Chevron seems to make sense

But that's just my speculation and opinion based on all the factors you list and have been discussed here and elsewhere. If the well comes in as predicted it just seems logical from a location point of view. Given Chevron's current and planned operations around there so far. And their public pronouncements about plans to be a Big Dog in American gas production.

Given the connections (old chevron drilling area) it seems reasonable that informal conversation has taken place. Nothing definitive and nothing that anyone would want to make public right now. Nor is that a conspiracy theory or some nefarious secret as some might shout about. It's just good business and keeping one cards close until it's time to lay'em down.

But it's crystal ball stuff at this point. Until we know how much and how exploitable.

Fortune to us all

But we'll be happy when it soars

I'm a big fan of buying at the best available price. But that's defined moment to moment. And nobody has sufficient crystal ball to see a few cents lower.

My opinion here hasn't really changed. This stock plays low until we smell gas. Then this goes quickly and very likely a buyout situation or some other that will pop with little warning and little opportunity to join the party.

Nothing I've seen since TD has been out of the ordinary nor strange. (No matter what some say). Management knows where they are going and seems well focused on getting there. Instead of puff PR that in the end means squat if we don't smell gas.

In my mind as long as we are anywhere south of .50 it's raining soup. And the only limitation is the size of my bucket.

Fortune to us all

I prefer to rely on Greed

It is much more predictable. Morals and ethics are way to fluid and malleable to fit the individual. But greed is generally predictable and recognizable.

Mainland can be pushed downward as long as there's no real news. As anyone with no confidence in their position will be tempted to bail on rumor of this or that. Like playing poker you evaluate your play and the play of those at the table. And only greed is a factor. One would never count on morals or ethics in a poker game.

Fortune to us all

Consider the spread maybe .25 possible?

Almost a .05 spread between AEXP and MNLU right this moment. Hard to not think something has to move up or down.

Now as a buyer (which I am) I could enjoy that. I've placed my modest bet and since the pots still open I keep increasing it as I can. But in case the gas gods are listening anytime Mainland decides to move up I'll be all smiles.

Fortune to us all

Sometimes it's takes longer costs more

I never felt the Mainland management were paperwork mavins. And I'd rather they worry and figure on the well and getting the gas anyway. As someone who has to prepare a report from time to time I know they can just take time. And there's no substitute if you want it right.

Considering the silence I'm putting my money on someone knowing that this is a non-issue in the bigger picture. But that's just my take for sure.

Fortune to us all.

Only the smell of gas moves the price

Hi Seeker. I agree there's tons of info that should move the price. But demand and therefore price are also strongly impacted by belief and emotion. Since all people make decisions emotionally and rationalize logically we will need the smell of gas to make things move. (provable exploitation and production).

Since MNLU has been promoed and pumped up several times I think that creates the counter feeling that this is just a pumper. I thought that myself until I dug deeper. Now, I figure the lack of hype and promo in the past months is a positive sign that the management has a real tiger by the tail. And want to be sure to maximize the end result so aren't wasting effort until there's something very solid.

It's a super opportunity for those who have delved deeper in DD to realize this is really a sleeper waiting to fly. We buy on the cheap and practice some Zen patience. And when the stock actually pops it will go very fast (buyout IMO) with little if any time for the "wait and see" crowd to get on board.

I look at this as a low risk on a few grand or even a couple hundred with a huge upside payback by the end of the year.

Fortune to us all.

Now who is depressed? Not me

Hey Popo. I just keep on buying MNLU. It's a super bargain at the price. And nothing that has been kicked around the last several weeks/months even starts to shale my confidence in both the current project and the ability of Mainland Resources management to pull it off.

Now being realistic I acknowledge there remains risk until we actually smell gas (said this before). In my view this is what is keeping the PPS in the ranges seen so far. Folks want absolute guarantees but don't realize that the lack of that guarantee is what makes this a play for folks with a short chip stack. Couple it with our desire for instant gratification which gets folks whining about how long it takes to get certain things done.

My math is as follows. Every share I can gather at the .30's has the very real potential to reap me huge profits in a very compressed time frame (months, not years). And because I have kept my basis low while adding total shares I can spell success at most any level from a buck on up. And at some of the numbers we've kicked around on here it could be measured in 7 figures.

I suppose it helps that I am a poker player and have patience to see the last card.

Fortune to us all.

