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There was no news, no rhyme or reason. I attribute it to some fat fingering on a trade and added too many zeros that triggered a frenzy.
Their market cap is still higher, but it’s a lot closer now than it has been.
That’s not correct. Anyone can short through IB or other offshore brokers. The fact is that it is absolutely minimal. There is no 50-100M short. Simply put.
There will be no 50-100M share squeeze because it doesn’t exist.
It will get well beyond $1 with Vyvanse approval alone. Would be great to be among the first to get approved for generic oxy (awaiting FDA approval). Launching generic perc & Norco that is about a $1B market with just those 2. Plus, we don’t have insights yet into R&D near-term pipeline, but we do know focus is on $1B+ drugs that have less competition or coming off patent.
Read the original post one more time.
It’s generic + generic. It’s not purely generic or even the market up for grabs unless all other manufacturers bail and we get the API. It is an inflated figure, but gives you the overall market size so you can get a feel for potential market penetration.
I’d expect it to get cut in half, or more, once API normalizes within a year.
Many were yanked.
I think Concerta is actually a bigger opportunity than Vyvanse. Smaller market, but only 3 competitors.
Possible, but not without execution of a really solid pipeline. R&D holds some value, but full approval add much higher value. I’d like to see some positive BE studies for Concerta and beyond CNS to get this needle moved permanently.
Who cares? If there is no selling it’s just paper gains/losses.
Who is bringing reality to the party?
What you are referring to is already off the books as of the most recent quarter. What remains in the financials is significant impact from Nasrat’s ownership that acts as a large anchor.
Per 10-Q:
- 2 customers account for 68% of rev.
- 5 customers account for 76% of rev (typo with year in 10-Q as still states 2023).
A/R is directionally the same, but may be a different mix based on terms, timing, etc.
One customer alone is about half of our business 44% and the next largest at 24%. The more diverse we get in product will likely lead to greater diversification from financial health standpoint as well.
*Generic opioid
Agreed. It’s just a couple months of that’s the case, but would love to finally see a larger generic launch that should have many years ago.
All depends on whether we can get API that others can’t. I believe this is why the FDA needs an extra month to review. I think it’s a new API source.
Vyvanse brand vs generic pricing. The sooner Elite can get approval and launch, the higher pricing they’ll be able to capture as the entire pricing market heads south with increased competition. Margins will be really nice, but decrease as API normalizes across the supply chain.
Not a perfect tool, but directional, using GoodRx for a few markets I see brand Vyvanse priced at $420 for 30mg and 30-day supply. I see a generic range of $70-280 for the same dosage and capsule count depending on pharmacy CVS, Target Sam’s, Costco, etc.
Would be nice to see an approval prior to end of the calendar year.
Probably more like mid to late Nov. codeine with APAP is next, which will likely be mid to late Oct. Would be awesome to see earlier.
I’d love to see Perc launched right before Vyvanse approval.
I agree. I think we’ll see some nice stair steps up in share price as sales expand with each earnings release, especially if Vyvanse is approved. Would be nice to get it launched in Dec and have a full Q of Vyvanse sales for Q4.
Perc and Norco launches are right around the corner too.
Since when is down 1% is tanking?
Run ups need a healthy retraction and breather before moving further north. The company has so much going for it over the next 6-12 months.
Dude, it’s all plain as day in the 10-Q.
Look at notes 4 & 14 related to Mikah co-development profit split. The difference between quarters is about $750K that Elite owes Mikah for Q1’s profit split.
Compare the $750K to the manufacturing fees line in the P&L. We don’t have specifics for Adderall, but we know the bulk of our rev is from Adderall.
$18.5M vs $750K. Tell me which is bigger. You can do that math.
The rest is just accounting - taking out the COGS, SG&A, R&D, interest, etc.
You still don’t get it. We get more profit from manufacturing the drug than the profit split. Would it be nice to have? Yes.
Griping about it does nothing. We’re still in a somewhat similar position as Sungen, but now Nasrst can see all the cards.
He owns half of the profit split, not half of Adderall the majority of the profit to Elite is from the mfg, which he doesn’t touch. Hopefully Elite will get that full out ownership of Adderall soon.
I think you mean operating margin. They might get some volume discounts for COGS API/materials, but not expecting that to be significant. Unless you’re saying our labor costs will decrease as we pump out more volume. I think you mean leveraging overhead costs as those grow minimally as revenue is likely to grow significantly.
PE is historical looking. For high growth companies a forward multiple is more likely applicable with expected quarterly growth.
I am guessing some smaller privately owned investment firms are buying in. Going to be interesting to see who that might be. Big dogs won’t touch it, but that’s ok for now.
If we get Concerta approved that would be huge too. Very few players as several were yanked. Because of this Concerta would be at least half the incremental value add of Vyvanse. We don’t know how many other Oxy players are in the pending status either. That could be a huge win too, well beyond $0.10 increase in SP.
That is the definition of a larger shareholder, not an insider. An insider is someone such as an employee or director privy to non-public information. Trading on that non-public info is what will get you busted with the SEC.
You think they would PR facility approval? Would be nice.
I’d expect release after close on Thursday Nov 14th with call morning of 15th.
They have generic with branded drugs. I think they also dive into more complex specialty drugs too. Not a comparative company as they would have higher margins.
I figured you were looking at different industries. Not one of those are generic drug manufacturers. They are primarily service providers or medical device and I wouldn’t consider them comparable.
I haven’t found a decent comparison to Elite being debt free in the generic mfr space. Blazing our own trail to a certain extent.
Absolutely solid week
Who has a 34 PE as a generic mfr?
Are you thinking October for Vyvanse? Would be nice to see it earlier for sure.
It stalled around 150K. I certainly won’t be disappointed if volume keeps up. Great to see. More eyes on Elite to have share price move towards its full potential.
Lighter volume out of the gate. I’d expect a little retraction after yesterday and certainly a new base. Good times ahead.