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Have they actually signed a lease agreement? If so then I agree something more immediate is possible but I haven't heard that news.
I disagree on the reason for the constant changes. Look at the past news releases and President's messages. He stated in no uncertain terms that they were concentrating on the bsi as it was the project closest to development. Now it's flexible R2R development. It makes no sense. A lack of focus by management.
Disappointing news on one of my other investments and a drop in the sp on Natcore. Not a good day.
I have a hard time understanding why you think this is a scam. They're not making any money, not looking for grants and not doing pp's. The market is reacting badly to their constant delays and so manipulating the sp isn't working. Even when someone pumps the stock the volume doesn't suggest anyone is making a lot of money. I think the technology simply doesn't work as they thought it would and are hanging in there looking for someone to buy them who might have the resources to make it work. I won't be surprised if that happens sooner rather than later. Some indications that this is the company's direction i.e. the whine about needing more money and manpower to get a flexible cell into production, changing the company's article to make a sale easier, consolidating the research labs into one unit etc. We might make some money if that is the case but probably nothing more than a few dollars per share.
Same old same old. Provimi should stop patting himself on the back and DO SOMETHING.
I continue to be mystified by this company. It seems as if all they do is change direction on one project after another. They announce a new process for the bsi and suggest commercialization is weeks or months away but then the next announcement is for something like a new employee or listing on the Frankfurt exchange. Now it's a flexible bsi cell. They whine that if they had the dollars and manpower they could get it commercialized in a year. Crap! I've said for two years that they need to do another pp and capitalize to ramp up the process. Every time that question is asked they say "no, we don't plan on a pp" . Why not? So you dilute the share base by 5 or 6 million. Who cares if you get the "game changing technology" to market. The sp would take off and the extra dilution wouldn't make any difference.
They are 2 years behind promised commercialization. While the company has some of the best minds in the business, management can't seem to get them to deliver anything of value other than more patents and promises of things to come. I'm not selling yet but will consider dumping all of it by year's end if no contracts; or at least an actual working bsi panel with improved efficiencies that is proven to cost less than conventional panels.
Very interesting. I don't know if this is a signal of better news to come or the opposite i.e. no news for a while but they want support for the sp. Liquidity remains a mystery to me and perhaps they want to send up some smoke signals and generate interest because they will need to dilute the equity with some kind of pp.
Regardless it can't really hurt the sp; and as they said support it once it climbs back over a buck.
You really are a waste of time. References to charts and recent announcements seem beyond your reading level. Other posters "feel" the same way, yet you only take time out of your day to try and belittle my post. Sorry, but your pathetic attempt at ridicule has failed. Better luck next time.
Nothing I can hang my hat on but there does seem to be something in the wind.The charts suggest another bump in the next 2-4 weeks and the past announcements do indicate that there will be some "real" activity in Rochester. Not certain if it will be the start of the chemical plant or a new announcement on an increase in efficiency but somethings seems in the works that should push up the sp.
I'm still not expecting a real big jump this year but I do believe, absent any major setbacks, we should clear $1 and move slowly upward throughout the year. However if we make some kind of breakthrough and/or get more than one contract, we could pass the target mark of $3 and blow through that next year as revenue comes in and more news is released about the tandem cell. JMHO.
I'm not going to count my chickens at this stage. It is very good news and emphasizes the commitment of the company to ongoing development. It's another piece of the puzzle; but until Natcore has a product that generates sales any talk of $5 a share is premature.
However once a Bsi cell is in use, and contracts get signed,the whole world will take notice, and a $5-$12 projection for the sp is bound to happen.
I'm in for the foreseeable future but am frustrated by the seemingly endless change of focus and new timelines. I understand this is new technology and there will be bumps along the way but we've been putting the suspension to the test the last two years.
Why are you so certain there will be royalty payments/revenue before the end of the year?
