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market will want to see production and $$ flowing before they reward Trillion stock price. November will seem like a long way off in the distance. And that's assuming no glitches, which are entirely possible on the first well. Stock is up a little today at .358 but off recent highs.
Trillion Energy's SASB Natural Gas Drilling Program Begins
The Company has started its multi-well development program at SASB targeting much needed natural gas in times of scarcity and record high prices
September 19, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”)(CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) is pleased to have commenced its multi-well drilling program on the SASB natural gas field, upon successful arrival of the Uranus Rig which was mobilized last week after delays due to maintenance and weather conditions in the Black Sea.
The Uranus Rig is situated at the Akçakoca platform where the first wells are being drilled. A total of three directional wells will be drilled from the Akçakoca platform, plus one recompletion of an existing well will occur. The Company estimates the four operations will be completed within 6 months.
The Company planned to pair completion of the Akçakoca wells to reduce cost and rig skid times, but each well will produce gas upon completion and sold to market. First gas production is expected early November 2022.
After the work at the Akçakoca platform, the Uranus rig will move to the next of the three platforms at SASB to continue the work program. The Company has plans to drill/complete these initial 7 wells followed by another estimated 10 wells prior to further exploration occurring.
Arthur Halleran, CEO, stated:
“The commencement of drilling operations marks a transformative step towards the Company’s bright future, with drilling to lock in much-needed locally sourced gas supplies for the winter months at prices over US$30/mcf. These long reach advanced engineering production wells will allow gas production to immediately be sold under our existing gas contract where we get paid monthly and can then use the revenues to continue to drill new wells.”
The Company’s development program initially includes seven production wells coming online during a time when acute natural gas shortages are menacing Europe and Turkiye. Drilling of additional 10 targets are expected to follow. Natural gas prices continue to spike, breaking historical records as the prospect of a cold winter looms with the worst shortages expected yet to come.
Trillion Energy is an international gas and oil producer. The Company has a simple clear strategy to add value to shareholders by developing extremely profitable proven non-produced gas reserves on the SASB gas field through existing infrastructure and facilities commencing 2022.
Visit our website
For Investor inquiries please email:
info@trillionenergy.com
Director & CEO
Arthur Halleran
+1 (250) 996-4211
Corparate Offices
+1 (778) 819-1585
Admin Office (Canada)
Suite 700-838 West Hastings St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 0A6 Canada
Operations (Turkey)
Turan Gunes Bulvari, Park Oran Ofis Plaza
180-y, Daire:45, Kat:14, 06450
Oran, Cankaya, Ankara, Turkey
Trillion Energy's SASB Natural Gas Drilling Program Begins
The Company has started its multi-well development program at SASB targeting much needed natural gas in times of scarcity and record high prices
September 19, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”)(CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) is pleased to have commenced its multi-well drilling program on the SASB natural gas field, upon successful arrival of the Uranus Rig which was mobilized last week after delays due to maintenance and weather conditions in the Black Sea.
The Uranus Rig is situated at the Akçakoca platform where the first wells are being drilled. A total of three directional wells will be drilled from the Akçakoca platform, plus one recompletion of an existing well will occur. The Company estimates the four operations will be completed within 6 months.
The Company planned to pair completion of the Akçakoca wells to reduce cost and rig skid times, but each well will produce gas upon completion and sold to market. First gas production is expected early November 2022.
After the work at the Akçakoca platform, the Uranus rig will move to the next of the three platforms at SASB to continue the work program. The Company has plans to drill/complete these initial 7 wells followed by another estimated 10 wells prior to further exploration occurring.
Arthur Halleran, CEO, stated:
“The commencement of drilling operations marks a transformative step towards the Company’s bright future, with drilling to lock in much-needed locally sourced gas supplies for the winter months at prices over US$30/mcf. These long reach advanced engineering production wells will allow gas production to immediately be sold under our existing gas contract where we get paid monthly and can then use the revenues to continue to drill new wells.”
The Company’s development program initially includes seven production wells coming online during a time when acute natural gas shortages are menacing Europe and Turkiye. Drilling of additional 10 targets are expected to follow. Natural gas prices continue to spike, breaking historical records as the prospect of a cold winter looms with the worst shortages expected yet to come.
Trillion Energy is an international gas and oil producer. The Company has a simple clear strategy to add value to shareholders by developing extremely profitable proven non-produced gas reserves on the SASB gas field through existing infrastructure and facilities commencing 2022.
