Airedale, Re A/D
Thanks for shedding some more light. Can you please clarify exactly what the 21day breadth signal is? Do you mean that the cumulative breadth should be above its 21dma? Straight breadth is below 21DMA ($NYAD in Stockcharts.com) and looks like the chit in the Middle East you referenced. Basically I am trying to understand "the 21 day mv avg of nyse ad/dcl" in
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12037757

For the Dow, it is solidly below the 200dma. With June lows so close, it seems at least a test of that low seems possible for Monday. I can see nothing in the internals very encouraging for a long position. Also - is the converse also true? i.e. Can one sell the turn down from the upper 2%, 3% bands? In so, what does one look for breadthwise?

Geo

airedale88, Dow has the tendency the pierce the -3% band and touch -4%. I am not sure if the NYSE A/D filter can indicate this or not. Recent examples can be seen on 6/8 and 6/13. The -4% band lies currently at 10585 level. I find it odd that you would trade the ES based on the Dow bands, as the Dow can easily be skewed by a single component and become divergent from broader averages like the S&P and the NYA. (I am sure you do not use only the trading bands as the sole input - though your post appeared to imply that). Do you see the Dow bouncing from here or you are long ES because of the divergence, as it tagged only the 2% band. OEX did not touch the 2%, but almost there. But the downside momentum is strong enough to take the Dow to the -4% band before a bounce to midband (21DMA). I will welcome any comment, as this appears to be a very simple way to trade the Dow.

Jobs number ahead of time

Yes, you can get it now along with everyone else ...:)

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/report_analysis.aspx

Geo

http://www.patmedia.net/claudb/

Gewinnpotenzial = Profit target/Potential
Seitwaertsphase = Consolidation phase or sideways chop

Airedale, can you indicate how far along these cycles are? Especially 80 week and the 4.5 Year? I presume the 10 week nest of lows on end of October will be for all the cycles of 10 week and lower periodicities. Is this a correct assumption? Thanks.

Geo

Thanks, ugmar. I have no clue as to what "phasing" even means in this context, leave alone identifying it. I was just trying to identify the cycles - just the presence thereof, as directed by airedale.

The longest period I have ever been in the market with money at risk in the past 3 years is about 5 hours - even that is more of an exception. So this stuff is alien to me.

Geo

Interesting exercise/lesson. If I may intrude, I think I see the nominal 80wk cycle in the weeklies from 3/14/03 to 8/13/04. However - locating a pair of 40week cycles in this straight-up uptrend with small retracements makes determining it rather difficult. How does one identify a trough that qualifies in such an instant? I presume that this 80 wk cycle would be called a right-translated one.

Geo

3 day cycle! Now you are talking ... would be really excited if you start mentioning hourly cycles.

Geo

I have an ER2 target of 656 (probably 653-654 on the RUT) for this swing down. Likely to bounce to the pivot point of 666 tomorrow, which is likely to be sold. I have observed this contract has a thing about '6's for pivots. Short bias from 671 today after FOMC announcement.

BlissBull, are these daytrade setups? I ask as you state "for Monday". Does it mean that you expect the named issues close higher (for longs) or lower (for shorts)?

The launch was in November 2002, but had only a few stocks listed and some insane spreads. Not sure if the volume and OI have picked up these days. Perhaps used more for hedging rather than outright speculation. Couldn't have been very profitable because Nasdaq gave up their stake in NQLX and let Liffe take over.

Single Stock Futures have been trading for more than a year now. Trading is still rather thin. If you do not mean, SSF - then I misspoke.

OneChicago lists some 180 single stock futures including CSCO, Intel, Google etc. There is even a DIA futures.

http://www.onechicago.com/030000_products/oc_030101.html
NQLX is the other exchange for SSF.

CME is offering futures on ETFs also.

golfin, as a short term trader myself, I hope you will continue to contribute. What I can recommend is to present your views based on your methodology and stop at that. The title of this forum is "Short Term Trading using TA" ...

I tend to disregard posts with unidirectional bias ... (I am neither bear or bull, as I can be short one minute, long the next several times during the session). I try to to follow posts which are based on Hurst as a learning tool, as I am trying to move towards longer time frame trading and even hold a position overnight, which I have not done in years. mrcash, mrusa and mrairedale ... in particular (no disrespect to others. but I have followed them (especially airedale) since the Raging Bull days).

I was glad to see your short term oriented contributions and hope you will continue. Let your calls speak for you. You know best, of course,

Geo

YM through S2 as if it wasn't even there. Some covering ought to happen in this region. Printed 10584

ER2 Dec 05 heading for 668 ..which means around 665 for the RUT today.

Dow gap --- perhaps not today. They closed one at 10636. The one at 10504 or so ... may be soon. I doubt there is enough juice to take it down another 100 points in addition to the 80 point range so far. YM 10590 is certainly possible today. (Daily S2 and Weekly S1) ... ATR(10) is running around 90. Some measured move targets around 10600. 10555 is my target for a bounce.

mrusa, thought as much. Thanks for the feedback. I really wish I could move to a longer and less stressful time frame. May happen someday, but right now I am a bluecollar trader... need to ring the register and take a paycheck home (at least most of the days). And sleep at night.

