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"NObama, not an educated elite, but a Socialist which will destroy the country."
yay! we need president hockey mom! i bet she can prevent the global economic meltdown with just one hooters wink!
you write: I don't want to get into heavy political comments etc. and am certainly no fan of "the Odd Couple" but I have not been able thus far why Obama refers to the "Middle Class" all the time and never mentions the "Working Class". Maybe it's because they tend not to vote? I thought they represented 80% of the population.
those of the working class generally self-identify as middle class. maybe you're trying to revive the blue collar/white collar distinction, but that distinction seems long dead in politics. the bush years have raised the line dividing the haves and the have-nots.
why "the odd couple"? or are you referring to mccain and president hockey mom?
well of course the buzz this weekend is the news coming out of the IMF and other meetings, with US, UK and european governments launching mammoth bailouts and everyone planning to recapitalize banks by taking direct equity stakes. news now suggests that UK market may be closed monday after the announcement at 7 a.m.
a global coordinated effort, to the tune of 100s of billions per country, with the blessing of economists. that's worth something. maybe.
but to be frank, most of last week was probably due to forced selling - hedge funds, mutual funds, etc. when does that end? i dunno.
if you truly believe the numbers that you are quoting, then you should trade the ABX,
http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/abx.html
those numbers suggest that players are much more pessimistic.
note, even if i were to believe your numbers, or those implied by scenario argued by mccain's plan, one would have to assume that housing prices have bottomed and that it is worthwhile to prop them up at these levels. and with mortgages where they are, credit as tight as it is (and will be far into the future) and a recession looming, that just ain't gonna happen. following housing futures, assume a bottom from between 2010 (california) to 2012 (elsewhere), and then see if that plan still makes sense.
hint: it will end up costing far more than projected and, if anything, will only delay the arrival of the bottom.
"... that scary post of yours ..."
doug noland has been on this story, literally for years, in his "credit bubble bulletin". (google for that, if interested.) unfortunately, everyone who was warning of the problems was relegated to the fringe, and the only ones who were listening were the permabears.
it looks like this capital injection into the banks and gov investment in the markets complete's bush's second term promise of dumping the social security lockbox (such as it is) into the markets.
i'm bullish. moo.
first time i've been able to say that in 8 years.
"Add Barry Ritholtz to the bull camp?"
me too! me too! add me to ur list!
i've been out largely out of the market (except for short and short etfs) since 2006. i'm long about 60% now. in some big old companies i never thought i'd touch ...
either the pendulum swings or the the market collapses.
"the problem right now is the media won't even expose the corruption of the Dems in Congress, most elites think all this is just a head game, don't even think of the consequence of this ... welcome to Socialism ..."
the republicans had FULL CONTROL of congress for 6 years. oftehn they didn't even consult dems on legislation. they rubber stamped everything that came out of the white house. remember, never a single veto. getting all indignant about democrats now is just the rattling of your own cognitive dissonance. what you're seeing now is the consequence of an unchecked executive.
oh, and all the socialism right now is coming from appointees of that executive. well, except that socialists generally nationalize profitable companies. gee, palin says "everyone wants the gov to get out of their way" but all i see is everyone wanting the government to take over the banks and intermediate all transactions.
what the bush years taught us is something simple: rabble rousing speeches, when writ large as government policy, is disasterous. tactics like using gay marriage to try to sell social security privatization is just bad politics.
"My buddies in Iraq do not want to come home until the job is done. They've been coming home for a few weeks every year and then are anxious to join their buddies again back in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Yeah, I remember when I was away at college, I hated to go back home for the summer and always wanted my parents to pay to let me stay. But they made me get a job.
I'm sure we all appreciate these guys, accepting and doing their jobs, but $10 billon a month indefinitely is a big price for it.
re QLD etc
don't these begin trading at 9:45 and end at 4:15?
LG,
I can't do mail here so, some public laundry in response to ur missive:
TJ Parker: my libertarian leanings
If you lean libertarian you wouldn't be leaning toward the Democratic Party...
As a young gay scientist, I can't possibly vote Republican. Life and liberty preceed property.
TJ
'With "eternally grateful" fanboys like you, who needs enemies...LOL'
entirely true. you are a master chartist and i am humbled by your skill. nevertheless, our political differences are probably reflections of generational differences. my libertarian leanings force me to vote with social issues and science, and against my wallet.
"This election will be a landslide to the right......"
hmm.
a mumbling septugenarian and a high-school "educated" creationist, versus an eloquent law professor and a life-long advocate for the middle class.
yeah, maybe you're right.
"To get an idea of just how vile Democrats can be, all one has to do is to watch MSNBC (MSDNC) for a day or so or read some of the political threads on SI and iHub."
didn't you previously storm out of here because of political posts?
msnbc has nothing on faux news.
regarding the GOP: no tent is big enough to hold both libertarianism and fascism. 8 years of elevating the loony tunes to positions of power in the scientific and miliary establishment, of government by deceit ... that has to be enough for anyone ...
"To get an idea of just how vile Democrats can be ..."
you condemn yourself with your own hyperbole.
> institute line-item voting ....
this is a red herring. if congress wanted to do this, every bill could be crafted sufficiently narrowly to have the same effect. if they wanted to avoid line item voting, they'd find ways to entangle individual items to force the issue.
line-item voting or veto removes an essential tool for compromise.
"Government can't solve our problems, government is the problem."
hmm. there used to be a party that said this all the time. then they gained absolute power and they made government bigger and worse than it has ever been.
government has a big mess to clean up before we can send them all home.
