I like to be conservative in my estimates - while I definitely hope they surprise to the upside I would still be happy if they hit 0.06.

I checked analyst estimates and they are calling for 11.5M in revenue and 0.05 EPS (US GAAP) or 0.06 normalized EPS.

I think its quite achievable.

E.

My guess would be a normalized EPS of 0.06 and revenues of 11.6M.

What I am more interested in is the forward guidance/progress they have made in terms of adding card programs, premier card, pharma, plasma additions etc..

E.

In terms of plasma there aren’t that many so quite easy to find (they also had a bunch of PRs back in the day announcing some of them)

CSL is definitely one of them, Grifols I’d assume is the largest, B positive is another I remember.

E.

FYI Earnings will be March 12th.

Strong relative strength for PAYS today which is nice to see after such a strong sell off and continued market sell off today. It think we are due for a bounce RSI is at the lowest we have seen and represents the quickest time to drop more than 10%. I'm hopeful some of this will clear and that PAYS will shine with earnings.

While all the the other companies are cutting guidance and expecting tempered growth PAYS will show pretty impressive results within that context. They also don't have international sales or an international supply chain that will be impacted. So overall we are quite sheltered fundamentally and the sell off with PAYS particularly is quite unjustified they are simply "throwing the baby out with the bath water".

Looked at BABYF quickly - there really is not much in terms of financials to look at so can't speak to that... Sales minimal, still in R&D/pre-launch phase.

That being said, the sector is growing and its a good niche to be in. The new agreement appears promising. Also happy to see the strong insider ownership - this is one of the factors that attracted me to PAYS/TPNL at the beginning as it creates strong alignment of interest. Overall worth putting a small bit in it and watch it develop (still a little early stage for me but risk/reward appears okay given certain factors). Most Company's in this space trade at 3-5x revenue though if it can get the same traction as Beyond the Meat then 25x+ multiple of revenue is possible in the short term if it can show strong growth - company value is 60M as an FYI)


E.

Highest shares shorted since November - was quite happy at how well this held up today, built a very nice daily chart/relative strength when the market itself continued to be weak.

Looking forward to the earnings! (and a short squeeze!)

On other interesting news.. Chinese Doctors are using infusions of blood plasma to try to treat Coronavirus patients.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hospital/chinese-doctors-using-plasma-therapy-on-coronavirus-who-says-very-valid-approach-idUSKBN20B1M6

Virus fears are overblown on this name - they have no sales outside the US (which is where the primary Virus fears are), the company operates in a niche market that is counter-cyclical in a sense (ie. people that need money are more likely to give plasma in poor economic environments=higher earnings for PAYS) and Q4/YE yearnings should likely impress in the coming weeks and growth should persist with the other company verticals/initiatives (premier card, pharma expansion, etc.)

E.

Also bought some June 7.5 calls for 2.75$ which I thought was good value given minimal time value to it for the extra few months.

I snagged a few March 7.5 calls for 2.50 when the stock dipped in the last hour.

You guys were right that there is no premium on these - at 2.50$ its essentially trading for its intrinsic value over the share price no volatility or time value premium.

Prolly still quite high in terms of short interest maybe just under 10M after this past week as only about half of volume has been short volume some are likely straight buyers. Though can imagine a huge jump on the back of strong earnings given shorts will rush to cover and buyers come back in all at the same time.

Glad they are all working out! To be transparent Chillar actually introduced me to RPAY, I researched it and found it fit really well with my investment strategy of finding under covered high growth stocks at reasonable value. (Not many stocks I publicly endorse but the 3 you mentioned have been core holdings in my portfolio).

E.

Yep Strongest volume day in over the past month (likely thanks to shorts!)

Bullish signal on such a strong up day. I definitely think we have bottomed/reached strong support in the low 8's should help provide a base for our next leg up. One month to go until earnings

E.

No problem! glad this one has worked out well (and hope it continues its trajectory... but agree its been quite a run hopefully will "cool off" a bit though its got lots of momentum and has attracted many big players).

Now if PAYS could take back off with the earnings next month and RPAY continues its nice little run we are all good.

