pgm.v/LRTNF .0167

hope nobody followed me into this one. Pure Gold couldn 't refinance their debt and had to go on care and maintenance. Improvements in productions and cost don't matter if the lender calls your loan.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/puregold-provides-financial-operations-103000159.html

Here's the report I read.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/10/13/cold-snap-eastern-us-autumn/

weather forecast for next week is for 20-30 degree drop in temps mostly on east coast. Supposed to last a week. Arctic air is the cause and Western US will get unseasonably warm air and record high temps at the same time. Futures markets are centered on East Coast so lower temps will likely impact traders since they see it going to work. We'll see IF the temps drop that much and IF it lasts all week and affects ngas storage levels..

TRLEF -.0144 to .3156

Trillion Energy down a bit today on pretty good news. Total depth and testing in the next few days. I've seen some pretty good pre testing PR's that turned to dust but overall the drilling has gone as planned and on time and on budget is a good start to a good well. We'll find out in the next couple of weeks. After that, very quick turnaround to production and cash because of existing undersea pipelines and onshore processing facility.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-energy-announces-td-logging-130000476.html

Energy stocks doing well this week after OPEC declared 2 million bpd reduction in quotas. Biden added another 10 million barrel release from SPR but that's not going to do much longer term. And SPR releases of 1 million per day are supposed to be replaced at some point in time. So additional SPR purchases loom off in the distance.

I have moved towards much larger energy companies as they are well financed and profitable with low p/e's.

Current favorites are MTDR with Permian production, improving balance sheet and p/e of 6.
VET is a canadian producer with production of oil and gas in US, Canada and Europe. European ngas production has resulted in a bonanza of free cashflow but lately market has focused on excess profits tax in Europe and has sold off the stock. Still think it has good fundamentals, cheap and increasing ngas due to closing of previous purchase. P/E 6

CTRA Coterra is the result of a recent merger of Cabot and Cimarex. As a result, you get Permian oil, Marcellus gas with ngas being the primary product. Another low p/e of 7 and increasing dividends to shareholders.

VET 23.18

Vermillion has had a big drop since hitting a peak of over US$30 a couple of months ago. Part was due to falling oil prices, hitting an interim peak of $122 in June and falling to below $80 in Sept. VET fell to a low of 18.41 in late September before rallying recently to today's price. One factor in the share price decline is the excess profits tax in Europe. VET gets most of its free cashflow from it's European natural gas production. Prices in Europe have been crazy high and VET has about 10Kbpoed production from natural gas. They are due to increase their share of the offshore Corrib field production late this year or early next when their purchase of additional interest from a jv partner is completed.

The tax will likely take a 25% bite out of VET's free cashflow. Still a very profitable company with increasing ngas production in Europe. They have production in Canada, US and Europe and should fare well in the next few years.

Trillion Energy TRLEF/TCF.cn +.02 to US$.3485 Trillion has been moving up lately as they finally have a drill bit working. No results, although the first well is a recompletion of a previously drilled hole. Should be low risk but they need these first two wells to produce as advertised to avoid a collapse in price. Lots of optimism built into share price.

There are positive reasons for optimism. Offshore drill platforms are already built and in place. 5, I think. The first 17 wells are very low risk due to previous drilling and testing. They were just never produced in a much lower ngas price environment. In addition, Trillion has pipelines already in place to an onshore facility with 75mmcfd capacity. So they drill, complete and almost immediately can produce ngas. That doesn't happen normally. Also their prices are locked in at US$30/mcf. Not Turkish Lira. Which is excellent because Turkey is experiencing 80% inflation. Don't want to be holding Turkish currency.

There are definitely risks due to Black Sea location, Turkey country risk and the normal offshore production issues. But in addition to the first 17 wells, Trillion holds rights to several exploration locations that could be huge. The plan is to use the first 17 wells cashflow to explore nearby locations from the existing platforms.

First well scheduled to be drilled, completed and producing by November. Short wait to find out if they can deliver.

Agree that a cold winter will be needed to support ngas prices. Freeport LNG coming back online Oct. That will boost exports by 20% from that point on. We are already at bottom of 5 year storage levels, even with Freeport offline for the last few months.

Ngas prices have definitely been elevated all year, moving from $4/mcf in 1/22 to a peak of $10 this summer and now at 6.89.

I don't buy that headline. Europe fills up ahead of schedule.

