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Nice site, I added it to my favorites
elichen, R2R is short hand for roll to roll. It may or may not be stage two of Natcore's progress. It is a process proposed by Natcore for making cheap solar with the equipment that is similar to, or same as, what was once used by film companies that made film for our cameras. Although there is some noise being made about Kodak undertaking this endeavor, I would ascert that there are many companies in the US that could just as easily take on this project, 3M comes to mind, as one of the larger ones, with the equipment and expertise.
At the moment Natcore has the license for Black Silicon, and the pollution free inexpensive anti reflective coatings. It's only a matter of time before someone in the industry adopts this technology in their manufacturing process. What we know now is that several companies have shown interest in the technology Natcore possesses. What we are all waiting for is the announcement that one has taken the plunge and cut a deal with Natcore.
From what I can decipher from Natcore's periodic statements, is that they are not interested in any loans, government or otherwise. They would be happy to accept any grants though. I believe they will succeed just on the merit of their current technology at present, without any grants or loans.
Natcore's Anti Reflective coatings, combined with NREL's etched wafers is the next step to greater PV efficiencies, so it stands to reason that it is only a matter of time before it is adopted.
We already know that MX is interested in Natcore's technology, and they have received a contract to build a large solar complex in Serbia, which is already funded. My guess is that testing of the Black Silicon is being done now. We also know the Chinese are interested, especially because of the lack of pollution in the coating process, remember earlier this year a plant was closed there by protestors, over the issue of pollution.
Sure, everyone wants the share price to go up, everyone wants to see some announcement that Natcore's technology has been bought. For some it can't happen soon enough. As for me, I have faith it will happen, and the low share prices now, are an opportunity. The worst that can happen is that Natcore will fail and the stock will be worthless. Then we will all have to look for something new to speculate in. C'est la vie.
Hello Dontplayer, I think you might want to return the $20, as I feel you have misinterpreted Teq's reply. I don't believe Teq has any sensitivity to the oil industry, quite the contrary. Teq has made it clear, he is a speculator first and foremost, as well as part time board lampoonist. I may be an oddity, but I always look forward to his posts!
I certainly hope our banter doesn't raise the ire of the board moderators. But in regards to Rockefeller and oil industry there is a rather Quixotic documentary on the Internet that delves into that subject, titled "Thrive" it is free, and some may find it interesting.
It is no measure of health to be "well adjusted" to a profoundly sick society. Natcore is a natural medicine, that can bring healing to us all.
"When the oil industry thrives it is hard to introduce innovations because "If it isn't broke why fix it?" attitude."
Teq, you bring up a very salient point! If the people that recently spent so much time, energy and money to fight the Keystone XL pipeline, or are spending to fight fracking, were to spend half the time, energy and money promoting companies like "Natcore," there wouldn't be the necessity for the never ending battles with the oil/petrochemical industries.
Chuck says he needs 15 to 25 million to develop R2R. I can't find any figures on how much was spent to fight Keystone, but all those movie stars and other celebrities didn't get to the White House by Greyhound bus. I suppose fighting and protesting the oil industry will still get us to solar in the end, but it seems to be the path of the most resistance.
Dontplayer, your niece should consider herself fortunate to have a progressive minded Uncle such as yourself, and might want to consider reflecting on her own shortcomings, instead of yours.
Hello Dontplayer, I have been here all along, just haven't have much to say. Also, I have been busy checking out all the good blog sites that were posted a few days ago. Thanks to all of you that shared those!
Yes, I think it was the DOE that gave Chuck the cold shoulder. But then, we must take into consideration that the people that are part of the DOE, are also part of that revolving door between energy corporations and government bureaucracy. I would venture to say that the DOE jobs are filled by people who have strong ties to the Oil and Coal industries. The last thing they want to see is someone who has the killer app for cheaper solar energy, that would make many of us energy independent. For then, we would need neither the DOE or the filthy industries they faithfully represent in Washington.
But alas, although the DOE may not have given Chuck the time of day in regards to a grant, that doesn't mean they didn't get on the phone and call every one of their cronies that have a Venture Capital fund or Hedge fund. As you may recall, Chuck has been offered many financing deals. All of which so far he has wisely turned down.