E.

no news just finally reached a support and ridiculously oversold territory... small buying and short covering acted as a catalyst for more short covering and given the low float and high short ratio this can cause big movements! And even BIGGER movements expected when earnings blow it out of the park...

Why Q4 Should Impress:

The shorts have unfortunately taken hold of the stock - I don't see too much more downside to it... and if I was a betting man I think Q4 will be impressive and that momentum will carry through to 2020.

Some things to note from the Q3-2019 conference call:

- They brought on 32 new plasma centers on September 30th - meaning this extra revenue will count for the entire Q4.
- They also signed up four new programs on the pharma side in Q3
- They also launched a pilot of the premier card.
- Q4 is seasonally their strongest Quarter


Time to take advantage of this gift of a share price...

E.

Hey guys,

Just a heads up not too concerned about PAYS this is a long term play. I am not too concerned about short term movements. I will be the first one to agree that the stock may have pre maturely shot up over the past year when it went towards 18$ though I do think it is justified given the long term growth prospects. I think people may be pleasantly surprised as we see the 2019YE earnings. The company is currently in a black out period and can’t be sending out constant PR before they actually report - they are being wise about not guiding too early like last year to make sure it’s as accurate as possible. As such shorts are taking advantage of this (about 10M shares in short which is ALOT!) on any good news this will sky rocket as shorts rush to cover. Take this as an opportunity you will not get a chance to get an opportunity to buy it this low for too much longer.

M

Pretty sure that whole bell ringing thing was « fake news » to begin with. Regardless, great buying opportunity down here especially before they report YE results/Q4.

Yea I like the new logo - more suitable. The website still in construction though it appears already better.

FYI - here's my view on PAYS - left it on Stocktwits.

$PAYS coming up on a decent support level - could be a good entry point to catch the upswing. Short interest is very high, good news will likely spark a big rally as they cover - especially with the low float (which is likely with Q4 - being naturally their strongest quarter plus we had news in Q3 that a bunch of new centers and programs were added which will bolster earnings). CoronaVirus effect on this stock is overblown - has NIL effect as all their customers are in the US and very little cases have been uncovered (just a market overaction). Strong growth will persist as they ramp up and launch their "premier card" - expected to bring in much more revenue with a very low customer acquisition cost. - strong operating leverage story here as cost structure remains relatively stable but top-line takes off.

Although I agree with that, I think that they will wait a little bit more this time before releasing guidance. IMO it was done too early last year.

1-I think they will wait to have more certainty and more time pass by in 2020 to make sure there aren’t any surprises or have to restate.

2- Last year was easier to predict because of a larger amount of « recurring » plasma revenue while their pharma revenue and other programs have now started to grow - these are at times harder to predict.

But who knows they may surprise us and announce something even something around the premier card could be possible...

E.

They cut it before the release but then increased it from 14$ to 20$ after the release:

https://biotuesdays.com/2020/01/10/canaccord-ups-profound-medical-pt-to-20-from-14/

Janey - PROF just Pre announced their 2019 earnings as well as a new multi centre commercial agreement. I’m hoping PAYS does something similar- we need some good news so that the shorts all cover (PAYS/3Pea has pre announced in the past so it’s possible... it’s worth emailing their IR and saying it would be useful as an update).

I have access to most analyst reports - haven't seen this one come out yet. Will post the executive summary when/if it comes up. Last one up was Raymond James in mid-December posting it as their top pick for the year 2020 (and a 35$ CAD target)

Im not sure about that - they had 1.2-1.3M of sales that were delayed in Q3 and were likely to be reported in Q4 (we will see but it’s highly likely) than if they dont sell another system at all in that Q they still have close to 200k from recurring parts and services from systems already installed. So realistically they could hit about 1.4-1.5M reasonably and if they sell another system in Q4 add another 500k and you are close to 2M. But we will see these things always take more time and longer than expected to ramp up so don’t be surprised about delays. Though I think 2020 should start showing more traction.

E.