Real news and it's effect

So we have an extension until end of August for the merger. As I'm sure we all knew was coming. Don't see that as significant to the PPS given it really being old news. Anyone make a case for this moving price up or down in shorter term?

Still waiting on workover info (contractor , schedule) which is in part determined by Old Man River and rain. Anyone know how many outfits would have the necessary rig for this operation? As I understand it's a trickier workover then typical given depth and pressure.

Whose got some skinny on the board change? News guys resume reads well but those can say most anything. Experience in financing issues? Thoughts?

Though the last few days have been entertaining I note that the PPS has held fairly well around .30. My feeling is that's what we get into July but always ready to be happily surprised.

Fortune to all.

Another possibility

Throwing around the word liar makes folks defensive. But anyone can be honestly mistaken. As far as I can find there are no suits over unpaid bills or anything else as all that would have to be part of the official record somewhere.

I saw this same story about lawsuits and unpaid bills months ago. Still no substance I can discover.

Frankly I think Mainland is taking the right approach of not trying to explain unsubstantiated stories. I want them focused on making the BP field productive. Not attempting the impossible of actually quelling a rumor.

Not much opp to flip IMO

I just don't much clear opportunity to make a flip with any reliable sense of success. PPS is at it's low range and the range isn't especially large. And being shut out is a real risk. I'm in and staying in. Buying more at any chance at all.

Fortune to us all

From your mouth to Gods ear Mike

I like a $1 by end of July.

I so love being back in the green

Nice turn to .36 today. I enjoyed the cheap but I so love it when I'm in the green. You think folks are finally starting to wake up.

Most likely end game scenario IMO

I'm with you on this geo. Nothing says to me that the folks at Mainland want to be in the gas business. Once they prove out the well and by extension the field they'll pass that to a deep pockets who makes their money selling gas.

Don't know about a bidding war as I wouldn't be surprised that a deal is done which is why there's little investment in fluffing the pps as things take their course. No need when a proved well closes the deal.

Anything Made by Man can be destroyed by nature.

But given the people who are running Mainland I'll keep on feeling confident they have done the best to consider these issues. And to be just a bit Zen. If you can do nothing about it then do not worry on it.

So I expect the well to survive in good shape for workover when the crew can get to it. And I'll just enjoy buying these cheap shares until then.

A Way to stop trading without stopping

I know that makes little sense. But that's what I saw the high ASK price as. Like giving a client a super high quote when you don't want their work but don't want to say NO.

I think we are close to the bottom

And I've never been good enough to pick it until after the fact. Based on current info I'm a steady buyer from here to about .50. Going in either direction as I don't see much move below .30 except for possible fast dips.

Based on my belief that when this does actually turn it turns hard and fast. With little opportunity to get on board unless you're glued to the computer.

I could say more real news would be great. But rehash fluff would be troublesome since I see the lack of hype right now as a positive sign. A pumper would be shouting but Mainland just keeps working.

Fortune to us all

It is the crux of this play

Meaning the actual amount of recoverable gas that is confirmed. And no one has the final answer to that question until the work is done. If it's low, even below economic levels then that hurts. If it's up in predicted range then we have a home run and beyond. It is what makes this a SPECULATIVE Play. With no guarantee but some very good odds in my thought.

All this up, down and sideways on the PPS is just noise until the main event. And if it wants to move downward then it makes it easier for me to gather more shares as I'm playing this for the win.

Not blindly but as a good odds bet based on all the date developed so far and the folks involved.

Fortune to us all.

Flood is a side show

Regardless of it being fast or slow. The floods are a side show to the main event. If it takes a few more weeks to get in there I can't comprehend why anyone would be discouraged from that. It's just weather folks. I suppose if the Mississippi decided to relocate and leave our well in the middle of the channel that might be an issue. But I don't think that's all that likely a risk.

But if over the next months the movers and shakers want to make Mainland Resources cheaper then I'll be buying. at 40-50 if that's what we have but I won't hold back if it dips below 30.

Direction?

So we've hit .35 Volume low as usual. Anyone have a thought on if this is a new bottom marker or are we going lower for a bit?

I don't have any real sense of this but wouldn't be surprised either way. If we go down I do think we see bottom at the .30 point since we sat there for a long time. Just as easily a bit of demand could slide us up to the .50 level that some folks see coming soon.

