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Sell volume has moved up significantly in the past couple of hours. Almost equal to buy volume. Two big sell trades a few moments ago. We should expect some profit taking and consolidation after a day like today. We are actually holding at levels higher than I thought we would be able to hold today, even though this stock should already be much higher.
All in all, a very healthy day for us. I just wanted to see a close at $1.10 or higher.
Quite amazing to watch actually. As soon as a block of 16,900 shares went through, the bid for 5 of the MM's dropped to $1.15 immediately. The amazing computer trading programs!
Yeh, I saw that. We have a few hours of trading left. Let's see what happens as we get closer to the end of the trading session.
I am baffled at what AUTO is doing. Been on both sides of the trade all day.
No reason to keep A and B shares after the emerging from bankruptcy. The B shares are a legacy of the Kerr McKee shares held after the IPO of Tronox. The A shares were part of the initial IPO.
After Kerr McKee dumped the B's, and the voting rights, there was no reason for them to exist any longer.
Now cleared the $1.08 hurdle. Thanks, AUTO and NITE on deck.
Not to worry. It is just getting up to altitude to where it will soon be detected.
Interesting, AUTO is now on a sell at $1.08.
If we could close near the $1.10 mark today on both the A and B shares, with huge volume, it would sure set a nice floor at about a buck.
Everett, $4.50 is certainly a wonderful profit, but I truly think this thing has the potential to go much higher for those willing to hang on.
However, we do at least need to cover our initial investment.
The rest is gravy.
We all still need to be cautious and not get overly giddy at this stage. But it sure does look promising now.
He, he, I remember all that. But, life is all about balance. The longer the drought, the more it rains once the rain does finally come.
Hopefully, we can wash out some of the gamers and move this up quickly now.
The price movement and volume will now alert other investors to the opportunity and really get this stock moving now.
Today just might put us on the radar screen.
Let's see how the rest of the day goes!
Exactly, Newtech. This board is such a pleasure to be on. A small group of committed investors and no BS all day long.
Back now, had to take the dog for a walk. He was just too excited about hitting a buck.
I really want to understand the strategy behind AUTO and other MM's.
This is like a chess game and I still have not been able for the life of me figure out what these guys are doing!
Newtech, home from work yet? Would like your analysis of the day.
This is just amazing. The bond price was under $25 a year ago, and now heading to $120.
We are setting up for the perfect storm:
1) Bond price heading towards the sky
2) Shares being tightly held by all who know the real value of this Company.
3) Naked shorting being the only way to get your hands on shares before the storm clouds burst. (thanks to Everett for this theory)
4) Market conditions so tight with TiO2 prices moving up and higher than what we have seen the the late 1980's!
5) Tronox is a certain future acquisition target.
6) Others?
I think your first theory is brilliant! This could be exactly what is going on! Otherwise, given what we all know about this stock and this company, there is just too much risk to be naked shorting at this stage. Your theory could make it all make sense!
Thanks for this.
This is the part that scares me. Why so much naked shorting?
Have you selected the color our your new yacht yet?
It's obvious we all hold mucho shares and none of us plan to release them any time soon. I am so happy I averaged down to pennies on the share. The upside leverage is just too huge. Remember, the journey is half the fun, even though we are all pretty confident in our destination!
We all should be nervous. But really, I don't think any substantial news will be out until June to August timeframe. Tronox has ALWAYS been tight-lipped, even before bankruptcy. There is only a small circle of people who really know what is going on. My concern is all the lawyers who see some of the details of what truly is to come, good or bad. But shame on me, they are always a group swimming in the Sea of Integrity.
And, let us not forget about the share ownership represented by those on the Equity Committee, and that is substantial also.
There just seems to be enough float out there for these games to continue.
The shares being held tightly are significant, including ours.
We will have our day! Actually, I am pleased to see us near 90 cents. I looked like an idiot when I was buying at $2 per share on the way down. But I feel better now after I bought many additional hundreds of thousands of shares at 2 and 3 cents per share. Kinda made the pain go away, but I always knew where this would go in the longer term. And, we haven't even started the fun ride (UP) yet.
Just have to keep the timeframe in perspective.
We will all either end up looking like a bunch of investor genius' making alot of money, or left holding a bunch of useless shares, which I think is highly improbable. Let's stick with the original plan. Option 1, hold and look like a genius!
Bingo. That's the scary part. Where are all these shares coming from? Most of those holding shares just won't let them go easily, like our good friend "purple hands."
I'm sure not letting mine go anytime soon. Started buying over 2 years ago!
We have all probably been trading for a very long time. But seriously, have you ever seen anything like the trades on this stock to this extent any time in your trading history?
Definitely naked shorting today. Interesting volume as well.
It will be fun to watch this balloon pop in the coming weeks!
There we go. A nice slap on the B's with only a couple hundred shares. The MM's are still out there, just like cockroaches. Hard to get rid of them.
Keep holding on. Soon they will turn from purple to gold. Funny how that can happen!