Steve - I refer you to p.7 of PAYS investor Deck:

https://www.paysign.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Paysign-Inc-Investor-Presentation-December-2019.pdf

I'm really not sure where that short got his info (likely from 2015 like I said in an old post) but the company does not depend at all on "break fees" - the majority of the Company's revenues are from plasma centers (break fees don't apply for this type of revenue). Break fees only applied for old incentive programs where revenues where reported as a bulk amount at the end of the program. For plasma (which represents over 70% of revenue) - revenue comes from client set up/software/consulting fees (when they initially set up a new center/client) than on an ongoing basis they receive: management/admin fees, transaction fees and interchange fees. This model is similar for other non-plasma revenue though at times can be slightly bulkier as these "programs" do not continue indefinitely like plasma centers, occasionally certain incentive programs only last a year.

The shorts will be forced to cover upon any good news update there will be a drastic short covering rally given the low float and high short ratio.

Hope this helps.

E.

Analyst gives PROF Best Pick Status

https://www.cantechletter.com/2019/12/profound-medical-will-have-a-transformative-2020-says-raymond-james/

For those who haven't listened to it, see below for Webcast link from Today's presentation:


https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/Page/2164/32375

Guys for those struggling on why this is down see below my view.

Some Short Hedge Fund "Aurelius Value" shorted massive amounts of shares awhile back and wrote up a piece on PAYS essentially stretching old facts and spinning it to try to make his point of view.

For those wanting my point of view and debunking his article see my commentary:


I know the company very well and have met the execs numerous times. This short story pulled up old news on the company which is over and dealt with/purposely stretched to make it seem as though his story is true - he is completely spinning facts.

1)I remain bullish especially at this price they have a great team put together filled with high profile execs that have "done this before" ie. see Dan Henry (he would not get involved with a fraud). The thing about the employee and his accounting firm was put to bed many years ago and the company has been gradually "upgrading" its accounting firms to make sure its adequate for the business. I have no concern about the accounting - them saying the firm they are using has had another company that mislead investors does not mean anything, everyone can have one bad client - correlation does not imply causation.


2)His thing about breakage fees making up most of their revenue is COMPLETELY false (the incident he was referring to was an anomaly 5 years ago that had an artificially high quarter due to the end of a card program and skewed earnings (this was not misleading just the way accounting was back then). Also by way of background there won't be anymore of those incidents a) because they now apply the new IFRS rules (came in play over the last year) that you report earnings of the program over time and not at the end and b) because they are consistently growing their plasma share (now with 35%+ market share) and growing their pharma business with REAL earnings - transaction fees, interchange fees, set up fees, admin fees etc... (just refer to their fillings or their recent investor deck to see where revenue comes from). This guy tried really hard to stretch his facts to play to his advantage. Strong margin growth and revenue growth, solid balance sheet,massive upside with re-loadable card, load up and be thankful for this gift.

3) His thing about management selling shares a) is mostly them selling their stock grants (ie. acting as a bonus) b) the management team owns nearly 50% of the company - do I blame them for taking a bit of money? No. (they have not sold shares in 10 years and its not like they are dumping hand over fist - a big portion of it is exercising options/grants, or selling shares to cover taxes relating to that (read fine print of many of those fillings) etc.


Lastly go back and have a look at the past quarterly results. 1) This re-loadable card will be a significant multiplier of earnings with hardly any customer acquisition costs. 2) They just onboarded a massive amount of plasma centers last month - these will only scale in volume. 3) large growth potential on the pharma side (just getting started) 4) Immense operating leverage as revenues scale operating costs are not expected to increase as much and much more will flow down to increase EBITDA margins. The value down here is getting quite attractive for such a high growth stock with a solid balance sheet and strong margins.

Hope this helps clear some of the facts.

Great earnings and increased Guidance!

Repay Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: RPAY) (“REPAY” or the “Company”), a leading provider of vertically-integrated payment solutions, today reported financial results for its third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2019.

“We are proud of our third quarter results, which included positive contributions from our TriSource acquisition, resulting in year-over-year growth in card payment volume and gross profit of 40% and 39%, respectively,” said John Morris, CEO of REPAY. “We are also thrilled to have recently entered the B2B payments space with the previously-announced acquisition of APS Payments.”

