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OT: IMAX/LGF
IMAX mentioned on Fast Money a few minutes ago. I've traded this before and like the long term story (also like LGF in a related sub sector). Also see comments below on LGF.
At any rate, Najarian mentioned unusual options activity. So took a peak. The very interesting thing here is that it has tagged the 200 ema on the weekly at $18.29 recently.
IMAX trading at $19.95 (although bid/ask spiked a tad in after hours once Najarian made that comment).
I'm not advocating a buy on IMAX per se, but IMAX looks good (but daily chart still showing some drag so you may be able to get this lower if interested).
By the way, LGF printed a very nice hammer on the weekly chart. If today's price action holds tomorrow then LGF looks like a buy for a longer term swing (but of course you may have to grit your teeth on it and IMAX if you get in until market settles and correction finishes). Best price point for LGF looks to be anything you can get close to $12.70-75.
One caveat--LGF very driven by news related to movies, whether consumer has money...they are the firm that released The Hunger Games and amazingly China has agreed to allow it to be released there.
FYI...Intraday action for June 6 2012---
General Targets I have--
Watching DXY for whether it will hold 82.04, if that holds, then that supports more of a bear move sooner rather than later (although suspecting we will test lower levels.
Also, to support sustained bull pop: AAPL needs to hold $570 (Weekly or Monthly 9 ema I think is why I this sticks in my head...). AAPL needs to retake $581 afterward. XLF needs to retake 14.25-50 area, VIX needs to trade below 21.50, then 20 in coming days as well.
Intraday comments---
Otherwise...Been busy doing some intense market/sector analysis. Will try to pass along in coming days. As well, will try to catch up with previous posts on the board as I can.
Here is an observation I have when looking at intraday action----
.....Seeing some interesting intraday divergence in the markets. Indicating that at least intraday the indices want to retest the highs of the day. For instance, I started to see a trade into junk bonds which often is indicative of a move out of the treasuries into a more 'risk on' approach...
At any rate, looking for some short covering here on the indices, and that may extend into Friday and Monday morning. We'll see, markets are very oversold although yesterday and today's action has relieved some of that oversold condition... but as we wind up the week, there is no really bad news out there at the moment.
That said, this can go either way... I just noted some intraday divergences like junk bonds getting a bid as well as Gold, etc. We'll see. Tough call here but if markets can hold in here and retake 1325 then I would see 1350 in sight afterwards. That said, looking to Friday or Monday to add to my short of the markets (right now its a very nominal short...mostly in cash here but waiting for certain targets to be hit to see how this all unfolds... ). Will try to pas along some of those bull vs bear targets I have today, tomorrow as time permits. Mike
thx Oddlot ...appreciate it.
I'm a long term student of the market and enjoy it thoroughly. S
o even though I'm bearish here...I never give up the analysis and turning up the long trade for future reference (or current scalping opps).
I at times will just turn them up and not even scalp them - like I did when I mentioned the nat gas plays like ECA and the home builders. I have no positions in those.
Its always instructive to me what sectors are fighting the trend.
Right now we are seeing some of these more hopeful sectors like home builder supply really fighting the bearish trend. That could be a fools errand.
On the other hand, there is an old saying even if most of the entire market is down - 'there is always a bull market somewhere'(i.e., in some industry sector).
Quite often that is only in safety trades like the Utilities, & other high yielders like a REIT like AGNC or telcom (VZ)
That dynamic of course is a typical sector rotation in a down market. Always to be respected.....
The interesting thing is to watch the sectors that are so beaten down that now they are turning...or close to turning in a butt ugly market -- such that they are saying '..we have little or no sellers left...'
At any rate, I always pay attention to the trend and just because I continue to turn over interesting stocks/sectors that are doing good to long side -- it doesn't mean that I all of a sudden turned an out right bull on the market.
I just see this as a job that I enjoy the heck out of (the analysis that is). So when the market goes south I tend to work the hardest at scoping out the next stocks/sub sectors, etc to turn up hard and run...
Hope that helps you and some of the others newer to the board to understand the context of some of my inputs. Good luck. Mike
Rotor...Yes on the flushing. FSM interesting in that regard as well. We are seeing the typical run out of the commodity trade I think back 2009 (and perhaps earlier levels if it keeps up).
I took my profits on the miners a few days ago and as mentioned earlier - watching FCX to see hpow it reacts at previous longer term support lows. Not biting on any of these as yet, but am intrigued that we might see at least a counter trend bounce.
Market to me looks like it will test a bit lower here (thinking 12500 on DIA and lower 1300 level on SPX, then bounce.
Normally miners I find will bounce in front of that after a huge sell off like we have seen. However, I'm still not sure if this will set up for a decent to nice scalp (or a swing trade). So far though, most long side trades in these really oversold sectors like miners I've just turned into scalps until we see how the market resolves itself. SO far market signals indicate that long swings need to be taken quickly.