Visit our website
For Investor inquiries please email:
info@trillionenergy.com
Director & CEO
Arthur Halleran
+1 (250) 996-4211
Corparate Offices
+1 (778) 819-1585
Admin Office (Canada)
Suite 700-838 West Hastings St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 0A6 Canada
Operations (Turkey)
Turan Gunes Bulvari, Park Oran Ofis Plaza
180-y, Daire:45, Kat:14, 06450
Oran, Cankaya, Ankara, Turkey
Trillion Energy TRLEF .3898
Finally Drillship Uranus is at the site. Should start drilling in the next few days. These are not exploratory wells. The wells have been drilled and tested previously. The platforms and undersea piples are in place, as is the onshore processing facility. Trillion will drill new wells because of the time since they were drilled but should be very low risk drilling.
Here is a research report forecasting target price of C$1.35 after full production in 2023.
https://mcusercontent.com/5e269838a16742a97c90596c2/files/5ff37a7a-e306-edc6-3a9d-7edc27742f48/TCF_09_13_22.pdf
On their website, they said news in October! Hope it’s good news! US$ is hurting us a bit on Serica
Serica, SQZ..L still sliding a bit. Down to 3.6550 from 3.73 yesterday.
Russians have shut off gas to Europe but apparently investors think problem will be solved by price controls and storage approaching 90% full. I don't think so.
TRLEF +11.76% to US$.3676
Trillion Energy is still saying they will start drilling any day but rig is stuck in port doing some repairs. Rig owner is on the hook for daily penalties since rig wasn't on site on 9/1 but Trillion just needs the rig so they can start drilling and prove their previously drilled holes can produce ngas.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-energy-receives-47-natural-130000211.html
This PR is the cause of today's bump. Raising ngas prices to only $30/mcf.
Now all they need is some gas~!~~! They say 40 days to first gas from date of spud. Let's see how long it takes to get the rig on site and drilling. It's been a struggle with delays upon delays. Such is the life of a microcap in a turbulent world.
SQZ.L -.50 to 3.73 GBP
Bought a few more Serica today at 3.735. Russians will likely turn Nord1 back on but just barely. They want to squeeze Europeans coming into winter. Lots of talk about govt capping the price of oil and gas. Might work short term and of course, they will print more money to finance it. Since European Union loves central control, they will establish a big commission to govern it but it won't fix the underlying problem.
Serica is printing money and should be fine even if there are caps installed.
bought a few more Monday at .30. Chickened out today when it was lower. Not much has gone EXACTLY according to plans but if they bring in the first well, all will be forgiven! The market will start believing the potential when the gas starts flowing!
VET +2.8% to US$30.01
One thing I read about VET that encourages me is their hedging. I normally hate hedging because it ensures cashflow but typically takes away upside.
But the prices in Europe for ngas are unsustainable. Who can afford $400/barrel oil/ngas???
So VET has hedges that were required for the Corrib purchase. The hedges will likely fall off as most of the purchase price is going to be eliminated by the time the deal closes. VET gets to deduct the profits from 1/22 until the deal closes so instead of paying $600 million, they will likely owe 150million at closing! What a steal!
Anyway VET is putting on hedges now to ensure they get the elevated pricing for awhile longer. One of these days, the floor is going to drop away but VET should be somewhat protected.
VET Vermillion Energy +2.5% to US$29.95
Here is a nice overview of Vermillion Energy. Exposed to European gas prices and set to earn it's entire market cap in Free Cash Flow in the next two years. This Seeking Alpha writer also does some calcs on what happens if Euro prices collapse.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537640-vermilion-energy-the-big-long-on-european-natural-gas?mailingid=28880971&messageid=2800&serial=28880971.159&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28880971.159
Uranium stocks are hot again.
I was ready for a riskoff day(RED) but when the market opened the U stocks took off.
UEC+13.5%
LEU +9.55
UUUU+11.22%
URNM +8.59%
GLATF +10.22%
BSENF +8.69%
Japan reversing course and endorsing nuclear is a big deal. Prime Minister even said they will study new updated design plants for the future. I assume he means ones that won't melt down if the power and water supplies are cut off. And they do exist. Fukashima was designed decades ago.
Wow, massive day in uranium stocks. Most move together since there are few producers or any financial fundamentals to rely on. Today the Japanese news gave the sector a BIG boost.
