Short term momentum trader.
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For now, dollar is up, but so is oil, and oil is driving up the gold.
So we need to watch both dollar and oil for gold price movement.
OPEC initially refused to cut production to raise the oil price
in effort to kill off the US shale gas/oil production,
but last night they said they are open to cutting production
if other countries also agree to do it.
So that's driving up the oil...but other countries have been
reluctant to cut oil production because their economy is suffering
and need that extra revenue.
It will be interesting to see how this develops.
So if you are trapped in long gold ETFs and want gold to rise,
then root for dollar to fall and oil to rise.
Not likely...dollar is destined to move higher because
Japan has been working to devalue their currency for 2 years now,
and Europe started doing it since May this year.
Many countries in Asia and Europe are also looking at more QE,
whereas US is trying to end it and raise rates,
and that will attract more money into USD.
Other than daily up/down fluctuations, look for dollar to be on
uptrend through roughly first half of 2015 when Asia and Europe's
economy start to improve.
And this is what's going to drive gold down further...
unless oil can rebound, which causes inflation, and
that it will help to bring up gold.
Will buy under $14 again, if it gets there.
That's been profitable trade for couple of weeks now. LOL
Got buy triggers setup at:
500 shares @14.01
1000 shares @13.60
Yes, dollar is very strong today. Energy stocks are pulling up the gold a little, but with strong dollar, I think gold funds will eventually retract...unless dollar pulls back.
Definitely gold and its funds are heavily heavily manipulated.
$1200 is the cost to mine one ounce of gold, so this key level seems
to be artificially supported (for the time being).
I think if left alone, gold would have tanked much more aggressively
through the $1130 level.
That said, US dollar is the key driving factor for gold these days,
but recently, oil has been increasingly effecting gold as well.
Overnight, dollar was rising but so was the oil, and that was driving
the gold up slightly.
With lower than forecast ADP employment numbers this morning,
dollar sank a bit and gold is gaining little more momentum.
But gold is in 1140 to 1220 range for several weeks now,
so it's not really running away either way, but rather, just moving
with the roller coaster manipulation...in my opinion.
Some is due to erosion I know, but it's not that much,
so it baffles me also.
In any case, JDST has a chance to reach $19 on a strong finish to the close.
GDXJ down 7.4. GDX down 3.7.
Looks like Junior gold is taking twice the beating.
Wonder why???
Chart line shows closing of $3.15 at this rate.
Still holding my $3.20 entry.
Europe's gonna do QE which will further strengthen dollar,
and US will be the first major country to raise rates while
other countries are looking to cut rates...which will also
push the dollar higher.
Lowered my entry to $3.20 and $2.80.
Longs exchanging right hook with shorts uppercut.
This is really comical to watch...as we all know this whole up and down
moves are manipulated.
LOL...
Getting closer to my initial $3.30 entry...
I will double up at $3.
I think Japan's debt is even worse ratio compared to their GDP.
Everyone is happy printing money to combat the economic trouble.
JDST printing $17s now...see if we can run up over $18 by close...
JDST +18.5%, could it run to 30+% gain by close?
All is looking good so far.
If $3.60 breaks, quick slide to $3.30 to $3.40 area is likely.
Might want to get stop limit put in at 3.59.
Thinking JNUG will fall. Waiting for $3.30 area for my entry.
I'm in JDST at 13.58 and trying to ride to 17+
Strong USD, expecting GDXJ to rollover by close.
Thinking JDST may close 17+ today.
Given that these ETFs have finished the day in the direction it started
recently, JNUG could reach $3.30 ~ $3.40 level today.
I will consider starting the entry near $3.35 area.
In the meanwhile, I'm riding on JDST.
I use stop limit to take my fear out. You have to be willing to lose
a little for a bigger gain. Its hard to profit from just watching.
For me, entry into JDST below $14 and JNUG below $3.5 has been
profitable in the last couple of weeks.
Thanks. Up another 1k on remaining 500 shares at the moment.
Tempted to sell in the pre-market near $16, but USD is strong this morning,
so I expect gold to pullback.
I'm thinking gold may pullback to about 1180 area, and we might see 20+%
reversal in JNUG/JDST today.
Sold 1500 share @14.52 average for about $1400 profit.
Wanted to hold the whole thing overnight,
but I decided to take some profit while I can.
However, I will hold 500 overnight.
In recent weeks, I profited every time I bought JDST below $14.