They are comparing historic storage levels in Europe but 90% storage isn't going to help Germany when their ongoing inflows have dramatically declined. 90% was enough to get them thru the winter in previous years when Russia was supplying 40% of their ngas. With only 60% of incoming ngas continuing on a daily basis all winter, that 90% storage figure doesn't hold water or ngas. They are going to get incremental supplies from other countries but nothing compared to what they would have received from Russia. I still think there will be a big crisis in Europe this winter and next. It will take that long to build up LNG import facilities and improve pipelines between countries in Europe.

PGM.v/LRTNF US$.108

Pure Gold is a recent production story with a sad beginning. Overpromised and underdelivered and market made them pay. It peaked in 12/20 in the $2 range. Today I bought a few for .097. Will try to sneak a few more tomorrow.

So why buy? New mgmt. New technical studies and a better look at the ore body. They started production in a hinge zone that they say is the most complicated part of the ore body. As a result, grades have been subpar and below estimates. Prior mgmt was too optimistic. The new studies dropped the total ounces by 20%.

Mgmt is promising increasing ounces, leading to positive cashflow. Recent financing has 6 month warrants that company likely want to get exercised to provide drilling money. To get them exercised, they need good news. Last two months have shown increased production and grade. Should find out pretty quick if they are on the right track. Long term, they are still in the vicinity of the Red Lake Mine and they still have the positive long term potential of more high grade at depth, like Red Lake.

Here is their latest presentation:
https://www.puregoldmining.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Puregold-Corp-Deck-Sep-23-2022.pdf

Hold your $$$$$$$!

We need 17 successful drillings/recompletions before that $30/mcf and $1.75 means anything. Ok, maybe after 10 successful wells, the market will project the rest but let's get #1&2 done before you start celebrating. Only have to wait a couple months.

energy stocks. I added some energy stocks on the dip today.

I don't think energy usage is going to drop that much with a recession. Hasn't in the past. Europe is going to consume every bit of LNG we can export and oil is going to get substituted for ngas this winter.

Added LEU @35.99, MTDR @48.90 and CTRA @ 25.99

Natural gas inventories are below the 5 year average. Cold winter and US will be screaming for ngas. Exporters may get some backlash from US consumers.

Oil production is not going up. OPEC is maxed out. US Producers are not going to risk another price dive, they are maintaining production and paying dividends to investors along with share buybacks. They have been retrained by the market to return capital rather than invest in more production.

It's been a LONG hard slog. Gold and silver have done ok but miners have lagged behind. The long awaited bull market is supposed to have arrived but mining stocks appear to have missed the boat. How long can we go before someone realizes that all the great things envisioned in the bright clear carbon free society need metals to be taken out of the ground.

And of course, we have great leaders who promise to bury the oil and gas industry, thereby shutting off financing and then turn around and DEMAND that refiners and producers produce more!

CTRA $28.78

I have been holding SD for exposure to ngas in the US. Been disappointed in relatively poor performance, in spite of generally strong ngas prices. So bought some Coterra Energy on Friday to see if a different horse can help me.

Coterra is 50/50 oil gas. They have exposure to Permian, Marcellus and Anadarko basins. They are relatively big cap at 22 billion vs only 700 million for SD. They have big acreage and reserves. While I was looking for primarily ngas exposure, I like the 50/50 balance of their production and the cheap production costs in the Marcellus for ngas. Coterra has a low p/e of 7 vs 3 for SD. I think market likes strong margins at CTRA AND growth in production.

SD has been maintaining production by opening shut in wells from the prior price collapse of a few years ago. As a result, they have very low capex requirements and NO HEDGES! So I love the free cashflow but apparently the market does not. So even though I will stubbornly hold SD, I wanted to try a bigger cap energy stock to see if I can capture what I think will be an energy bull market going forward.

market will want to see production and $$ flowing before they reward Trillion stock price. November will seem like a long way off in the distance. And that's assuming no glitches, which are entirely possible on the first well. Stock is up a little today at .358 but off recent highs.

Trillion Energy's SASB Natural Gas Drilling Program Begins
The Company has started its multi-well development program at SASB targeting much needed natural gas in times of scarcity and record high prices

September 19, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”)(CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) is pleased to have commenced its multi-well drilling program on the SASB natural gas field, upon successful arrival of the Uranus Rig which was mobilized last week after delays due to maintenance and weather conditions in the Black Sea.