I'm a little confused by the direction the company is taking to put Bsi into production. For a year we heard about selling another AR box and getting contracts for that aspect of the business. Recently, however, there has been no indication that a contract is in the works and they are filing patents for a "new" process for single emitters and, by the way, looking for a 20,000 sq.ft. facility to, apparently, manufacture the chemicals needed for Bsi to work. The latest news release on the efficiency of the cells was 14.5% which is less than mentioned over 8 months ago i.e. 16%; and no indication of adapting the process to send it to NREL to increase it to over 18% which was their stated goal last year.
I presume an AR box is still necessary to make their "new" process work but Provimi has been strangely silent on that aspect of the business. When they bought a furnace to replicate the process of existing manufacturers I had my doubts. I thought Bsi and the Ar box was supposed to do away with the heat treatment part of the process. It sounds like they have found a way to use their new single emitter technology to increase the efficiency with at least part of the old technology. HMMMM? no word on a contract for the AR box and now a "new" process that uses in part old technology and a decision to build a warehouse to make the chemicals needed for it to work. It looks like the good ship Natcore is, once again, changing course. I just hope this time it reaches Port Profitability before the end of the year.
Sorry for the previous rant. Now as to Natcore WOW!This is the kind of news we have been waiting for; not the BIG one where they announce more than 17% efficiency and contracts but really good news. Very interested to read that they are expanding their facility to include manufacturing. I would like to know where the money is coming from to start a manufacturing process. Maybe my suspected PP is around the corner. I also suspect that the new selective emitter process will be invaluable in their attempts to create a tandem cell and might speed up that project.
Look for a nice move upward today and maybe tomorrow but as usual the shorties will sell once they have made their small profit and the sp will settle back down but above the recent lows. However if any of the MM take a real interest the sp could go back above $1 and stay there. The rest of 2013 looks very promising! GLTAL.
you clearly don't know anything about the junior mining sector. My comments were directed at that sector but the concept of large institutions driving down the price for their own benefit applies to all companies on the TSX-V. A lot of the problems are from "auto trades" by which computers using special algorithms can "frisbee" trades in a fraction of a second and drive down the price of a stock. See the article "high frequecy trading trips up junior mining stocks" for more explanation; also "over regulation strangling the TSXV" where Don Mosher a B&D consultant states: They (big banks)don't want the Venture market. They want to gather the assets that people have.If you want into the resource sector they are going to offer you an exchange traded fund or a fund they own." a further quote from an article titled "Will junior mining stocks be the investment of 2011" Bankers manipulate everything that has to do with gold and silver including major and intermediate mining stocks future contracts ETF's and junior mining stocks.In the past year it has been widely speculated that hedge funds have unfairly manipulated junior mining stocks downward by taking large short positions against them to hedge their long positions..."
I suspect you will say that all of these authors are crackpots and from outer space as you have demonstrated a complete disdain for any opinion not of your own creation. Stock manipulation is not new. It's just that the new computer age has exploited it beyond what was previously possible. Do I think there is a secret canal of men in black robes trying to control us... Of course not. Do I think large hedge funds and banks are using technology for their own gain and at the expense of the "average guy"... a resounding yes!
A bit off topic but it seems that there is a concerted effort by some unknown interests to close down the TSX V exchange. It is most apparent in the junior mining stocks. The chairman of the exchange has set up a website to protest the stringent over regulation of that sector which will prevent them from describing anything other than measured resources in their news releases and promotional material. They won't get funding if they can't show the potential of their deposits. Some authors speculate that they are trying to corner the exploration market and force everyone into an e-share fund of those juniors which they will have scooped up at bargain prices and take a controlling interest.
Natcore is different but it does seem like a lot of manipulation is being done to drive the value of ALL stocks on the Venture exchange down into the dirt. However all it will take is one stock like Natcore to come up with a commercially viable disruptive technology that can be translated into hundreds of millions in sales and the shorties will take a huge beating and the market will start to "normalize".