I think like most, my take is that we are overall trending down in markets & until we see good confirmation then just scalping at times and tracking these miners.
After such a large run down the miners can be an early signal of a market bounce (so watching for how indices react at support in next couple of days and the integrity of any bounce). So far suspect.
Otherwise, I noticed after stellar earnings EXK did a full retracement and then undercut the nice candle it made on earnings (and on big vol - could be capitulation but I didn't since that here on EXK).
So that is a negative tell when perhaps one of the leaders in the junior silver miner group is getting pummeled on high vol.
At any rate, I'm trying to keep track of stocks like PZG, etc longer term and how they react on these type of pull backs so appreciate your update on it. At some point the insight we are collecting here I think will payoff - not sure when...but in meantime I have made a couple nifty trades here on scalps so that will at least keep me studying the area and keeping current with the Sector. Thx, Mike
Just looked at it.. tend to agree with the sentiment on being bullish. See comment after the quote you have...
"...SPX SPY Outlook I: the long term is slightly lower within a wide range. The 4.5 yr MA shows the combined influence of everything longer, such as 9 and 18 year cycles. With the recent high in 2007 of 1576 as an anchor, the channel boundary is approx 1425 on the high side and 750-600 on the downside. IMHO it is suicide to be bullish."
Comment:
Right here, I don't like the market upside potential. Thinking that we have to play it close to the vest on the market at large. However, so far I see no signs of needing to be on a suidcide watch (but if we take out vix of 22 then I would expect another aggressive spike up in TLT and vix putting hard downward pressure on the markets.
In the meantime, I'm turning over sectors that are doing well or getting ready to correct. And also watching for counter tredn bounces. My take here is that I can't look at the marekt every day like the chicken little, but also that we are in a confirmed downtrend till we see a reversal.
St any rate, not sure why you pointed this out. I'm well aware that for months if nto since we bottomed that many have pointed to cyscles indicating that we were going to return to that bottom. At some point perhaps those predictions will come true. In meantime I still findding a blend of shorts and selcted longs on counter trend bounces are working fine (and as long as we all stay hedged properly and/or have appropriately placed stocks I think we wil lbe fine. Good luck
So far it just doesn't look that way. But I do respect Art and we just may be seeing the lull in front of the bigger storm here. Regardless, looking for a counter trend bounce and then another attempt down over next week.
The trend to downside just does not look done as yet.
So we'll have to see if we get that big Lehman event -- that is --where the gov't fails to 'backstop' financially a major banking firm or even a major country like Portugal or Spain. There is risk here of that.
Greece to me not as big of a risk to world markets (its more that Greece can make life in the world markets nasty for awhile....and then if we then get a 'Lehman' like failure at a level of Portugal or Spain --- then that seems to me to be "...Lehman on steriods" event(not Greece per se...but if something really big like one of those two other countries fails -- then I get the Lehman on steriods metaphor....). Mike
Yes... But when looking at TLT and vix... it look sto me like there is not much here in the sell off at the moment. Expecting a counter trend bounce here (but could come tomorrow). It just doesn't seem like all that bad of a sell off and on many stocks/sectors are not only at the 2011 proce points on some of them...but for some sectors we are flirting with the 2008-09 level...yet it doesn't seem to me that the sentiment level indicators support that... IMHO
Miners (GDX/GDXJ, NUGT). Once we see sell off subsiding, take a look at NUGT and other miners (FCX in this space). Its gotten overly plastered today for the type of pull back we saw intraday. So good to look at for at least a scalp if not a swing trade. NUGT down 12% and GDX down4% as write this. That said, was looking to see if DIA would tag 12,500 and SPX around 1325...we didn't quite get there, so not sure if bottoming action over here on the indices. Mike
re: FCX. Thx.
You can see the candle I'm looking at. I can see the trend line you have is just shy of $35 and it may bounce there (or of course breach it temporarily).
Often these miners like FCX, RIO, GOLD, GG etc, will hit the top of previous reversal candle, so that is why I'm looking at that candle in the upper 28 to 32 area on FCX back in Oct 2011.
The high of that candle was $32.32 I think and low 28.85.
Often I will see a slight breach of high vol candle like that and then a bottoming action over next half day or so...and then a nice reversal and move to upside afterward.
SO thinking we do that here with FCX...but as ugly as these stocks are we could see that $27-29 area I'm looking at. However, even....as ugly as these stocks get at times, buyers often start stepping in once support like this is hit and then breached a bit - say by 10-25%(so its always not an easy call on the exact price point that works out for a stock like FCX).
At any rate, when stocks like FCX and RIO put in a reversal then all the other miners will follow for at least a counter trend up.