The Uranus Rig is situated at the Akçakoca platform where the first wells are being drilled. A total of three directional wells will be drilled from the Akçakoca platform, plus one recompletion of an existing well will occur. The Company estimates the four operations will be completed within 6 months.

The Company planned to pair completion of the Akçakoca wells to reduce cost and rig skid times, but each well will produce gas upon completion and sold to market. First gas production is expected early November 2022.

After the work at the Akçakoca platform, the Uranus rig will move to the next of the three platforms at SASB to continue the work program. The Company has plans to drill/complete these initial 7 wells followed by another estimated 10 wells prior to further exploration occurring.

Arthur Halleran, CEO, stated:

“The commencement of drilling operations marks a transformative step towards the Company’s bright future, with drilling to lock in much-needed locally sourced gas supplies for the winter months at prices over US$30/mcf. These long reach advanced engineering production wells will allow gas production to immediately be sold under our existing gas contract where we get paid monthly and can then use the revenues to continue to drill new wells.”
The Company’s development program initially includes seven production wells coming online during a time when acute natural gas shortages are menacing Europe and Turkiye. Drilling of additional 10 targets are expected to follow. Natural gas prices continue to spike, breaking historical records as the prospect of a cold winter looms with the worst shortages expected yet to come.



Trillion Energy is an international gas and oil producer. The Company has a simple clear strategy to add value to shareholders by developing extremely profitable proven non-produced gas reserves on the SASB gas field through existing infrastructure and facilities commencing 2022.
Visit our website

For Investor inquiries please email:
info@trillionenergy.com
Director & CEO
Arthur Halleran
+1 (250) 996-4211

Corparate Offices
+1 (778) 819-1585
Admin Office (Canada)
Suite 700-838 West Hastings St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 0A6 Canada

Operations (Turkey)
Turan Gunes Bulvari, Park Oran Ofis Plaza
180-y, Daire:45, Kat:14, 06450
Oran, Cankaya, Ankara, Turkey

Trillion Energy's SASB Natural Gas Drilling Program Begins
The Company has started its multi-well development program at SASB targeting much needed natural gas in times of scarcity and record high prices

September 19, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”)(CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) is pleased to have commenced its multi-well drilling program on the SASB natural gas field, upon successful arrival of the Uranus Rig which was mobilized last week after delays due to maintenance and weather conditions in the Black Sea.

The Uranus Rig is situated at the Akçakoca platform where the first wells are being drilled. A total of three directional wells will be drilled from the Akçakoca platform, plus one recompletion of an existing well will occur. The Company estimates the four operations will be completed within 6 months.

The Company planned to pair completion of the Akçakoca wells to reduce cost and rig skid times, but each well will produce gas upon completion and sold to market. First gas production is expected early November 2022.

After the work at the Akçakoca platform, the Uranus rig will move to the next of the three platforms at SASB to continue the work program. The Company has plans to drill/complete these initial 7 wells followed by another estimated 10 wells prior to further exploration occurring.

Arthur Halleran, CEO, stated:

“The commencement of drilling operations marks a transformative step towards the Company’s bright future, with drilling to lock in much-needed locally sourced gas supplies for the winter months at prices over US$30/mcf. These long reach advanced engineering production wells will allow gas production to immediately be sold under our existing gas contract where we get paid monthly and can then use the revenues to continue to drill new wells.”
The Company’s development program initially includes seven production wells coming online during a time when acute natural gas shortages are menacing Europe and Turkiye. Drilling of additional 10 targets are expected to follow. Natural gas prices continue to spike, breaking historical records as the prospect of a cold winter looms with the worst shortages expected yet to come.



Trillion Energy is an international gas and oil producer. The Company has a simple clear strategy to add value to shareholders by developing extremely profitable proven non-produced gas reserves on the SASB gas field through existing infrastructure and facilities commencing 2022.
Visit our website

For Investor inquiries please email:
info@trillionenergy.com
Director & CEO
Arthur Halleran
+1 (250) 996-4211

Corparate Offices
+1 (778) 819-1585
Admin Office (Canada)
Suite 700-838 West Hastings St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 0A6 Canada

Operations (Turkey)
Turan Gunes Bulvari, Park Oran Ofis Plaza
180-y, Daire:45, Kat:14, 06450
Oran, Cankaya, Ankara, Turkey

Trillion Energy TRLEF .3898

Finally Drillship Uranus is at the site. Should start drilling in the next few days. These are not exploratory wells. The wells have been drilled and tested previously. The platforms and undersea piples are in place, as is the onshore processing facility. Trillion will drill new wells because of the time since they were drilled but should be very low risk drilling.