On the question of volume, not all the shares traded show up on the boards that we generally view. Back in February I added a substantial amount of shares of NTCXF to my accounts, and none of the trades were shown on the daily volume. So today's volume could have been 8000, or it could have been a lot more.
Furthermore the bid and ask is not always accurate. For example there were times when the board would show 50,000 shares at an ask of .44 and I would enter a bid for the ask price, and it would not fill.
As for the charts, I don't know how they could help, if you can't get accurate daily volumes.
It is my understanding that Natcore is only interested in grants, not loans. I believe they have been offered loans, from private parties, and refused them.
Teq... LOL Okay I stand corrected, so now Natcore is the Platinum Standard.
MRPANCAKE, wow! Nice interview, good questions! Makes one wonder if Natcore hasn't hired a PR firm, with all the good publications lately.
Kungfu1, I agree with much of what you said. I remember a while back that Microtech put out some PR saying they were working on something related to Natcore's technology.
Using the numbers you got from the Twin Creeks article, and considering our cells will be a bit more efficient, then working 3 shifts, 5 days a week should produce somewhere near 1 megawatt a week.
From what it looks like now, our AR coated Black Silicon wafers will indeed be the Gold Standard of the industry. I believe that was Natcore's stated goal some time back.
Teq, your guess is as good as mine.
"We are already working with two equipment manufacturers to design a production tool," says Natcore President and CEO Chuck Provini. "The tool would make 2,000 black silicon wafers per hour. We'll establish other parameters in our lab. When the design is completed, we'll take orders for the tool." Do they need two manufacturers to make one tool or are they making two tools?
Can anyone help me put my head around the meaning of 2000 wafers an hour? How many wafers does it take to make a watt of electricity?
This sounds to me as some sort of pilot project at the very least. I wouldn't venture to guess when this tool(s) may be operational. Sounds to me like they are in some stage of having it built, then it must go to Rochester to be fine tuned.
"US solar cell maker Natcore Technology (CVE:NXT) said on Monday that chemical engineering technician Ted Zubil has been promoted to the position of director of operations."
There must be something in the works beyond the scale of research and development, if they need a director of operations.
Mr Pancake, excellent article, thanks for sharing!
Meanwhile Enphase had a rather successful IPO last Friday.
Naterey, I found your post most interesting and thought provoking. I like the "right brain" view, i.e. the big picture.
It brings to mind, what are we looking at presently? I believe not so long ago there was an announcement that MX sealed a deal to build a 2.3 billion PV facility in Serbia, being financed by Securum Equity.
What is 2.3 billion, something like 2,300 million? How was it that MX was able to seal that kind of deal? Was it their Italian charm and world class technical acumen? Or were they able to show an ace, with the distinct likelyhood of turning over a few more?
I have some questions bouncing around in my head again. If you are MX and have the inside connection to black silicon, are you going to start the Serbian project without using it?
Also, I ponder this, and excuse me if these are dumb questions, but, let's say MX is using Natcore's technology, and already adding it to their manufacturing lines. Would it be possible for them to do this, and not make any public announcement, and the shareholders learn nothing of it until the quarterly report when revenues are reported?
Another question I have, when a company like MX gets a contract for a 2.3 billion dollar project that is going to take 6 years to build, will the first solar panel they install be identical to the last one? Or do they just have to provide a preset amount of megawatts?
Dontplayer, I want to thank you as well for enlightening us with your presence on this board! I was just looking at a photo of my great great grndfather holding me on his knee around my first birthday and his 96th. He homesteaded in the great plains, retired when he was 47, and bought a pool hall with his son-in-law, and spent his retirement playing billards. and died a year after that photo was taken at 97. Legend has it, that he was sharp as a tack, drove himself around in the latest jalopies, and cared for himself until his dying day. I hope your legend is to play the market for at least as many years as he played billards.
Dontplayer, I like your vision. I have a vision too, I keep seeing a 20 story office building with Natcore in big letters across the top of it.
