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RSI 5,1 and confirm it with, in order, rsi 14, 1, rsi 14,13, and fast sto 14,3
df
Geez, I think someone needs to smack me upside the head. I'm extremely euphoric right now over the NDX.
Green tomorrow at anytime is an f-ing gift, imo.
Please give me a green open and I'll triple my SQQQ position.
Am I missing something? Am I crazy?
df
Alright, I couldn't resist! I'm in @ 35.91 (SQQQ).
I have an EXTREME overbought reading on my favorite indicator for $NDX.
Wish me luck!
df
Hi Fletch,
I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect $38.20 for SQQQ on a pullback in $NDX. If the $NDX is green at the close and opens green tomorrow, that would be a "gift", imo. One I couldn't pass up.
I'm going to try for a small position in SQQQ today. And, add to it tomorrow. That's the plan, anyhow. :>)
df
Yes, I sold UPRO @ 122.47 this morning. I'll look to re-enter in a few days.
Looking to enter SQQQ for a short term trade. There's an open gap @ 37.87 , 40.29 and 41.14 on the daily chart. Currently trading @ 35.62
df
DUST gap filled. :>)
2182 (S&P 500)
I have a wave 3 ending @2182.
Let me explain: In my previous post, the 3 ending at 1994 is the w3 of a Wave 1.
2182 would be a 3 of 3.
S&P 500 Outlook: I've got 5 waves down on the daily chart from 1991.39 to 1904.78 (July 24 through August 8)
In my experience, after 5 waves down, a very nice move follows.
I have a wave 1 from 1904.78 to 1944.90. A quick one day wave 2 to 1928.29
This current move from 1928.29, should take us to 1993.20, in a wave 3.
As usual, all imho, let's sit back and see how this unfolds.
df
P.S.: Expiry on Friday. :>)
Delete.
(Double posted. Sorry!)
Looks like a good area to buy DUST. I bought this morning @ 15.4848. looking for the gap @ 16.30 to fill.
IMHO,
df
Looks like it was a little covering near the close. :>)
1/2 hour of trading left today.
Will shorts cover for the weekend... or... push their luck with their profits and hold through the weekend...?
Will the shorts over stay their welcome....?
Hi Fletch,
I'm fine. I hope you are, too.
Bought XIV in afterhours tonight. I'm in @ 39.14
I'm going to go out on a limb here, due to the VIX 7 day ROC, and call today's close a LOW on a closing basis: $Spx.c 1930.76
Now, let's sit back and see how this unfolds. :>)
All IMHO,
df
I'm still looking for 2070 on the $spx.c
If I see anything else, I'll post an update.
df
This is expiry week. I wouldn't be surprised to see the $NDX hit 3619 and the S&P 500 hit 1829 before resuming the upward path to the w3 targets I posted earlier today.
df
O.K., the target I had in my notes dated 03-04-2014, is 2039.
So, I'm looking for a 3rd leg up on the S&P 500 to end between 2039-2075.
If the 03-14-2014 low gets challenged now, I'll go back and recalculate and post it here.
df
Again, assuming we put in a "2" down on the 14th, I've got a target of 4143 for the $NDX.
Hi Fletch,
I've got a target of 2075 -/+ a few points. That's using fib and assuming we've put in a 2 down on 03-14-2014.
I'll update if I see anything different. I'm not home now, but somewhere I believe I have written down a target of 2205 for the S&P 500.
df
If this pullback stops around the 1806 area, I believe the S&P 500 will go to 1982 +/- a few points.
Also, I have a target of 43.30 for XIV.
FWIW,
df
What kind of fish are you fishing for? I haven't fished in 25 yrs or so.
I used to fish the Lake Erie Western Basin for walleye and perch. Tolling or drifting in a boat worked best. Never had any luck from shore.
Was just thinking yesterday how I'd like to go walleye fishing again sometime.
Anyhow, maybe we started a nice rally here today. I've been trading XIV the past few days and a couple of VXX trade mixed in yesterday.
df
Anyone think the Fed will provide us with a rocket launch around 2:15 p.m. today...?
Could go green, then go negative leading up to the end of the meeting, then blast off.
Or, green until meeting end and then sell off....
Fun times!