UEC +16.35%, LEU +15%, UUUU +20.46%, URNM #14.4%, GLATF +16.96% and even BSENF, which has been a laggard +23.37%
In addition to "possible" need for more Uranium by the Japanese, spring and fall are traditionally times for Uranium to move. US utilities tend to have new fiscal years starting in the fall and new budgets and money to spend. In addition, there are several important events where users and suppliers gather. Uranium is mostly contracted in long term deals between utilities and producers and these meetings are typically the beginning of the negotiations that determine most of the Uranium that changes hands and is used by the nuclear power industry.
We'll see if this BIG move today represents a kickoff to a long awaited rise in Uranium prices or just another short term blip. Prices spiked in Spring after Russia invaded Ukraine but have faded badly since. Price of Uranium is relatively unchanged this year at around $50.
Producers probably need $60 minimum to incent production from mothballed US producers and new mines, especially if inflation keeps raging. Energy security is the buzzword in the US industry. US production needs government assistance and higher prices to make new mines economic.
Uranium stocks popping big today. UEC +11.72%, LEU +10.67%, UUUU +15%,URNM +10.7%
Japan will consider building new nuclear power plants as well as extending the life of the plants they have brought back online. Japan idled most of their 54 plants after Fukushima but has since been bringing them back online slowly. If near term plans are successful, they will have a total of 17 nuke power plants back online next year.
Japan doesn't have a lot of choices. They have no oil, no natural gas and no hot desert regions for massive solar farms. They have been relying on LNG to make up for lost nuclear power generation. With prices of LNG soaring to 10X previous levels, nuclear has suddenly become not so bad.
China has not been actively bidding for LNG due to the slowdown in their economy. What happens to LNG prices if China resumes it's role as the dominant user of LNG? They will be fighting a bidding war with Europe. Japan and Korea would suffer greatly in that circumstance.
Freeport is important. This facility represent 17% of total US LNG export capacity.
2 bcf is a lot of ngas since we only export about 10bcf/d.
The impact on the price of US ngas will depend on storage levels as we head into winter AND the forecast and ACTUAL temperatures this winter.
Part of the reason for lower levels of storage is that the weather has been hot and usage of air conditioning has increased. Ngas usage depends a great deal on weather. In Europe, the lack of ngas and power generation is likely to have very bad economic consequences for manufacturers(Germany) and the whole economy. The latest twist is that they may have to resort to burning oil to keep the lights on. That might put additional pressure on oil prices down the road. They are already paying three or four times as much as we are for natural gas. So US prices for natural gas are going to keep climbing as more and more LNG export facilities get built and we move towards world pricing for ngas.
Given time, SD should continue to move higher. Freeport LNG plant will come back online in October. That will use a lot of nat gas and reduce US supplies. They are already below 5 yr average. Europe is going to be screaming for every molecule of ngas they can get before winter is over.
Nat gas prices are going to move towards world pricing, which is much higher than $10/mcf.
SD has no hedges. Clean P&L. No adjusting for paper losses vs real losses.
Low p/e, Europe in crisis, US supplies relatively low. I think ngas is going up and SD should tag along.
ZIM +1.55 to 49.39
ZIM is an israeli container carrier. They got killed yesterday after missing earnings estimates. They only made $11.07/share!! P/E is 1. They have committed to distributing 30% of net income to dividends so 4.75/share is coming to holders of record 8/28/22. Market cap is 5.91 billion and they have 3.93 billion in cash!
Shipping is a very cyclical business. They have been in a bear market for awhile. That means that owners haven't been ordering lots of ships. So there is a shortage overall in the fleet and the fleet is getting old. Yes shipping could go down with a bad recession. But there isn't a surplus of ships and IF the economy doesn't go in the tank, world trade will still go on. ZIM is a niche player. They don't own many of their ships and so don't have as much capital expenditures. They try to work smarter not harder.
My shares have an avg cost of $48.43. I bought a few more shares yesterday at $47. $4.75 in dividends in a few weeks. They do withhold for Israeli taxes so net is 75% of 4.75. Still amazing yield.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zim-reports-financial-results-second-110000639.html
https://s27.q4cdn.com/416879924/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/ZIM-Q2-2022-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-17-8-2022.pdf
VET, $25.86, reported Q2 earnings of 2.20/share, Free Cashflow of $340million or 2.07/share
including upcoming acquisition of Corrib ngas field off Britain, Free Cashflow was 422million or 2.56/share
VET has landbased ngas in the Netherlands and Germany as well as the Corrib ngas field. They have oil wells in the US and Canada as well as ngas in Canada.