So I will be looking at that sub $30 area (if FCX gets there...but it may just try to bottom around the 30-32 level (or near where you have that trend line drawn. Mike
FSM worth a look too for a silver trade. FSM may have printed a reversal here, but need to see confirmation.
This is tough right here on most of the commodity trades (whether copper, silver, gold, etc. Just looked at a number of these miners and they all look very bad. .
Otherwise...NG might be ready...Also, AEM had great earnings last report so is back to being a leader in the Gold miner space so looking like selling is drying up.
Otherwise, I'm looking for Copper/Gold stock like FCX that always bounces nicely at some point to perhaps get into the 29 to 32 area with an outside possibility of 27 -- right now its right at 34 and may make a stand soon. But most of these miners look ugly (especially copper). Others in copper space are TCK, SCCO, TGB, but they aren't much better looking....
re: HD vs MHK, LII, LL, TOL, LEN perhaps USG etc...(e.g.,Home building type stocks-- ).
Very nice charts here. Have a few more but need to go back to my notes.
Also, Thx for inputs on DAX and Oil kiy as well as other inputs tonight like on HD.
In terms of HD...I'm thinking its done for now. Normally when the market sells off HD has done well until recently (and LOW, TREX seem to be doing same as HD at this point). However, I think the rotation to this type of Industry is not done -- that e are just seeing a sub-sector rotation within this type of 'home builder' support space (for the lack of a more handy name...)
In particular look at MHK, LL, LII, perhaps USG mentioned above.
Also for home builders TOL and LEN looking pretty good and there are probably a few others here I missed.
They all look like they want to go higher and not printing the very negative candles of late like we are seeing in HD, LOW, TREX.
...Will try to look up my previous notes and see if there are a few others here of interest to the group.
At any rate, I think this is an area to watch for this type of rotation and the ones I mentioned are likely good ones to look at for a trade. Mike
Also bought some TSO...getting some good action vol wise - may just turn out to be a scalp, but low PE and technicals look to be improving (perhaps even more so than WNR. Bought a little ERX (see XLE) as well. Integrated Oil trades just looks like a '3 drives' to the bottom type of pattern...). Mike
Refiners: WNR, TSO, ALJ, VLO, etc
Like the margins here that refiners are likely to garner as Oil continues down. Even if a pop they are likely too bounce. I have WNR. Looking at TSO & ALJ (not as sure about ALJ but it can pop nicely when refinerers move). VLO looks more suspect. Otherwise, the integrated oil plays (via XLE/ERX amy get a bid). Note charts are ugly here on the refiners, etc but I am noticing technical improvement in WNR and TSO recently (and others in this space may also catch a bid)... Mike
Couldn't disagree more kiy (on the other hand I so agree with your sentiment). But my take on Financial History is that every time there was no plan to bail these sh-t birds out that led to longer and much more systemic downtrends in the economy. The bigger problem is that we got a bunch of retards for Congressman over the past 20 years or so (and I don't see so far where the Tea Party has made any difference cause they seem just as disingenuous as the lot they replaced...).
In that circumstance, no Fed chief is going to walk away from doing what he can to give the market and banking system time... But its just a charade if these retards don't get their act together and make tax restructuring a priority that both generates more revs but also gives Businesses a more straightforward taz policy to deal with...Yes we got to cut spending and we have to raise more revs...this cheesy ass dem vs Rep argument on all this is killing and putting the Fed I think in an untenable situation. My take. I'm so sure you disagree...I just think it is so easy to be an 'arm chair' quarterback here and blame the fed for all our ills. Its us and the dumb asses we have elected over the past 20-30 yrs that are the problem.... Gotta Go... Later...Mike
Nice Interchange kiy/lkb (not sure I got intials correct - soory about that,,,
At any rate, afgree on all points on this post KIY. Took some profits on most miners early today (but kept EXK & SLW as a longer term 'investment' unless SLV tanks here on me t(then will exot quickly. Good luck and thanks for back and forth posts between the two of you... enjoyable I must say...
I agree with the sentiment here (except on the Fed). The Fed is trying to prevent this type of crap (and my sense is thta folks are fighting the Fed and US Treasury tooth and nail on reforms here and then when the proverbial sh_t hits the fan then turn around and blame the Fed as the problem).. Makes no damn sense to me. Lets either put or shut up here on sound regs.
At any rate, this just looks more stupid for JPM than systemic...so I expect it to weigh on the markets short term So we may see that 1340 level or an undercut that Jerry is looking for...
But the market will eventually brush this off (unless there is some more systemic issues for JPM and banking system raised as a result of this debacle).
Ain't it just great the the leadership stock in financials screws it up this big...???