Oh, and I forgot to mention, the global titanium dioxide markets are transitioning getting tighter by the day. Prices are moving up quickly. Buyers are now more concerned about supply and lesser about price. Global inventories are exhausted. Good for Tronox revenue and margin!
Maybe not today, but within the next two weeks. The chart looks great. The bond price is amazing and just keeps moving up. And, the spread and volatility of the A and B shares is coming into line. Still some slapping and MM games, but they will soon be diluted as volume picks up.
Moving slow and easy, but this stock has only one direction to go, up, and up significantly!
Yes, they went non-concent, however, they have a period of time to contribute cash to the expansion following the official commissioning of the expansion project. I think the time period is 3 months after official commissioning.
Are you aware of the timeframe after commissioning? I am not sure about the 3 months.
Thanks.
Thanks, newtech.
Your comments about Asia, China and India are all correct. Just to provide you with some additional detail, let me add the following:
The global TiO2 demand is approximately 5 million metric tonnes (mt) per year.
To give you an idea where the demand is:
North America: 1,200,000mt
Latin America: 350,000mt
Asia Pacific: 1,800,000mt
Europe: 1,250,000mt
Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe: 400,000mt
However, of the 1.8 million tonnes of demand in Asia Pacific, half of this is consumed in China and the other 50% in the rest of Asia Pacific / Oceania. So China is huge and the demand is growing the fastest.
Demand in India is still relatively small, less than 150,000mt today, but growing quickly. So, the emerging markets are where all the growth will be in the coming years. So what's new!
The interesting thing about China is that there are no global TiO2 producers with any capacity in China. The global players, like Tronox, import product into China. DuPont is closest with a plant in Taiwan and then ISK in Japan and Singapore.
Total TiO2 imports into China are only about 250,000 to 300,000mt per year. All the rest is supplied by small local producers in China. DuPont has been wanting to build a plant in China for years, however, to date they have failed to do so.
But Tronox, post-bankruptcy, will have a great global position, especially in Asia. Their Kwinana plant is a low-cost production facility, and currently undergoing an expansion of 40,000mt which will take their capacity to about 160,000mt per year. This would give them about 6% or the regional Asia Pacific supply position.
Ishihara, DuPont, Tioxide, Cristal, and a number of other small players have capacity in Asia as well, but none of them have capacity yet in China.
In North America, Tronox has shut down their high cost Savannah Plant, leaving only the low-cost Hamilton plant in operation. This is a big plant, making 230,000mt per year giving Tronox almost a 20% capacity position in North America with a great cost position! DuPont is the big player here with almost 50% of the capacity in North America and the lowest cost position in the industry.
In Europe, the Tronox Botlek plant only produces about 90,000mt per year, however, this still gives them a 6% to 7% capacity position in Western Europe. They have walked away from the high cost Uerdingen plant in Germany.
So, after all of the shutdown of high costs plants around the world last year, the industry is very tight on supply. This supply tightness and good TiO2 pricing could therefore last for quite some time..........good for Tronox share price.
DuPont will still be number 1 in the world with about 22% or 23% of the global production capacity. Cristal should be the number 2 player with about 14% or 15% global capacity share. Tioxide may now become the No.3 player with about 10% of the global capacity. Then, a close tie for No.4 will be between Tronox and Kronos, at about 8% or 9% capacity share.
But, it is not how big you are, it is about how profitable you are. And, with Tronox cleaning up all their cost structure, getting rid of environmental liabilities and high cost operations, and expanding capacity in Asia where it really counts, they will have a nice looking balance sheet in the near future. I still think they will then become an acquisition target which could happen not so long after they emerge.
So, that is all for now.
The February MOR is encouraging. However, this only provides a window into the US Tronox operations and does not provide a good picture of what is going on in their European and Asia Pacific business operations, which are not included in the bankruptcy. They are still separate entities. And, their financial performance is not visible to us.
Under bankruptcy, I believe Tronox is holding the earnings from their offshore business units in those companies.
So, the February MOR certainly shows that the US operations are improving quickly.
Here is the good news:
Global titanium dioxide demand is surging around the world. Supply is tight and is now entering a supply crisis not seen since the late 1980's.
Even prices in North America are now starting to move aggressively. Buyers now realize that to secure supply, they have to pay the price. And, even at higer price levels, many buyers are now finding supply of TiO2 is difficult to secure.
Now, the even better news:
Prices for TiO2 in the Asia Pacific region and Middle East Africa and Latin America regions are surging. Prices are now at levels not seen in over 20 years with more signs of increases on the horizon. And, they are going higher over the next 6 months.
The Tronox Tiwest joint venture in Kwinana in Australia which supplies into Asia is now minting money. This will not be noticed in the February MOR, as these earnings are held offshore in their Australian business unit. And, this Australia plant is bringing on 40,000mt of new capacity between now and the end of the year. What a great time to bring on new capacity. Invest in the down cycle and bring on the capacity in the up cycle!
If we really want to see what the Tronox share price should be doing, look at Kronos, symbol KRO. This stock is a more pure TiO2 play, much like Tronox, however, with more presence in Europe and North America.