Fletch,
Looks like British money will becoming our way, too:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
I was looking for 101.61 on UDOW. It hit 101.14 (so far!) today. I'm in @ 102.54
Looking to buy xiv in the 32.70-33.15 area.
Lots of earnings next week by tech companies. Could be the excuse to hit 4113 on the $comp.
I believe the DOW is leading and will turn and go higher before the naz and sp500.
Emerging markets getting taken to the woodshed. I think some of that money finds it's way into U.S. stocks.
df
Looks o me like the $comp is heading to 4113.75
Also, looks like the DOW wants to rally from here.
Seems like the DOW is leading the other market. Peaked higher, now making a low before the naz and sp500.
fwiw,
df
DUDES!
Fletch,
Hope your wife is well, as well as yourself.
Cort,
Good to hear from you.
And a shout out to wahz, where he is (lol!)
Nice call. How have you been, Fletch? Good to hear from you. Hope everyone else from the thread is doing well, too.
Wahz, you there? How are you doing.. still in the US or are you in England? Seems I remember you have/had property in Australia. I hope you are well.
df
An strange dream this morning:
I woke up this morning than fell right back to sleep. I had a dream that the markets were in the green, then I checked my computer screen and saw the markets were in the red. It didn't register at first. Then I realized the Dow was down over 1000 points! IIRC, the Dow was down 1099.95 points. Later on when I checked my screen, the Dow had finished up 89 points and change.
A flash crash...?
Should be interesting this week as the markets are trading in a sideways pattern. They could break either way.
df
APPL going to 273, imo. It's currently in a wave 3 down. Min. down is 396 (w3 = w1); Max down 273 (w3 = w1x1.618).
Will be interesting to watch this one play out. I'll be watching this one from the sideline.
df
I have not had (what I call) an extreme oversold condition on the SP 500 monthly chart since September of 2011.
In the mean time, I've gotten 2 extreme overbought conditions on the monthly chart: Jan-March 2012; and September 2012.
Currently, if we close this month higher than 1426.19, that will give me another extreme overbought reading for the SP 500 monthly chart. Still, no extreme oversold condition between Jan 2012 and now.
Is the third time the charm...? Are we due for sizeable correction after this month to give me an extreme oversold condition...? I hope so. It will be healthy for the markets and allow us to go higher (which I belive we will).
The markets are pretty strong heading into this weekend. Any pullback may be small and quick (1% or so). We may not get an extreme oversold condition till March, or possibly not till the May-June time frame.
I'm watching the 1492 area to be met, then a pullback. Hopefully, 2% or so, but I have my doubts (!).
df
Let's call it 1512 on the S&P 500. That's the number I got today when using Fib. I don't know how I came up with 1516.58
Today I came up with 1511.724, to be exact.
So, 1510, +/- 5 points.
When we get there, more than likely, I'll go to cash and wait for the next pullback.
Well, here it is, Feb. 28th, 2012 and the S&P 500 stands around 1370.
My Fib work tells me to expect 1516.58 before a corrective wave begins.
So, it looks like any pullback will be shallow until that level is reached.
Silver (SLV) on a tear. M. Armstrong looking for a closing above 43.50 (spot price)on the monthly to confirm a break out.
I still see quite of bit of upside left in this rally on the weekly and monthly SLV charts.
I have the daily (SLV) as being in extreme overbought territory. However, it could stay that way up to another 4 days. Five days total, with today being day 1.
How's everyone doing.....? It's quiet around these parts... :>)
The S&P 500 low should be around 1145, but could be as low as 1127.
But, we'll see. The low should be in by Monday the 28th's close.
Here's my SGITR*prediction for the Sp 500:
I believe, from my research, that the October 27th high will be taken out when this low is finalized (between today and Monday the 28th).
I'm looking for 1379 give or take 10 points. I have no time frame, but I'll say by Feb 10, 2012.
Let's sit back and see what happens....
*smartest guy in the room (lol!)
SP 500 not even near oversold yet on the daily and weekly charts.. I'm a little surprised after today.
Let's get a quick dump next week and then move on. The monthly chart has been in oversold condition for 3 consecutive months. The most I've seen it has been 4 months.
Once the weekly hit oversold, I will look to go long.
Hopefully, a big flush out next week. :>)
BINGO! Gap filled.