"If Bill Clinton hadn't of said that 10-years ago, we'd be sloshing in oil right now and wouldn't have to import as much, if any. No Vision."
if george dumbya bush had had the vision 8 years ago, when he still had a modicum of respect, we'd be 4/5ths the way there.
if alan greensperm hadn't saved us with serial bubble blowing, we wouldn't have financed the massive expansion in india and china that has accelerated the day of reckoning in oil.
if the neocons (soon to be mere "cons") hadn't provoked conflict in iraq, we wouldn't be paying a premium for that in oil, and paying for the war through inflation.
the dirty little secret is that bin laden's demands - u.s. bases out of saudi arabia, higher prices for oil - have been handed to him during george w.'s reign.
"Obama says if you start drilling now you won't see production for 10 years so why bother.
I say if you don't start drilling now then there wont be any gas at the pump in 10 years.
These guys just don't get it!"
if there won't otherwise be gas at the pump in 10 years, then the oil provided by offshore drilling won't make any difference. you're falling into the panic trap - do anything and hope something works.
a far better solution would be to plow under some of those tracts of macmansions in the south and start planting sugar cane en masse.
RCKS's AAPL chart is looking more accurate all the time.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=26227464
aapl has had significant neg money flow since the announcement of the iphone. fundamentally i think its cuz they're not gonna be making much money on iphones any more.
if rasmussen remains a good guide, consumer confidence should surprise with the lowest number ever recorded.
fyi, rasmussen sentiment tracking poll has been a good indictor for direction on consumer sentiment, although scales are different.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index
"But McCain is not much better."
not much better? that's kind.
mccain will be pilloried when his own statements from 2000 are brought back to argue against everything he's now proposing. and when he's forced to articulate, precisely, how he'll pay for it.
"One thing I would like to interject is we are in an election year and I just don't see them letting this thing drop like a rock until we are past the elections. I don't know how they do it but I believe they would interject as much as needed, like they did ahead of 2000 year fears and that election."
hmm. we did *not* drop like a rock before the 2000 elections??
the slope of hope is not bringing the participation of the electorate, and the exuberance of the market of the last few months hasn't filtered down to them. if they want to cheer up America, they'd dump the strategic petroleum reserve on the market.
"My left field guess is McCain will pick a woman VP with financial/economic prowess, a trait that McCain has already contended he does not possess."
sounds like carly fiorinna. that would be a wonderful choice, for obama's campaign.
"Yeah the talking heads talk about climbing a wall of worry ..."
if u can't afford good shoes, the wall of worry looks more and more like a slope of hope.
a bonerfied Diggler?
not to mention that NTAP just did convertibles
moneyflows at this moment make this smell like distribution on the ndx.
so now greenspan joins buffett in foreseeing recession. add to that bill gross, who thinks inflation is understated, meaning that gdp is characterizing inflation as growth, and the chorus gets bigger. when does the market react to this?
i watch these numbers regularly, and that number is not a range for the QQQQ that i'd think of as signficant. note too (by clicking over to "selling on strength") that that number somewhat balanced by selling in AAPL and DELL. AAPL, DELL and HPQ numbers might be big enuf to be significant. but if there was big conviction for a rally, i'd expect to see big numbers in the ETFs, or significant imbalances in QID, QLD, SKF, IWM etc.
just my 85 cents.
while anything is possible, of course, I haven't seen a rally yet that started after QQQQ and XLF showed so strongly in top negative moneyflow:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader
"my first time I ever saw one of those perverts.... Now it is legal to get married in CA... is this a great country or what... Sure wish that fault in SF would hurry up and swallow them up"
me, i'm waiting for all you bigotted boomers to pass, or pass into senility. hey, wanna wager on which of us is the first to head into extinction?
"i think i'd buy that argument before accepting thatt oil is a 'fossil fuel', i think that argument is folly. Like dinosaurs all congregated in various valleys to die and build up a pool of their dead fat that eventually sunk and became oil???"
consider the volume of leaves that accumulates in your backyard each autumn. then multiply that by a hundred million years. then multiply that by some reasonable fraction of 500 million kilometers, the surface area of the earth.
thats a heck of a lot of organic material. more if its plankton.
i'm not a cup and handle kinda guy, so i have only questions. what makes u speculate on that pattern now, rather than say double top at 210? how would the timing of that hook in with the release of a new iphone in june/july?
if aapl is going to 300, qqqq is surely gonna hit a new high. should i believe that? are we going to back to nazdog 5000? maybe all those unemployed folks who can't afford to drive will just spend their time home listening to their ipods?
looking back to my aapl question of a few months ago, this msg pops up. the lines are interesting.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26227464
"Da Boyz have to make the stock market and economy look good, and thus ensure McCain's election."
lol!
consumer sentiment has not tracked the market. it has tracked gas prices. see the daily sentiment surveys at rasmussen.
major terror attack gives the old man his only chance.
"Speaking of triple tops......today the NDX made what I think is the 5th consecutive triple top breakout on the P&F chart, since 3/31."
today was a breakout?? once again, i missed that "mission accomplished" banner.
aapl skews the NDX in a bizarre way. aren't they supposed to reweight these indices?
"Real estate is cooking right now, so maybe all the sideline money will be buying real estate?"
what part of the country are you in??? or do you mean cooking as in semi-boiled frog?
that was all because futures close at 4:15 and goog announced before 4:15.