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The time to sell was in the first six weeks after the REDUCE-IT results came out.
When this thing hit a market cap of $7 billion, I should have thought, "The pie in the sky upside is a double, and there's no floor under this given GIA possibilities and the patent exposure."
It would have been way easier to get a double from there on tech stocks than to take that risk.
That DHA interferes with EPA was always an important explanatory conjecture.
It would be nice to have the method of interference spelled out.
I didn’t think that
I was thinking the under/over was about 2 years
It's something like 30 consecutive days below $1... and then you get some period of time to remedy that.
Things like Italy bad news aren't Denner actions -- they are runoffs from prior management.
This isn't an overnight thing. It takes time to turn the Queen Mary around.
Diabetes is one of the factors that was included in the FDA approval for primary treatment.
It's really already on the menu.
Cash is king for now -- maybe forever
If cash stays flat or goes up, we stay out of trouble
If it starts eroding again, we're f'ed
Holt’s option strike price is set on 8/1
8/2 is after 8/1
I have a feeling 8/2 might not be so bad
This is how you do it. Building a bridge to a buyout. Getting in bed with existing distribution experts.
Expect to start seeing the same kinds of moves in Europe now.
So triple the value at least
Here's some easy Europe math:
- GIA - $1bn sales, 70% gross margin, 50% SGA cost, 20% pretax profit
- Big pharma - $1bn sales, 70% gross margin, 20% SGA cost, 50% pretax profit
It's that simple. This drug is worth at least double in the hands of Big Pharma, with no other considerations
He's certainly not going to buy any more shares while he's getting the strike price for his guy set at as low a rate as possible.
Lipitor was still on patent in 2006.
These are basic concepts.
Why do I keep coming here?
Not for a single drug company with no pipeline it isn’t
$5 is a billion of sales at a 2x multiple
That’s a more realistic way to think about $5
I have to think my million share purchase at $1.14 had something to do with the AH lift...
Added at 1.14
OMG what is wrong with me?
I think because COVID basically lost its legs by last winter, Kaiser lost interest.
I just wish the option award to the new CEO had included tranches all the way up to $100.
Then I could spend my days here reading impassioned theories about Denner and how he already has a plan worked out to get us well above $100 per share.
When the first buyback occurs, I will post a picture of myself with the breast implants I went out and got with the resulting PPS increase.
I am more likely to defeat Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination than this company is to do share buybacks.
The next person who suggests AMRN would do a share buyback has to find and personally analyze all the MITIGATE data.
Did MDCO have $313mm in cash on its balance sheet at that time?
That's the problem -- this situation is close to unique -- so everyone is using examples that are more normal.
Do YOU have any examples of a company with a single drug with an eroding exclusivity/patent profile and generic competition in the US, with no pipeline?
If not, you go to math -- it's the discounted PV of after-tax income. $1bn of sales for call it 10 years, after tax, and discounted at the cost of equity with a buffer for uncertainty? That's clearly between $1bn and $2bn.
Stock is trading now almost like a broker stabilizing an IPO. Feels like an effort to keep the price right here for awhile.
Yes, that is true to a point
OMG please put me on ignore NOW
Only two good things have happened to this company in a long time:
(1) Denner won the proxy battle, and
(2) They put a comp plan in for the new CEO that actually signals and motivates the right actions
That's it.
For Big Pharma selling this in Europe would be 10x easier. No apparatus to build, and deep existing relationships with regulators and other interested parties.
And they would manage the runoff in the US way better as well.
The drug is worth at least $5 per share to a Big Pharma. But they will be stingy. Because they can be. They can smell the stink of vulnerability on this thing.
I'm sorry to be argumentative -- you don't get 3.5x sales on a single drug with a shelf life, and no pipeline. You get 1 to 2x sales, probably closer to 1.
$10 per share would be miraculous at this point.
It pains me to believe all the chips on are on BRAVE, or some other unknown miracle catalyst now.
Anything other than a buyout is literally corporate suicide at this point.
I'm going to be ultra-positive and say a buyout at $5 before the end of 2025.
No
N/A
OMG what a nitwit fest this kind of stuff turns this board into.
It's a balance between speed and amount. A buyout at $6 in 2 years vs a buyout at $10 in 5 years. That kind of thing.
None of us here should be buying individual stocks, me included. We're too dumb.
Now THAT is precisely how Executive Compensation is supposed to work
This is still worth at least $3 to a Big Pharma, who could easily optimize the US and get foreign sales moving with little overhead.
That's about all we have going for us right now.
BOHICA
If we hold above a buck it’ll be a miracle.
We’re down to one catalyst — BRAVE. That’s it.
Otherwise it’s like miners trapped underground. Slowly the oxygen goes.
We'll be lucky to stay above a buck
It never ends. The pain and disappointment never end. This company is like cancer.
Jesus -- here comes the flush.