quarterly revenues one time. At what point the need for manufacturing will begin is based on the agreement. I suspect that may be a couple of quarters in coming.
What is interesting is that the manufacturing is for three years. While that can be something that is renegotiated at a later date, does anyone find three years curious? Just checking to see if anyone is paying attention.
Sometimes it is best to let the past go...while this is not the Elite most invested in, what seems to be missed is that it is a more solid business.
Zero, zip, zilch, nada...
A couple of data points to add to the thinking...
Merck has Keytruda in the lab at UCLA with NWBO. Keytruda is $17.2B of Merck's $48.7B revenue. If doing the math at home, that is 35% of Merck's total and shows why they are serious in finding how to extend the patent life of Keytruda that expires in 2028.
Merck was "trying on" Seagen for their cancer research capabilities, but it fell through as the DCVax JA process was unfolding. In the world of big business, there are few coincidences.
Oh, I almost forgot. The new CEO (the former CFO) of Merck has indicated dealmaking and research partnerships are a priority.
Let's begin with the misapprehension that the BOD or executive team cares what shareholders think. Shareholders in big firms are along for the ride, as they have no clue how a firm can apply its competencies most effectively to capture the business opportunity. It is the senior team that decides whether to acquire or not and, if it is to acquire, the BOD merely provides the rubber stamp. Typically, shareholders have no vote.
One more point on misapprehensions. It has been suggested that if a BP firm seeks to acquire NWBO they would offer a combination of cash and stock. Perhaps, but that would be a mistake. Debt is cheaper than equity, even in a higher interest rate environment. The price for NWBO would be more than a bolt-on acquisition (< $5B), so they would use debt. And, just to be clear, while Roche has a portfolio need, Merck is in the lab at UCLA with NWBO. They know the asset. Which brings me to what I think...with this caveat...I was part of the due diligence team at a Fortune 50...we knew when to buy and when to partner. I believe a BP firm will fall on the side of a partnership. Less risk right now. But, just so we are clear, many partnerships of small and big end up with big acquiring small when convinced of the size of the opportunity.
Hb4CT, I have experienced the same. In my case it was once my shares in Amazon went green it was "recommended" I sell. I held out but eventually gave up. Still, I have reminded her from time to time that we got 100X less than we could have...!
Sometimes when the BS is so deep, it can be difficult to see the evidence. NWBO, its prospective patients and investors have won. The only question is - By how much? The entire trip to success brings to mind this salient point by Arthur Schopenhauer...
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
It would be published by JAMA Oncology and the last publication was October. There is nothing published yet (November), which means it is pending and should hit in the next day or so.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/currentissue
Different day, different week, different month, the same lament about replacing Nasrat. My response to that nonsense is confined to this song...
Actually, the thumbs should be up for you, as you found the story! So thanks!
You are spot on...
India now prime destination for big pharma's global clinical trials
Published February 15,2022
"India is among top five destinations for our clients while choosing clinical trial sites and numerous big global studies are now being carried out in India," Sanjay Vyas, managing director - India and global SBU head - clinical trial supplies and logistics at Parexel, an U.S. based leading clinical trial organisation (CRO), tells Fortune India.
You bet!
Self distribution is a BIG DEAL!!!