Predictions of a lower sp don't help the cause; but you have a point. There are some issues with getting the technology as efficient as promised and until they get resolved there will be no contracts. However the decision to purchase a furnace to replicate the specs of prospective customers is a positive sign that Natcore is still moving forward. All the experts agree that once the issues are resolved the technology will be a game changer. I would like to see the company get a private placement of a few million dollars to display support from investors in the company and provide it with the tools and manpower to overcome any remaining issues.The dilution would be worth it. We all need some encouragement to hang in there and hopefully Provimi can give us some good news in a few weeks.
The last line is interesting re: the impact of a disruptive technology impacting on the electricity industry. No mention of what it might be but Natcore's Bsi has had that label for some time now. The rise in solarcity's sp also holds out some promise that "if you build it they will come".
While it is frustrating to watch the sp dive, keep in mind that a LOT of people in the know are talking about the "disruptive technology" of black silicon. They believe it will only be a matter of time before it is a reality. The solar industry is in retreat but so are a lot of industries i.e. almost all the commodity stocks. No one will pay attention to a solar company until it has a new product that will revolutionize the field. Enter Natcore. I believe that once the current problems are resolved and contracts are signed the sp will rise dramatically; and once it is a proven winner with a tandem cell around the corner, this company will be a household name and the next "big thing".
At least some new developments since I last sent him an e-mail. The new furnace should help them to fine tune the process for the potential customers. I think everyone was getting impatient with their inability to ink a contract and improve the efficiencies. This development should take them a small step further in the process. It doesn't look like any significant news for another one or two months but, hey, this is a new process and an eureka! moment might be around the corner.
Thanks but give some credit to Tom Scarpa. He didn't try and hype the information. I just passed on his reply to my inquiry as to the status of BSi. I suspect the entire company is also frustrated with the slow pace of development. At this stage they have to wait on the big players to commit money in terms of building the AR box and settle on the specs to build the more efficient Bsi panel before much of anything else can take place. If they had a lot more cash they could build it themselves which is why I asked about a PP. They aren't going ahead with one at this time which suggests that something is in the works but perhaps one of the parties doesn't like the terms of a proposed contract and they are still negotiating. Hopefully things will get cleared up in a month or two.
Tom Scarpa replied to my e-mail. He was very polite but really there's nothing new to report. However he did clarify a few points. Firstly, the increase in efficiency work at NREL isn't very far along. Apparently some problems with different manufacturers having different specs and they need to produce a panel that will work with all of the different systems. They hope to start work with NREL very shortly. The good news is that a number of manufacturers are taking an active interest in the Bsi cells.
The specs for the second AR box are ready but they won't give Microtech the go ahead until they get a manufacturer to sign an agreement to build it. To use Tom's words they won't do it on spec. However they are hopeful that a contract will be signed "shortly". Once signed the second AR box will take 6 weeks to build.
He sounded a little cautious about when the Bsi panels will be commercially available. He pointed out a lot of the steps needed to accomplish that goal and it sounds like it might be a little further away than we would like.
On other fronts, they are expanding the research facilities in Rochester and hope to have all of their researchers under one roof to work on all their projects. The tandem cell is still "18-24 months away" which has been their timeline for a year or so but Tom emphasized that with all the work being done in one place it should speed things up.
No immediate plans for a private placement but they hope to list on the OTCQB in the U.S. and might have to do one at that time as it is, in Tom's words, like an IPO.
My thoughts. We won't see a significant rise in the sp until they sign the manufacturing contract; and that won't happen until they get the Bsi over the current 16.5% (tom's number) efficiency. No timelines but probably no real news for several (2-4) months. However they are working with more than one manufacturer and that means that the industry has some faith in the cell. Consolidating the research has to be helpful and will probably speed up the timelines. ANY contract this year will be a good thing and once that happens it means things will accelerate and my own timeline of full commercialization in 2014 looks viable. Listing on another exchange and some kind of IPO or PP will get more attention from potential investors and I suspect the timing will center around signing a contract and that should all push the sp well over a dollar and maybe approach $2. It's tough to sit and wait but there appears to be the usual snail's pace of progress.