VET is ideally situated for higher ngas prices in Europe this winter. They get about half their revs from ngas. Geographically diversified and able to make money from oil and ngas.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18902407-vermilion-energy-inc-announces-results-for-three-and-six-months-ended-june-30-2022-33-percent?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews
energy stocks are going to be hot this winter, although I did read that if they make a deal with Iran, oil may get hit.
VET is my favorite, they have oil and ngas in Europe. Pending acquisitions aren't in financials yet and they are still printing money! VET +5.36% today at 26.41, up 38% since mid June
MTDR is a permian oil play. +5.4% today at 60.40 up 37% since mid June
Uranium stocks are running
UEC +.11 to 4.37
LEU +2.79 to 45.54
UUUU +.17 to 7.11
URNM up a more modest .94% but sector has been running
UEC is up over a buck since mid June. US hasn't banned Russian imports but they are working to ensure stable supplies of uranium before doing it. Russia exports both uranium and enriched uranium(needed to make fuel rods). US has no production of raw U308 and has shut down enrichment facilities. Need to fix both problems soon!
Legislation is working towards both. Also US has intentions to create a uranium reserve, similar to fuel oil reserves. Has been authorized but govt agency hasn't bought any uranium yet. We need nuclear reactors to provide carbon free base load power. Sun don't shine at night.
not far from startup so should be able to check financing status as of last financials. Startups are tough but they do seem to have post production customers although it sounds like their prices are going to be higher than chinese sources. Will market participants payup? Recent examples in Ukraine probably strengthens their case.
Startups are always tough. Gotta do your DD and take your chances.
uranium starting to percolate......
LEU +2.70 to 41.50
BSENF +.64 to .64
GLATF +.13 to 2.80
UUUU +.29 to 7.27
URNM +2.02 to 70.73
Congress is intent on rebuilding uranium production and enrichment for energy security. Govt money will flow into this sector over the next several years.
LEU +3.29 to $36.37 The only fundamentally sound play in Uranium took off today on a big earnings beat. Centrus beat earnings with 37.4 million in earnings on 99.1 million in total revs. EPS of $2.51.
This was WAY over Q2 2021 totals of 11.6 earnings on 62.4 million gross revs.
Also secured $135million in new orders bringing their book to $1billion.
Centrus is the ONLY US Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensed provider of HALEU( High Assay Low Enrichment Uranium) This is the future of nuclear fuel in the new reactors and Centrus is in the drivers seat in the US.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centrus-reports-second-quarter-2022-200500824.html
Overall uranium stocks have done well recently, moving up from 0 to 30+% since I bought mid June. LEU has done the best followed by UEC. Long term contracts tend to be negotiated and closed in the fall of each year as utilities review their needs and secure long term supplies of U308. Will this be the kickoff to another big U308 rally? I think so. Ukraine/Russia has exposed the vulnerability of the current/future energy systems. Without ngas as the bridge fuel, the new fangled solar/wind/EV revolution doesn't work. A new battery storage solution may be coming but it ain't here yet.
re SPUT
I understand the appeal of the physical stuff but don't get where the fund ends up. They state that they won't sell so what are they going to do with 50 million pounds of U308?
They have effectively soaked up the slack in the spot market, forcing spot prices up and basically taking away a source of U308 from the utilities that will eventually have to contract for the stuff at higher long term pricing.
Japan still appears to be the closest near term source of real demand. They had long term contracts for U308 and have periodically sold into the spot market, helping create the long term bear market. But if they speed up their revival of refurbished plants, they might impact near term contract pricing.
Of course China is building many new plants as well. But they will probably get their U308 cheap from their comrades, who will probably have a surplus.
I recently got interested in Uranium again. It blasted off in late 2020 without me. The U stocks faded this year so about a month ago I bought UUUU, URNM, UEC and LEU. I also bought smaller positions in GLATF and BSENF. I did so after reviewing a bunch of youtube videos presented the bull case for uranium. Obviously the war in Ukraine has turned a spotlight on energy and Uranium is becoming a pretty big part of the story.
Russia is a big supplier of uranium but probably more importantly is a major player in enrichment, turning the raw U308 into a usable fuel source.