Here is a research report forecasting target price of C$1.35 after full production in 2023.

https://mcusercontent.com/5e269838a16742a97c90596c2/files/5ff37a7a-e306-edc6-3a9d-7edc27742f48/TCF_09_13_22.pdf

On their website, they said news in October! Hope it’s good news! US$ is hurting us a bit on Serica

Serica, SQZ..L still sliding a bit. Down to 3.6550 from 3.73 yesterday.

Russians have shut off gas to Europe but apparently investors think problem will be solved by price controls and storage approaching 90% full. I don't think so.

TRLEF +11.76% to US$.3676

Trillion Energy is still saying they will start drilling any day but rig is stuck in port doing some repairs. Rig owner is on the hook for daily penalties since rig wasn't on site on 9/1 but Trillion just needs the rig so they can start drilling and prove their previously drilled holes can produce ngas.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-energy-receives-47-natural-130000211.html

This PR is the cause of today's bump. Raising ngas prices to only $30/mcf.

Now all they need is some gas~!~~! They say 40 days to first gas from date of spud. Let's see how long it takes to get the rig on site and drilling. It's been a struggle with delays upon delays. Such is the life of a microcap in a turbulent world.

SQZ.L -.50 to 3.73 GBP

Bought a few more Serica today at 3.735. Russians will likely turn Nord1 back on but just barely. They want to squeeze Europeans coming into winter. Lots of talk about govt capping the price of oil and gas. Might work short term and of course, they will print more money to finance it. Since European Union loves central control, they will establish a big commission to govern it but it won't fix the underlying problem.

Serica is printing money and should be fine even if there are caps installed.

bought a few more Monday at .30. Chickened out today when it was lower. Not much has gone EXACTLY according to plans but if they bring in the first well, all will be forgiven! The market will start believing the potential when the gas starts flowing!

VET +2.8% to US$30.01

One thing I read about VET that encourages me is their hedging. I normally hate hedging because it ensures cashflow but typically takes away upside.

But the prices in Europe for ngas are unsustainable. Who can afford $400/barrel oil/ngas???

So VET has hedges that were required for the Corrib purchase. The hedges will likely fall off as most of the purchase price is going to be eliminated by the time the deal closes. VET gets to deduct the profits from 1/22 until the deal closes so instead of paying $600 million, they will likely owe 150million at closing! What a steal!

Anyway VET is putting on hedges now to ensure they get the elevated pricing for awhile longer. One of these days, the floor is going to drop away but VET should be somewhat protected.

VET Vermillion Energy +2.5% to US$29.95

Here is a nice overview of Vermillion Energy. Exposed to European gas prices and set to earn it's entire market cap in Free Cash Flow in the next two years. This Seeking Alpha writer also does some calcs on what happens if Euro prices collapse.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537640-vermilion-energy-the-big-long-on-european-natural-gas?mailingid=28880971&messageid=2800&serial=28880971.159&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28880971.159

Uranium stocks are hot again.

I was ready for a riskoff day(RED) but when the market opened the U stocks took off.

UEC+13.5%
LEU +9.55
UUUU+11.22%
URNM +8.59%
GLATF +10.22%
BSENF +8.69%

Japan reversing course and endorsing nuclear is a big deal. Prime Minister even said they will study new updated design plants for the future. I assume he means ones that won't melt down if the power and water supplies are cut off. And they do exist. Fukashima was designed decades ago.

Wow, massive day in uranium stocks. Most move together since there are few producers or any financial fundamentals to rely on. Today the Japanese news gave the sector a BIG boost.

UEC +16.35%, LEU +15%, UUUU +20.46%, URNM #14.4%, GLATF +16.96% and even BSENF, which has been a laggard +23.37%

In addition to "possible" need for more Uranium by the Japanese, spring and fall are traditionally times for Uranium to move. US utilities tend to have new fiscal years starting in the fall and new budgets and money to spend. In addition, there are several important events where users and suppliers gather. Uranium is mostly contracted in long term deals between utilities and producers and these meetings are typically the beginning of the negotiations that determine most of the Uranium that changes hands and is used by the nuclear power industry.