Here is the quote that I like from the link in your post rotor which is exactly correct....there was no real hedging here - it was speculative gamble...If I remember correctly Hartford Ins (HIG) said they had losses due to "hedging" as well. I talked about this with my son last week...I said it ain't hedging if they lost big bucks...they were just gambling and got caught like Corzine/MF, etc... Here it is for those that didn't pull it up... Mike
"Oops...
JP Morgan is blaming "hedging" for a monstrous mark-to-market loss, presumably with their "whale" (the big credit trader that was blamed for actually moving markets a few weeks ago.)
By definition if something is a hedge then it's balanced by a gain somewhere else.
So this was not hedging -- it was speculation and there's only one thing worse than speculating -- that's unintentionally speculating!
"Fortress balance sheet" my ass.
JP Morgan getting trashed after hours, the S&P futures are off 11 points and the Dow is off almost 100."
Thx but I think I just added ECA and XTXI to Mossy Oak's list of UPL, XCO, etc. At any rate, will try to continue to plumb this area (so to speak) and post as I see stocks of interest in Na gas area or similar commodity area..... Mike
My take haha is that Gold still looks weak despite a decent pop up especially in some of the miners like GG,AEM and perhaps some tha I have (IAG, SLW, PAAS, EXK, AZK,=.
However, its looking like Silver is the place to be (and that we should shy away from Gold and Gold miners for a bit longer (in favor of more pure plays on Silver).
I'm not convinced as yet on all this.... but my initial analysis indicates that mid to longer term the trend in Silver is okay (but Gold not quite 'getting it' on here).
So with that in mind I'm tending to favor some of the more robust Silver miners in that space. Gold miners may do very well in coming weeks but so far they aren't looking like they will take the "Bastille by storm'...
So for me I'm tending to favor Silver over Copper, Gold, and other metals. But I would like to see a better reversal in the indicators soon. Good luck
Thx Mossyoak, and Yes thinking ECA has a nice trend in ront of it (and a good chance to tag 25-27 area, then consolidate and go higher...)
You also mentioned XCO and UPL...both look interesting...not sure if you mentioned or looking at XTXI but that is worth a look as well.
I'm sure we can dig out a few others here -- so will try to pay attention and pass along those stocks/symbols as I see them... Mike
Thx kiy. And yes I don't do what you do (most of us I think just respect and take into account other folks thoughts...).
I have my own way/system of trading and tracking the technicals and very comfortable with that. But... the nice aspect of this board is to hear other folks expertise on their own 'technical take' or system (e.g., for that nice 'heads up' or otherwise to consider/ ponder over). Great stuff. Mike
thx for the post kiy, and, some of the added insights (and 'advice' to more novice traders). I agree generally of course with your thoughts here (however, I'm not overly familiar with your system, but do follow your inputs fairly carefully -- and really like hearing them. Again, thx much
Thx rotor, Also EXK had great earnings. JAG up 21-22% to $1.75 so about $300 on those 1000 shares you have. I see it is now trying to attack the early morning candle from Tues (were it went down from 2.05 to 1.75. Would expect some resistance here -- thinking it will pull back/trade sideway, perhaps retest 1.60-65 area. If holds then it may eat into that candle and get close to $2, perhaps $2.20 then would expect it to stall out somewhere in there. Hard to call on these juniors... Currently I have SLW, EXK, PAAS< IAG, AZK...Forgot about RBY and acouple of others you mentioned. RBY seems like it has a good prospects longer term but haven't checked it out recently. Mike
Miners: Like the action today in PAAS (great fundamentals and bought some a bit ago). AZK looks good today, IAG turning around after pulling back today a couple of %. GG and SLW look pretty good I think. Perhaps AUY, EGO. Overall, just looks like at least some of these miners are refusing to go down anymore at this point. GDX/NUGT improving as well. Need some confirmation, but often on thee broad market sell offs, the miners are one of the first to turn up (and they are awfully ovrsold at this point). We'll see if just a counter trend bounce or something we can trade for a bit... Mike
Re: SPY/SDS comment:
It looks to me that we have a potential failure of the various negative sentiment indicators to press higher -- so initial indication that todays sub 1350 test of SPX and then a retake of critical 1355-60 area was a substantial reveral (that needs to be confirmed).
So two (or three) scenarios I'm looking out for for tommorrow --
1--We pop nicely off of these potential reversal candles today (and just have a modest 25% pull back into that candle (Tuesday, May 8 candle).
2--We test the whole move (and perhaps undercut it a bit and plant a second confirming reversal candle
3--We undercut and then move down harder under the lows of yesterday.
Of course the forst two scenarios are the more bullish ones, and the last one would suck for bulls. I'm thinking that we retest here a bit that we are putting in a short ternm bottom. But we will have to see. If right, then SDS will of course be a bad trade to hold. On the other hand, we are in a tenuous place here and we could easilyt fail.
