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Goodluck and goodbye everyone! Two months, 50 trades, and $3500 later I'm completely broke. Hopefully in a few months I'll have some money to be able to try again. I hope everyone here has a joyful 2012. Take care. :)
JOY tomorrow what NFLX did today?
You could be right, I feel daring in my bullish opinion when I'm such a permabear. 157-160 could be a good spot for a turn around. Right now all I'm cheerleading is JOY.
I think GLD is going much higher.
JOY just had 22,582 volume @ 78.17. I think it's short covering. it was on the NBB exchange.
Wow spy down but mcd going up. Curses! Meanwhile NKE almost at 98!! Gold in a steady uptrend.
GRPN 19 Wk1 Puts +200% from last week. Meanwhile MCD tanking, and GLD and NKE soaring. With the grace of the gods they'll all trend the same direction through tomorrow.
NKE, GLD, MCD
Bought NKE 100 weekly calls @.18
Bought GLD 160 weekly calls @.17
Bought MCD 97.5 weekly puts @.12
Wish me luck! I feel like I need it. Will have to take stock tomorrow morning before I can close any trades.
Why do you think Nike is gonna make new all time highs?
MCD is getting slammed with buy volume. Clearly the epic move today was buying MCD calls at 100.06. The range on those options must be enormous.
Lol, yeah. Bottom line is that it's a low volume friday at the end of the year. I doubt we'll see much movement for the market in either direction. Commodities are a different story.
I think anyone with half a brain should be able to figure out we DID have a flat year, and that a range of 1-50 points on the S&P in either direction is meaningless compared to the overall structure of the economy. There is no reason the market can't dump or rally in either direction at noon and head full percentage points.
GRPN down 4% (6%) today as expected. I think it'll be under 19 by next week.
GLD 152 calls went from 5 cents to over 20 cents on the bid this morning. I was so close to buying gold calls yesterday too. Come on silver! Let's rally already!
I sold my puts and vxx calls around 11am. Totally screwed on that play. Looks like silver calls are going to pay off this week and make me some profits.
GRPN new lows. SLV going up. If they both trend in these directions overnight I'll make back todays losses and gleam some profits too.
Bought SLV WK5 27 calls @ .16 & Jan Wk1 28 calls @ .20
Guys - what do you think of GRPN???? It's down today with the market going up. Everyone seems to be bearish going into the first week of January. What about GRPN for puts?
Bought GRPN JanWk1 19 Puts @.30
I think we'll see a few dollars added to VXX and a few shaved from SPY from here. EUR/USD could fail tomorrow hard.
Bought VXX 36 weekly calls @.66. Pretty much did what I told myself I wouldn't do, but my flags are going off and I think volatility is gonna spike through tomorrow and friday.
volatility rising. CNBC is apparently all doom and gloom today. I think VXX Calls for next week might be golden after reassessing the situation.
You think it being up on a down day is a good reason to buy puts? Wouldn't it be better to go long since it shows strength, and if the market goes up it would soar?
MCD Bouncing back. I might try to get back into the short side on the bounce. I think the market will drop lower, but I don't think it will happen with too much volatility, so I'm hesitant to go long on VXX. Maybe I'll do SPY puts, or TNA puts, or just play MCD more, though I'm afraid of MCD because it constantly goes up up up.
No bounce for MCD. Just kept going down independent! @ 99.74 now!
Sold GOOG Puts for a loss. It's holding up too well on the drop off today and looks like its gonna soar. Considering selling MCD puts now for the offsetting gain as well and moving into something else.
Sold MCD 100 weekly put @ .50. Apparently I sold too early. Damn!
VXX looks like it's ready to pop, provided the market drops hard. If we keep getting a slow dribble in either direction VXX will be under 30 fast.
http://cfe.cboe.com/data/CFEMktStat.aspx
F (Jan 12) 25.75 25.90 25.25 25.45 25.45 -0.25 6760 1038 52909
G (Feb 12) 26.40 26.50 26.00 26.20 26.20 -0.20 3321 212 21883
H (Mar 12) 27.40 27.40 26.99 27.20 27.20 -0.25 1000 0 14402
J (Apr 12) 28.45 28.50 27.67 27.90 27.90 -0.25 1087 0 15347
K (May 12) 28.47 28.48 28.10 28.30 28.30 -0.25 885 0 13043
M (Jun 12) 28.90 28.90 28.49 28.70 28.70 -0.25 506 0 7818
N (Jul 12) 29.60 29.70 29.05 29.30 29.35 -0.25 191 0 1851
Q (Aug 12) 29.25 29.40 29.25 29.35 29.30 -0.20 14 0 185
U (Sep 12) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 30.00 0 0 0
I've been trading options for a few years, and I always buy more than one option rather than putting my eggs all in one basket. I always buy out of the money options so I stand to make the most gain on my money, and I almost always hold overnight once I purchase contracts. The trick is knowing when to sell!
Looks like it's starting to roll over.
Right, so I guess the school of thought for UPB's series of trades involves the assumption that the market will make larger moves overnight. I think a pull back makes sense here. Also, wouldn't people be 'taking profits' before the end of the year?
That's the only trade of yours I wouldn't shadow. I try to avoid oil related companies.
I got GOOG 625 W Puts @.75, MCD 100 W Puts @.30, and SPY 121 JAN puts @.91
UPB - you're essentially short on the market this week I guess? I'm starting over this week and am thinking about shadowing your two trades. 100 weekly puts for MCD and 625 weekly puts for Google. Will you be posting your exit points? Do you plan on getting out by tomorrow? There's only 3 days left in the week and its before New Years, you think that we'll be experiencing a mild sell off as opposed to a bit of a rally? Does anyone else have some opinions on the short term direction for the market? MCD and GOOG are both at highs of the day. Shorting them does seem like a good idea but with so few days left I'm a little sketched out.
I feel like tiny tim. Totally screwged.
When I bought my calls PCLN and GS needed the same % to get in the money in the strike prices I was choosing. I went with PCLN instead of GS. Now GS is 15 cents from the money, PCLN, more like 15 dollars. Damn you priceline! Curse my luck! Better luck next year!
EVERYTHING running hard, POT, GS, SPY. PCLN screwed me royally.