We'll see if this BIG move today represents a kickoff to a long awaited rise in Uranium prices or just another short term blip. Prices spiked in Spring after Russia invaded Ukraine but have faded badly since. Price of Uranium is relatively unchanged this year at around $50.

Producers probably need $60 minimum to incent production from mothballed US producers and new mines, especially if inflation keeps raging. Energy security is the buzzword in the US industry. US production needs government assistance and higher prices to make new mines economic.

Uranium stocks popping big today. UEC +11.72%, LEU +10.67%, UUUU +15%,URNM +10.7%
Japan will consider building new nuclear power plants as well as extending the life of the plants they have brought back online. Japan idled most of their 54 plants after Fukushima but has since been bringing them back online slowly. If near term plans are successful, they will have a total of 17 nuke power plants back online next year.

Japan doesn't have a lot of choices. They have no oil, no natural gas and no hot desert regions for massive solar farms. They have been relying on LNG to make up for lost nuclear power generation. With prices of LNG soaring to 10X previous levels, nuclear has suddenly become not so bad.

China has not been actively bidding for LNG due to the slowdown in their economy. What happens to LNG prices if China resumes it's role as the dominant user of LNG? They will be fighting a bidding war with Europe. Japan and Korea would suffer greatly in that circumstance.

Freeport is important. This facility represent 17% of total US LNG export capacity.

2 bcf is a lot of ngas since we only export about 10bcf/d.

The impact on the price of US ngas will depend on storage levels as we head into winter AND the forecast and ACTUAL temperatures this winter.

Part of the reason for lower levels of storage is that the weather has been hot and usage of air conditioning has increased. Ngas usage depends a great deal on weather. In Europe, the lack of ngas and power generation is likely to have very bad economic consequences for manufacturers(Germany) and the whole economy. The latest twist is that they may have to resort to burning oil to keep the lights on. That might put additional pressure on oil prices down the road. They are already paying three or four times as much as we are for natural gas. So US prices for natural gas are going to keep climbing as more and more LNG export facilities get built and we move towards world pricing for ngas.

Given time, SD should continue to move higher. Freeport LNG plant will come back online in October. That will use a lot of nat gas and reduce US supplies. They are already below 5 yr average. Europe is going to be screaming for every molecule of ngas they can get before winter is over.

Nat gas prices are going to move towards world pricing, which is much higher than $10/mcf.

SD has no hedges. Clean P&L. No adjusting for paper losses vs real losses.

Low p/e, Europe in crisis, US supplies relatively low. I think ngas is going up and SD should tag along.

ZIM +1.55 to 49.39

ZIM is an israeli container carrier. They got killed yesterday after missing earnings estimates. They only made $11.07/share!! P/E is 1. They have committed to distributing 30% of net income to dividends so 4.75/share is coming to holders of record 8/28/22. Market cap is 5.91 billion and they have 3.93 billion in cash!

Shipping is a very cyclical business. They have been in a bear market for awhile. That means that owners haven't been ordering lots of ships. So there is a shortage overall in the fleet and the fleet is getting old. Yes shipping could go down with a bad recession. But there isn't a surplus of ships and IF the economy doesn't go in the tank, world trade will still go on. ZIM is a niche player. They don't own many of their ships and so don't have as much capital expenditures. They try to work smarter not harder.

My shares have an avg cost of $48.43. I bought a few more shares yesterday at $47. $4.75 in dividends in a few weeks. They do withhold for Israeli taxes so net is 75% of 4.75. Still amazing yield.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zim-reports-financial-results-second-110000639.html

https://s27.q4cdn.com/416879924/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/ZIM-Q2-2022-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-17-8-2022.pdf

VET, $25.86, reported Q2 earnings of 2.20/share, Free Cashflow of $340million or 2.07/share

including upcoming acquisition of Corrib ngas field off Britain, Free Cashflow was 422million or 2.56/share

VET has landbased ngas in the Netherlands and Germany as well as the Corrib ngas field. They have oil wells in the US and Canada as well as ngas in Canada.

VET is ideally situated for higher ngas prices in Europe this winter. They get about half their revs from ngas. Geographically diversified and able to make money from oil and ngas.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18902407-vermilion-energy-inc-announces-results-for-three-and-six-months-ended-june-30-2022-33-percent?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews

energy stocks are going to be hot this winter, although I did read that if they make a deal with Iran, oil may get hit.