So my suggestion is to keep any long on SDS relatively tight (woth these ETs you've got to give it a bit a play on the trading day, but wouldn't let it get away from you).
kiy---
Been offline for awhile so not sure of the posting on this stock...
But just saw this on JAG (and was looking at it today and I passed in favor of looking at AUY, IAG, GSS, AZK, AEM, SLW, GOLD, etc).
I agree on one level that it doesn't look like it can get any worse on JAG so it may be capitulation.
But my take is that there is something bigger here at work.
Capitulation in my view on the mining stocks are often a quick reversal with the technicals quickly confirming.
What this looks like to me is a mining stock that is headed for bankruptcy. The action JAG just seemed so far out of the norm...and there was no logical pop off a perceived bottom.
Technicals (ADX, Stochs, MACD) indicate unrelenting selling pressure and today did not look like it improved that situation.
So with so many other names out there to look at that have sold off hard, JAG is the last one I would look at for an entry (on a potential capitulation trade). Good luck on these miners...they have been tough and I've stepped in a bit too early a little to often for my taste and had to quickly back out of the trade (or take the quick .10 blip up and get out).
So I haven't lost a lot here on trying to find that proverbial bottom...on the other hand, I really don't like the looks of this (and it really doesn't look like capitulation -- it almost seems like the start of the final end phase -- which is hard is hard to believe on a stock like this (I've tracked this stock for a long time and I must say I am a bit stunned that it is doing so badly).
Mike
MossyOak--Agree on the Nat gas plays...Thinking ECA in same group and has a very, very nice looking chart.
gwtf, et al; re: the miners (also DDD, LGF, etc)
-- I bought IAG today. Thought about AUY (nice candle today on AUY but on somewhat high vol so may be retested...), also looking at AEM, AZK (see note below on AZK as well as IAG), GOLD, SLW.
GLD appeared to put in a a decent candle signaling a potential reversal on a longer term trend line. However, overnight I'm watching the dollar make a very nice trend up (but often that dissipates by the morning in US markets -- but a 'debbie downer' so to speak at the moment).
Otherwise, seeing decent looking reversal candles on the indices (but they may be tested intraday on Wednesday.
On IAG:
Nice PE, has a good yield, and reports May 11 I believe, so I thought it was worth an early entry here.
Regarding AZK--
Not overly impressed on the technicals like a lot of the miners but it keeps holding that 4.50-4.70 level and got down to $4.90 and finished at 5.07. Thinking that the technicals are weak on it at the moment so will take time to get going, but worth a look for alonger term entry.
Otherwise bought DDD (3d prototyping type system like SSYS and now have a personal 3d printer at 1299 (printed a nice candle off of the 20 today). Had a very nice reversal candle today of of 20 on low vol.
Also have LGF as a short to perhaps mid term trade -- LGF (Lions Gate) - had the Hunger Games and recently China gave permission to release it there... Good news, but high debt and short interest, but looking like it may setup in coming weeks to retest and take out previous highs (but jury still out, but worth a 'flyer' here I think given bullish engulfing candle on Monday.
Oh really like STX long term but not biting here quite yet. But may change mind...
Good luck...and like you patiently waiting on the miners and thinking we are close here to bottoming action (so I'm selectively starting to leverage a bit into a few names like IAG I like for at least a potential scalp/swing). Keeping stops tight but we look awfully oversold here on the markets and this sector in particular. So not overly confident that this will be a good buy when all said, but risk is low I think (and like I said I'm running a relatively tight stop).
If you have some other miners you are looking at, let me know..I forgotten some of the symbols on many of these miners I used to follow (guess it shows the length of the correction here...) Mike
Thx kiy. TVIX has a nice cup base to it on the 5 day chart (with a double bottom hit at around $13.59 a couple of days ago. Right now sitting at $14.50-14.60. Might be worth watching to see if it will continue to flag on 1 min and head sometime today to $15 or thereabouts... Mike
kiy
I don't think I disagree with much here (and if so, its not really significant I think). I didn't quite follow all of it though (but that is always the case when any of us get a bit charged up - its hard for the rest of us to quite getting what the rant is saying entirely....).
So... I totally agree there is front trading in the market. Do I have conclusive evidence...? No. So I don't say a lot about it other than I tend to agree with the overall trader sentiment -- and especially that when any of us are trading off of the 1 minute that we are at a considerable disadvantage. But like you and many others, I have a lot of anecdotal evidence (as they would say). It is a tad obvious I think when you see how quickly bids/asks of large amounts ...somehow just show up in a "flash" and then disappear quickly...).
