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200 kW seems to be the sweet spot for Class 8 trucks and the likes (waste management trucks, excavators etc.) the 150 kW in a Progen engine is obviously being used in Last mile delivery, buses and smaller vehicles.
Assuming PLUG are close to having 200+ kW they will need to decide so they integrate into a drive train/engine compartment like Bosch/Nikola and Hyzon or keep it separate and supply the electricity indirectly. Ballard have the widest range of high power solutions for buses, trains, ships and I have a feeling that is the sort of market Plug would like to address next, may be in tandem with SK and BAE Systems where buses are already being powered.
However you have to ask how much it will cost to prepare and launch any new product given the current financial situation. Cash should be available by the end of 2025, assuming the DOE loan starts supplying some funds in Q3 this year.. future opportunities will slip in line with that
My issue with blue hydrogen is that it is coming from a hydrocarbon fuel source through Steam methane reforming or SOEC. So they shouldn't be getting incentives
I would prefer my incentives to be towards electrolysis as the core technology to encourage scaling of the eco system to reduce costs. In 2024 it will be hard to get true green hydrogen through electrolysis as the grid isn't connecting the wind and solar farms at a fast enough rate. As time goes by though you will see electrolysis plants either directly connected to these farms or buying through the state power companies the output from them.
The hold up is in the permitting and the connection process. Manchin is trying to break that log jam.
I also think the hydro electric industry are very lazy in adding turbine capacity - modern turbines would increase output significantly without building more dams.
Been waiting for some indication that our R&D is delivering. currently everything is based on the 150 kW fuel cell… just line them up in parallel to get more power.
if they have a bigger power same size cell then introducing it into the ProGen engine for vans/trucks and stationary power solutions would be “easy”.
I wonder if any analyst has spotted this for Q1 earnings call questions….
Mind you with current expense controls I don't expect to see anything come out of the lab this year unless paid for by a trial customer
almost certainly to pay his tax bill (from other business not necessarily PLTR)
The purpose of a prospectus is so that the selling shareholder (as you state one of the original financiers in the SPAC back in 2020) will sell to a single entity ( may be more than one I guess).
This ensures the share do not immediately hit the market.
I think the amendment reference is for the legal opinion added at the end , the rest dates back to 2023.
the news about the MOU is 13 months old. but it seems they are now in a position to talk about it with clients. Been wondering where this had got to as IMHO this is the best short term (12 months) channel for new orders and shipments.
I’m not sure if Nikola includes 1,000,000 miles of hydrogen in the price of the truck. That was the original business plan from Trevor Milton but may well have been changed.
I suspect that some hydrogen is included so current fill ups may not be visible as revenue, unless we are filling up Hyundai or other FCEV trucks.
All will be revealed in the Q1 numbers though.
It was only 2 years ago - maybe only 18 months. The Microsoft project at Albany proved that xMW of fuel cells could run for 48 hours straight supplying the right power needed for data centers. Caterpillar with Ballard have completed the same test as part of a DOE grant with Microsoft.
The plan as laid out then was for a gen 2 system to be installed at a test site for Microsoft AFAIK that was done last year (3MW I think), a prototype (1MW) was delivered to another Datacenter customer though so at least one stationary system is in operation. Similarly the EV charging system has at least one early customer installation.
The next generation of large stationary systems with better integration of components and packaging was scheduled for this year and would involve an installation at a Microsoft DC of their choosing and hopefully multiple EV charging locations. If successful this would then start the commercial discussions about pricing and roll out (I suspect with at least one other but more likely two other companies. - Bloom and Caterpillar/Ballad) so roll out would be 2026 at the earliest. Until there is is sufficient guaranteed hydrogen supply they aren't going to do many and the costs of these systems needs to come down before they make commercial sense compared with Diesel. or Nat gas systems.
As with so many of the “Applications” as PLUG likes to call them scale will matter, only material handling with the thousands a year of fuel cells have shown to be able to be priced competitively.
The strategy set out 3 years ago focussed on producing the H2 that the country needs now so that when the applications are commercially viable there is the H2 to meet demand. With the production plants now 24 months behind the original timeline we have seen even material handling sites pushed back due to uncertain H2 supply. (not just from PLUG)
The govt needs to urgently get H2 production up and running hence the DOE loan for PLUG.
good to see this getting some press, now we know what the critical parts are - the hydrogen tanks and batteries…
it isn't clear what he is pushing for.
the proposed rules still gave Blue hydrogen credits just not the full $3/kg as true green hydrogen
so is he (and BP) asking for the full $3/kg for blue was well as green?