I always thought it was kind of crazy to rely on Russia for this task but it worked for several decades. Unfortunately they did it so cheaply that the uranium enrichment industry in the US went away. France still relies on nuclear more than us so they still have enrichment capacity but not enough to totally replace Russia right now. Luckily the nuclear reactor utilities typically plan well in advance and have sufficient fuel supplies on hand for awhile.
But the resurgence of the US uranium industry is really going to happen. The existing players aren't really producers. They have mothballed projects that can be activated with money and time. I expect US producers to be subsidized at first. So here's why I bought the various stocks:
UUUU Energy Fuels has the only licensed plant in the US able to turn yellow cake into U308. The plant is currently being used to separate rare earths. They have survived the nuclear winter and the White Mesa plant ensures that they will be part of any nuclear renaissance in the US.
URNM is an etf with uranium stocks run by Sprott.
UEC has been collecting uranium assets for a long time. They have several uranium producing projects in mothballs waiting for the price of U308 to rise so they can profitably produce. They bought Uranium One and acquired several projects as well as 5 million pounds of U308. They are a billion dollar market cap player with no production! But they are well positioned with several ISR projects that can be restarted relatively easily.
LEU Centrus Energy is an active supplier to the worldwide nuclear power plant industry. They help design solutions for utilites and provide the potential for improved fuel rods for the industry. They actually have revenues! Their stock was hurt by the fact that they have contracts for enrichment with Russia and could be hurt by tough sanctions. But if there is a nuclear revival in the US and new, better fuel is part of it, it's hard to imagine LEU won't benefit.
GLATF Global Atomic is building a uranium mine in Africa. They are well into construction and will likely beat many of the restarts into production.
BSENF Baseload is further down the chain and is a true junior explorer. They are much small in market cap than the others on this list.
A secondary theme in Uranium stock revivals is that the whole clean energy revolution has turned up a big problem. Solar and wind are intermittent. They haven't been able to provide baseload power. Ask Germany if pouring billions into solar and wind has worked. In addition, whether they like it or not, nuclear emits no CO2. Yeah, we still have the spent fuel problem but this winter, Germans and Europeans will have a much bigger problem than theoretical arguments about spent fuel. They could freeze to death. Nuclear provides safe baseload power. That's why the Chinese are building 150 nuclear reactors. The Chinese are building traditional very large reactors. Another interesting part of the nuclear story is SMR. Small modular reactors could become very important to the mining industry as well as small remote towns and villages. These smaller reactors can theoretically be built in a more factory like manner and bring down costs and time to build. US plants can take 30 years to design and build. The first Western SMR is scheduled to be built and operating by 2027. Success here could invigorate the industry and open up much wider usage of SMR's.
GCM.to
https://themarketherald.ca/gcm-mining-and-aris-gold-combine-to-create-a-leading-americas-gold-producer-2-2022-07-25/?utm_source=stockhouse.com&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=stockhouse.com%7Cwebpart_news%7Cquote_tab
GCM never got credit for the big minority ownership it had in Aris Gold. Of course, Aris hasn't successfully started their underground mine yet either. But now the combined entity will have the big names, Telfer as Chair and Woodyear as CEO.
They already have lots of ounces in the ground and decent production. Just need the market to value the combined entity for what they have. In a couple years, this could be a nice mid major.
check out Vermillion Energy VET $24.72
Vermillion is a Canadian oil and gas producer but has significant European natural gas production. US natgas producers are jumping for joy with $9/mcf pricing, VET is getting $35/mcf for their gas. Wait till this winter!
Market cap of US$4 billion with 1 billion in debt scheduled to be paid off by 12/23.
Free cashflow estimated near 2 billion for 2022!
Some of the cashflow won't show in current interim statements. They made two acquisitions that are still pending. Probably most important is Corrib acquisition. They were 20% partner and purchased 36.5% more. Will close in next few months. They are being credited with the income from the 36.5 position from 1/22. Income will be netted against purchase price at closing. Looks like a 2 year payoff for $600million acquisition. 7700boepd production from this acquisition expected to generate $400million in FREECASHFLOW in 2022!
This production plus their onshore Netherlands wells will generate over 50% of freecashflow from European natural gas. This stock is a great way to play the European nat gas crisis. Once debt is repaid in 2023, Free cashflow will double from 2022 levels.
https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion_Energy_-_Corporate_Presentation_-_July_2022.pdf
Check out the presentation, review financials. This is a safe way to play the European crisis.