I also concur that $100 may be a little on the light side, but I wouldn't venture to say when. It is true Natcore has an extensive arsenal. I believe once they get the ball rolling, growth will be exponential.
Frankly, I like the share price where it is right now, and won't be disappointed if it stays there a little longer. As it has enabled me to accumulate a substantial position without risking my core. If not, I do have a bit of dry powder saved up, and when the deals are consumated, I plan to let loose with a thunderous broadside.
Dontplayer, I know you weren't being critical of my post, there are some on this board that are sensitive to off topic subjects, it was intended for their eyes. I find your board etiquette to be exemplary, sorry if you felt my comment was directed towards you.
North of $100? I will be elated if the share price is north of $10 by then. Some time back, there was a video on the Internet that told the story of Chuck going to Washington, and getting the cold shoulder. That is when I became interested in Natcore, and I have been investing slowly since that time. Over the last 2 years, I have grown to appreciate the company, and I have the utmost respect for management!
Sure, I dream of a high share price like anyone else, but another part of me sees what low cost solar can mean to our country and the world. Natcore is a company I believe is doing their best to make this world a better place for all of us! That is why I am glad to support it in a small way, as an investor.
Hello Dontplayer, I have been following and accumulating NTCXF for about the same amount of time, and continue to add every 6 weeks.
As for TwinCreeks, I was curious if Natcore's tech could be added to theirs to make an even cheaper PV cell. I got my answer. There were some others on the board that had asked me to share it, so I did. I won't bring up again.
"I wrote to Natcore on the 14th of this month regarding Twin Creeks and have yet to receive a reply."
Here is the reply:
It is interesting that you brought up Twin Creeks. As it turns out, Dennis and Daniele Margadonna, the CTO of our Joint Venture partner in Italy, MX Solar, have been discussing them. Their understanding is that they are no longer trying to manufacture solar cells but are instead trying to sell their custom equipment to others to make the separated wafers to use as solar cell substrates. They say that they can replace the saws, furnaces and cell finishing equipment with their ion implant machine. Because this ion implanter emits protons it must be shielded for safety reasons. Also, it sounds like the capital cost of re tooling the fabrication facility may be somewhat prohibitive. Each machine can produce only 1.5 million wafers a year. That means that manufacturers with hundred of megawatts of c-Si capacity would have to buy scores of these multi-million-dollar machines if electing to make this shift in the production process. Given the present low cost of polysilicon, I think that manufacturers will be reluctant to make that kind of capital outlay. In any case, both Dennis and Daniele have basically come to the conclusion that they are a bit skeptical. Especially since Twin Creeks admits that they have the economics worked out, provided they can make better than 28% efficient panels. I never try to discount any technology and neither do our scientists but in this case I am a bit skeptical myself. We’ll keep an eye on them and see what develops.
Thanks again for your interest in Natcore. I hope this answers you questions.
Tom
teq0904, Yes, I remember that post as well. Like you and many others on this board, we often browse the technical reviews, and are ever on the lookout for new technologies.
Certainly if even a small fraction of the announced world saving technologies, i.e. solar, wind, methane hydrate, (methanol) hydrogen, cold fusion came on line, we'd be awash in cheap clean limitless energy. LOL
I am aware that my question concerning Twin Creeks, may not even be revelant. But perennial wisdom tells us, ask and ye shall receive, thus my belief that it can't hurt to ask, and it is why I brought the question to the board, and to Natcore.
I feel that from the information published, TC is not some new wishy washy dream, as they have the machines ready for delivery, and have made some bold claims as to reducing the cost of producing PV cells.
My basic question was, and still is. can this technology be used in conjunction with Natcore's, or is it non compatible, and we will find TC to be a formidable competitor?
Teq, I would like to add, that I admire your vast wealth of investment knowledge, and your no nonsense, pragmatic approach, and I do appreciate all your posts. That said, I must also add that a few of your replies have made me cringe. You are a very gifted individual! I hope that you will have some compassion for those of us less gifted, and that some of your comments will be a little more kind hearted in the future.