Three Months Ended September 30, 2019 Highlights

Card payment volume was $2.6 billion, an increase of 40% over the third quarter of 2018
Total revenue on a combined basis1 was $41.1 million, an increase of 27% over the third quarter of 2018
Gross profit was $19.4 million, an increase of 39% over the third quarter of 2018
Pro forma net loss1 was ($41.4) million, as compared to net income of $3.7 million in the third quarter 2018
Adjusted EBITDA was $11.9 million, an increase of 29% over the third quarter of 2018
Adjusted Net Income was $10.4 million, an increase of 49% over the third quarter of 2018
Adjusted Net Income per share was $0.18
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019 Highlights

Card payment volume was $7.3 billion, an increase of 33% over the first three quarters of 2018
Total revenue on a combined basis was $116.5 million, an increase of 21% over the first three quarters of 2018
Gross profit was $54.4 million, an increase of 34% over the first three quarters of 2018
Pro forma net loss was ($32.4) million, as compared to net income of $8.4 million over the first three quarters of 2018
Adjusted EBITDA was $33.7 million, an increase of 24% over the first three quarters of 2018
Adjusted Net Income was $27.1 million, an increase of 31% over the first three quarters of 2018
Adjusted Net Income per share was $0.47




2019 Outlook

The addition of APS Payments is expected to contribute the following to the remainder of 2019:

$500 million in card payment volume
$3.5 million in total revenue
$2.8 million in gross profit
$1.5 million in Adjusted EBITDA
REPAY now expects the below financial results for full year 2019, which reflects expected contributions from APS Payments. The difference between the Previous Guidance and the Updated Guidance is solely related to the contributions from APS.





Full Year 2019 Outlook





Previous Guidance / Updated Guidance

Card Payment Volume

$9.6 - 9.75 billion / $10.1 – 10.25 billion

Total Revenue

$157.0 - 162.0 million / $160.5 – 165.5 million

Gross Profit

$74.0 - 76.0 million / $76.8 – 78.8 million

Adjusted EBITDA


$45.3 - 46.8 million / $46.8 – 48.3 million

You may have an opportunity to pick some up at a cheaper price - Q3 was weak based on delays from system installations (they are conservative with revenue recognition so only when a system is fully set up and operating can they report it. Though I’m glad to see their recurring revenue is starting to climb as the more systems in the field the more they will have a consistent revenue stream without the « bulkier » equipment sales. I like the long term prospects but this stuff takes time and patients is key.

Glad to see PAYS is now being rewarded for a great earnings report. I am quite happy with the margin improvement and believe great things are to come. As for RPAY seems like a short term opportunity they did a recent acquisition and have a track record of being serial acquirers in the space with consistent growth (at an attractive valuation!).

Best of luck!

E.

Hard to predict - obviously worked out well for PAYS/TPNL but typically is a little bit rough when stocks initially do a RS and uplist and might present short term opportunity.

I still believe in the Company but it's by no means a journey that will go straight up to the right without some bumps along the way. I think its the right move in the long term, it will attract better quality investors on the NASDAQ/at the RS price most institutions will be able to buy it and there will be improved liquidity. If I was a betting man I'd say they may raise another 10-20M in the US over the next year once they get to the NASDAQ to pad their pockets for an aggressive US market expansion. The story will take time to develop but probably reasonable value at current prices (or lower) if you are comfortable taking some risk (the FDA approval definitely helps de-risk this now its just sales execution that is needed and it is one of the better technologies in the field so adoption should be good).

E.

I agree,

CEO selling is not seen as a positive thing. That being said given how much the current CEO owns i'm not too concerned (and am surprised this is his first sale since I can remember).

The sale represented ~2% of his total position which is minimal given he still owns close to 19% of the company. He just got assigned stock grants as well so net net his position is higher in the company. Who knows maybe he bought a new house or something? Quite reasonable with your net worth is tied so such to one company. I'm not concerned by one sale but would be more concerned if I see many of them.