I definitely think that is wrong, and I think a lot of the bigger institutions and traders out there agree... But there are of course internal politics and problem inherent biases in the folks that run the exchanges that don't lead them to the same conclusion (or don't want to fix it even if they agree due to the money they get from the current situation). and
So overall, I don't mind having a post on the board that provides this as info and even asks for taking a "vote". I just thought the zero hedge post was mostly an incoherent rant (I actually wanted to vote but it wasn't quite clear what I should for and what I was actually saying by taking either the yes or no vote). It just seemed like a total waste of time after I read it.
So generally, I have no real objections on that front (and on most of what I think you had to say in your part two post as well).
The problem I have is that we are seeing a lot of inflammatory language of late regarding how our institutions of government are somehow involved overtly in ponzi schemes, that the current administration is somehow benefiting from that and that everything is somehow a big conspiracy in that regard.
That of course doesn't mean that a lot of these folks running the excahnges (as well as their bigger subscribers) aren't in some sense colluding or benefiting from very convenient relationships and rules on those exchanges (and that to me is a very legitimate issue). But its been around for a while and looks like it won't be fixed (but as a trader I don't mind putting in my vote that it is wrong).
The other aspect is that at times I see some bleed-in (although limited) on this board of some of the very terrible rhetoric that says that all kinds of folks in Business and Government "aren't like us" and quite frankly much more demonizing statements that reflect little in logic and reality.
I remember when I was a kid in the South, that I was exposed to often very similar sounding rhetoric against MLK. i.e., He was a socialist a communist, not one of us, a womanizer (which is okay these days it seems)... all kinds of things to indicate that the things he was trying to do for his supporters was somehow an anathema to the 'US way of life' and we should consider him in some way as "less than a human being" --- lets say a primate (which is what a lot of that rhetoric was driving towards in the 1960s).
Now I'm hearing similar rhetoric against the Fed, Bernanke, the Supreme Ct, Wall St, Obama, etc. And.... that rhetoric has been on a "glide path" it seems like since the Clinton and Bush jr administrations (e.g., against folks of both political parties).
It just seems more and more extreme as we go along and I think its time to say we should 'wake up' a bit and say that this type of dehumanizing rhetoric against any of these folks is largely not called for (although...I like everyone else have a hard tome respecting wall street firms these days...I don't think of them in dehumanizing terms though I may have little or almost no respect for how they ran us into a large mess that will take another 5-10 years it seems to dig our way out of...and they the numebr of people they hurt in this process (unbelievable in many senses).
So -- perhaps I saw my own "trigger" or two in several posts over past couple of weeks on conspiracies and other inputs that seemed to say let's just undercut our most cherished institutions.
And, I must say on a board like this I think some of that ranting (so to speak) is okay and we should tolerate it. We all have to get things off of chest.
My concern is that sometimes this type of ranting and rhetoric is used as an excuse to not 'own up' to the idea that you just screwed the overall technical analysis up as well as the trades that are being pursued on that analysis.
We are analysts here first....but some level of ranting and rhetoric is okay. I just sense that we were seeing too many posts that were just getting off focus and just seemed whiny to me at the very least. So it was getting increasing hard for me to find a really good post to think over and comment on from an analytical point of view (it just seemed like most of them were starting to statements like "geez I got the trade wrong buts it really not my fault since the world is totally aligned against me..."I just think at a certain point that is 'girlie-man' stuff. Besides..what good do those type of posts do us? Yes its gets something off our chests...but it just seemed like too many folks were participating in that kind of self denial of late....
Hope that clears up to a degree my "rant" or concern on some posts (some recently as well as over past few weeks).
I do very much like 95% of all contributions and certainly all of the contributors. Its a stellar group. I was just pointing my finger in everyone's eye I guess. Perhaps I,m the wrong one here. But I will saying since coming back online there just seems to be more posts that are back on focus..... I don't If I helped that or not.
Regardless, Much thanks for your return post..i.e, I wouldn't have been surprised if you were giving me a bigger 'return rant' than you did here.
At any rate, I realized I was getting too frustrated with pulling up a an array of non-technical or non-analytical posts. And some of the 'introductions' to some technical posts were starting to hit my buttons... So I decided to "cool my jets" for a bit because I was beginning to see red (instead of the incredible value that this board usually provides).
Good luck and thanks much. Mike
Okay this is my beef if not clear on a few posts I've seen as well as on others. I love the new members on this board and really like a lot of the added commentary and analysis of late.... So I want to be clear on my beef here on more than a few posts I have seen of late:
First, if your aren't getting this technicals right in this market then evolve or modify or expand your view point on how technically judge the market.
Second, if you get it wrong don't blame it on impending implosion of current world events or otherwise or political, religious views etc. Yes we should think about those type of things (like world implosion) as modifying our technical take...But a lot of this strikes me a conspiracy levle stuff.
