I have not had (what I call) an extreme oversold condition on the SP 500 monthly chart since September of 2011.
In the mean time, I've gotten 2 extreme overbought conditions on the monthly chart: Jan-March 2012; and September 2012.
Currently, if we close this month higher than 1426.19, that will give me another extreme overbought reading for the SP 500 monthly chart. Still, no extreme oversold condition between Jan 2012 and now.
Is the third time the charm...? Are we due for sizeable correction after this month to give me an extreme oversold condition...? I hope so. It will be healthy for the markets and allow us to go higher (which I belive we will).
The markets are pretty strong heading into this weekend. Any pullback may be small and quick (1% or so). We may not get an extreme oversold condition till March, or possibly not till the May-June time frame.
I'm watching the 1492 area to be met, then a pullback. Hopefully, 2% or so, but I have my doubts (!).
df