Lacking supporting news I think I lean to slide to .30. But this is a super deal no matter what so next week I'll be grabbing more for sure.

Fortune to us all

MNLU a simple bet

Let's face it folks. The market doesn't care about all the fine work done to find and explore this field. The market proposition has resolved itself to proof that the find can be exploited. And my own take is that's the smell of gas. Any phrase that includes qualifiers won't make this stock fly. But a definitive answer to there's gas and we can get it out will.

My own thought is that once proved out this field is snapped up by a big player in gas production? Id see that as the best way to maximize share value as the investment to be in the "gas" business is huge. But that's just my gut opinion.

In terms of a timeline for this stock taking off all we need do is look at the published info to date. (anyone who sees an error please correct me) Workover to start sometime in 3rd quarter. So anywhere from July through September for workover to actually start. If in July then we may have results mid August. But for reasons like the availability of special drilling rigs and equipment the actual work may not happen until late summer (even Sept) which would put results well into October or even November. I believe the announced time is 5-6 weeks after start of work.

The question now for someone owning or thinking of owning Mainland Resources stock boils down to how likely do you see the eventual proof of this find? That proof won't be a secret and will overwhelm any effort to manipulate this stock.

Right now we are at the whims of players who can push the stock price up or down a few cents with their machinations. It's the process of the market and how those folks make their living. The price IS NOT moving because of some solid fact or information. It does present opportunity at times for profit from MNLU but it is most definitely a sideshow. Something to watch until the main event comes on stage.

I admit I like the current prices. I see the likelihood of eventual proof as high and the cost to place a bet as very very low. If the market wants to keep them this low all summer that's fine with me. Of course when they go up I also get excited so I have the best of both worlds.

Fortune to us all

Gotta love expertise

There's nothing like the expertise that exists on this board. I have leaned more about the technical side of exploration and drilling then I could have imagined. Which definitely helps put the plans and actions of Mainland Resources into context. Nothing like facts to counter rumor. You couldn't buy this expertise for big bucks. Thanks to all those smarter then me (well everybody that is)

Got more at .37 Whoopee

Well it's a mixed emotion thing right. On the one hand I like buying this cheap. On the other hand I want to see this start what I see as an inevitable meteoric rise. Of course the nice thing with that is I have something to be happy about no matter which way we go right now.

I really don't see this moving much until we at least have a crew at work. And even then if it stayed flat I wouldn't be surprised. My own take right now is we are at a balance point where those who are in to this are in for the proof of the find. But we don't have a lot of other folks clamoring to get a piece of this action either through not realizing or not believing the magnitude of what is in the offing.

No offense to those who think this is set to fly but I've read that prediction many times in the last year. Sooner or later it has to br right but based on current circumstances I don't see any reason for it to do so until we start attracting new blood who want in.

Given the potentials it is a bit of a surprise we aren't seeing more action and demand. But I think when the demand hits it will hit hard. I'm getting my bucket as ready as I can to catch the soup.

Still bouncing between .37 and .40

Anyone have thoughts on this. I see there was some modest volume above 130K so far. I'm trying to get filled at .37 which may be overly optimistic but it's in todays range at the moment.

Looks like someone moved 100K shares or so at .39 Then we slipped on smaller volume as low as .37.

Patience usually works. Barring other news of which there doesn't seem to be any right this moment.

Fortune to us all.

Someday I'll be big enough

To move a stock price with my actions. I can see that anyone playing with large numbers has to have a different approach from my own. And of course size is relative depending on the capitalization/number of shares available. And whether you are adding to or opposing a trend.

Of course one advantage to large numbers is the ability to spread ones risk. If you have 100K shares I think it would be foolish to generally take an immediate position with everything. One can pursue multiple strategies, especially when the direction is unclear. (Unless the goal is to manipulate the stock price to your advantage of course)

It's one of the reasons I see Mainland Resources as a really exciting and profitable play at many levels. Even someone working with limited resources can (at least right now) take a flyer that's likely to payoff big. Much better then a lottery ticket.

Fortune to us all.

MNLU management are pros

If I am sure of one thing in all the DD and research. The management of Mainland Resources are professionals at what they do. Yes, there's flooding in Mississippi. Like every year. And the folks who drilled this well knew that and planned for that. Like they have planned and allowed for every contingency so far. It's such a reliable thing that the time you spend waiting for the flood to recede can't really be classified as a delay at all. Delays occur from the unforeseen or the low probability event. And that ain't flooding along the Mississippi River. I'm in New England and I know that.