Third, there are likely conspiracies out there...but if we all know about it then its likely not a big conspiracy to us cause we have the technical prowess to adjust despite any ill winds out there (think about the stuff that technicians early on had to deal with in this market -- much more extereme than we have to deal with...)
Fourth, the board is about technicals first and foremost... Fundamentals come second and conspiracy theories and who has what power over the oppressed trader comes at the very last I think.
Fifth, So the fact that we have some wall street forces aligned against us is a really, really, big DUH. That is why we have the technicals, that is why we have this board and this diversion into ponzi schemes, conspiracy theries and hedge funds cna add color...but really get us off the track.
Sixth, I really don't mind some of this conspiracy theory crap...I just want it to me more fact based, grounded in reality, have some level of cogent analysis and be ultimately supported by really sound technical analysis.... So I good with color but this rheotical, dogmatic crap just leaves me cold. Mike
sdpro...yes I use level 2 and for a long time now I've not overly trusted those quotes due to this situation.
But we know that the hedgies have had that advantage on us for a long., long time now. SO what is different.
And why now would I abandon my use of technicals that I have alwasy used to guide me through that kind of crap?
Maybe I'm tired but the zero hedge post is incoherent to me other than they are asking "High Frequency Trading contributes to the overall liquidity of markets." Do you agree or disagree...
I tend to disagree, but not sure if that is what what vote would be for.
Otherwise, I totally didn't understand the first paragraph of this post by zero hedge. It sounded at first like it made sense, then it seemed overall dogmatic on how the markets and world has gone to crap, etc...
I think we all get that wall street has the edge on everyone of us...but we have technicals to guide us by and large (despite that fact). So other than that idea, I don't get the purpose of voting for such superfluous stuff...its like voting on CNBC, CNN, FOX, etc.
Who really cares whether I provide I vote to them to show that they have some viewership for Nielsen and other market analysts on the dribble that they are providing for me (to have some type of democratic vote on....). Its just marketing I think and not real analysis based in grounded facts or reality for that matter...
rotor mike....
I think I agree with assessment (even though I think I lost you here and there). In particular I agree that miners have suffered at the expense of the "Keynesian" trade that many have pursued. As an aside, I liked this whole Keynesian thing (even though badly implemented for Keynesians...) only cause I wanted to see a real world test of it after everyone on both sides of the aisle have talked it to death since our fearless leader (William F Buckley) brought up his objections to it...
That said,the Keynesian trade to me seems like its runs its "theoretical" course. When everyone signs up for something (regardless of it being right or wrong...well it will work to a point). Now I think we are seeing the winding down of the Keynes approach over the next 2 years and likely we will see that the economy is fine and won't implode.
So the miners in mind will do quite well (especially since they haven't participated in the move up...for whatever reason (Keynes or not)...and the markets will ratchet and heave back and forth as we extract out this Keynes type economics...but we are getting through this mess despite some of the worst angels out there in politics and business.
In the meantime...the markets have sold off, consolidated...moved up, consolidated again over past couple of years (and longer when considering the 2000 debacle) and these underlying companies have grown stronger while having appreciably lower valuations than they otherwise would have had if the whole wall street mess had not occurred in 2008.
Hope that makes some sense....its not quite a rant and we might not quite agree but I think we are tending to be in same ball park (I think)? lol. Good luck and much thanks and alos thanks for the insights you provided in that rant fundamental as well as technical-wise...it was helpful. Mike
Rotor: Gold/miners track I would say 70% of time with market direction. Currently in this apparent bull market trend, Gold is temporarily out of favor but not too bad. That is we are just seeing a normal msector to sector rotation within a larger bull market so far...
Gold is maintaining its longer trend & Right now it just looks like we are seeing normal market correction in Gold. I have 1630-50 or thereabouts as support. If a observed and good bounce it should go again and challenge that 1800 level (and the miners are likely to get a very nice move if that happens).
Gold and Miners sell off (or correct) normally for 3 to 4 different situations as I see it. If market sells off they tank as well (despite the news). And often on a big accleration, if ithey well sell off at least initially if nflation fears aren't rampant. If Oil is ramping up then miners suffer due to increased costs of production
At any rate this seems corrective in Gold unless it can't hold that lower to mid 1600 level for long and then bounce.
Otherwise we are seeing that the Transports have lagged (it seems due to Oil spikes and likely recession fears).
However, we are seeing retail, restaurants and all kinds of interesting stocks on the discretionary side breaking out strongly to all time highs That type of action generally points to a more bullish tenor mid to longer term despite other contradictions. Also, classic building and realted industries are popping off the bottom, appear to be putting in nice bases that look likely poised to head higher. Overall that points to the idea that have leading indicators that are pointing up more than 3 to 6 months out, and that the market will lead our generally negative expectations here.