I plan to contact Tom again in about 6-8 weeks if no PR in the interim. GLTAL.
Already sent them an e-mail. I'll post any response. Cheers.
The company has been pretty quiet for some time. Other than the TSX release, nothing at all. Timelines don't really mean anything but some update on the progress both on the AR box and the work with NREL on improving the efficiencies would be nice. No one has put any questions to management for a while so maybe now is a good time? Even the stock reply of "soon" or "shortly" would probably help the sp.
A lot of really good stocks are very undervalued. I don't agree that the TSXV is dead but a lot of the money has gone elsewhere. However so long as your company is properly capitalized with a good product and good management the profits will be there down the road.
I'm invested in two other companies on TSXV that have tremendous potential and will pay off ONCE they go into production, but right now no one is interested because everyone is scared of anything remotely resembling a risk. I said earlier that Natcore's stock might go up to about $3 sometime this year and still believe that but the really big money will be in 2014. Same goes for my other stocks. Once the contracts are signed and there is cash flow the bigger players see less risk and will jump back into the market. Hang in there and, if possible, be patient.
Ditto. GLTAL.
I'm not certain the sp would be over $1.05 on three consecutive days without some positive news. While we all know not to accept any timelines from the company they did suggest that the second AR box would be ready by the end of the first quarter of 2013. I think that's the first "news" that could spur a move to the next level.The efficiency issue has to be resolved before the end of the second quarter IMO or there will be another drop below $1. The second box is to be put into a production line and there's no point unless you are going to produce the commercially viable Bsi. Hopefully the eggheads at NREL and on our team can get it done pronto. A commercially viable, mass produced, Bsi panel with an efficiency over 18% would be HUGE news and the sp would really take off i.e. over $3. As more contracts came in and more news is released about the first generation of tandem cells it would go to somewhere around $5-$7. Not going to happen anytime soon but might be at the $3 level by the end of the year and $5-$7 or greater by mid 2014. All JMO.
We are at the 200 day moving average and have strength above .90. Might be another bump upward with continuing strength above $1 in the next few weeks.... and no real news. Looking forward to the next 6 months.
As we all know its one thing to produce a result in the lab and quite another to make it commercially viable. Provimi said a year or so ago that there is a new development in the solar cell almost every week but few ever get it into production. We are in a bit of a race to get the Bsi into production but we are closer than most to the finish line. However once that happens there will be an ongoing stream of our new products every year or so. The knowledge acquired through this process will accelerate the development of other products. That's why the company's sp should skyrocket sometime in the next 12-18 months. JMO.
What is it about the patent that leads you to that conclusion?
The Solar News reported on Monday that a dutch research team has applied an atomic coating to Bsi and greatly increased its efficiency. This is the problem Natcore has faced for a long time. Hopefully we can utilize their research to get a cell into production this year.
Perhaps we are talking of the same thing from different perspectives. We were advised some time ago about the "holy grail" in LPD silicon cell fabrication having something to do with overcoming "dangling" molecules( apologies if I'm mistaken about the exact scientific terminology)leading to efficiency loss. That's why MX wasn't interested in the tandem cell; Natcore hadn't figured out a way around that problem. Bottom line is getting a Bsi panel that is more efficient and costs less to manufacture. I think Natcore is close(relatively speaking given past promises)to this milestone. Hopefully it is in commercial production before the end of the year and if so, 2014 will be a very good year for all of us.