Now let's talk real prospects and timelines. As I read the published material this is essentially right on time.I see start work June/July with some results August/September. Realizing that if it was work start Aug/Sept with results Oct/Now it would be neither a disaster nor really off the time line as there has to be a big margin in these sort of estimates. This is not a railroad after all.

The stock price may fluctuate (come on people it is a penny stock after all). That's to be expected. Being a risk taker I'll exploit those moves if I think I can read them. But exploiting stock market moves should never be seen as bashing this company or their operation. From the beginning over a year ago I was and remain confident in the folks running this show. After all they are going to make me a sh**load of money.

Good fortune to us all.

Quiet day low volume no news

How many folks see this as the pattern for the next month? 2 months?

What events will move MNLU ? End of floods and ability to start workover? What happens if workover doesn't start until the end of the third quarter so results get delayed until late October or even November? Whose got thoughts they'd like to share.

Where are we in terms of PPS by end of May? June?

My own thoughts is we have bottomed (hence I'm all in again) and that we see upward trending once we have a workove crew on the well.

I don't see huge PPS change by end of May but if it looks like we get to work in late June or early July then I expect uptrending.

Of course my guesses always subject to change immediately. But fortune to us all.

It's play until we get gas

Hey carl. If we've actually seen the bottom then it will be the first time in history I will have been able to buy at bottom. So far, we'll see.

I keep saying. This stock is subject to all sorts of play 8ntil we actually have PROVEN gas. Most folks don't want to get into the arcana of drill tests and geology. Their question is "how much gas?". When we can answer that affirmatively with a high number then the players will be overwhelmed and this baby will soar. (IMO of course)

Now the question is what do we do until then. I tend to play a bit as I like increasing my shares without increasing my investment. Since the manipulators aren't going to stop there's nothing that says you can't take advantage if you have the nerve. But that has it's risks as well so I don't recommend it for the faint of heart. But so far they have been fairly predictable. Other folks put their bet down and just stand pat. Either works and will work once we have confirmed volumes of gas from this hole.

But I agree with those who think we are at or very near the bottom on this. Which is why I am once again all in on Mainland Resources. I agree that as the floods recede and work gets under way I expect some rise as others start to position themselves for the answer to the first question.

Even a blind dog gets one


Now and again. The increased emphasis and PUBLICITY for NG ,especially shale gas has to move this market. I reentered yesterday at .36 within minutes of the turn (that's the blind dog part as I wanted in but how often do you actually hit the actual inflection) Many thanks to those on this board and all the good discussion that really helps.

More emphasis to the general public can only help this PPS. As the clamor continues over gasolene prices I suspect this emphasis will only increase the demand and play for Mainland Resources among others.

So good fortune to all. Now lets have a nice runup.

Past is Prologue?

I think this is clearly possible. As you observe while drilling was taking place the price actually fell to .28 for a time. And stayed around 30.

Of course we now have more info and some test results. It remains to be seen if that is sufficient to hold the price up. My take is that .30 is still very possible.

Good argument for a bottom

Hey Maniac. You may have the right thought on a bottom around .38. We've been bouncing tightly around there for 2 weeks so far. But I think the MM will try a push down this week.

Not sure I see much advance prior to more solid news. Based on the thought that most who are knowledgeable here are are already here. I think a serious speculative advance would take new blood.

On the other hand I wouldn't be displeased if I was wrong on that at all. Good fortune to everyone.

Maybe where you are

Hey King. Perhaps it's been cold where you are. But globally I will refer to the latest numbers from NASA.

NASA: The 12-month running mean global temperature has reached a new record in 2010 — despite recent minimum of solar irradiance
"We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade" and "there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20°C/decade that began in the late 1970s."
June 3, 2010

http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/03/nasa-giss-james-hansen-study-global-warming-record-hottest-year/

Even invested in gas and oil I don't wish to live in a lube pit. Not breathe hydrocarbons so anyone can make an extra fraction of a cent.

One reason I like Mainland is they appear to be doing this well right. If it costs a few more bucks over the long run we will profit.

And there's that devil


In those pesky details. The key here is they prove the field and find. I don't see dilution as a real issue as I don't see Mainland Resources as wanting to be in the gas production business as the operator. Hence no reason to dilute.