Now if Copper fails and we see classic stocks liek Big has pointed out like RIO, CAT, FCX etc fail then that will tell us otherwise. Also if new emerging leaders fail or old leaders like EMC fail then that will point us into the direction that says the trend can't continue.
Also look at the bottoming action in it appears in CRR, or the action in MHK. Much the same theme. That is...my take is that so far we are seeing an evolving sector to sector rotation within in a longer term bull tredn upwards (so we will see ups and downs but will continue to see more ups). That so far is typified by the type of rotation we are seeing: Largely out of defensive stocks, and into stocks that support the premise that the industrial, and particularly building related stocks are gaining strength months ahead of the actual numbers we will see in the economy.
Also, note the reluctance of most analysts to actually be onboard here with vigor as well as everyone else. We all keep saying it can't be so, but keep being driven out of their short positions.
The same thing happened in reverse on the downside. We are just seeing the same correction to the upside. SOrry for the overly long input here...a little ineffienct for a board like this Mike
Michael (&qwikstrike): Keep another thing in mind. Fundamentally at the time these type of stocks that sold off so hard are now the the srongest.
They have based (along with a lot of the Industrials) now for 10-20 years.... Fundamentally now AAPL is among the strongest and by many fundamental measures is still undervalued.
So what we had there (it appears) was an over-enthusiastic race to get into zero earnings stocks...followed by 20 years of market complacency as the failures actually fell off..... and what we have left in the Nasdaq and in some other notable sectors -- are actual earnings giants (and now the technicals are starting to catch up with that overall reality).
Also, in another sense this is very classic double/triple top type action where the first sell off is harsh, the next one less harsh and the the remaining sell offs are increasingly less harsh until they finally break through to the upside.
In both a technical sense as well as a market sense (and with the sentiment of everyday investors) we look to have a very, very classic case of 'climbing the wall of worry'. We are very likely to plow through this wall of worry and the wall of previous resistance in coming weeks. Of course sentiment and world conditions can change...So to me this is market psychology in action (and actually reverse psychology I think). Mike
Thx Big, Agree. But thanks for the added idata measures....
I should clarify my input....
I guess unlike many.... every measure I look at indicates that all these pull backs will be brief. My technical take right now is that we should see a bit more of a pull back (but still brief especially compared to want an avowed short would like to see).
So right here (pattern wise - just looking to pick-off a modest but potentially nice payoff at this point in the Daily charts as I read them).
After that expecting another bounce and re-attack of this approx 1400 level and then higher.
That said, I'm seeing some divergences (but much more in the way of positive convergences).
So unless technical or other sentiment factors change dramatically for more than a day or two, I'm still buying these pull backs as noted in previous posts.
Also....In regards to Bradley, other lunar data, cycles, etc...its saying to watch out here...but I find these indicators/systems to be much more reliable as a bull or bear trend ends. So my take is that these type of 'alternate' systems show some level of reliability but when there is inherent strength in the trend (then these alternate systems need to be toned down in terms of our expectations of the resultant move). If that makes sense... Mike
Sell the News. That said, not sure it is exactly right here... this is a very strong move up on the indices. We hit many of the targets I had for a temporary pull back (but not all was looking for AAPL to get into 475-80 area as a for instance). So we could have a little here to go before we see some profit taking that should be significant. So far so good though if you are relatively bullish on the market (likely for a while longer, but a little concerned about Bradley, other cycle data and some Euro data coming out next week. From a bullish standpoint I like the technicals here on Wekly and Monthly. Options Ex should also provide a bit of a floor into end of next week. Pattern wise and on some other measures just looks to me like we should have at least a brief day or two pull back )so looking for those signals starting now/tomorrow).
Shippers
I Remember that BT and others were talking about these. I picked up some EXM and DRYS just a bit earlier. THey may not be ready to go yet but wanted to point it out in case folks interested. I need though to check the underlying technicals (e.g., daily stochs, adx, macd etc). So this is just a preliminary thought on the matter....
May later look at GNK and DSX as well, but not really sure they are quite ready move here yet until I can get a beter indept look at the charts...but trying to keep my eye of those as well. I guess EGLE
Otherwise, been offline for a bit so need to look over posts for past 2-3 days. Mike
Ziko, Oddlot, et al:
I think I may be running out of "daily" posts here...so will combine this just in case.
Ziko much thx for the monthly chart and comments. Very helpful and will study more tonight/tomorrow.
Oddlot, I greatly appreciate the time you took on laying out your observations on CCI (as well as OBV earlier).
Otherwise, may be running low on my ability to reply here to the board but will get back on some previous posts.
Much thx folks. Mike
thx oddlot on OBV. Quite frankly still getting used to integrating OBV into my analysis. Wil check the 1 min as you say. Eventually I need to get a tutorial somehow on CCI so that I can keep up with you folks.