The CERAweek coverage on CNBC has been useful this week. The whole LNG market impacted by Europe is now looking for new things to use it and hydorgen production is high on the list.
These companies want credits for everything (LNG porduction then turning it into blue H2) - PLUG was planning to go ahead with green hydrogen before the IRA came along - credit and subsidy free.
electrolysers (that work)
The grants keep on coming.
This is a nice size project as they start the scaling up.
If they win against Foxconn what do they get?
AFAIK the Georgia phase 1 liquefaction was all Chart Industries equipment. PLUG is switching over in the second phase to provide an additional 15 TPD capability.
I may be wrong as we don't get that detail and you have more contacts for sure.
Would be good to see a counter on the web site of Tons produced and tankers despatched…..
I wonder if Chart used PLUG Georgia as a reference sell for this contract.
I hope the second phase in Georgia - using PLUGs liquefaction technology will be smoother and faster than the Chart systems.
wrong chart. but you probably know that
the Fortesque/Plug relationship is different eery time you look at it!
Last year it seemed they were getting closed again with PLUG n the FID for their huge Australian project even though Fortesque are supposedly making their own electrolysers.
For this Washington State porject I am not sure which electrolyser it will be. Every installation PLUG makes extends the distance between them and the followers. Recent price increases though may have damaged Plugs lead.
With Fortesque also taking over the HYVIA hub from Nikola using NEL electrolysers still with PLUG cryo equipment their US “product mix” is complicated.
no mention of where they will source the renewable electricity. Will they install solar panels and wind turbines onsite? Power plant foot prints aren't very large, but they do have grid connection (to push into the grid but no doubt ca be used to pull from the grid) that would need changes in the 45V rules to qualify as green hydrogen.
I saw somewhere that they may try to get into the EV component supply business - I would assume they need some of the old staff back who understood the software , sensors, hub motors etc.
is anyone else using the hub motor architecture?
by focussing on components they dont need a huge factory or staff so investment of $200m may be enough
I haven't seen anything about the fuel cells being most efficient, but the MCFC are flexible in terms of input fuel and tri-generation has shown promise. But at what price? These systems should have been selling well with microgrid and other markets.
The FCEL SOEC systems are the most efficient electrolysers though. (better than Bloom’s)
But they require high heat and constant supply of electricity as well as being slow to start up so the market is quite small
Hence the ideal application is alongside nuclear reactors (as per the Ukraine installation). A very small market.
The skid based 5MW and 10 MW PEM electrolysers are what are selling given they can use renewable electricity sources as they are fast to respond to variable inputs
Yes their report was a disappointment and today they went back to where that took them.
Although energy stocks are still not in vogue, probably won’t be until 45V credits are confirmed later in the year.
they, like FCEL, arent getting any of the fuel cell grants dished out by the DOE yesterday. going to the PEM stacks and US based manufacturing facilities.
Their results a month ago were weaker but they are better placed than the others for 2024.
pretty solid report. Not sure why the initial spike collapsed but today wasn't a good market day and may be their forecasts aren't aggressive enough.
Break even by end of this year seems very achievable given the numbers and their backlog plus new business expected.
given Home Depot s one of the original Pedestal customers this will be 4 big distribution centers to be delivered this year, they will be opening with GenDrive powered fork lifts , may be with on site hydrogen production as well as these are huge facilities.
with higher prices and no lease backs.
so very much PLUG related, just because PLUG doesn't announce orders (they ay when they receive them) doesn't mean we shouldn't be watching their key customers for early pipeline information.
GenDrives are already 30% margin and if they generate their own hydrogen the fueling “loss” will not apply...
Some good news from Home Depot
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/home-depot-to-open-distribution-centers-in-home-professional-push.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToFacebook&fbclid=IwAR28vlngqPIxV2kgowB-NVuUl7h2qqcLQDYam58V-6ThSe2P8PJ1kgX0ZOo_aem_Aacr1OAx9F7jDhsyEj2tiRsHXLC_yKN3NfkZrVoYJM2Ar_DXd74N_aiCPwRir0SGwQ8
Currently 14 Pro distribution centerS adding 4 more this year. One in Toronto Jack!
so they have pushed back the interest payment that was due on the old notes from March until the June date for the new notes but paying 7% now.
with the DOE loan (If approved soon) money not coming in until late Q3 at the earliest its going to be a tight ship for 6 months OLIN coming on line will help
Good to see them stepping up and acknowledging that private companies have started this already.