New article On seeking alpha covering PaySign

PaySign Had A Scare, And We Took Advantage
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4292649

Im with you! Quiet and undercovered, there’s pretty good value here for a payment processor with reasonable growth prospects and strong margins.

Have some shares and some warrants for some extra torque.

E.

No Problem WOW - came faster than I expected.
There was one big seller keeping the price down (and who was been for the past year) it appears they are getting close to finished and that it will be able to start increasing more over the short term. Could be an easy buyout candidate now that the FDA hurdle is de-risked (at least sales will start increasing now that the US is opened up and this is one of their largest potential markets).

Nice few days as well with PAYS re-establishing our uptrend and filling the gap - especially nice when the markets have been taking such a hit in the past little while.

E.

Yes they did re-iterated previous guidance of 38-40M in revenue and 10-12M adj. EBITDA. However said this does not include the new Paysign Premier Card which is launching end of August/Early Sept.

Agreed - it’s still a speculative stock with low liquidity so definitely comes with some risks and volatility as it may take quite awhile to play out. I think it’s a reasonable risk reward given it’s quite off the radar and lots of companies typically get taken out once the FDA approves their equipment as it’s been derisked / the US Has the highest potential sales growth for their solution.

Pays continues to be my largest position by far and has been quite proven out - though I like to sprinkle around some cash In other plays that might become the next multi baggers. Good recovery day for Pays as buying volume returns. I’m sure many ppl are anxiously waiting for earnings.

Have a good weekend,

E.

Thanks Mr. D.

In terms of these pink sheet US equivalence to Canadian listed stocks, its though as when it comes to smaller Canadian companies that are simply traded on US pink sheets there tends to be lower volume and wide spreads (its easier when they up-list to a proper US exchange). That being said its still possible to get in, you just have to always use limit orders and also watch the Canadian equivalent stock (and use the exchange rate to see if its good relative value). They should typically trade in tandem to avoid arbitrage though I have occasionally seen opportunities where you can get in at a discount due to low liquidity/lack of awareness around the US equivalent stock.

The two ones I like right now are PRFMF (profound - should have FDA approval in the US over the next 6-9 months and will revolutionize the way prostate cancer is treated - ie. can be treated within an hour) and Medexus (which is undervalued because no one knows about it - one of the fastest growing specialty pediatric drug companies).

E.

The Shelf Prospectus is not an offering per se its simply PAYS registering the "right" to sell up to USD 150M in securities at some point in the future (ie. I think its opportunistic and to the extent they are looking at some acquisitions, they can ponce on them when the time is right).

TBH I would do the same thing if I was on Paysign's management Team - Why not raise capital now that the company has gone from sub 100M to nearly 1B$ in such a short period of time? The fact is they have built a very reputable board of individuals with experience in this space and they will do what they can to maximize shareholder value (and implicitly mgmt value as they have so much skin in the game).

The fall was simply more dramatic than it had to be given the BTIG downgrade - though hard to trust analysts as lots of them like to play games to try to get into stocks they like.

Best of luck - appears to be strong hands buying at the bottom.

E.

Same 10$ strike March 2020 decent premium specially at todays low

BTIG Raises Price Target to 12$. Commentary below.

BTIG reiterating Buy recommendation on Paysign, Inc. (PAYS) – formerly known as 3PEA International – while raising our price target to $12 (from $9.50) based on 19x the company’s FY21E EBITDA of $32.2mm. While shares of PAYS have appreciated by more than 186% since the beginning of the year, we believe the company’s valuation does not fully reflect the upside potential associated with its existing and planned business lines: plasma donation prepaid debit cards, pharmaceutical copay cards, and Paysign Premier debit cards linked to demand deposit accounts, which are its answer to regulatory changes impacting issuers of general purpose reloadable (GPR) debit cards.
We believe PAYS’ soon-to-be-launched Paysign Premier accounts could become a significant contributor to the company’s growth starting in 2020. Management intends to roll out the account gradually beginning in late 2Q19 or early 3Q19 to a portion of the company’s 2.5mm+ plasma donation prepaid cardholders.