Out of bankruptcy, Tronox is a much better TiO2 company than Kronos. Tronox shares will soon skyrocket once all of this is understood.
We are entering a time in this industry where pricing power is in the hands of Tronox and other TiO2 producers. And, Tronox will have some of the cleanest low cost producing assets in the world, all chloride technology and no sulphate high cost assets out of bankruptcy.
I think we will see this stock really surge in the June timeframe, so let's all be patient. These MM games will soon end. Restructuring is never easy and takes time, however, we are not more than 3 or 4 months away. We have all waited a long time, so 3 more months should be no big deal.
Sit back, relax, and get ready to make a lot of money!
I refuse accept the trading style on these shares as being representative of the true value of this Company. We always see a spike in trade after non-listed news, and then deterioration shortly afterwards by the market makers. This will soon stop. The fundamentals of this business are strong. I will attempt to give all of you a market summary over the weekend. I am holding all my shares to the end, and I have a LOT of them and have been buying for two years now.
It is now obvious all Tronox shares, A's and B's, are so tightly held to allow the type of trading activity we have observed in recent months.
This WILL soon end.
Hang in there all longs!
The Kwinana assets in Australia are worth a lot. This is a 50%/50% venture between Tronox and Exxaro. It is a very low cost producing plant sitting in the growth region of the world, Asia. They are sold out and raising prices aggressively now.
Also, an expansion at Kwinana by an additional 40,000mt will come on line in Q2. Couldn't happen at a better time. Prices will be even higher by that time. Current capacity at Kwinana is about 110,000 metric tonnes per year, going to 150.000 tonnes.
Botlek is probably more of a break even asset to slightly positive but getting better as prices rise.
Interestingly, I think Tronox has been withholding intercompany receiveables transfer back to Tronox USA due to the bankruptcy. This raises many questions as to why they would be doing this.
Hello to all. I'm back after sticking my head in the sand for a couple of months. All that bid slapping and movement or non-movement of share price with only 100 or 200 share trades was just too much for me to watch each day.
I decided to take leave from all that frustration and the market makers.
But this latest news has pulled me back out of the fox hole!
This is great news and movement in the direction we have been waiting for. It was just a matter of time. Trading on Wednesday will give us some indication on where we will go from here.
Some other good news, the prices for titanium dioxide are moving up sharply in Asia, South America (especially Brazil), and the Middle East. All major producers are experiencing tight supply and demand is strong. There are also price increase announcments out for Q2 in all regions, including Europe and North America.
Tronox will be a very profitable company once all the restructuring is complete. The markets are improving each day and the bond price also reflects this. The last few months have allowed the balance sheet to improve and work in our favour.
Let's hope for some great upside over the next few weeks! Now it's our turn.
Good to be back!
Just shows how tightly held these shares are now!
Everyone just waiting for news.
mac, we need to watch for this same type of action at the end of the close today and in the days ahead. There may be some other pre-arranged trades already in play.
Let's see what happens.
newtech, I have to agree with the comment made by secolton on this. When this many shares move and there is price stability around the 60 cents level, I think we have a pre-arranged sale here that was well-orchestrated. And, we should be looking for more of this to come in the days ahead. I don't think this type of buying and selling is over.
Typically, under pre-arranged sales agreements, a certain number of shares are moved, but with an attempt to maintain share stability. On Thursday's trading, maybe over 1 million shares was pre-arranged, but look how stable the share price was.
So, the next questions: Who is the seller and who is the buyer. My guess is that the seller is one of the top 5 shareholders that is trying to take some big profits with the unknown future of what the EC will achieve, just to be safe. The top holders of this stock were buying up many shares at below 10 cents per share and they were buying even before Tronox declared bankruptcy. So, some big profits were already made.
The buyer? My guess would be a strategic interest who has future intention to acquire some of the assets or the entire Tronox company when it is up for sale in the future...........and Tronox will be up for sale in the future IMO, when the proper asset value can be achieved.
Certainly, buying up the shares at 60 cents may be a much better deal than buying out shareholders at a future date when the stock is at a much higher price level.
So, who would potential strategic buying interests be? In my opinion, Cristal Global, Huntsman and maybe Kronos. Other non-strategic buyers such as private equity players may also be making the this play.
Good news is that more and more parties understand the real value of the remaining assets of Tronox. Let's hope the share price in the days and weeks ahead starts to reflect this. But until we get more information regarding the EC plan, we may be stuck in a trading zone.
The only risk going forward is not knowing what shareholders will be left with in the days ahead, however, as you have noted, our outlook is much better than it was a couple of months ago!
Best regards to all.
Maybe we won't see the alternate EC plan tomorrow, however, we may see an indication that an alternate EC plan is coming and we may see some confirmation of timing of when it will be presented.
The stability and activity of the share movement so far this week is encouraging.
Tomorrow's hearing may provide some news to keep the stock moving, but we will have to see. See link:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0910156/0910156100113000000000001.pdf