Natscore, Tom Scarpa replied, and here is the body of his reply:
....."My only observation is that creating a thinner wafer isn’t the issue. If the antireflective coating has to be applied in a thermal vacuum furnace, the way commercial cells are coated now, then the thinner wafers will be damaged. I’m sure that Dennis knows more about this than I do so as soon as I hear from him I’ll pass his comments on to you."
Hopefully Dennis Flood will review Twin Creeks technology and give us some comment. I have to say that the Twin Creeks technology sounds quite interesting, and promising! My basic question is, can the two technologies compliment each other? Or do we look forward to them in competition with each other?
Dontplayer, this is exactly what came to my mind as well. My question is: Can Twin Creeks new super thin cells be utilized with, or enhanced by the black silicon process and the AR process, or does it even need it? It seems to me, that a combination of the two processes could be more efficient, at less than half the cost, if all the claims made are true. If the two processes can work together, the outcome would certainly leave current manufacturing processes obsolete.
Half the cost is here now.
Yesterday Twin Creeks Technologies-Hyperion, announced they have a process for making PV wafers much thinner, and flexible. They are claiming to reduce the cost of manufacturing by 50% If anyone is interested in reading about it, here is the link.
http://www.twincreekstechnologies.com/technology/hyperion.html
I wrote to Natcore today, and asked if this process might be compatible with the black silicon and AR technology.
I thought some on this board might find the new breakthrough technology interesting. They claim to have the machines ready to go now, and license.
Nice video, thanks for sharing! As the word about Natcore spreads, it will be nice when we are no longer the technology of the future, and become the technology of the present!
It could be, Securum Equities signed the deal with Serbia Nov. 17,2011. I presume this news release means that Securum has picked MX Group to supply the PV cells, and we can only hope MX group chooses to use Natcore's black silicon for the installation in Serbia.
If I were a large PV manufacturer, I am not so sure I would want Natcore announcing to the world and my competition that I was putting in equipment to save money while producing a superior product. I'd rather my competition found out when my product is suddenly in the market place, blowing theirs away in sales.
In the month of January I doubled my holdings in NTCXF, and if someone were to sell that many shares in a short period of time, I am thinking there will be a great opportunity to double my holdings yet again.
I would be surprised to see any deals announced next week or even the week after. Representatives are coming to look at the AR machine in the lab, I would think they would take their findings back with them and have some more meetings back home.
Of the three, I wonder if there are any opinions on who will sign a deal first? My money is on the Chinese signing first. I also feel when one deal gets finished, things will start to move rather quickly.
This is no longer just an experiment, it is an American built,functioning, high tech machine on display in a $20 million lab. A machine that can reduce energy usage, cut pollution, and produce a more efficient product doesn't need a sales savvy CEO to market it, the machine will sell itself. What is does need is a hard nosed CEO to be sure we extract the most revenue for the use of our IP.
GLTA
I can tell you first hand they are NOT happy to be dormed. My wife was one of the first Chinese to move to the new economic zone of Shenzhen. She lived in one of those dorms at first, and it was such a terrible experience it is hard to get her to talk about. But because she had an engineering degree, and a limited knowledge of English she rose above the factory sweatshop and advanced to management.
She and her best friend would go out every day after work, and roam the city, for two reasons, one was to get the hell out of the stinky dorm, and the other was knock on every door of every condo, and ask if they had a room to rent. This process took months, before they found a single room they could rent.
Later as she progressed she was able to buy a Condo, but only because she was fortunate to be educated, and be in the right place at the right time,and very frugal saving most of her salary.
Chinese factory management workers are typically paid partially in check, and partially in cash. Why? So the company can get out of paying the full SS tax.
It is true, you would have to provide sleeping quarters to get the better workers, or depending on the location, to get any workers at all. Not only that you would have to provide meals as well, it is common practice for all Chinese megafactories to provide houseing and food. NONE of the workers are happy to be dormed, it is just a fact of life, if you want to work in a factory.