VET is my favorite, they have oil and ngas in Europe. Pending acquisitions aren't in financials yet and they are still printing money! VET +5.36% today at 26.41, up 38% since mid June

MTDR is a permian oil play. +5.4% today at 60.40 up 37% since mid June

Uranium stocks are running

UEC +.11 to 4.37
LEU +2.79 to 45.54
UUUU +.17 to 7.11
URNM up a more modest .94% but sector has been running

UEC is up over a buck since mid June. US hasn't banned Russian imports but they are working to ensure stable supplies of uranium before doing it. Russia exports both uranium and enriched uranium(needed to make fuel rods). US has no production of raw U308 and has shut down enrichment facilities. Need to fix both problems soon!

Legislation is working towards both. Also US has intentions to create a uranium reserve, similar to fuel oil reserves. Has been authorized but govt agency hasn't bought any uranium yet. We need nuclear reactors to provide carbon free base load power. Sun don't shine at night.

not far from startup so should be able to check financing status as of last financials. Startups are tough but they do seem to have post production customers although it sounds like their prices are going to be higher than chinese sources. Will market participants payup? Recent examples in Ukraine probably strengthens their case.

Startups are always tough. Gotta do your DD and take your chances.

uranium starting to percolate......

LEU +2.70 to 41.50
BSENF +.64 to .64
GLATF +.13 to 2.80
UUUU +.29 to 7.27
URNM +2.02 to 70.73

Congress is intent on rebuilding uranium production and enrichment for energy security. Govt money will flow into this sector over the next several years.

LEU +3.29 to $36.37 The only fundamentally sound play in Uranium took off today on a big earnings beat. Centrus beat earnings with 37.4 million in earnings on 99.1 million in total revs. EPS of $2.51.

This was WAY over Q2 2021 totals of 11.6 earnings on 62.4 million gross revs.

Also secured $135million in new orders bringing their book to $1billion.

Centrus is the ONLY US Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensed provider of HALEU( High Assay Low Enrichment Uranium) This is the future of nuclear fuel in the new reactors and Centrus is in the drivers seat in the US.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centrus-reports-second-quarter-2022-200500824.html

Overall uranium stocks have done well recently, moving up from 0 to 30+% since I bought mid June. LEU has done the best followed by UEC. Long term contracts tend to be negotiated and closed in the fall of each year as utilities review their needs and secure long term supplies of U308. Will this be the kickoff to another big U308 rally? I think so. Ukraine/Russia has exposed the vulnerability of the current/future energy systems. Without ngas as the bridge fuel, the new fangled solar/wind/EV revolution doesn't work. A new battery storage solution may be coming but it ain't here yet.

re SPUT

I understand the appeal of the physical stuff but don't get where the fund ends up. They state that they won't sell so what are they going to do with 50 million pounds of U308?

They have effectively soaked up the slack in the spot market, forcing spot prices up and basically taking away a source of U308 from the utilities that will eventually have to contract for the stuff at higher long term pricing.

Japan still appears to be the closest near term source of real demand. They had long term contracts for U308 and have periodically sold into the spot market, helping create the long term bear market. But if they speed up their revival of refurbished plants, they might impact near term contract pricing.

Of course China is building many new plants as well. But they will probably get their U308 cheap from their comrades, who will probably have a surplus.

I recently got interested in Uranium again. It blasted off in late 2020 without me. The U stocks faded this year so about a month ago I bought UUUU, URNM, UEC and LEU. I also bought smaller positions in GLATF and BSENF. I did so after reviewing a bunch of youtube videos presented the bull case for uranium. Obviously the war in Ukraine has turned a spotlight on energy and Uranium is becoming a pretty big part of the story.

Russia is a big supplier of uranium but probably more importantly is a major player in enrichment, turning the raw U308 into a usable fuel source.

I always thought it was kind of crazy to rely on Russia for this task but it worked for several decades. Unfortunately they did it so cheaply that the uranium enrichment industry in the US went away. France still relies on nuclear more than us so they still have enrichment capacity but not enough to totally replace Russia right now. Luckily the nuclear reactor utilities typically plan well in advance and have sufficient fuel supplies on hand for awhile.