FCX +.20 to 29.11
We'll see if markets are right and copper usage is headed way down. I know supply isn't going way up because copper mines are hard to find in big size and take a lot of capital and time to build.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3859446-current-copper-price-unsustainable-freeport-mcmoran-ceo-says?mailingid=28462535&messageid=2900&serial=28462535.8898&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28462535.8898
FCX +.34 to 28.91 Bought some more FCX. Historic low inventories in copper don't equal the sharp price drop in copper that we've seen since the recession scare started. FCX is profitable and has both copper and gold. Like the CEO said in comments about Q2, Freeport has been thru this before and knows how to adjust to different economic conditions.
If even 1/2 the projected increases in electric cars happens, copper will be in deficit and prices will be higher. If times get tough, many juniors will be unable to finance the large capex required by large copper mines but FCX can either self finance or borrow the necessary funds. They have been reducing leverage during the high prices and are in good shape, financially.
Hecla was probably a poor choice. Market is ignoring short supplies in Zinc and other base metals and Hecla is known primarily as a silver play. Maybe at earnings release, investors will hear about zinc but will then forget that HL is involved.
Big question is when will the market care about declining inventories of copper and zinc. Guess they figure if we have a recession, we won't need those metals. I don't think that's true but it seems that's the attitude.
Any doubts about the actual issue and you should go to Kitcometals.com and look at the longer term charts for base metal supplies. But until China comes fully out of lockdown, I guess they will ignore the problem.
There is a lot of talk about a bull market in uranium.
The Ukraine war has thrown the nuclear power plant business into doubt because Russia does a lot of the enrichment for the world industry. In addition Kazakhstan is the world's biggest source of U308. They have been a Russian ally in the past but seem to be trying to distance themselves recently. If the sanctions are extended to uranium, many utilities around the world will be scrambling to get U308 as well as enriched Uranium AND the actual fuel rods that they burn in their reactors.
Besides the war, the green movement really needs nuclear power plants to provide carbon free base power. They cannot generate enough solar and wind to ever fully replace the current base load power provided by coal and nuclear.
After reading up on uranium stocks, I invested in some of the big ones. The whole industry will likely move together if this thesis holds true.
I bought UEC, URNM, UUUU, BSENF, GLATF and LEU. I don't know how long this is going to take but plan to hold for at least a year. Many countries are coming to the realization that the green energy conversion isn't going to happen without nuclear. In addition the new Small Modular Reactors are coming this decade. They are smaller and promise many safety features that make them much safer than the old generation of nuke plants in the US and the world. They still have the disposal problem but are carbon free and provide good base load power.
China is on track to build 150 new nuke plants. Unlike the US, they can build them in 4 or 5 years.
VET Vermillion +1.42 to 21.53
energy stocks went up today. Russia has cutoff gas to Europe. Vermillion has onshore gas in the Netherlands and also produces gas offshore in the North Sea.
They are diversified with oil production in Canada as well. Vermillion should report another solid quarter and has two catalysts coming. They bought out their partner in the Corrib gas fields off Ireland. They have 20% and are buying another 36% but the deal doesn't have govt approval yet. In the meantime, the gas is accruing to VET from 1/22 and will be added to the P&L when the deal is closed. They also have another purchase pending. Vermillion is getting $35+/mcf for their gas. If Russia does cutoff Europe from further Nord1 gas, ngas in Europe will spike even higher and VET will be one of the beneficiaries.
Here is a Seeking Alpha article discussing Vermillion:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523712-vermillion-offers-protection-to-the-biggest-risk-to-the-market-right-now?mailingid=28399114&messageid=2800&serial=28399114.3211&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28399114.3211
sqz.l +.41.4 to GBP3.465 big pop in Euro nat gas due to Russians shutting off Nord 1. Will they turn it back on after the turbine gets installed? I think they will but they'll make the Europeans squirm before they do it.
Serica is almost all ngas so it should respond to Euro nat gas pricing.
VET is puzzling. They get 20% of their revs from European nat gas and they are down today because oil is down. Investors don't seem to get it. Amazing free cashflow is coming from the Euro nat gas. Oil is the major source of revs but their competitors don't have the same pricing on the nat gas. Oh well, have to wait for Q2 p&l to wake folks up. VET will be debt free in 2023 from free cashflow and are talking about raising dividends and buybacks after that happens.
watched video from Eric Nuttall and Nine Point Energy on youtube. He had a guest on that reviewed the prospects for oil usage and prices going forward. Very convincing review of prior recessions and the fact that energy usage hasn't fallen that much during prior recessions PLUS European situation.
