Feb buys with SMH RSI coming back to 30 - bottom today????

SMH 32.50 calls
BRCM 30 and 32.50 calls
MXIM 40 calls
KLAC 42.50 and 45 calls

Iraq elections only 6 days away and business can move ahead - get over it already !!!!!!!

What does it really mean? Did not they "go bearish" in Aug, but that proved to be a bottom! [THE bottom so far]

Semis are leading! with mkts still down - now we just need to see mkts go plus after W2 inaug shortly after noon [right coast time]

Should see down up which should reverse by end of day
We are oversold and this news event [EBAY] is BS to the semis, just an excuse to gap prices down and pick up stock.

A move to the plus side during the day will bring in some very heavy buying - one W2 inaug is over without incident!

MACD buy signal postponed - thus still 2 to 3 days out, unless we get a major up day.

Explosive rally coming very soon - perhaps we will move BEFORE Iraq elections, then a pause - just to keep public from buying as they are conditioned to fear what may happen to disrupt the elections. It just may be different this time!

Once markets have been moved higher, shorts will be squeezed and public will be the last ones in as they are told not to buy - unitl the top. Stay with quality semis like KLAC, MXIM and BRCM and "hot" issues such as YHOO, GOOG and EBAY.

MMW - JK

See my post 3351 where I say 3 to 6 mo rally as well - based more on election cycle, time of year and fundamentals than indicators.

Callng major semi bottom for this past week - SMH vol has been very heavy since beg of yr - avg almost 30mil per day.

Expect MACD buy signal in 2 to 3 days - but lows on stocks [quality] are already in.

Iraq elections are only event on horizon and cold weather always breaks - so excuses for nervousness are waning.

Now seeing upgrades after long hiatus of analysts moves.

Semis are tunrning the corner - 2 to 4 days to MACD buy signal but bottom is already in.

KLAC should be stellar here!!!!

U got it - now for nice island reversal Wed
Note KLAC, etc. on INTC capex - big move coming!
As long as in line Q1 does not bring out the nay-sayers!

I am 100% calls - really loaded: KLAC, BRCM, MXIM

What if we get a bad INTC report already being so oversold?

A rally of course!

Now then - will AMD give us a bottom and INTC a rally?
Or is it all over for the semis. Today we find out.
Hunging lower BB looking for reason to rally/breakdown.

I still expect rally into Mar-Jun, then fears of recession as car sales continue to drop and housing softens - of course rates will be hitting new lows.

Good news will be a collapse in the price of oil in the spring.

Recession talk sooner, may prevent market break-out / fake-out that I expect to occur.

We have ended consolidation following nice up move - ready to go again - look for new highs in better stocks.

For the record, I still see a high in Mar to Jun timeframe!

GM Sorry, I am very busy these days and only come to the board when I see major turns. The continuation has taken a few days longer to confirm a bottom [to me] and this week's action seems to have done it.

Now let's just get those Iraqi elections over so business can move ahead.

I loaded up on BRCM, MXIM and KLAC this morning!

Looks like good reversal of week's selling in Nasdaq stocks - note that semi's have held relatively well.

Bottom is in !

SMH/SOX MACD's held neutral, both about to give buy signals, both crossing 20dSMA - target upper BB's.

I expect flood of cash very soon and big moves to open upper BB to permit move to higher prices.

I see strong rally into Mar/Jun timeframe [new highs on DJI a given] then we have big trouble as housing slows, car sales slump and there is recession talk.

Larry - feel free to mark my words - Happy New Year everyone!

Time to buy - 2nd test of lower BB and support at 50dSMA complete
MACD back to neutral - ready to rally to new recovery highs!!!!

GET ON BOARD

SMH/SOX lower BB held as well as 50dSMA, now look for QUICK move to take out 34.95 cross 200dSMA for good!!!!!!

NSM saves the day - could have nice reversal in semis today.
Buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity.
Still expecting volume/price rally in semis to clear 200dSMA

Well, will this kill the tech rally and send SOX down?
Let's see - just one mkt segment and big money has made a commitment to tech. So we can probably expect a move to the lower BB - or perhaps we get a pleasant surprise and the open is the bottom?????????

BAC semi downgrade not having desired effect!!!!!

Out of the blue - or contrived to force selling ar 200dSMA?

Semis are bucking the downgrade well and really did not collapse yesterday either. SOX hanging aroung 20dSMA, but needs to recover 200dSMA today or tomorrow.

Expect semis to get off the canvas before the 10 count and fight another round.

SOX test of 20dSMA complete? could be, involved break of 200dSMA which better be closed above quickly - like today or Thu at the latest to confirm breakout.

When this happens, expect explosive move followed by a deeper consolidation, but still holding well above this dip [430.15]

uBB's constraining up movement in SMH 34.80 SOX 450.80

A little more sideways action and we should continue up again as 20dSMA's rise and thus uBB's open up to permit move.

INTC should lead nicely based on its mid qtr - not that is up in down mkt.

This next up should be a short term top sometime this or next week.

Thanks

Not yet - but we are near for a mild pulback in SOX
Tagging upper BB at 450 - so perhaps sideways.
Still expect INTC to make its way higher even if we do.

You flatter me.

Yes - short term top coming - some price targets,
INTC 25, MXIM 45, BRCM 35 for various reasons

Best of both worlds - INTC has a lot of catch up to do.
Weak jobs report means money can flow into techs!!!!!!
Up DJI/SPX will really send a msg that rally will continue.