About 2 years too late and no sure how it gets implemented. But it will help Nikola in 2025 onwards as they ramp up production
it is from Sunday night:
CEO better be careful about reservations - Steve Burns and Trevor Milton lost their jobs/sent to jail after similar claims.
Never understood why they offer the reservation system anyway its 2 years before they will be produced. A simple sign up for updates system would suffice with questions about how serious they are in buying or just getting the info.
the current trend is definitely sideways. and $5 is the resistance to breakthrough.
it will probably be Q2 results before there is sufficient actual evidence to may be change your mind, in he mean time there are signs that changes made are likely to have a positive effect
when do you think the 45V rules will be finalized - I am expecting them to be changed more beneficial to PLUG for existing, and pre 2028, plants. Certainly they need that incentive to be able to get cash flow positive before end 2025, but the current price is well oversold IMHO.
Was planning to wait for Q1 numbers (7 weeks away) but added a few today since the market is helping us nicely and a higher low is in
we should be getting closer to $6 IMHO.
The “going concern” addition at the Q3 results dropped us from $6 to $3-$3.50
Now going concern is no longer valid we should be progressing towards $6 (may be lower due to ATM dilution) combined with the realization that the margin profile is changing (that is what ad us at $6 to start with).
Oh and someone may have read the interview with the cryo team and understand what the real daily usage is….
very surprised we haven't seen a bigger rise since earnings and deals like this have “leaked out” as more and more FCEVs seen on the road in the customers colors.
my understanding is they will have 20 by end of this quarter
PLUG have supposedly taken delivery of at least one as well.
well they received the money, I guess it isnt “revenue” but more project financing receipts. the 10Q should help identify where it is accounted
some BEVs may convert to FCEV as they may get better availability ad they realize that H2 is the way to go for all but very specific uses (one shift 250 mils per day).
Doubled my Jan 2025 $1 call leap to try to claw back some losses on stocks.
just watched the conference call replay (on their web site).
good to see revenues at last and to get the full run down on the Sines project and phases. makes the 500MW project possible IMHO so long as their partners deliver.
Seems they are being cautious - unlike an American h2 company CEO/CFO pair.
Hopefully the IRA/45V rule changes will enable them to enter the US market although their small project strategy will need to break out into larger sites (I think this was their planned approach anyway)
bought a lot much higher so glad o see them getting some traction with SP and may add to average down.
no mention where they are going to source the electricity to drive the SOC electrolysers.
I thought refineries were consumers of electricity .
If this is to really decarbonize their plants they need MCFC cells like FCEL has to remove the carbon.
No dates or numbers - a nothing burger
Oh and PLUG is up more then Bloom on this no news
they ought to do monthly production numbers like all other vehicle manufacturers. Quarterly at a minimum and within 2 days of the end of period.
Currently they expect to make 350 FCEV this year essentially one a day - this I hop can be increased but they haven't specified the supply chain constraint. They certanly have orders for most of these vehicles so that isn’t holding them up
its not meant to stop the bleeding, or be a puff piece.
its an educational webinar for people considering temporary fueling solutions as they trial things like Hydrogen FCEV like Nikola, Hyundai and others. Installing a LH2 system for a fleet of say 50 trucks is a risky endeavor until hey are established. It will also take time so us the mobile refueler as you build up your fleet.
would be interesting to know what Biagi ’s strategy is here.
It could move the needle though if you find the little tit bit of information that contradicts the Andy/Paul/Sanjay standard text for Hydrogen refueling numbers. I would tend to believe these guys.
I’m sure PLUG will take the FCEVs eventually (by end 2025).
The Arizona hub is owned by fortisque but i think the liquefaction was already ordered and will be supplied if fortesque continues
Nikola have already had some hydrogen from PLUGs Georgia plant (gaseous) but with focus on west coast would expect the, to wait until Texas is built (mid 2024). Like so many plans everything is slipping 12-18 months due to delays on tax credits and uncertainty as to if they apply even
They have access to $1bn via an ATM. That will last through 2024 but if they get the DOE loan (in Q3) eye won’t need it all.
So valid to remove going concern, I’m sure the accountants and attorneys were consulted as well.
They have taken $300m from ATM already which they got a legal opinion on as it seemed too fast according to the rules for the ATM and that should last them 3 months or more.
An interesting call with delays from customers who can’t secure hydrogen or can’t get FID until the IRA 45V credits are changed. Hence huge inventory still. Hydrogen is now more plentiful but demand increasing daily