TRLEF -.0182 to US$.1558
Trillion CEO did an interview on something called Emerging Growth Conference 34 today. It was a good overview of current situation. Had a couple of slides showing where he spent several million buying supplies so that Trillion is ready for the drill rig when it gets there in August. Said they will send expert to inspect the rig and get any repairs done before the rig travels to SASB and before they have to start paying daily rig fees. Drilling company is responsible if there is a delay in getting the rig to SASB due to repairs that are their fault.
Art is focused on getting everything ready for the drill campaign. Went over financing and rationale for why he did what when. He made a good point. Said imagine if he had waited to raise money until now. How hard it would be to get investors interested right now. Anyway he raised the money when it was available.
They spent about $4 million on early supplies and securing rig( had to send them $1million to ensure they would come in August) and another similar amount will be spent in July to ensure everything is ready when the rig arrives in August.
Went over exploration plans AFTER SASB is drilled and wells are online and producing. Said there are big prospects and they will use SASB cashflow to pursue prospects in 2024-25 after cashflow is well established.
Agreed that valuation is very low. They raised C$40 million and market cap is around US$45million. Investors are valuing SASB at around US$25 million, which is very low given size and certainty of well sites and equipment.
Had question and answer period. Someone asked why the stock price was falling.
Duh! Everything else is falling too.
Another asked if he was going to use the money he raised to support the stock price now. Very glad to hear him emphasize that the money raised will be used to generate revenue thru drilling. Short term thinking in supporting share price is stupid in my opinion. The prize is revs and profits. Let the market figure out what it's worth after they start cashflowing in the millions per month.
It was a very good interview. Art mentioned that during fundraising they were prohibited from conducting any IR. That is over and he is trying to drum up interest in the stock. But in the end, we have to wait for the first well results. After that, every 45 days, they will start drilling a new well until the previously drilled wells at SASB are drilled and operating.
SQZ.L -.115 to 2.835 gbp
Serica should have an excellent Q3 based on this story regarding European gas prices:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/column-europe-forced-to-pay-even-higher-prices-to-fill-gas-storage%3A-kemp
another ugly day TRLEF -.0457 to .1671
low is .1566
Bought a few more shares at .163. Lots of small orders to sell. The announcement from Trillion that things are moving along seems to have spooked people. Maybe the confirmation that the drill rig wasn't going to be on site until August caused some of the selling. This first well better go smoothly or the bottom will fall out.
Thanks for the tip Matt. Bought some SQZ.L today at 2.955 gbp. Had to chase it but it's a nice combo of European ngas prices/crisis and the chance for some upside if they hit their exploration well in Q3/4. Hedging is declining too. Wish they reported quarterly but that's part of investing overseas.
Yeah, there's no easy answer. Nukes can't be brought back online quickly or cheaply(Germany you dummies)
There are no big new sources of natural gas to replace a huge producer like Russia.
They can probably crank up some old coal fired furnaces a little more quickly.
Winter is coming and Europe is going to pay thru the nose! Who's going to get reelected if nobody has heat in their homes.
We've redirected LNG from Asia to Europe but that's not going to last very long. Asia(China) is going to need that LNG to reopen their country and if there is a cold winter, LNG is going to fly.
are you buying Serica in London SQZ.L or the otc symbol sqzzf. SQZZF doesn't trade much. Hasn't traded for a few days.
Looks pretty interesting. Mid level producer. Not a startup by any means.
The Central Bankers threw a wet blanket on the stock markets, energy, metals, you name it. Might wait a bit for the dust to settle. Fundamentals are pretty solid unless world economy goes into a BIG recession. Still need energy to keep the lights and heat on. Still need food. Still need metals to make anything.
SD kinda greedy aren't we? you want to double eps in one qtr?
I used a conservative number for avg price of ngas in Q2. SD gets a little over 50% of revs from ngas. Oil and ngas liquids did not double in price from Q1 to Q2. Since they make up ~48% of revs, that will limit eps gains.
$1.35eps X 4 = fwd annualized $5.40 eps for a $17 stock. That's pretty good.
Production has been pretty stable. SD hasn't been drilling new wells. They have just been bringing back wells that they mothballed during the bad old days to maintain production. So capex has been limited. Another plus and they are growing cash. Should be around $200 million by now. No debt~!