SOX hit upper BB yesterday and sold off into INTC report.
[and closed 438.71 - above 200dSMA at 437.83
Now uBB can open up a little more for today's move up.

20dSMA proved as support and should for each decline - just the inverse of the Jun/Oct sell-off pattern where it was resistance.

Jobs report keeps rates down and may put FED on hold?????

Kudlow comments that gold is showing inflation is simply wrong - gold and oil are priced in dollars and a weak dollar increases their prices - duh!!!! Sure - it's inflation for us, but not worldwide as oil prices and distilates have stayed the same for non $ denominted economies!!!!!

I can only believe it is due to co comments a week or so ago. Not up to analyst expectations, but very good from co's point of view. When this one moves, it moves big and tomorrow may be the day.

It's time for semi's to regain their leadership role which means a lot of catching up, much less moving to the forefront. The larger caps will be the better plays as big money has to buy them to get any size.

Glad to hear form you - yes - one piece is in and now for employment report.

We are not in a trading market anymore - a major breakout is under way and will surprise everyone once the sideline money capitulates and buys in. DJI could easily hit a new high!

LLTC almost same price as MXIM - MXIM will move away and move fast.

I hold BRCM, INTC, MXIM, XLNX and KLAC calls for DEC and JAN.
Largest position is in INTC where I scooped all the DEC 25's I could get at the bid at 10 cents yesterday. I could be in the money tomorrow with multiple returns in 2 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Have already made a tidy sum on the long side while others seem to be going short a couple of days ago -ooooopppps!

Possible best catch up play - MXIM
I have the 45's and have been buying 40's all morning.

How can you risk what may happen with the SOX and INTC
A break above SOX 200dSMA will be explosive.

INTC might just say something positive - they have already said next year looks good.

When money moves out of housing and oil stocks - where will it go? Techs !!!!!

SOX - DHH ready to assault 200dSMA for real !!!!!
Perfect bounce off of 20dSMA - semi news getting better.
INTC to be final catalyst???????
AMD gaining on INTC not hurting INTC today

If semi's begin to take their leadership role - they have to move A LOT !!!!!!

Targets - JAN HIGHS !!!!!!!

Prior low on the 8th or 9th - BRCM hitting highs daily!!!!

We should not take out that prior low, which a tag of the channel bottom line would do, so expect I expect a rapid bounce well shy of the channel line.

Sideways consolidation is over - IMHO - SOX has held 20dSMA,
SMH broke its by a small amount.
SOX - upper BB above 200dSMA permitting move into this area.
INTC mid qtr report likely to be the catalyst.
Pessimism built into INTC having fallen from 25 to 23 in spite of co saying it saw very good next year. Even if Q4 off, can 'they' [anal-ists] look across the valley??????

Explosive rally under way - sorry you shorts!!!!
Just as on downside collapse, systems have to adjust to a breakout move as opposed to trading range parameters.

Big money to be made in techs as they have a lot of catching up and then leading to do.

A lot of money will chase the good names and they will well-outperform.

Question - will AMAT kill the party tonight or add more fuel?

Still advancing - still neutral - do not sell too soon

I believe 32.56 a DHH versus gap down high of 32.55 Wed
Cover those shorts! Could be some mutual funding tech buying near the close.

This is no rally yet despite SPX DJI DJT etc.

KLAC - slowdown smodown - buying back stock, has backlog to work off and deferred revenue.

DJ KLA-Tencor: System Shipment Backlog $880M At Sept 30 >KLAC

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) said its backlog for unshipped system orders totaled roughly $880 million as of Sept. 30, compared with $554 million at the same time in 2003.

The San Jose chip-equipment maker said it expects to ship the majority of its backlog over the next six to nine months.

The company also said it has $539 million of deferred revenue related to delivered products that are awaiting written acceptance from customers.

KLA-Tencor also said in its first-quarter report to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it repurchased roughly 2 million of its shares for $78.4 million during the quarter. In the year-ago period, the company repurchased 32,000 shares for $1.7 million, it said.

-By Paulette Chu, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1355; paulette.chu@dowjones.com

SOX is doing fine - held 20d SMA [so did SMH]
16 day [longest in a year at least] run above 20d and counting - building to break-out. This keeps semi neutral!

Yes - semi's will lead - just needs some real volume and a clear breakout to crush the shorts.

Yesterday's crack has no follow through and we have already recovered back into the first half hour of Wed action.

Clearly DELL is a key player [no HPQ] and should have nothing but good things to say. MU said DRAM to tighten in 2005 - so where's the slowdown - not in the market leaders.

It's the weak players that have been turning the analysts to caution on semis.

Nice to see tech buying at end of day instead of the usual selling. Mutual fund tech outflows have ended and endflows are begining.

CSCO and semi-equip 'cautious rating' will probably send SMH, etc. to 20d support after many days in upper half of BB range.

Again we will see the reaction - protracted sell-off or buying on dips!!!!!!!

Friday gap filled - now ready to move.
Another short consolidation is over.

All the negativity expressed here lately shows why we will move up not down.

Too many jumping to top conclusions while we are clearly neutral!!!

FED should go on a pause now to wait for growth to rebound from 3rd qtr slump.

Will FED statement be the catalyst to hit this thing upstairs?