The rent is not too high in China, there is nothing to rent. People that buy Condos, buy them for cash, as a supposed safe haven for their money, as real estate in China has never crashed. They keep them empty for a reason, so they hold their value. To rent them would diminish their value over time due to wear and tear. There are few factory workers that can afford what the rent would be for the investors to make a reasonable return on their investment. My inlaws have 3 condos, they are kept empty and remain in the brand new condition as when they were built. Crazy? yes!
Dear Board, some of us here are taking this negativity much too far. As I have yet to meet anyone with a good working crystal ball, things are what they are. For example, yesterday my brother in law and I decided to move a palm tree that was growing too close to a concrete fence. We figured it would only take a few hours to finish this project, and indeed we got the tree moved in a few hours. But in the meantime we broke the irrigation pipe, no problem, an easy fix. Until today when I started to dig, I learned that the irrigation pipe was laid before the foundation for the wall was poured. Now completion of this project is going to take several more hours.
I realize it is disheartening when the CEO projects a company to have revenue by last September, but then plans changed along the way, instead of having China build the ARBox, we had it built here, then when we got it to the lab, we discovered the lab was not up to code. Stuff happens.
There are no commercial working ARBoxes as of yet, that we know of. Natcore in their wisdom, wanted to get one working here, in our own lab first. There is a good reason for this. Let's say we built and delivered 5 of them last month. And it turns out, there are some small problems. The company who just paid big dollars for them, and has shut down a production line, wants it working no sooner than yesterday. But wait, Natcore has no experienced technicians to send, they haven't been trained yet, most possibly not even hired. Our esteemed scientists can't be expected to travel to China, Italy or wherever else, to be putting out small fires, and fine tuning the ARBoxes.
Hence the decision to get one going here, first, play with it a while, test it, fine tune it, and have engineers who are familiar with it. Then there is a much better chance of the transition in a customers production line going more smoothly. And if problems should arise, we will have some experienced people to send to work out any problems.
Yes, this means a delay in revenue, but it is also good business practice. Once one of these boxes goes online, that company is going to have reduced costs, AND the most efficient product. The company with the ARBox can say, we can sell you these panels cheaper than our competitor, and guess what, they work better too!
Working in the transportation of state of the art machinery for years, I have seen the folly of rushing a project so many times, you can almost expect it. Machines get to the factory before they is ready for them, or other problems arise. Once I delivered a pharmaceutical machine, the fork lift they rented was oh so big enough to lift the machine and move it quickly into place, unfortunately the fork lift, after being totally disinfected with alcohol, turned out to be too high to fit through the loading dock door.... I have great respect for a company that dots their 'i's, and crosses their 't's.
How often have we been told such and such concept car is going to be on the showroom floor, next year, only to wait 3 years for it?
My assessment is that Natcore is doing the right thing. The first install, can be the one that makes or breaks a company, if there are problems, you'll have a irate customer, and word spreads fast, and you're reputation is ruined. Through my life experience it is always better to err on the side of caution, rather than hurry a project and make a bigger mess! I've seen it work both ways, and erring on the side of caution is a tried and true method of doing the job right, and developing a good reputation. Customer satisfaction is not only the key to success, it is the key to survival!
Let's get the machine in our lab, working, with technicians becoming familiar with the process, tben ship them, with confidence, knowing they work, having the technicians available to take charge of the turnkey process, then sit back and watch the revenues flow. Would you buy a Mercedes that hadn't first been taken to the proving grounds, and had the tar beat out of it?
Yes, it is painful to see our time lines pass us by! Yes, the Chairman's recent letter was lame! Yes, it is painful to wait, and wait for that announcement we all want to hear. If and when, this company takes off, and I am leaning more towards the 'when', than the 'if' at this point, those of us that suffered the pain, will reap the greatest rewards.
Chart for companion planting
http://www.pioneerliving.net/companionplanting.htm
Good find dmssln! White Paper = propaganda disguised as fact, which may indeed be fact, for the purpose of marketing. Or:
A white paper is an authoritative report or guide that helps solve a problem. White papers are used to educate readers and help people make decisions, and are often requested and used in politics, policy, business, and technical fields. In commercial use, the term has sometimes come to refer to documents used by businesses as a marketing or sales tool. Policy makers frequently request white papers from think tanks, universities or academic personnel to assist policy developers with expert opinions or relevant research.