But the resurgence of the US uranium industry is really going to happen. The existing players aren't really producers. They have mothballed projects that can be activated with money and time. I expect US producers to be subsidized at first. So here's why I bought the various stocks:

UUUU Energy Fuels has the only licensed plant in the US able to turn yellow cake into U308. The plant is currently being used to separate rare earths. They have survived the nuclear winter and the White Mesa plant ensures that they will be part of any nuclear renaissance in the US.

URNM is an etf with uranium stocks run by Sprott.

UEC has been collecting uranium assets for a long time. They have several uranium producing projects in mothballs waiting for the price of U308 to rise so they can profitably produce. They bought Uranium One and acquired several projects as well as 5 million pounds of U308. They are a billion dollar market cap player with no production! But they are well positioned with several ISR projects that can be restarted relatively easily.

LEU Centrus Energy is an active supplier to the worldwide nuclear power plant industry. They help design solutions for utilites and provide the potential for improved fuel rods for the industry. They actually have revenues! Their stock was hurt by the fact that they have contracts for enrichment with Russia and could be hurt by tough sanctions. But if there is a nuclear revival in the US and new, better fuel is part of it, it's hard to imagine LEU won't benefit.

GLATF Global Atomic is building a uranium mine in Africa. They are well into construction and will likely beat many of the restarts into production.

BSENF Baseload is further down the chain and is a true junior explorer. They are much small in market cap than the others on this list.

A secondary theme in Uranium stock revivals is that the whole clean energy revolution has turned up a big problem. Solar and wind are intermittent. They haven't been able to provide baseload power. Ask Germany if pouring billions into solar and wind has worked. In addition, whether they like it or not, nuclear emits no CO2. Yeah, we still have the spent fuel problem but this winter, Germans and Europeans will have a much bigger problem than theoretical arguments about spent fuel. They could freeze to death. Nuclear provides safe baseload power. That's why the Chinese are building 150 nuclear reactors. The Chinese are building traditional very large reactors. Another interesting part of the nuclear story is SMR. Small modular reactors could become very important to the mining industry as well as small remote towns and villages. These smaller reactors can theoretically be built in a more factory like manner and bring down costs and time to build. US plants can take 30 years to design and build. The first Western SMR is scheduled to be built and operating by 2027. Success here could invigorate the industry and open up much wider usage of SMR's.

GCM.to

https://themarketherald.ca/gcm-mining-and-aris-gold-combine-to-create-a-leading-americas-gold-producer-2-2022-07-25/?utm_source=stockhouse.com&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=stockhouse.com%7Cwebpart_news%7Cquote_tab

GCM never got credit for the big minority ownership it had in Aris Gold. Of course, Aris hasn't successfully started their underground mine yet either. But now the combined entity will have the big names, Telfer as Chair and Woodyear as CEO.

They already have lots of ounces in the ground and decent production. Just need the market to value the combined entity for what they have. In a couple years, this could be a nice mid major.

check out Vermillion Energy VET $24.72

Vermillion is a Canadian oil and gas producer but has significant European natural gas production. US natgas producers are jumping for joy with $9/mcf pricing, VET is getting $35/mcf for their gas. Wait till this winter!

Market cap of US$4 billion with 1 billion in debt scheduled to be paid off by 12/23.

Free cashflow estimated near 2 billion for 2022!

Some of the cashflow won't show in current interim statements. They made two acquisitions that are still pending. Probably most important is Corrib acquisition. They were 20% partner and purchased 36.5% more. Will close in next few months. They are being credited with the income from the 36.5 position from 1/22. Income will be netted against purchase price at closing. Looks like a 2 year payoff for $600million acquisition. 7700boepd production from this acquisition expected to generate $400million in FREECASHFLOW in 2022!

This production plus their onshore Netherlands wells will generate over 50% of freecashflow from European natural gas. This stock is a great way to play the European nat gas crisis. Once debt is repaid in 2023, Free cashflow will double from 2022 levels.

https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion_Energy_-_Corporate_Presentation_-_July_2022.pdf

Check out the presentation, review financials. This is a safe way to play the European crisis.

FCX +.20 to 29.11

We'll see if markets are right and copper usage is headed way down. I know supply isn't going way up because copper mines are hard to find in big size and take a lot of capital and time to build.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3859446-current-copper-price-unsustainable-freeport-mcmoran-ceo-says?mailingid=28462535&messageid=2900&serial=28462535.8898&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28462535.8898