CNBC: Gold shorts send metal to key $1,200
Interesting article, but it mentions gold's next target is 1225???
Gold nearly hit that today. LOL.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102228441
Short-covering boosted gold futures above the key $1,200 level, but a strong dollar and worries about global deflation could keep gains in check.
On the first day of December, gold rose to its best level since late October, after taking a major roller-coaster ride overnight.
Gold dipped low enough Sunday night—to the $1,141 per ounce zone—to attract new buying, after the failure of a Swiss referendum that would have required the Swiss National Bank to hold 20 percent of its reserves in gold.
On the plus side, the Indian government Friday withdrew a rule requiring traders to export 20 percent of the gold imported into the country. India instituted the rule and gold tariffs in an effort to rein in its current account deficit.
India eases gold import rule in surprise move
"We didn't think that (Swiss) vote was going to pass. Nobody thought that, but they've cleared the air," said George Gero of RBC. "What brought gold back was there are three continents that have to stimulate their economies. We not only saw softness in Europe with the PMIs, we saw softness in Japan."
He said China also had softer PMI overnight, and the U.S. report of disappointing Black Friday weekend sales was also a sign of weakness. "All of that means more stimulus and that means more inflation coming. Oil also has rebounded from the lows," he said.
Jim Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC, said the Indian government move is important for gold, but its not enough to ignite a massive rally.
"They didn't wipe the tariffs away, but it is the first or second-largest consumer, depending on the year so what they do is important," he said.
Steel said the market is being pulled by emerging markets buyers hunting for bargains, but then pushed back by the headwinds of the stronger dollar and deflation.
The drop after the Swiss vote brought in buyers but he said the euro will have to gain strength for the rally to go much further.
Gero said the current rally could continue, and he sees the next target for the market at $1,225 per ounce.
LOL...I agree. Expect more bi-direction volatility like this in coming days.
LOL...it does appear that Asia and US markets are trying to take control
of gold market and they are reversing each other when one market is asleep. LOL.
This volatility is no where near over...I think we will see more of this
in coming months as "has the gold bottomed or not" question lingers
out there.
Whenever I see gold funds running away (up or down) without respecting
the US dollar movement, I buy the reverse direction fund.
So I'm in JDST @13.58 literally right at closing minute and holding it
overnight.
In 2000 shares @13.58.
Holding overnight.
1142 to 1222. $80 reversal in less than a day.
Complete reversal from last Friday.
Wow...just incredible volatility...loving it.
It's 1203 now and JNUG is at $4.
It will take more than 1208.
Won't be today, but JNUG is due to reverse split in few weeks,
so for sure...it will be way over $5.
Gold, US dollar, and market sentiment effects the price.
Given that gold just tanked to overnight 1142 low, though it rebounded
nearly $70 to near $1200 level, there's still a lot of fear in the market.
Also, oil appears to be dragging the entire commodity market.
Nearly $70 rebound from overnight low of $1142...
That's pretty luck for longs this morning.
If recall correctly, gold also did that big bounce after hitting
the 1130 overnight lows in the Asia.
Lots of volatility...so folks, do short terms trades and don't get stuck
holding any of the 3x ETFs for a long term investment...they are designed
to erode in value each day.
Appears to have bottomed overnight and bouncing on falling dollar like last time when it hit 1130. Incredible resilience...
Likely JNUG will start the trade way below that on Monday if gold remains near $1150.
JDST may have a shot at reaching near $30 this week.
Gold down to 1142. DUST/JDST could pay out big again on Monday.
Could see JDST hit $25 to $30 this week.
Gold tanking to 1145...but many strange things can happen in 14 hours,
including finding an overnight bottom in Asia and recovering some.
Gold tanking to 1153 currently. At this level, NUGT/JNUG may see at least 10% drop.
Still have many hours before Monday's market in US,
so anything can happen, but it doesn't look good for longs at the moment.
Swiss voted "NO". Expect some volatility on Monday.
Thinking both longs and shorts are confused on gold's direction recently.
Emotionally, it feels like gold has bottomed because its been hammered.
Technically, it looks to be in directionless sideways for the time being.
Fundamentally, strong dollar should clobber the gold some more.
Whatever results from Swiss gold referendum, expect another volatile
trading on Monday at least.
It's more like "if gold down then dust up"...
I'm thinking we will see another volatile day on Monday...
though I'm not sure of the direction.
But I think we'll see at least 15%+ moves on these 3x ETFs.