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Good to see you TR. What do you make out of the PPS drop? Trying to figure it out, basically trading at cash value which is silly.
I am expecting 750-800k as well, and CEO already said that they are building on Q2's fundamentals. They already know how much they made, quarter ended 9/30. Not sure what is going on with the Bear selloff, but CEO also said no material business changes in the last two months. So this selloff of 25% between EOB Friday and now appears to be something else. Not sure if this is a hedge leaving, small cap pressure that is felt across the market or what.
I do however believe that Q3 earnings in five weeks is going to have a great impact on the current PPS, and also expect FDA news on KRN5500 and a partnership announcement all before end of year. Dara at these prices is a steal, wish I was sitting on more dry powder.
I'm not sure what DD you did on this stock before you bought it, but your expectations on revenue are off. Dara burns through about 2 million per quarter, and was not expected to be profitable on a quarterly basis until 2016. Projected revenue for 2015 is only 5 million, which still has them backwards three million on the year. All of this is public knowledge. Why do you think the stock isn't trading at 6.00? Risk.
This "Jason" person has a BS in Biochemistry, a BA in Chemistry with a minor in math, an MBA in Finance all from Virginia Tech, and is a Level 3 CFA. He is the biotech analyst for Zacks, and questioning his expertise makes you sound ridiculous.
And announcing that you are flipping Dara for another stock makes you look like a pumper. I hope you did more DD on that stock then you did on this one.
Nov 12/13th will be Q3 earnings. So we are looking at holding for about five weeks. And I think with Jason just speaking with the CEO, we know he is intimately aware of this sell volume. I think we can expect the company to say something soon to address investors.
Jason Napodano (CFA at Zacks) just got of the phone with Dara CEO:
Just got off the phone with $DARA CEO. "No material changes to the business over past 2 months. Fundamental improvements from Q2 continue" I pushed $DARA CEO for information on why stock was selling off. "No material news and Q3 on track". I also pushed him to make insiders BUY! $DARA management did participate in the last round of financing (June 2014). I think some insiders Buying would instill some new confidence.
So according to Dara, this sell off has absolutely nothing to do with the companies business strategy, news, or changes is trajectory. Hold until earnings.
Beware of short interest from a new MM. If one of them stepped in and sold a short block at Market on Friday, they just covered for about .90 cents, making them about 25 grand. Not sure that this is the case, but it might be.
I would expect executive leadership to be meeting about this right now. Their silence for a prolonged period makes me suspicious that significant news is coming. They are nearing four weeks of no IR, which is inconsistent with what they had done the previous three months. This could be deliberate tree shaking prior to a buyout. In fact, that's my bet. It's the only way it makes sense to sell these large blocks at market. You blow through stops and take peoples shares for .25 cents on the dollar of a buyout.
Really strange trade at the end of hours. I doubt that this is news based, this feels different. Feels like a malicious attempt at dragging the stock under a dollar for some reason. The fact that this order was market four minutes before close on a Friday makes a BS MM move in my mind. I would bet we see 1.07 Monday.
FYI I'm with the family on vacation boys, haven't given this one much thought. It isn't Nov 12th yet, so I'm only loosely monitoring. Rambo knows me, all this ping pong from 1.02 to 1.08 is noise and I'm not selling. As they said in "V for Vendetta": remember remember the 12th of November.
Wants to go higher, but same old problem. No Volume. As soon as there is news of any kind such as earnings, KRN update, FDA meeting, this will likely cause the ignition we are looking for.
Stoxline bumped the Dara rating this morning: "Stoxline rating system posted a STRONG BUY today, upgraded from lower rating. This stock seems to be very strong for long buyers. If you bought, continue to hold stock until SELL signal. You are relatively safe as long as the SELL warning is not issued."
Management has shown that they rarely go longer than three weeks without news, and its been three weeks around Wednesday. Also first day of new quarter, so fee for doing a press release would go into next quarter. I would say some kind of news by end of week is very likely.
Another day on the bottom of the aquarium with the fish. Finding Nemo part 2. Atleast it isn't .95 I suppose.
Lowest volume day this stock as seen by 25% in the last four months. I wonder what it all means.
Hah, Ak is fired up today. I have to agree that the PPS is lunacy. Have to hope we see some recovery soon based on news or earnings. Hopefully this is near the bottom.
I just sent an email in to IR (Jim) as well, that included Jasons quote this morning. They need to confront this assault on their share price aggressively. The primary responsibility of Daras executive team is preserve the shareholder value of the company. This is their fiduciary responsibility as C level executives.
15k shares in the first hour...I can't believe how slim the volume is on Dara these days.
This is why I don't use Social Media...what starts as an innocent evening with Glenlevit winds up getting me kicked of my wifes friends Facebook pages. I like your method better, a couple of doubles and you want to give the MM's a stroke. I can respect that.