Looks to me like Microtech is announcing they have the experience and expertise, and perhaps mechanical patents to best build the machines to utilize the chemical process developed by Natcore. This paper hints at the likelyhood of something happening soon, and that Microtech would like to have a piece of the action. I remember in an earlier post that Chuck said any number of companies could build the ARBox.
Sumisu, Great Post! I really loved learning about this tree, I already ordered some seeds! Thanks!
Alternet had an interesting article this morning.
http://www.alternet.org/food/153742/compost_cuisine%3A_amazing_ways_to_make_delicious_food_out_of_garbage/
Naterey, thanks for posting this link, it did a lot to clear up the question I had about the Cell/Panel power loss issue!
Hi Dom, Can you or anyone else on the board explain this cell/panel power loss issue to me?
“The problem is, if you increase efficiency you still have a loss of power between the solar cell and the actual solar panel. Unless you solve that problem, increasing efficiency isn’t a big deal … The NREL patents let us increase power output, so you get much more power without having to deal with the cell/panel power loss issue, something the whole industry is contending with right now,”
Would be nice to see some "SOLD" signs on some of those pending ARBoxes! Hopefully Monday January 9th our engineers will be hard at work producing samples, and the FedEx truck will be stopping by daily to pick up samples being sent around the world, followed by corporate attorney's from PV manufacturers around the world coming with pens in hand, ready to sign contracts! Go Natcore!
It is certainly disheartening to see the demise of First Solar. I'm not sure I agree with their new direction of focusing on utility scale projects only.
I recently read an article, (and sorry I can't find the link,)but someone took a suvery of utility company employees, of what they saw by the year 2050. 16% felt there would be no utilities at all, that all power supply would be produced on site, over 60% felt it would be a combination.
Another new hybrid system has become available, that makes solar competitive WITHOUT subsidies. It is a PV/solar thermal system. The thermal heat is used to run an absorption chiller for AC and heating, and supply hot water.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chromasun-installs-worlds-first-hybrid-photovoltaic-solar-thermal-panel-cooling-system-2011-12-09
These hybrid systems seem to make the most sense to me, with PV at just 15% efficiency the total system is 75% efficient. Once Natcore starts with their tandom cells, these hybrids will be awesome.
Excel, If you have a lawn mower it will work well for chopping small branches and stalks. It may not work well on freshly pulled stalks, but if you let them dry for a week or two it should do the trick.
I don't know if there are any Floridians on this board, but I replaced the grass in my backyard with Ornamental Peanuts, they are easy to spread, just pull up some of the vines with roots, and stick'em in the ground during rainy season. The ground gets covered with a lush green carpet, that flowers bright yellow edible flowers about the size of a thumbnail everyday. Mow about 2 or 3 times a summer to promote flowering. Working on spreading to the sides of the house now. Thanks for the post on sprouts! Great idea!
Good Thermal Electic Devices Coming Soon
http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2011/11/18/good-thermoelectric-devices-coming-soon/
A Norwegian research team claims to have broken the barrier to cheap thermo electric power.
As Natcore is already in the planning stages of tandem solar cells, I wonder how far off triple, or quadruple layered cells are? It seems this technology could be also be applied to the cells so they catch the photo energy, and thermo energy, all in one thin film.
A Australian company already makes a cell that uses water to capture the thermo energy, boasting of 4 times the efficiency of normal solar cells, but how much hot water can you use?
Things got to be looking up for solar when guys like Paul Krugman start to weigh in!
Here Comes the Sun, I say... it's alright...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/opinion/krugman-here-comes-solar-energy.html?_r=1
Interesting article, but Jifan Goa may be counting his chickens before they have hatched. I don't doubt the weaker hands will be shaken out, and it looks at though Chinese companies are doing their best to shake them out now!
Two thirds of the present companies may fall by the wayside, but with all the R&D presently devouted to the solar industry, it won't surprise me if new companies step into the game with cutting edge technology, that will leave the present front runners wondering what just passed them by.