Once it's sufficiently proved this field is grabbed by a big player (most likely IMO) for reserves and long term exploitation. Mainland may keep a piece but mostly I expect them to take the money. These guys are explorers and have other fishin holes to test.

I expect this to be extremely lucrative. The numbers I keep hearing and the ones I work up myself seem outrageous. But if the assumptions based on published info proves out then they may well be on the conservative side.

In terms of the NOW I think we were ignored by the MM the last 2 weeks. Hence the slight down off .40 but nothing dramatic. Baring other solid info if the MM come back to play next week would anyone care to venture a quess of where we go. I have nothing mathematical but can't stop considering that every time I've become convinced of a bottom in MNLU it wasn't. Like it waits me out.

Gee shale you got me excited

I really think it's one of those things that seems so important to us on the outside and of no real import to those on the inside. The PPS is well in line today (slight advantage AEXP) but proobably not if you were actually trying to buy.

But you are right that it would be one less thing to consider if they would do as Larry say and "Git er done".

What's his stock position?

Hi shale. good info. I'd expect the longer term compensation to be stock based. Anyone have the numbers for Mike Newport?

Of course when this well proves out I think he deserves a raise. Of course assuming he has a strong stock participation he'll get one.

Reading market needs good tea leaves

Hi Gasman. In general I agree. And when there a workover crew in place and onsite then I'd expect the trend to reverse. But the market seems to discount the actual drilling of the well. I believe they are waiting for a guarantee of production. Otherwise the well is only a hole in the ground.

Right now AEXP is at about 34 cents. (well .086 which at 4-1 is .344 for MNLU) Which seems to indicate a down side pressure as long as this spread exists given the fixed 4-1 exchange ratio for the merger. Whether MNLU moves down or AEXP moves up. Lacking solid news my guess is downward because that's been the general behavior lacking news to move it otherwise.

.30 may be a stretch but I've picked other seemingly stretch targets for this stock that have been hit if I wait a bit. I'd say the end of the week would provide more clarity. If we're still in the high 30's then I may feel we've reached bottom.

But today I also note th todaye DOW is way off. I have observed a counter pattern where on major down on the DOW MNLU holds. And then when the DOW rebounds MNLU moves. Like all things in the market it's all in how you read the tea leaves.

Market wisdom's can be a good place to start playing a stock but I've been watching / owning this stock for about a year. I've learned trust my subconscious analysis of the signals. I might be wrong but I'm always confident.

Where we going this week?

I need a new crystal ball. This one is always cloudy. But making my guess I think we're in for a lackluster week. Trending down slightly for lack of news. Supposedly both the general market and oil will open down. I think we'll share in that at least at the start.

Of course if real news pops all bets are off. But my target remains .30 before a real turn.

No one should take this as expression of lack of confidence in MNLU or it's management. This is strictly my call on what the market does this week. The PPS on this issue is not really being driven by facts on the ground as of yet. And as always I can and often am totally wrong.

Some Fine Folks Here

I was just reading some posts on another board dealing with Mainland Resources. And the vision of spoiled children throwing a tantrum and kicking their feet came to mind.

I note this board membership has increased by 10 (55 to 65) in the weeks I've been here. And I already know it's folks of rational mind and thought. We may not always come to the same conclusions but that's what makes horse racing and the stock market. Always good information and an openhanded willingness to share thought.

I see we are having a quiet day. With no significant volume and no news. The MM's must have better fish to fry today but I think we'll see them back next week. So since the sun is shining and my orders are placed (in case the MM's wake up) I think I'll fire up my motorcycle and take a ride. Since life is for living. Everyone have the finest weekend.

Don

Another reasonable assumption

The better they prove the find the less they will have to give up to fund development if they go that route. In other words the tastier the pie the smaller the piece they have to share.

Geo you were right on

Your info is always spot on. And that's a great help. And I didn't think you're really picking on Mainland. I agree they know what they are doing and that things take the time they take. But you are also right about it being good to hear from Mainland Resources management confirming and explaining simply all the stuff you had figured out for us already. Great stuff dude. And if someone is already buying the first one I'll buy the second one when this all hits.

We are ahead of the curve

Hey geo. You got it. There was nothing new in todays PR. But only because every issue has been exhaustively discussed here. But let's give em a pass this time. Let Mainland focus on getting to the gas.