No panels can be built until they overcome the efficiency problem. Currently it's about 16.9% based on the last information from the company. That's less than the current percentage of conventional panels by about .02-4%. In order to make significant inroads into the existing market they need,in my opinion, at least an efficiency of 17.7% or higher; and the increase must be cost effective and possible using the AR box. NREL has a financial interest in making this work but they aren't as familiar with the LPD process as Natcore and Dr. Flood has other irons in the fire and isn't working with them at their labs. All of the above suggests it will take some time to get it right; but when it does it will be magic. A Bsi with about 18% or higher at half the cost and no tracking equipment required would be a major shift in the economics of using solar. Lots of contracts and AR boxes being built and that's just the beginning. All small companies with great products take time and especially when it is "disruptive technology". Rushing it can be disastrous so be patient and hang in there.
I had a hunch it was something like that. Thanks for the reply. On another note the volume and strength suggests something is up other than the announcement. Pure speculation but it could be the efficiency results, another AR box being built, a new milestone in the tandem cell or even some news about R2R. The next 6 months should be very exciting.
Thanks Don. Any idea on why the resolution is being brought up again? Didn't pass the first time?
A long way to go before even $5 a share is possible. However if they have made a breakthrough in efficiency and get those panels out the door and into the market before the end of the year the SP could very easily exceed $5. If we ever do reach twice the efficiency at half the cost the SP goes ballistic. Throw in an announcement about the tandem cell or R2R and someone would have to pay a massive premium to buy the company.
When was that and what was the result of the vote? Thanks.
Very interesting and a little disturbing. While it says it isn't in anticipation of any takeover or hostile bid the timing is strange. The company has, thus far, resisted all efforts to buy into a controlling stake through JV's etc. so any suggestion that they would consider being bought out is troubling. Either someone has floated a very generous scenario which is 4-5 times (or perhaps more) the current SP or the company has realized they will never be able to successfully market black silicon and want out asap. Personally I doubt any offer could be more than $3-$4 a share as the company has no track record, no clients and no sales. $3 a share is a lot if the company thinks they should cut and run (and if the technology doesn't work why would anyone want the company or pay remotely close to a multiple of the current SP) but chicken feed if they are close to a major breakthrough and becoming the next First Solar. All very puzzling. Hopefully some kind of PR or letter from the President will be forthcoming(and pronto) so we can all sleep a little easier at night.
Any number is very speculative but Nick Hodge suggested $20 a share. A lot of factors but primarily the cost and efficiency of a mass produced black solar cell and market conditions. If it takes the entire solar industry by storm and becomes the "gold standard" AND a tandem cell is a reality in 2015 then you might be able to double the $20 figure. However if there is resistance to changing existing manufacturing processes for any number of reasons and it is not accepted by the industry as a whole then the price (absent further breakthroughs that are commercially viable)will probably be half or less than the $20 number. We will have a much better idea of the number once they have sales and contracts as we can then apply a P/E ratio based on the industry and get a better idea of the ultimate number. Still all just wild speculation and only MHO.
Natcore has always moved forward but at a snail's pace. They have publicly stated that they will, for the foreseeable future, remain as a R&D company; but expect sales this year. The key is getting the efficiency above 18% in a viable, commercially produced, process. Natcore has always preached that they can make solar commercially viable without government subsidies and they need to reach at least 18-19% efficiency with a cheaper process to reach that goal. I expect the efficiency is problematic given this is a new technology and they don't want to use high temperatures. However NREL has a lot of resources and I suspect it will happen sometime this year. The AR box will probably be ready before the cell so once the target efficiency is reached I suspect the commercialization of a mass produced panel will happen within a reasonable time frame i.e. sometime before the end of the year.
I don't anticipate any huge surge in the SP until that happens but once that event is reached, more news about tandem cells, and possibly R2R, will get everyone wanting to jump on the bandwagon. While I believe 2013 will be a good year for the company and the SP, I have always targeted 2014 as the "breakout" year for the SP reaching some lofty heights.
All JMHO.
Very interesting. Natcore has hired a number of people over the last 6 months(as they said they would) and seem confident that there will be a market for their product. A specialist to work with China and now one for Europe. Very ambitious for a small company. Something is up and it promises to be well worth the wait.
Things are really quiet. Anyone have any news, rumors, scuttlebutt?