Geo

mrusa1992, Hurst for intraday trading ... Have you (or airedale & other cycle practitioners) ever investigated your Hurst methods/Model with intraday data .... may be hourly or even tick bars. Try as I might, I just cannot bring myself to take any position home. My long term chart is based on 81'. My trading time frame is 144 ticks. I am sure there are tradable cycles, but may be there is as much noise as there is signal in these timeframes to figure out dominant cycles. Any comments? I trade YM (miniDow) and ER2 (Russell 2000 futures) and currently use nothing more than floor trader pivot points to plan my trades. TIA.

Geo

mrusa1992, You are playing the RUT like it is a Strad or something ... Very well done, sir. And thank you for sharing your trades/ideas almost real time here. Very encouraging ... at least for me (may be for others) to see that discplined application of a good methodology and homework can let one join the winners' circle, which eludes most trader-wannabes.


Geo

The course is $395 from the current publisher (Traders Press).

mrusa1992 - RUT model. Your calls based on your RUT models have been on the money. It is possible to see a pictorial depiction of your model? What is the smallest cycle that you track for the RUT? Is today's tagging 668 a possible trough coming early or do you still expect a move down by 7/29 - 8/1?

Q for airedale

Thank you for your RUT projection posted at TT
http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=38018

Before the 40wk target is reached, I assume there would be a nest of lows at 20wk, 10wk and smaller cycle troughs. Are these tradable, since per your analysis higher time frame cycles are in downward motion? I am curious about your own trading time frame ... what cycle length do you key on? Thanks.

hiker, if you send me the jpg file, I will be happy to post it here... I have sent you a PM via TT.

Geo

I have it in the list of things to do. You have suggested this before also. So I have it in the program. Thanks for the reiteration.

Interesting article on Business Cycles

May be old hat for you folks here...

http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htm

Thank you. I am a bar and day counter myself and use EXCEL a lot. Works well when you track only a few instruments (less than 6 in my case), but can get tedious even with macros and all for working with larger population of stocks and commodities.

Thank you for the awesome calls and trading of the Russell2k. Well done!

Geo

I have studied "Profit Magic". My question was not what you folks are talking about, but what tools you are using to calculate the cycles and build/test trading models other than the charting packages to plot the averages and perhaps the envelopes. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

I am curious to learn what tools you all use to build and keep track of the cyclic model(s).

How does one buy an intraday low and sell an intraday high?
If I know how to buy an intraday low, I don't think I need to wait for month-end strategies ...

What am I missing?

Deva,

You need to reference the URL of the image and not the web page - right click on the image and copy the URL from the properties ...

Your chart below ..


Geo

Most texts I have read consider this (3 white soldiers) as a bullish pattern (reversal of downtrend) - Nison, Morris et al.
e.g. http://www.litwick.com/indicators/2144.html - same as Honma's san-pei pattern, basically a strong reversal pattern after a downtrend.

Only this site
http://tradingday.com/c/candlesticks/candlesticksinstructions4.html
takes a contrarian view. However - this appears to be a day trading technique, expecting a pullback after three up sessions) For this to be valid, I would think upper shadows should be seen in the candles and possibly narrowing spreads as the rally reaches a known resistance area.

Hard to interpret - especially considering these 3 white soldiers came on the heels of 3 black crows. IMO, these patterns take on meaning only after substantial down or uptrends, which we have not had. Personally I see thrust shortening and non-overlap of the soldiers, giving a bearish bias for Monday trading - especially if there is a significant up gap opening.

How can a Mr. Cash ever be poor?

"And - imho, the bull move will not end until we see the capitualtion by the Small Specs i.e. until they go heavily net short."

Perhaps you meant to say: heavily net long.

Aficianados of cycle theory may be interested in the formation of Cycles Research Institute, which is attempting to do what the now defunct Foundation for the Study of Cycles used to do.

http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/

Just a FYI.

U.S. Treasury near debt ceiling limit
Mon Oct 4, 2004 04:33 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department still expects to hit its legally permitted ceiling for borrowing early this month and still is urging Congress to act to raise it, a Treasury spokesman said on Monday.
"The time-frame is October, early October. We'll obviously notify Congress at the appropriate time," Assistant Treasury Secretary Rob Nichols told reporters.

"Right before we hit it, we will notify Congress. That forecast is made on a day-to-day basis," Nichols added. He suggested Treasury could avoid piercing the debt ceiling -- which would represent a default on the government's ability to manage its debt -- until about mid-November by using extraordinary measures like tapping Treasury funds that are intended for purposes like currency stabilization.

Thank you for the explanation. I was just interested in knowing if the picture has changed any, since you specifically posted levels and stated that if 10400 is taken out, bears are in control or words to that effect. Per your response, I take it that though the levels are broken, the pattern is still intact validating your forecast. Have a great day.

Geo

Are the indices now in bear camp - now that the Dow and S&P have broken the levels you indicated (10400 for the Dow)? Is the bear phase of intermediate time frame (multi-month) in your analysis?

TIA.

Geo

Hello Lee Kramer:

Do you ever do such a thing as sleeping? If you are using IB for overnight trading - I thought they took their servers down at midnight ET or something. How do you trade with such interruptions? I am considering scalp type trades in the overnight market (insomnia has to have some benefits) - is this a worthwhile study?

TIA

Geo