Rambo did Zacks release a new Dara report? Looked like they were advertising a new three month projection that was available for free download but it was hitting me with all this "Sign up" stuff to get it. Looks like it includes projections going into October.
Just watched a 50k buy at 1.05 get placed. These guys are shorting it down, and then accumulating.
That's really insightful TR, I hadn't considered an end of quarter play. That actually makes sense. One of the challenges I've had lately is trying to ascertain where the volume is coming from, and what the strategy in play is. Trading has been unusual. A mix of shorts and MM end of quarter gonzos makes more sense.
That's why it takes a team of us.
Remember that price suppression on this kind of volume is garbage. This is just a lack of buy volume causing the short/MM predators to jump on the opportunity. Likely will see it bump in the last 15 minutes of trading, may see some gonzo's right before the close. This is pure gamesmanship.
I am going to simply warn our readers that if you need your capital before November 13th, steer clear of Dara. If you can go 6-8 weeks (or even better, end of year) you will likely double to triple your investment at these prices.
This has got to be 100% short attack. I suppose they have to throw the kitchen sink at it after it popped from 1.05 to 1.18 on Friday end of business. Puts them in the weeds to cover.
It will be interesting to watch trading tomorrow. Not sure what we are seeing with the 1.05, and then a gonzo to 1.18 to 1.25. This thing must be wound up and ready to move. Corporate can't like the flirting in the basement like this.
Even Jason over at Zacks tweeted that he didn't understand the selloff after a quarter where things appear to be turning around and the future looking promising.
This is getting ridiculous. Stock is down 35% since earnings report on basically nothing.
This thing is definitely looking to head north aggressively. Hope everyone here loaded up.
Hey don't forget me! macjockey@me.com
Am I seeing 1.30 trading after hours? What the heck? Rambo, what did you do??? lol.
When I continue to see their persistent premeditated attempt to distribute completely baseless information, and the fact that they post over and over one can only determine that they are paid to do this. As these things are deliberate lies like "BKBK Company is out of cash!!!" they are clearly attempting to sway public opinion and move the stock. How many have fallen for this, and sold their stock for the Bid?
I may have just dropped a bomb over in the Yahoo forums TR. I'm starting to think that swamp over there may need to be scrutinized legally.
It definitely won't take much to get this thing moving north. Biggest current issue is that the buy interest is Dead on Arrival. If you have buy volume, there are shares out there to be had heading north. I think those that have long interest are already holding, and mostly unwillingly to further extend. We just need some news, be it earnings or partnership, FDA guidelines, etc. Unless we see an absolute buy out, I think we will get nothing until earnings, and then FDA guidelines and partnership immediately after between earnings and year end. All of that should lead to a tremendous amount of action in the next 12 weeks, with this slow trading MM garbage in the short term.
Yeah this is the problem with volume that is basically in cardiac arrest. You can throw a gonzo at 1.12 and own the price. If there was any additional volume, they could outbid the gonzo and it would get ignored. I suppose its encouraging that folks are collecting.
Yeah, its annoying. Basically no demand for the stock right now. These guys better be setting the world on fire trying to put together value proposition. It's flirting way too close with the 1.00 mark again. At this rate, November earnings are an eternity away.
Sounds good bro. Starting tomorrow, I am going to throw some misc steps out there and see if we encourage trading at all, just as a test of the waters. See if we can take matters into our own hands a bit.
Anyone know what L2 looks like? I wonder if we should start stacking some 500 share blocks in 7 cent increments to get us up near two dollars.
Morning Guys.
Hah, I should have known it was the dream team behind it.
Hope your both enjoying the weekend, I'm poolside getting ready for some football tomorrow. Toasting you and our prosperity. You guys catch that ten dollar gonzo on 25k shares?
I think that if Nov 13th comes, and we get a 800k quarter out of these guys the growth will look promising. Sounds like the magic number will be 2 million, but if you can generate half or more of that per quarter, the burn rate on cash reserves can sustain the company for quite a while. As they said, they don't forecast covering operating costs until 2016, so if they begin marching towards profitability we should see some movement. Current PPS doesn't reflect KRN, and weighs as almost all risk. Watching quarterly revenue climb should minimize the risk factor.
Thanks for the notes Rambo, was in meetings today and couldn't make it to the webcast. My opinion at this point is that we likely won't see much out of these guys between now and Nov 13th. By then, I think we get earnings, an FDA meeting and possibly a partnership right after. It could be that most of the potential partners are looking for the FDA info before making a move. Likely that the Dara team has three or four lined up and ready to take the best deal, but is awaiting FDA to finalize the roadmap. I wouldn't be surprised if that FDA meeting happens, and a deal is announced 15-30 days later.
Sound consistent with your thoughts guys?