The float is low, but if your shares are sitting in a margin account then they are able to be loaned out for someone to short. If you want to ensure your shares can't be loaned out, move them out of a margin account into a regular account.

No, to increase the share price, you would need a reverse split which would significantly decrease the float which is already low. No way they do that.

The nice thing about the ownership structure of SAEI is that a hostile takeover is not possible with over half the shares restricted and owned by insiders. If someone wants to buy us out - they'll have to do it the old fashion way by making a legitimate offer that both parties will agree upon.

SAEI - big news out today on resource estimates. Should be a fun ride from here up til the CC on the 20th!

Looks like there is more there to be determined!

"This initial resource estimate on the Barlevskoye and Vynohradiv Deposit demonstrates that Barlevskoye and Vynohradiv has the potential to be a significant shallow resource and bulk tonnage open pit deposit," said Mr. Andrei B. Yasinskij, Chief Geological Advisor for Supatcha Resources Inc. "This resource does not include the results of our ongoing 20,000 meter drill program which we expect will both add ounces to our resource and demonstrate the continuity of this shallow mineralization. Over the near term, we will continue to accelerate our exploration efforts resulting in an updated and expanded resource calculation in the first quarter of 2011." The Company is releasing assay results as they become available. Supatcha Resources Inc. plans to continue drilling in order to both quickly expand and improve the quality of the existing Barlevskoye and Vynohradiv resource.

DGRI doesn't appear to be a good comparison. very low grade stuff there apparently. they've done nothing for a very long time. SAEI seems to be in a whole different league based on the info available. the report tomorrow should clarify.

the market cap is $4M

A10 - how is the $300M value determined? How many ounces multiplied by what assumed net value per ounce? Thanks, gpg

I agree TB - I think the report definitely comes out - what is in it is the big question and how does the market react. The nice thing about all the attention SAEI has gotten over the past few weeks is that many eyes will be reading that report when it comes out!

When you say over 300 million in proven value, what does that translate into ounces-wise? how do you calculate proven value? TIA

sure hope you are right. i doubled down in the mid .20s. looking like a good move so far, but tomorrow will tell the story!

Here's an interesting read for valuing gold reserves. An analysis was done of companies on the TSX who had filed an NI 43-101. very interesting stuff:

http://investletters.com/blog/how-to-value-a-mining-companies-gold/

http://www.otcequity.com/?p=580

Recent Trading Volatility in Shares of Supatcha Resources, Inc. Generating Investor Activity in Gold Exploration Company
Posted on December 7, 2010 by Editor

The recent trading volatility involving shares of Supatcha Resources Inc. (OTCBB: SAEI) has generated plenty of buzz among investors tracking the gold exploration company but what has caused that volatility remains questionable. According to SAEI, which found it necessary to issue a press release concerning the matter, “it has no explanation” for the unpredictable movement and pledged to “find the cause of this unusual trading activity by every corporate and legal means available.”
Over the past several days the company’s shares have been a breeding ground for shorts as evidenced in the price fluctuation on Friday from a low of 0.37 to a high of 0.67 and again on Monday when shares hit a low of 0.19 while also reaching a high of 0.40. Trading volume has also indicated a strong presence of shorts with more than 9 million shares moving on Friday, 12 million on Monday, and 17 million on Tuesday, well above the 6 million average.

While Supatcha Resources has certainly put out some positive news, including the recent announcement that they had received all necessary paperwork in order to file the NI 43-101 technical report for the Barlevskoye and Vynohradiv gold projects as well as the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire a 50% vested title interest in Balka Skyrokaya gold property located in the Ukraine, there are those who question whether that is enough to spark this kind of rise in volume.

So the question shareholders want to know is whether the rise in Supatcha Resources is based on substance or if it has been manufactured by a PR push by promoters. Much of that could be answered by December 20 when the company holds a conference call to discuss their 2010 third quarter operational update.

SAEI has already acknowledged that they will be “preparing a series of updates that will be released in the coming weeks as part of its Investor Awareness Program” and this could add further volatility as it becomes harder to decipher what is sound information and what is fluff.

What is real is Supatcha’s failure to generate revenue to this point and if the NI 43-101 technical report on Barleyskoye and Vynohradiv gold projects don’t indicate a positive advance toward gold reserves then the company could be in serious trouble. As it stands they hold a 98% interest in Maiskoe Gold Mine, a 90% interest in Barlevskoye and Vynohradiv Gold Mines and the recently announced 50% interest in Balka Skyrokaya Gold Mine.

Fortunately for the company they have been getting plenty of press regarding the NI 43-101 and the estimated $300 million plus in gold at one of their Ukrainian mines. This has certainly boosted investor awareness and while CEO Nikolae Yagodka has stated the company has “been astounded by the sharp decline in our share price over the past year,” he also holds firm to the belief that “Supatcha’s share price has become significantly undervalued based on the strength of the Gold market’s current level and future outlook.”

Assuming there is a strong NI 43-101, which should be filed no later than Thursday, that won’t be the case for very long. If on the other hand they aren’t able to show what they predict and their conference call on December 20 fails to meet expectations then shares could easily tumble down to the same level they sat less than a month ago, right around the 0.03 range. Right now investors have to decide whether this wealth of good news is too good to be true or their opportunity to see tremendous rewards.

This entry was posted in Articles, OTC Bulletin Board and tagged gold exploration, gold mine, gold property, investors, otcbb, penny stocks, promoter, saei, supatcha, volatility. Bookmark the permalink.

A10 - what do you make of today's volume? Given the float, it just seems there had to be some serious churning going on to scare up shares.

unreal volume today. is there some serious churning going on or what?

Thanks for sharing your research on this!

Thanks TBEagl! Best of luck to you too.

TBEagl - sorry can't send a private message. curious as to your take on the report today as well as today's pps action.
thanks,
gpg

Any comments on today's action with SAEI?

I expect we go lower - not sure how much lower. For many, the filing of the NI 43-101 is a big step in legitimaizing the company's potential. Anyone can issue a buyback PR or a conference call PR. The NI report provides much more credibility - it is a significant time and dollar investment - unlike PRs. Assuming the report comes out this week and shows the quality results many are expections/hoping for, then we're off to the races, until then, I think there will be pressure on the share price.

The reality is it is a relatively simple and inexpensive process to issue a PR. If for some reason the report isn't going to be filed tomorrow, the company is prudent to issue a PR clarifying when it can be expected. It would do much to show consideration for shareholders. It is reasonable to expect to hear something tomorrow and I think SAEI management would be wise to not leave shareholders hanging.

I've been to the company webiste and read the write ups on management. There is no mention of any company Mr. Talley or Mr. Lipton have been associated with. Does anyone know of any specific ventures or accomplishment they have made? Any companies they have worked for in the past? Just looking for a track record with specific associations.

I agree on doing your own DD. My position is very small hence the small amount of DD. Yes, I'm trying to catch up here. The board is about sharing DD I thought. That is why many take the time to post here. That is why I am asking if anyone here has spoken with Mr. Talley or Lipton and know anything about them or their accomplishments. Aren't such questions what boards like this are for. Obviously, it is prudent to research and verify anything shared here on your own - which I'm in process of doing.

As much great DD that has been surmassed here on this board, surely someone knows something about Mr. Talley and Mr. Lipton. I've been searching the net all morning and can find nothing other than links to Supatcha's website or PR's where they are quoted. Anything on who these guys are would be appreciated. TIA

Does anyone have any background information on the President - Steve Talley or the newest director Dennis Lipton. At the company website, the experience listed is very generic - no mention of specific companies they've worked with in the past or any notable accomplishments. NOT A BASHER HERE - i bought my first position on Friday - albeit a very small one. Just trying to educate myself a little more on the company and the management team seems to be the best place to start as company credibility is dependent on them first and foremost.

stockraker
in your research, have you had opportunity to talk with anyone in management at SAEI? TIA

Just curious but anyone here who has been here awhile whose had the opportunity to talk to anyone in management with the company - if so, please share your impressions if you don't mind. TIA.

Unless the company wants to see the pps breakdown and do damage to their credibility, they will file by the 5th or come out with a pre-market open PR stating a new release date. If no report on Monday and the company goes dark PR-wise, then no doubt the stock takes a hit. I can't imagine they would allow that at this point - again it not only injures the pps, but their credibility.

I agree with you here. The choice is, the company either has something very, very significant to report to shareholders, or they are a scam. Everything they are telegraphing to shareholders says our company is a major buy. I'm in right now for a small position believing there is good news of great significance to come.

will do. thanks.

Thanks for the PM.
Next week should be interesting for sure.

Reading thru the most recent 10-Q, it appears that the cash on hand to supposedly buy back stock comes from a $5M loan obtained several months back. Any insights as to the credibility of management here - just seems odd to me that they would get a loan to use a few months later to buyback shares.
Not a basher - I have a small position, but am doing a little more indepth DD.

This is from the PR announcing the buyback program:

Acquisitions of stock under the repurchase plan will be made from time to time as permitted by securities laws and other legal requirements, and subject to market conditions and other factors. The repurchase program will be funded by the Company's available cash. The plan will continue as long as periodic management reviews determine it to be fiscally feasible and may be discontinued at any time.


Perhaps this is a wrong assumption, but I would think a company buying back stock would have to follow similar rules that an insider would in buying shares - insiders are definitely limited as to when they can buy or sell. Again, perhaps my assumption is wrong here.

Do you own a position in SAEI? You seem somewhat skeptical - which is probably prudent. If there is anything unsavory going on, it is with the help of management as the recent PRs including the announcement of the buyback have helped support the move up. I have a relatively small stake - hope it pays off in the coming weeks.

I don't think they've bought any back yet either. I suspect the NI report coming out would preclude them.

The share buyback is the equivalent of a large insider buy. Given that insiders own over 50% of the company - by approving a buyback, they are essentially increasing their percentage ownership of the company.

Per their website, 53.3% of this company's stock is owned by insiders. Haven't seen one sell by an insider yet. Given the huge move up over the past few weeks, that is good news indeed. Is there any doubt that the NI report won't be out on Monday? Expectations were set for the 5th by a recent PR - I'd expect the company to clarify if for some reason it won't be released by the 5th.

Do you know if the company has been legally freed up to start their repurchase plan or do you think they are compelled to wait until after the NI report comes out?

Anyone know if the company is able to buyback shares prior to releasing the NI 43-101 report? If this report is as good as some home, I would think it would preclude the company from buying back shares until after the information was out.

For those who've been here a while - any thoughts on the company's management team?